Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Factors required for the uridylylation of the foot-and-mouth disease virus 3B1, 3B2, and 3B3 peptides by the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D(pol)) in vitro

The 5' terminus of picornavirus genomic RNA is covalently linked to the virus-encoded peptide 313 (VTg). Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is unique in encoding and using 3 distinct forms of this peptide. These peptides each act as primers for RNA synthesis by the virus-encoded RNA polymerase 3D(pol). To act as the primer for positive-strand RNA synthesis, the 3B peptides have to be uridylylated to form VPgpU(pU). For certain picornaviruses, it has been shown that this reaction is achieved by the 3D(pol) in the presence of the 3CD precursor plus an internal RNA sequence termed a cis-acting replication element (cre). The FMDV ere has been identified previously to be within the 5' untranslated region, whereas all other picornavirus cre structures are within the viral coding region. The requirements for the in vitro uridylylation of each of the FMDV 313 peptides has now been determined, and the role of the FMDV ere (also known as the 3B-uridylylation site, or bus) in this reaction has been analyzed. The poly(A) tail does not act as a significant template for FMDV 3B uridylylation.

Efficient production of foot-and-mouth disease virus empty capsids in insect cells following down regulation of 3C protease activity

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a significant economically and distributed globally pathogen of Artiodactyla. Current vaccines are chemically inactivated whole virus particles that require large-scale virus growth in strict bio-containment with the associated risks of accidental release or incomplete inactivation. Non-infectious empty capsids are structural mimics of authentic particles with no associated risk and constitute an alternate vaccine candidate. Capsids self-assemble from the processed virus structural proteins, VP0, VP3 and VP1, which are released from the structural protein precursor P1-2A by the action of the virus-encoded 3C protease. To date recombinant empty capsid assembly has been limited by poor expression levels, restricting the development of empty capsids as a viable vaccine. Here expression of the FMDV structural protein precursor P1-2A in insect cells is shown to be efficient but linkage of the cognate 3C protease to the C-terminus reduces expression significantly. Inactivation of the 3C enzyme in a P1-2A-3C cassette allows expression and intermediate levels of 3C activity resulted in efficient processing of the P1-2A precursor into the structural proteins which assembled into empty capsids. Expression was independent of the insect host cell background and leads to capsids that are recognised as authentic by a range of anti-FMDV bovine sera suggesting their feasibility as an alternate vaccine.

Structure-based energetics of protein interfaces guides foot-and-mouth disease virus vaccine design

Virus capsids are primed for disassembly, yet capsid integrity is key to generating a protective immune response. Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) capsids comprise identical pentameric protein subunits held together by tenuous noncovalent interactions and are often unstable. Chemically inactivated or recombinant empty capsids, which could form the basis of future vaccines, are even less stable than live virus. Here we devised a computational method to assess the relative stability of protein-protein interfaces and used it to design improved candidate vaccines for two poorly stable, but globally important, serotypes of FMDV: O and SAT2. We used a restrained molecular dynamics strategy to rank mutations predicted to strengthen the pentamer interfaces and applied the results to produce stabilized capsids. Structural analyses and stability assays confirmed the predictions, and vaccinated animals generated improved neutralizing-antibody responses to stabilized particles compared to parental viruses and wild-type capsids.

Development and evaluation of an ELISA for the detection and 3D antibodies to foot and mouth disease virus

A group specific ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) was developed to detect virus infection associated antibodies in the serum of animals infected with any serotype of foot and mouth disease virus. The assay was developed from non-infectious sources, and is therefore suitable for use in countries where FMDV is exotic.

