Effect of water quality and season on the population dynamics of Cabomba caroliniana in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

Effect of water quality and season on the population dynamics of Cabomba caroliniana in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Cabomba caroliniana is a submersed aquatic macrophyte that originates from the Americas and is currently invading temperate, subtropical, and tropical freshwater habitats around the world. Despite being a nuisance in many countries, little is known about its ecology. We monitored C. caroliniana populations in three reservoirs in subtropical Queensland, Australia, over 5.5 years. Although biomass, stem length, and plant density of the C. caroliniana stands fluctuated over time, they did not exhibit clear seasonal patterns. Water depth was the most important environmental factor explaining C. caroliniana abundance. Plant biomass was greatest at depths from 2–4 m and rooted plants were not found beyond 5 m. Plant density was greatest in shallow water and decreased with depth, most likely as a function of decreasing light and increasing physical stress. We tested the effect of a range of water physico-chemical parameters. The concentration of phosphorus in the water column was the variable that explained most of the variation in C. caroliniana population parameters. We found that in subtropical Australia, C. caroliniana abundance does not appear to be affected by seasonal conditions but is influenced by other environmental variables such as water depth and nutrient loading. Therefore, further spread will more likely be governed by local habitat rather than climatic conditions.

Population dynamics of blue mussels in a variable environment at the edge of their range

Spatial and temporal variation in the abundance of species can often be ascribed to spatial and temporal variation in the surrounding environment. Knowledge of how biotic and abiotic factors operate over different spatial and temporal scales in determining distribution, abundance, and structure of populations lies at the heart of ecology. The major part of the current ecological theory stems from studies carried out in central parts of the distributional range of species, whereas knowledge of how marginal populations function is inadequate. Understanding how marginal populations, living at the edge of their range, function is however in a key position to advance ecology and evolutionary biology as scientific disciplines. My thesis focuses on the factors affecting dynamics of marginal populations of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) living close to their tolerance limits with regard to salinity. The thesis aims to highlight the dynamics at the edge of the range and contrast these with dynamics in more central parts of the range in order to understand the potential interplay between the central and the marginal part in the focal system. The objectives of the thesis are approached by studies on: (1) factors affecting regional patterns of the species, (2) long-term temporal dynamics of the focal species spaced along a regional salinity gradient, (3) selective predation by increasing populations of roach (Rutilus rutilus) when feeding on their main food item, the blue mussel, (4) the primary and secondary effects of local wave exposure gradients and (5) the role of small-scale habitat heterogeneity as determinants of large-scale pattern. The thesis shows that populations of blue mussels are largely determined by large scale changes in sea water salinity, affecting mainly recruitment success and longevity of local populations. In opposite to the traditional view, the thesis strongly indicate that vertebrate predators strongly affect abundance and size structure of blue mussel populations, and that the role of these predators increases towards the margin where populations are increasingly top-down controlled. The thesis also indicates that the positive role of biogenic habitat modifiers increases towards the marginal areas, where populations of blue mussels are largely recruitment limited. Finally, the thesis shows that local blue mussel populations are strongly dependent on high water turbulence, and therefore, dense populations are constrained to offshore habitats. Finally, the thesis suggests that ongoing sedimentation of rocky shores is detrimental for the species, affecting recruitment success and post-recruit survival, pushing stable mussel beds towards offshore areas. Ongoing large scale changes in the Baltic Sea, especially dilution processes with attendant effects, are predicted to substantially contract the distributional range of the mussel, but also affect more central populations. The thesis shows that in order to understand the functioning of marginal populations, research should (1) strive for multi-scale approaches in order to link ecosystem patterns with ecosystem processes, and (2) challenge the prevailing tenets that origin from research carried out in central areas that may not be valid at the edge.

