Limnological studies of a freshwater tropical impoundment : Powai Lake. 1: Morphometry and physical features

Powai Lake, an impoundment, came into existence in 1891 when the riverlet Dhanisar was dammed to conserve rainwater for drinking purpose. However, the water was found to be unpotable and the lake was leased out to the Angling Association, Bombay, exclusively for angling and sports. The lake is located about 27 km in the northeast of Bombay city at a height of 55m above MSL. It is rainfed with an average rainfall of 2,400 mm. The maximum waterspread area is 220 ha with a maximum capacity of 8.11 million m super(3) in the peak monsoon period when the water overflows the dam. There is no drawdown from the lake. Fluctuation in the water level is mainly due to evaporation and percolation. Transparency is low mainly due to suspended organic particles. There is hardly any difference in the water temperatures of surface and bottom, hence the annual heat budget is low at 2,818 cal m super(-2).

Numerical calculation of the response of the south China sea to typhoon imbudo

The response of the South China Sea (SCS) to Typhoon Imbudo was examined using POM model. The results indicated that SST decreased by 2-6 degrees C with a rightward-biased response as Typhoon Imbudo passed across the SCS. Due to a strong mixing process, the mixed layer (ML) depth deepened as much as 10-60 m and ML heat budget lost 824.78 W/m(2), which was OF dominated by the vertical mixing. By the response of upper ML heat transport, the temperature below the ML increased and oscillated near the inertial period. Furthermore, strong inertial currents were generated by the storm with the max currents up to 1.4 m/s in the upper ML.

Annual cycle of stratification and tidal fronts in the Bohai Sea: A model study

In general, competition between buoyancy mechanisms and mixing dynamics largely determines the water column structure in a shelf sea. A three dimensional baroclinic ocean model forced by surface heat fluxes and the 2.5 order Mellor-Yamada turbulence scheme is used to simulate the annual cycle of the temperature in the Bohai Sea. The difference between the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea bottom temperature (SBT) is used to examine the evolution of its vertical stratification. It is found that the water column is well-mixed from October to March and that the seasonal thermocline appears in April, peaks in July and then weakens afterwards, closely following the heat budget. In addition, the Loder parameter based on the topography and tidal current amplitude is also computed in order to examine tidal fronts in the BS, which are evident in summer months when the wind stirring mechanism is weak.

Remote Sensing the Signatures of Upwelling in South Eastern Arabian Sea

In this thesis, a variety of available satellite data products have been made use of to bring out a synergistic analysis on the upwelling phenomenon in SEAS. Basic concepts of remote sensing, upwelling and linked oceanography topics have been dealt in this work .Auxiliary data products utilized in this study are described in chapter 2. The climatological monthly variability of the upwelling signatures are detailed under chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents the forcing factors that trigger the upwelling process in SEAS. Chapter 5 describes the oceanic response to the forcing factors with respect to the SST cooling and CHLA blooms. Chapter 6 presents the heat budget of the region and the variability of heat budget terms with respect to upwelling. Chapter 7 describes the inter-annual variability of upwelling intensity in SEAS and the influence of climatic events on upwelling.

Dynamics and Thermodynamics of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool

The present study examines the importance of low saline waters and resulting barrier layer in the dynamics of the ASWP using observational data.The oceanic general circulation models (OGCM) are very useful for exploring the processes responsible for the ASWP and their variability. The circulation and thermohaline structure stimulated by an OGCM changes a lot when the resolution is increased from mesoscale to macro scale. For a reasonable simulation of the ASWP, we must include the mesoscale turbulence in numerical models. Especially the SEAS is an eddy prominent region with a horizontal dimension of 100 to 500 km and vertical extent of hundred meters. These eddies may have an important role on the evolution of ASWP, which has not been explored so far.Most of the earlier studies in the SEAS showed that the heat buildup in the mixed layer during the pre-monsoon (March-May) is primarily driven by the surface heat flux through the ocean-atmosphere interface, while the 3-dimensional heat budget of the ML physical processes that are responsible for the formation of the ASWP are unknown. With this background the present thesis also examines the relative importance of mixed layer processes that lead to the formation of warm pool in the SEAS.

A surface energy perspective on climate change

A surface forcing response framework is developed that enables an understanding of time-dependent climate change from a surface energy perspective. The framework allows the separation of fast responses that are unassociated with global-mean surface air temperature change (ΔT), which is included in the forcing, and slow feedbacks that scale with ΔT. The framework is illustrated primarily using 2 × CO2 climate model experiments and is robust across the models. For CO2 increases, the positive downward radiative component of forcing is smaller at the surface than at the tropopause, and so a rapid reduction in the upward surface latent heat (LH) flux is induced to conserve the tropospheric heat budget; this reduces the precipitation rate. Analysis of the time-dependent surface energy balance over sea and land separately reveals that land areas rapidly regain energy balance, and significant land surface warming occurs before global sea temperatures respond. The 2 × CO2 results are compared to a solar increase experiment and show that some fast responses are forcing dependent. In particular, a significant forcing from the fast hydrological response found in the CO2 experiments is much smaller in the solar experiment. The different fast response explains why previous equilibrium studies found differences in the hydrological sensitivity between these two forcings. On longer time scales, as ΔT increases, the net surface longwave and LH fluxes provide positive and negative surface feedbacks, respectively, while the net surface shortwave and sensible heat fluxes change little. It is found that in contrast to their fast responses, the longer-term response of both surface energy fluxes and the global hydrological cycle are similar for the different forcing agents.