Early protection in sheep against intratypic heterologous challenge with serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus using high-potency, emergency vaccine

In 2009-2011, spread of a serotype O foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) belonging to the South East Asia topotype led to the culling of over 3.5 million cattle and pigs in Japan and Korea. The O1 Manisa vaccine (belonging to the Middle East-South Asian topotype) was used at high potency in Korea to limit the expansion of the outbreak. However, no data are available on the spread of this virus or the efficacy of the O1 Manisa vaccine against this virus in sheep. In this study, the early protection afforded with a high potency (>6 PD50) FMD O1 Manisa vaccine against challenge with the O/SKR/2010 virus was tested in sheep. Sheep (n=8) were vaccinated 4 days prior to continuous direct-contact challenge with donor sheep. Donor sheep were infected with FMDV O/SKR/2010 by coronary band inoculation 24h prior to contact with the vaccinated animals, or unvaccinated controls (n=4). Three of the four control sheep became infected, two clinically. All eight O1 Manisa vaccinated sheep were protected from clinical disease. None had detectable antibodies to FMDV non-structural proteins (3ABC), no virus was isolated from nasal swabs, saliva or oro-pharyngeal fluid and none became carriers. Using this model of challenge, sheep were protected against infection as early as 4 days post vaccination.

Foot-and-mouth disease in red deer - experimental infection and test methods performance

Summary: The aim of this study was to evaluate a number of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) test methods for use in red deer. Ten animals were intranasally inoculated with the FMD virus (FMDV) O UKG 11/2001, monitored for clinical signs, and samples taken regularly (blood, serum, oral swabs, nasal swabs, probang samples and lesion swabs, if present) over a 4-week period. Only one animal, deer 1103, developed clinical signs (lesions under the tongue and at the coronary band of the right hind hoof). It tested positive by 3D and IRES real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) in various swabs, lesion materials and serum. In a non-structural protein (NSP) in-house ELISA (NSP-ELISA-IH), one commercial ELISA (NSP-ELISA-PR) and a commercial antibody NSP pen side test, only deer 1103 showed positive results from day post-inoculation (dpi) 14 onwards. Two other NSP-ELISAs detected anti-NSP serum antibodies with lower sensitivity. It also showed rising antibody levels in the virus neutralization test (VNT), the in-house SPO-ELISA-IH and the commercial SPO-ELISA-PR at dpi 9, and in another two commercial SPO-ELISAs at dpi 12 (SPO-ELISA-IV) and dpi 19 (SPO-ELISA-IZ), respectively. Six of the red deer that had been rRT-PCR and antibody negative were re-inoculated intramuscularly with the same O-serotype FMDV at dpi 14. None of these animals became rRT-PCR or NSP-ELISA positive, but all six animals became positive in the VNT, the in-house SPO-ELISA-IH and the commercial SPO-ELISA-PR. Two other commercial SPO-ELISAs were less sensitive or failed to detect animals as positive. The rRT-PCRs and the four most sensitive commercial ELISAs that had been used for the experimentally inoculated deer were further evaluated for diagnostic specificity (DSP) using 950 serum samples and 200 nasal swabs from non-infected animals. DSPs were 100% for the rRT-PCRs and between 99.8 and 100% for the ELISAs.

Experimental foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in white tailed deer

White tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) were inoculated with foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) O UKG 11/2001 and monitored for the development of clinical signs, histopathological changes and levels of virus replication. All FMDV-infected deer developed clinical signs starting at 2 days post inoculation and characterized by an increase in body temperature, increased salivation and lesions in the mouth and on the feet. Virus spread to various tissues was determined by quantifying the amount of FMDV RNA using quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Virus or viral antigen was also detected in tissues using traditional isolation techniques, enzyme linked immunosorbent assay and immunohistochemistry. Deer-to-cattle transmission of the virus was observed in this experimental setting; however, inoculated deer were not found to become carriers of FMDV.

