Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

Poster presented in the 24th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 24), Budapest, Hungary, June 15-18, 2014.

Handling of Uncertainty in Life Cycle Inventory by Correlated Multivariate Lognormal Distributions: Application to the Design of Supply Chain Networks

In this work, we analyze the effect of incorporating life cycle inventory (LCI) uncertainty on the multi-objective optimization of chemical supply chains (SC) considering simultaneously their economic and environmental performance. To this end, we present a stochastic multi-scenario mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) coupled with a two-step transformation scenario generation algorithm with the unique feature of providing scenarios where the LCI random variables are correlated and each one of them has the desired lognormal marginal distribution. The environmental performance is quantified following life cycle assessment (LCA) principles, which are represented in the model formulation through standard algebraic equations. The capabilities of our approach are illustrated through a case study of a petrochemical supply chain. We show that the stochastic solution improves the economic performance of the SC in comparison with the deterministic one at any level of the environmental impact, and moreover the correlation among environmental burdens provides more realistic scenarios for the decision making process.

Modelling a biomass supply chain through discrete-event simulation

The organizational structure of the companies in the biomass energy sector, regarding the supply chain management services, can be greatly improved through the use of software decision support tools. These tools should be able to provide real-time alternative scenarios when deviations from the initial production plans are observed. To make this possible it is necessary to have representative production chain process models where several scenarios and solutions can be evaluated accurately. Due to its nature, this type of process is more adequately represented by means of event-based models. In particular, this work presents the modelling of a typical biomass production chain using the computing platform SIMEVENTS. Throughout the article details about the conceptual model, as well as simulation results, are provided

The impact of supply chain performance measurement systems on dynamic behaviour in supply chains

The amplification of demand variation up a supply chain widely termed ‘the Bullwhip Effect’ is disruptive, costly and something that supply chain management generally seeks to minimise. Originally attributed to poor system design; deficiencies in policies, organisation structure and delays in material and information flow all lead to sub-optimal reorder point calculation. It has since been attributed to exogenous random factors such as: uncertainties in demand, supply and distribution lead time but these causes are not exclusive as academic and operational studies since have shown that orders and/or inventories can exhibit significant variability even if customer demand and lead time are deterministic. This increase in the range of possible causes of dynamic behaviour indicates that our understanding of the phenomenon is far from complete. One possible, yet previously unexplored, factor that may influence dynamic behaviour in supply chains is the application and operation of supply chain performance measures. Organisations monitoring and responding to their adopted key performance metrics will make operational changes and this action may influence the level of dynamics within the supply chain, possibly degrading the performance of the very system they were intended to measure. In order to explore this a plausible abstraction of the operational responses to the Supply Chain Council’s SCOR® (Supply Chain Operations Reference) model was incorporated into a classic Beer Game distribution representation, using the dynamic discrete event simulation software Simul8. During the simulation the five SCOR Supply Chain Performance Attributes: Reliability, Responsiveness, Flexibility, Cost and Utilisation were continuously monitored and compared to established targets. Operational adjustments to the; reorder point, transportation modes and production capacity (where appropriate) for three independent supply chain roles were made and the degree of dynamic behaviour in the Supply Chain measured, using the ratio of the standard deviation of upstream demand relative to the standard deviation of the downstream demand. Factors employed to build the detailed model include: variable retail demand, order transmission, transportation delays, production delays, capacity constraints demand multipliers and demand averaging periods. Five dimensions of supply chain performance were monitored independently in three autonomous supply chain roles and operational settings adjusted accordingly. Uniqueness of this research stems from the application of the five SCOR performance attributes with modelled operational responses in a dynamic discrete event simulation model. This project makes its primary contribution to knowledge by measuring the impact, on supply chain dynamics, of applying a representative performance measurement system.