Conceptual and statistical modelling of environmental effects in population dynamics

Population dynamics are generally viewed as the result of intrinsic (purely density dependent) and extrinsic (environmental) processes. Both components, and potential interactions between those two, have to be modelled in order to understand and predict dynamics of natural populations; a topic that is of great importance in population management and conservation. This thesis focuses on modelling environmental effects in population dynamics and how effects of potentially relevant environmental variables can be statistically identified and quantified from time series data. Chapter I presents some useful models of multiplicative environmental effects for unstructured density dependent populations. The presented models can be written as standard multiple regression models that are easy to fit to data. Chapters II IV constitute empirical studies that statistically model environmental effects on population dynamics of several migratory bird species with different life history characteristics and migration strategies. In Chapter II, spruce cone crops are found to have a strong positive effect on the population growth of the great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major), while cone crops of pine another important food resource for the species do not effectively explain population growth. The study compares rate- and ratio-dependent effects of cone availability, using state-space models that distinguish between process and observation error in the time series data. Chapter III shows how drought, in combination with settling behaviour during migration, produces asymmetric spatially synchronous patterns of population dynamics in North American ducks (genus Anas). Chapter IV investigates the dynamics of a Finnish population of skylark (Alauda arvensis), and point out effects of rainfall and habitat quality on population growth. Because the skylark time series and some of the environmental variables included show strong positive autocorrelation, the statistical significances are calculated using a Monte Carlo method, where random autocorrelated time series are generated. Chapter V is a simulation-based study, showing that ignoring observation error in analyses of population time series data can bias the estimated effects and measures of uncertainty, if the environmental variables are autocorrelated. It is concluded that the use of state-space models is an effective way to reach more accurate results. In summary, there are several biological assumptions and methodological issues that can affect the inferential outcome when estimating environmental effects from time series data, and that therefore need special attention. The functional form of the environmental effects and potential interactions between environment and population density are important to deal with. Other issues that should be considered are assumptions about density dependent regulation, modelling potential observation error, and when needed, accounting for spatial and/or temporal autocorrelation.

Habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Scandinavia

Large carnivore populations are currently recovering from past extirpation efforts and expanding back into their original habitats. At the same time human activities have resulted in very few wilderness areas left with suitable habitats and size large enough to maintain populations of large carnivores without human contact. Consequently the long-term future of large carnivores depends on their successful integration into landscapes where humans live. Thus, understanding their behaviour and interaction with surrounding habitats is of utmost importance in the development of management strategies for large carnivores. This applies also to brown bears (Ursus arctos) that were almost exterminated from Scandinavia and Finland at the turn of the century, but are now expanding their range with the current population estimates being approximately 2600 bears in Scandinavia and 840 in Finland. This thesis focuses on the large-scale habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia with the objective to develop modelling approaches that support the management of bear populations. Habitat analysis shows that bear home ranges occur mainly in forested areas with a low level of human influence relative to surrounding areas. Habitat modelling based on these findings allows identification and quantification of the potentially suitable areas for bears in Scandinavia. Additionally, this thesis presents novel improvements to home range estimation that enable realistic estimates of the effective area required for the bears to establish a home range. This is achieved through fitting to the radio-tracking data to establish the amount of temporal autocorrelation and the proportion of time spent in different habitat types. Together these form a basis for the landscape-level management of the expanding population. Successful management of bears requires also assessment of the consequences of harvest on the population viability. An individual-based simulation model, accounting for the sexually selected infanticide, was used to investigate the possibility of increasing the harvest using different hunting strategies, such as trophy harvest of males. The results indicated that the population can sustain twice the current harvest rate. However, harvest should be changed gradually while carefully monitoring the population growth as some effects of increased harvest may manifest themselves only after a time-delay. The results and methodological improvements in this thesis can be applied to the Finnish bear population and to other large carnivores. They provide grounds for the further development of spatially-realistic management-oriented models of brow bear dynamics that can make projections of the future distribution of bears while accounting for the development of human activities.

Population Dynamics of Cyrtobagous salviniae on Common Salvinia in South Florida

Common salvinia (Salvinia minima Baker) is an exotic floating fern that has been in the U.S. from at least 1928(Small 1931). Its pest status in Florida is less clear perhaps due to the presence of the specialized herbivore Cyrtobagous salviniae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae). Our objective was to sample populations of adult C. salviniae in south Florida in order to assess temporal abundance and estimate density on common salvinia. (PDF has 4 pages.)

