898 resultados para Infectious Disease Modelling


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The increasing burden of emerging infectious diseases worldwide confronts us with numerous challenges, including the imperative to design research and responses that are commensurate to understanding the complex social and ecological contexts in which infectious diseases occur. A diverse group of scientists met in Hawaii in March 2005 to discuss the linked social and ecological contexts in which infectious diseases emerge. A subset of the meeting was a group that focused on ‘‘transdisciplinary approaches’’ to integrating knowledge across and beyond academic disciplines in order to improve prevention and control of emerging infections. This article is based on the discussions of that group. Here, we outline the epidemiological legacy that has dominated infectious disease research and control up until now, and introduce the role of new, transdisciplinary and systems-based approaches to emerging infectious diseases.Wedescribe four cases of transboundary health issues and use them to discuss the potential benefits, as well as the inherent difficulties, in understanding the social–ecological contexts in which infectious diseases occur and of using transdisciplinary approaches to deal with them.

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It is indisputable that climate is an important factor in many livestock diseases. Nevertheless, our knowledge of the impact of climate change on livestock infectious diseases is much less certain.Therefore, the aim of the article is to conduct a systematic review of the literature on the topic utilizing available retrospective data and information. Across a corpus of 175 formal publications,limited empirical evidence was offered to underpin many of the main arguments. The literature reviewed was highly polarized and often inconsistent regarding what the future may hold. Historical explorations were rare. However, identifying past drivers to livestock disease may not fully capture the extent that new and unknown drivers will influence future change. As such, our current predictive capacity is low. We offer a number of recommendations to strengthen this capacity in the coming years. We conclude that our current approach to research on the topic is limiting and unlikely to yield sufficient, actionable evidence to inform future praxis. Therefore, we argue for the creation of a reflexive, knowledge-based system, underpinned by a collective intelligence framework to support the drawing of inferences across the literature.

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It is indisputable that climate is an important factor in many livestock diseases. Nevertheless, our knowledge of the impact of climate change on livestock infectious diseases is much less certain. Therefore, the aim of the article is to conduct a systematic review of the literature on the topic utilizing available retrospective data and information. Across a corpus of 175 formal publications, limited empirical evidence was offered to underpin many of the main arguments. The literature reviewed was highly polarized and often inconsistent regarding what the future may hold. Historical explorations were rare. However, identifying past drivers to livestock disease may not fully capture the extent that new and unknown drivers will influence future change. As such, our current predictive capacity is low. We offer a number of recommendations to strengthen this capacity in the coming years. We conclude that our current approach to research on the topic is limiting and unlikely to yield sufficient, actionable evidence to inform future praxis. Therefore, we argue for the creation of a reflexive, knowledge-based system, underpinned by a collective intelligence framework to support the drawing of inferences across the literature.

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At present, there is a clarion call for action on climate change across the global health landscape. At the recent WHO-sponsored conference on health and climate (held in Geneva, Switzerland, on Aug 27–29, 2014) and the UN Climate Summit (New York, USA, on Sept 23, 2014), participants were encouraged to act decisively to change the current trajectory of climate disruption. Health inequalities, including those related to infectious diseases, have now been pushed to centre stage. This approach represents a step-change in thinking. But as we are urged toward collective action, is it time to rethink our approach to research, especially in relation to climate change and infectious disease?

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Background Arboviruses have overlapping geographical distributions and can cause symptoms that coincide with more common infections. Therefore, arbovirus infections are often neglected by travel diagnostics. Here, we assessed the potential of syndrome-based approaches for diagnosis and surveillance of neglected arboviral diseases in returning travelers. Method To map the patients high at risk of missed clinical arboviral infections we compared the quantity of all arboviral diagnostic requests by physicians in the Netherlands, from 2009 through 2013, with a literature-based assessment of the travelers’ likely exposure to an arbovirus. Results 2153 patients, with travel and clinical history were evaluated. The diagnostic assay for dengue virus (DENV) was the most commonly requested (86%). Of travelers returning from Southeast Asia with symptoms compatible with chikungunya virus (CHIKV), only 55% were tested. For travelers in Europe, arbovirus diagnostics were rarely requested. Over all, diagnostics for most arboviruses were requested only on severe clinical presentation. Conclusion Travel destination and syndrome were used inconsistently for triage of diagnostics, likely resulting in vast under-diagnosis of arboviral infections of public health significance. This study shows the need for more awareness among physicians and standardization of syndromic diagnostic algorithms

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Anthropogenic land use changes drive a range of infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events and modify the transmission of endemic infections. These drivers include agricultural encroachment, deforestation, road construction, dam building, irrigation, wetland modification, mining, the concentration or expansion of urban environments, coastal zone degradation, and other activities. These changes in turn cause a cascade of factors that exacerbate infectious disease emergence, such as forest fragmentation, disease introduction, pollution, poverty, and human migration. The Working Group on Land Use Change and Disease Emergence grew out of a special colloquium that convened international experts in infectious diseases, ecology, and environmental health to assess the current state of knowledge and to develop recommendations for addressing these environmental health challenges. The group established a systems model approach and priority lists of infectious diseases affected by ecologic degradation. Policy-relevant levels of the model include specific health risk factors, landscape or habitat change, and institutional (economic and behavioral) levels. The group recommended creating Centers of Excellence in Ecology and Health Research and Training, based at regional universities and/or research institutes with close links to the surrounding communities. The centers' objectives would be 3-fold: a) to provide information to local communities about the links between environmental change and public health ; b) to facilitate fully interdisciplinary research from a variety of natural, social, and health sciences and train professionals who can conduct interdisciplinary research ; and c) to engage in science-based communication and assessment for policy making toward sustainable health and ecosystems.