Application of the Ceditest® FMDV type O and FMDV-NS enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays for detection of antibodies against foot-and-mouth disease virus in selected livestock and wildlife species in Uganda

Diagnosis and control of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) requires rapid and sensitive diagnostic tests. Two antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits, Ceditest® FMDV-NS for the detection of antibodies against the nonstructural proteins of all FMDV serotypes and Ceditest® FMDV type O for the detection of antibodies against serotype O, were evaluated under African endemic conditions where the presence of multiple serotypes and the use of nonpurified vaccines complicate serological diagnosis. Serum samples from 218 African buffalo, 758 cattle, 304 goats, and 88 sheep were tested using both kits, and selected samples were tested not only in serotype-specific ELISAs for antibodies against primarily FMDV serotype O, but also against other serotypes. The FMDV-NS assay detected far more positive samples (93%) than the FMDV type O assay (30%) in buffalo (P < 0.05), with predominant antibodies against the South African Territories (SAT) serotypes, while the seroprevalence was generally comparable in cattle with antibodies against serotype O elicited by infection and/or vaccination. However, some districts had higher seroprevalence using the FMDV type O assay indicating vaccination without infection, while 1 cattle herd with antibodies against the SAT serotypes had far more positive samples (85%) using the FMDV-NS versus the FMDV type O (10%), consistent with the latter test's lower sensitivity for antibodies against SAT serotypes. Based on the current investigation, the FMDV type O ELISA may be limited by the presence of SAT serotypes. The FMD NS assay worked well as a screening test for antibodies against all FMDV serotypes present in Uganda; however, as long as nonpurified vaccines are applied in the region, this test cannot be used to differentiate between vaccinated and infected animals.

Foot-and-mouth disease in tropical wildlife

This review of foot-and-mouth disease in cloven-hoofed, free-living animals, describes the disease, the wide range of the hosts, the carrier state, and the interrelationship between disease in domestic livestock and wildlife. This information becomes even more crucial to the development of control strategies when linked to the process of pathogenesis and the epidemiology of the disease.

Extensive antigenic and genetic variation among foot-and-mouth disease type A viruses isolated from the 1994 and 1995 foci in São Paulo, Brazil

Nine foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) type A isolates recovered from the field FMD foci in São Paulo State, Brazil, during 1994 and 1995 (a period preceding the last reported focus of FMD in 1996 in this state) were compared among themselves and with the reference vaccine strain A(24)Cruzeiro. The techniques used were sandwich ELISA, virus neutralization (VN), polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (PAGE) of the structural polypeptides and direct sequencing of the VP1-coding region (1D gene). Results of VN were recorded as serological relationships R and those from ELISA were expressed as percentage of the homologous reaction r. ELISA and VN gave comparable results (correlation coefficient, 0.936) allowing assignment of these field viruses to four groups which were distinct from the A(24)Cruzeiro strain. PAGE and ID nucleotide sequencing were also able to distinguish between these viruses. The high level:of genetic and antigenic variation found when comparing the A(24)Cruzeiro vaccine strain and type A strains recovered, from the last identified foci of FMD came from a formerly endemic area where vaccination with polyvalent vaccines (O(1)Campos, A(24)Cruzciro and C(3)Indaial) had been extensively applied. The similarity between the results of the serological and genetic analyses suggest that the antigenic differences found are mainly located in the 1D protein. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Survey for Foot-and-mouth Disease in the Endangered Marsh Deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) from Marshlands of the Parana River Basin, Brazil

Habitat fragmentation and diseases have resulted in a decline of the marsh deer (Blastocerus (dichotomus) throughout its South American range. Our objectives were to determine whether marsh deer intended for translocation from a region of the Rio Parana Basin had been infected previously by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) and whether they were carrying virus We captured marsh deer from June to October 1998 and collected blood from 108 animals and esophageal-pharyngeal fluid from 53 Serum was tested for antibodies against three FMDV serotypes (O, A, and C) by liquid-phase-blocking sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) Esophageal-pharyngeal fluid was tested for FMDV RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and inoculation into three successive baby hamster kidney (BHK-21) cell subcultures, followed by RT-PCR of cultures We detected low log(10) titers (range 1 0-1 5) to FM DV subtype A(24) Cruzeiro in 19 of 108 sampled marsh deer, but failed to isolate FMDV or detect FMDV RNA in any samples we conclude that marsh deer from our study site were unlikely to carry FMDV, however, as a preventive measure, the 19 animals with titers for FMDV were not sent to FMDV-free Brazilian states