Toxic pollutants, health indices and population dynamics of Harbor Seals in San Francisco Bay, 1989-1992

(PDF contains 300 pages)

Reproduction, movements, and population dynamics of the southern kingfish, Menticirrhus americanus, in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico

Menlicirrhus americanus in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico mature at 150-220 mm TL and 12-14 months of age, with males maturing when 10-40 mm smaller than females. Spawning occurs within a broad period from February through November with two discrete peaks which coincide with the periodicity of downcoast alongshore currents (towards Mexico) in spring and fall. This species occurs at depths of less than 5 to 27 m, being most abundant at 5 m or shallower. Young-of-the-year recruit primarily at 5-9 m or shallower and gradually expand their bathymetric range. Age determination by length frequency is feasible in M. americanus but not as simple as in species that spawn in one major period of the year. Only one or two spawned groups normally predominated at anyone time and no more than three co-occurred with few possible exceptions. Observed mean sizes were 138 mm TL at 6 months, and 192 and 272 mm at ages I and II, respectively. Typical maximum size was 296-308 mm and typical maximum age is probably 2-3 years. The largest fISh captured were 392 and 455 mm. Observed sex ratio was 1.2 females to 1 male. Weight, girth, and length-length regressions are presented.(PDF file contains 27 pages.)

Population dynamics of the anchoveta, Cetengraulis mysticetus, in the Gulf of Panama, as determined by tagging experiments

ENGLISH: The anchoveta is the major constituent of the important bait and reduction fisheries of the Gulf of Panama. It is a short-lived species, the great majority of the catch consisting of fish in their first year of life. Fish for reduction are caught chiefly in the Isla Verde area, between Punta Chame and the entrance of the Panama Canal. In 1960 and 1961 anchovetas were tagged with metal internal tags and released in the major areas of occurrence of this species. The tags were recovered from the meal in the reduction plants with magnets. From the 53,380 fish tagged in 1960, 745 tags were returned during the 1960 season, 246 during the 1961 season, and 8 during the 1962 season. From the 113,202 tagged in 1961, 373 tags were returned during the 1961 season and 48 during the 1962 season. Complete catch statistics are available, and length-frequency and length-weight data were used to convert these from pounds to numbers of fish of each year class. The annual survival rate for the fish of the 1959 year class in the Isla Verde area was estimated to be 0.086 by the Chapman-Robson method, 0.102 by the year-class method, and 0.088 by the Jackson positive method. The first method is considered to give the best estimate. Six estimates of the population of fish of the 1959 year class in the Isla Verde area were obtained from the sample tag ratios of six experiments conducted in that area in 1960. The estimates differed due to the temporal decrease in the population, but the downward trend corresponded fairly well to what was expected from the total annual mortality rate. It was estimated that the population of 1959-year class fish was about 818 million on March 8, 1960, and about 70 million on March 8, 1961. As the population of anchovetas decreases during the season the effort increases sufficiently that the catch remains roughly constant. This is described as the "constant absolute catch" type fishery. Of the original population of fish in the Isla Verde