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The outbreak of the Influenza A (H1N1) virus has led to numerous precautionary school closures in several countries. No research is available on the school teachers’ perceptions as a health protective resource in controlling communicable disease outbreaks. The purposes of this study were to examine the risk perception, the perceived understanding of preventive measures and contingency plans, and the needs of school teachers before the imminent outbreak of H1N1. This survey was conducted with 1,169 Hong Kong school teachers before school closures due to the H1N1 outbreak. The results showed that the teachers were well aware of H1N1 but were still worried about the spread of H1N1 infection. The teachers’ worries depended on their psychological reaction, the adequacy of the control measures, government support in providing infectious disease knowledge, perceived understanding of preventive measures and contingency plans, students and parents’ awareness, and the need for support from health professionals.

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The global risk from new and emerging infectious diseases continues to grow with recognition that, for the most part, the pathogens involved emerge from animals to infect humans. Recognizing the complexity of these interactions and the need for a strong interdisciplinary approach to effectively manage these risks, new partnerships are being forged under the general umbrella of 'one health'. Involving human health, animal health, and environmental health exponents, solutions are sought for how to prevent as well as respond to the threats. But is this approach working? Whilst a number of key meetings continue to be held under the One Health umbrella, are we really seeing measureable progress in risk prevention and mitigation? Focusing research on the drivers for emergence, on modeling the risks, on improved diagnostics, and on targeted vaccines could considerably enhance our ability to prevent and respond. Ensuring the uptake and applications of new diagnostics and vaccines will be the key to prevention and response, but achieving this will require policies that drive further the One Health collaborations. Such policies should ensure that scant available resources are targeted toward the identified outcomes through research delivery and uptake, and that we genuinely work as "one world" in tackling the very real risks we face

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 Background: Efficient and reliable surveillance and notification systems are vital for monitoring public health and disease outbreaks. However, most surveillance and notification systems are affected by a degree of underestimation (UE) and therefore uncertainty surrounds the 'true' incidence of disease affecting morbidity and mortality rates. Surveillance systems fail to capture cases at two distinct levels of the surveillance pyramid: from the community since not all cases seek healthcare (under-ascertainment), and at the healthcare-level, representing a failure to adequately report symptomatic cases that have sought medical advice (underreporting). There are several methods to estimate the extent of under-ascertainment and underreporting. Methods. Within the context of the ECDC-funded Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE)-project, an extensive literature review was conducted to identify studies that estimate ascertainment or reporting rates for salmonellosis and campylobacteriosis in European Union Member States (MS) plus European Free Trade Area (EFTA) countries Iceland, Norway and Switzerland and four other OECD countries (USA, Canada, Australia and Japan). Multiplication factors (MFs), a measure of the magnitude of underestimation, were taken directly from the literature or derived (where the proportion of underestimated, under-ascertained, or underreported cases was known) and compared for the two pathogens. Results: MFs varied between and within diseases and countries, representing a need to carefully select the most appropriate MFs and methods for calculating them. The most appropriate MFs are often disease-, country-, age-, and sex-specific. Conclusions: When routine data are used to make decisions on resource allocation or to estimate epidemiological parameters in populations, it becomes important to understand when, where and to what extent these data represent the true picture of disease, and in some instances (such as priority setting) it is necessary to adjust for underestimation. MFs can be used to adjust notification and surveillance data to provide more realistic estimates of incidence. © 2014 Gibbons et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

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1. Immunocytochemical procedures have played an increasingly larger role in the identification of infectious disease agents in tissue sections owing to the increased availability and specificity of antibody reagents, the great sensitivity of the methods, and the relative facility with which the studies are performed.2. Immunocytochemical methods can be applied to routine formalin-fixed tissue for the detection of infectious agents such as viruses, bacteria, fungi, and protozoa among other microorganisms for diagnostic and research purposes.

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BACKGROUND: Brazilian blood centers ask candidate blood donors about the number of sexual partners in the past 12 months. Candidates who report a number over the limit are deferred. We studied the implications of this practice on blood safety. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed demographic characteristics, number of heterosexual partners, and disease marker rates among 689,868 donations from three Brazilian centers between July 2007 and December 2009. Donors were grouped based on maximum number of partners allowed in the past 12 months for each center. Chi-square and logistic regression analysis were conducted to examine associations between demographic characteristics, number of sex partners, and individual and overall positive markers rates for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), human T-lymphotropic virus Types 1 and 2, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and syphilis. RESULTS: First-time, younger, and more educated donors were associated with a higher number of recent sexual partners, as was male sex in Sao Paulo and Recife (p < 0.001). Serologic markers for HIV and syphilis and overall were associated with multiple partners in Sao Paulo and Recife (p < 0.001), but not in Belo Horizonte (p = 0.05, p = 0.94, and p = 0.75, respectively). In logistic regression analysis, number of recent sexual partners was associated with positive serologic markers (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.2-1.5), especially HIV (AOR, 1.9-4.4). CONCLUSIONS: Number of recent heterosexual partners was associated with HIV positivity and overall rates of serologic markers of sexually transmitted infections. The association was not consistent across centers, making it difficult to define the best cutoff value. These findings suggest the use of recent heterosexual contacts as a potentially important deferral criterion to improve blood safety in Brazil.