Selection of simulation tools for improving supply chain performance

Simulation is an effective method for improving supply chain performance. However, there is limited advice available to assist practitioners in selecting the most appropriate method for a given problem. Much of the advice that does exist relies on custom and practice rather than a rigorous conceptual or empirical analysis. An analysis of the different modelling techniques applied in the supply chain domain was conducted, and the three main approaches to simulation used were identified; these are System Dynamics (SD), Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and Agent Based Modelling (ABM). This research has examined these approaches in two stages. Firstly, a first principles analysis was carried out in order to challenge the received wisdom about their strengths and weaknesses and a series of propositions were developed from this initial analysis. The second stage was to use the case study approach to test these propositions and to provide further empirical evidence to support their comparison. The contributions of this research are both in terms of knowledge and practice. In terms of knowledge, this research is the first holistic cross paradigm comparison of the three main approaches in the supply chain domain. Case studies have involved building ‘back to back’ models of the same supply chain problem using SD and a discrete approach (either DES or ABM). This has led to contributions concerning the limitations of applying SD to operational problem types. SD has also been found to have risks when applied to strategic and policy problems. Discrete methods have been found to have potential for exploring strategic problem types. It has been found that discrete simulation methods can model material and information feedback successfully. Further insights have been gained into the relationship between modelling purpose and modelling approach. In terms of practice, the findings have been summarised in the form of a framework linking modelling purpose, problem characteristics and simulation approach.

Simulation in the supply chain context:matching the simulation tool to the problem

The supply chain can be a source of competitive advantage for the firm. Simulation is an effective tool for investigating supply chain problems. The three main simulation approaches in the supply chain context are System Dynamics (SD), Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and Agent Based Modelling (ABM). A sample from the literature suggests that whilst SD and ABM have been used to address strategic and planning problems, DES has mainly been used on planning and operational problems., A review of received wisdom suggests that historically, driven by custom and practice, certain simulation techniques have been focused on certain problem types. A theoretical review of the techniques, however, suggests that the scope of their application should be much wider and that supply chain practitioners could benefit from applying them in this broader way.

Reconfiguration of supply chain network:an ISM-based roadmap to performance

Purpose: Short product life cycle and/or mass customization necessitate reconfiguration of operational enablers of supply chain (SC) from time to time in order to harness high levels of performance. The purpose of this paper is to identify the key operational enablers under stochastic environment on which practitioner should focus while reconfiguring a SC network. Design/methodology/approach: The paper used interpretive structural modeling (ISM) approach that presents a hierarchy-based model and the mutual relationships among the enablers. The contextual relationship needed for developing structural self-interaction matrix (SSIM) among various enablers is realized by conducting experiments through simulation of a hypothetical SC network. Findings: The research identifies various operational enablers having a high driving power towards assumed performance measures. In this regard, these enablers require maximum attention and of strategic importance while reconfiguring SC. Practical implications: ISM provides a useful tool to the SC managers to strategically adopt and focus on the key enablers which have comparatively greater potential in enhancing the SC performance under given operational settings. Originality/value: The present research realizes the importance of SC flexibility under the premise of reconfiguration of the operational units in order to harness high value of SC performance. Given the resulting digraph through ISM, the decision maker can focus the key enablers for effective reconfiguration. The study is one of the first efforts that develop contextual relations among operational enablers for SSIM matrix through integration of discrete event simulation to ISM. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Life cycle assessment in the food supply chain:a case study

This research aims at assessing the environmental impact of the poultry supply chain from cradle to grave using case study research and also life cycle assessment (LCA). While a limited number of generic poultry production LCA studies have been published, fewer yet assess the whole process of a specific organisation, none comparing the increased impact of further processing. Our results show that irrespectively of the impact assessment method utilised, the process of producing portions is considerably higher in total environmental impact due to the extra raw material required to produce the same mass into retail. Our research contributes to the growing number of LCA studies and could be used by practitioners for comparison against national and international averages. From a theoretical point of view, this research provides new insights into the relationship between vertically integrated supply chains and environmental performance which has not been examined in the past.

A knowledge driven approach towards the validation of externally acquired traceability datasets in supply chain business processes

The sharing of near real-time traceability knowledge in supply chains plays a central role in coordinating business operations and is a key driver for their success. However before traceability datasets received from external partners can be integrated with datasets generated internally within an organisation, they need to be validated against information recorded for the physical goods received as well as against bespoke rules defined to ensure uniformity, consistency and completeness within the supply chain. In this paper, we present a knowledge driven framework for the runtime validation of critical constraints on incoming traceability datasets encapuslated as EPCIS event-based linked pedigrees. Our constraints are defined using SPARQL queries and SPIN rules. We present a novel validation architecture based on the integration of Apache Storm framework for real time, distributed computation with popular Semantic Web/Linked data libraries and exemplify our methodology on an abstraction of the pharmaceutical supply chain.