area at the beginning of the 1960 season, about 11 per cent were caught and 81 per cent died of natural causes. Evaluation of growth and mortality data demonstrated that beginning the fishery for the youngest age group later than March 8 (the date it began in 1960) would reduce the yield per recruit, while increasing the fishing effort would greatly increase it. Further, it is believed unlikely that increases in the catch in the Isla Verde area alone would noticeably decrease the number of recruits to that area. Therefore there is no foreseeable need for regulation of the fishery. SPANISH: El principal constituyente de la importante pesquería para carnada y para reducción en el Golfo de Panamá es la anchoveta. Es una especie de vida corta cuya pesca, en su mayor parte, está constituida por peces que se encuentran en su primer año de vida. Para la industria de reducción los peces son capturados principalmente en el área de Isla Verde, entre Punta Chame y la entrada del Canal de Panamá. En 1960 y 1961 las anchovetas fueron marcadas con marcas metálicas internas y liberadas en las áreas más importantes en que se encuentra esta especie. Las marcas fueron recobradas de la harina en las plantas de reducción por medio de magnetos. De los 53,380 peces marcados en 1960, fueron devueltas 745 marcas durante la temporada pesquera de 1960, 246 durante la de 1961, y 8 durante la de 1962. De los 113,202 marcados en 1961, 373 marcas fueron devueltas durante la temporada pesquera de 1961 y 48 durante la de 1962. Se dispone de estadísticas completas de captura, y los datos de frecuencia-longitud y de longitud-peso fueron usados para convertir éstos de libras a números de peces de cada clase anual. La tasa anual de supervivencia correspondiente a la clase anual de 1959 en el área de Isla Verde estimó en 0.086 por medio del método Chapman-Robson; en 0.102 por método de la clase anual; y en 0.088 por el método positivo de Jackson. Se considera que el primer método dé la mejor estimación. Seis estimaciones de la población de peces de la clase anual 1959 en el área de Isla Verde fueron obtenidas según la proporción de marcas halladas en las muestras correspondientes a seis experimentos efectuados en aquella área en 1960. Las estimaciones variaron debido a la disminución temporal de la población, pero esta tendencia descendente correspondió bastante bien a lo que se esperaba según la tasa total de mortalidad anual. Se estimó que la población de peces de la clase anual de 1959 era de unos 818 millones el 8 de marzo de 1960, y aproximadamente de unos 70 millones el 8 de marzo de 1961. Conforme a que la población de anchovetas disminuye durante la temporada pesquera, el esfuerzo aumenta lo suficientemente como para que la pesca se mantenga más o menos constante. Este es el tipo de pesquería descrito como de "captura absoluta constante". De la población original de peces en el área de Isla Verde al comienzo de la temporada pesquera de 1960, cerca del 11 por ciento fue capturada y el 81 por ciento murió por causas naturales. La evaluación de los datos del crecimiento mortalidad demostraron que al comenzar la pesquería a explotar grupo de edad más joven en una fecha posterior al 8 de marzo (la fecha en que comenzó en 1960) se reduciría el rendimiento por recluta, mientras que al aumentar el esfuerzo de pesca lo aumentaría considerablemente. Más aún, se cree improbable que el aumento en la pesca en el área de Isla Verde de por sí disminuyera perceptiblemente el número de reclutas en esa área. En consecuencia no se prevé la necesidad de una reglamentación de la pesquería. (PDF contains 172 pages.)

Population dynamics of the skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Catches of skipjack tuna supporting major fisheries in parts of the western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean have increased in recent years; thus, it is important to examine the dynamics of the fishery to determine man's effect on the abundance of the stocks. A general linear hypothesis model was developed to standardize fishing effort to a single vessel size and gear type. Standardized effort was then used to compute an index of abundance which accounts for seasonal variability in the fishing area. The indices of abundance were highly variable from year to year in both the northern and southern areas of the fishery but indicated a generally higher abundance in the south. Data from 438 fish tagged and recovered in the eastern Pacific Ocean were used to compute growth curves. A least-squares technique was used to estimate the parameters of the von Bertalanffy growth function. Two estimates of the parameters were made by analyzing the same data in different ways. For the first set of estimates, K= 0.819 on an annual instantaneous basis and L= 729 mm; for the second, K = 0.431 and L=881. These compared well with estimates derived using the Chapman-Richards growth function, which includes the von Bertalanffy function as a special case. It was concluded that the latter function provided an adequate empirical fit to the skipjack data since the more complicated function did not significantly improve the fit. Tagging data from three cruises involving 8852 releases and 1777 returns were used to compute mortality rates during the time the fish were in the fishery. Two models were used in the analyses. The best estimates of the catchability coefficient (q) in the north and south were 8.4 X 10- 4 and 5.0 X 10- 5 respectively. The other loss rate (X), which included losses due to emigration, natural mortality and mortality due to carrying a tag, was 0.14 on an annual instantaneous basis for both areas. To detect the possible effect of fishing on abundance and total yield, the relation between abundance and effort and between total catch and effort was examined. It was found that at levels of intensity observed in the fishery, fishing does not appear to have had any measurable effect on the stocks. It was concluded therefore that the total catch could probably be increased by substantially increasing total effort beyond the present level, and that the fluctuations in abundance are fishery-independent. The estimates of growth, mortality and fishing effort were used to compute yield-per-recruitment isopleths for skipjack in both the northern and southern areas. For a size at first entry of about 425 mm, the yield per recruitment was calculated at 3 pounds in the north and 1.5 pounds in the south. In both areas it would be possible to increase the yield per recruitment by increasing fishing effort. It was not possible to assess potential production of the skipjack stocks fished in the eastern Pacific, except to note that the fishery had not affected their abundance and that they were certainly under-exploited. It was concluded that the northern and southern stocks could support increased harvests, especially the latter. SPANISH: Las capturas de atún barrilete que sostienen las pesquerías principales de la parte occidental, central y oriental del Océano Pacífico han aumentado en los últimos años; así que es importante examinar la dinámica de la pesquería para determinar el efecto que pueda tener sobre la abundancia de los stocks. Se desarrolló un modelo hipotético, lineal para standardizar el esfuerzo de pesca a un solo tamaño de barco y tipo de arte. Luego se usó el esfuerzo standardizado para computar un índice de la abundancia que pueda dar razón de la variabilidad estacional en el área de pesca. Los índices de la abundancia variaron mucho de un año a otro tanto en el área septentrional como en el área meridional de la pesquería, pero indicaron una abundancia generalmente superior en el sur. Se emplearon los datos de 438 peces marcados y recuperados en el Océano Pacífico oriental para computar las curvas de crecimiento. Una técnica de mínimos cuadrados fue usada para estimar los parámetros de la función de crecimiento de van Bertalanffy. Se hicieron dos estimativos de los parámetros mediante el análisis de los mismos datos, de diferente manera. Para el primer juego de estimativos, K=0.819 sobre una base anual instantánea y L∞=729 mm; para el segundo, K=0.431 y L∞=881. Estos se correlacionaron bien con los estimativos obtenidos usando la función de crecimiento de Chapman-Richards, que incluye la de von Bertalanffy como un caso especial. Se decidió que la última función proveía un ajuste empírico, adecuado a los datos del barrilete, ya que la función más complicada no mejoró significativamente el ajuste. Los datos de marcación de tres cruceros incluyendo 8852 liberaciones y 1777 retornos, fueron usados para computar las tasas de mortalidad durante el tiempo en que los peces estuvieron en la pesquería. Se usaron dos modelos en los análisis. Los mejores estimativos del coeficiente de capturabilidad (q) en el norte y en el sur fueron 8.4 X 10-4 y 5.0 X 10-5 , respectivamente. La otra tasa de pérdida (X), la cual incluyó pérdidas debidas a la emigración, mortalidad natural y mortalidad debida a llevar una marca, fue 0.14 sobre una base anual instantánea para las dos áreas. Con el fin de descubrir el efecto que posiblemente pueda tener la pesca sobre la abundancia y el rendimiento total, se examinó la relación entre la abundancia y el esfuerzo y entre la captura total y el esfuerzo. Se encontró que a los niveles de la intensidad observada en la pesquería, la pesca no parece haber tenido ningún efecto perceptible en los stocks. Por lo tanto se decidió que mediante un aumento substancial del esfuerzo total, más allá del nivel actual, la captura total probablemente podría aumentarse, y que las fluctuaciones de la abundancia son independientes de la pesquería. Los estimativos del crecimiento, mortalidad y esfuerzo de pesca fueron usados para computar las isopletas del rendimiento por recluta del barrilete, tanto en las áreas del norte como del sur. Para una talla de primera entrada de unos 425 mm, el rendimiento por recluta fue calculado en 3 libras en el norte y 1.5 libras en el sur. En ambas áreas sería posible aumentar el rendimiento por recluta mediante un aumento del esfuerzo de pesca. No fue posible determinar la producción potencial de los stocks del barrilete pescado en el Pacífico oriental, excepto para observar que la pesquería no ha afectado su abundancia y que ciertamente se encuentran subexplotados. Se concluyó que los stocks norte y sur pueden soportar un aumento en el rendimiento, especialmente este último. (PDF contains 274 pages.)