Anthropogenic warming of the oceans: Observations and model results

Observations show the oceans have warmed over the past 40 yr. with appreciable regional variation and more warming at the surface than at depth. Comparing the observations with results from two coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models [the Parallel Climate Model version 1 (PCM) and the Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model version 3 (HadCM3)] that include anthropogenic forcing shows remarkable agreement between the observed and model-estimated warming. In this comparison the models were sampled at the same locations as gridded yearly observed data. In the top 100 m of the water column the warming is well separated from natural variability, including both variability arising from internal instabilities of the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system and that arising from volcanism and solar fluctuations. Between 125 and 200 m the agreement is not significant, but then increases again below this level, and remains significant down to 600 m. Analysis of PCM's heat budget indicates that the warming is driven by an increase in net surface heat flux that reaches 0.7 W m(-2) by the 1990s; the downward longwave flux increases bv 3.7 W m(-2). which is not fully compensated by an increase in the upward longwave flux of 2.2 W m(-2). Latent and net solar heat fluxes each decrease by about 0.6 W m(-2). The changes in the individual longwave components are distinguishable from the preindustrial mean by the 1920s, but due to cancellation of components. changes in the net surface heat flux do not become well separated from zero until the 1960s. Changes in advection can also play an important role in local ocean warming due to anthropogenic forcing, depending, on the location. The observed sampling of ocean temperature is highly variable in space and time. but sufficient to detect the anthropogenic warming signal in all basins, at least in the surface layers, bv the 1980s.

A model study of oceanic mechanisms affecting Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature during the 1997-98 El Niño

In this study, the processes affecting sea surface temperature variability over the 1992–98 period, encompassing the very strong 1997–98 El Niño event, are analyzed. A tropical Pacific Ocean general circulation model, forced by a combination of weekly ERS1–2 and TAO wind stresses, and climatological heat and freshwater fluxes, is first validated against observations. The model reproduces the main features of the tropical Pacific mean state, despite a weaker than observed thermal stratification, a 0.1 m s−1 too strong (weak) South Equatorial Current (North Equatorial Countercurrent), and a slight underestimate of the Equatorial Undercurrent. Good agreement is found between the model dynamic height and TOPEX/Poseidon sea level variability, with correlation/rms differences of 0.80/4.7 cm on average in the 10°N–10°S band. The model sea surface temperature variability is a bit weak, but reproduces the main features of interannual variability during the 1992–98 period. The model compares well with the TAO current variability at the equator, with correlation/rms differences of 0.81/0.23 m s−1 for surface currents. The model therefore reproduces well the observed interannual variability, with wind stress as the only interannually varying forcing. This good agreement with observations provides confidence in the comprehensive three-dimensional circulation and thermal structure of the model. A close examination of mixed layer heat balance is thus undertaken, contrasting the mean seasonal cycle of the 1993–96 period and the 1997–98 El Niño. In the eastern Pacific, cooling by exchanges with the subsurface (vertical advection, mixing, and entrainment), the atmospheric forcing, and the eddies (mainly the tropical instability waves) are the three main contributors to the heat budget. In the central–western Pacific, the zonal advection by low-frequency currents becomes the main contributor. Westerly wind bursts (in December 1996 and March and June 1997) were found to play a decisive role in the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño. They contributed to the early warming in the eastern Pacific because the downwelling Kelvin waves that they excited diminished subsurface cooling there. But it is mainly through eastward advection of the warm pool that they generated temperature anomalies in the central Pacific. The end of El Niño can be linked to the large-scale easterly anomalies that developed in the western Pacific and spread eastward, from the end of 1997 onward. In the far-western Pacific, because of the shallower than normal thermocline, these easterlies cooled the SST by vertical processes. In the central Pacific, easterlies pushed the warm pool back to the west. In the east, they led to a shallower thermocline, which ultimately allowed subsurface cooling to resume and to quickly cool the surface layer.

The role of lateral ocean physics in the upper ocean thermal balance of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

The sensitivity of the upper ocean thermal balance of an ocean-atmosphere coupled GCM to lateral ocean physics is assessed. Three 40-year simulations are performed using horizontal mixing, isopycnal mixing, and isopycnal mixing plus eddy induced advection. The thermal adjustment of the coupled system is quite different between the simulations, confirming the major role of ocean mixing on the heat balance of climate. The initial adjustment phase of the upper ocean (SST) is used to diagnose the physical mechanisms involved in each parametrisation. When the lateral ocean physics is modified, significant changes of SST are seen, mainly in the southern ocean. A heat budget of the annual mixed layer (defined as the “bowl”) shows that these changes are due to a modified heat transfer between the bowl and the ocean interior. This modified heat intake of the ocean interior is directly due to the modified lateral ocean physics. In isopycnal diffusion, this heat exchange, especially marked at mid-latitudes, is both due to an increased effective surface of diffusion and to the sign of the isopycnal gradients of temperature at the base of the bowl. As this gradient is proportional to the isopycnal gradient of salinity, this confirms the strong role of salinity in the thermal balance of the coupled system. The eddy induced advection also leads to increased exchanges between the bowl and the ocean interior. This is both due to the shape of the bowl and again to the existence of a salinity structure. The lateral ocean physics is shown to be a significant contributor to the exchanges between the diabatic and the adiabatic parts of the ocean.

Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the mid 1990s

In the mid 1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) warmed rapidly, with sea surface temperatures (SST) increasing by 1°C in just a few years. By examining initialized hindcasts made with the UK Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys), it is shown that the warming could have been predicted. Conversely, hindcasts that only consider changes in radiative forcings are not able to capture the rapid warming. Heat budget analysis shows that the success of the DePreSys hindcasts is due to the initialization of anomalously strong northward ocean heat transport. Furthermore, it is found that initializing a strong Atlantic circulation, and in particular a strong Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, is key for successful predictions. Finally, we show that DePreSys is able to predict significant changes in SST and other surface climate variables related to the North Atlantic warming.

The link between the Barents Sea and ENSO events simulated by NEMO model

An analysis of observational data in the Barents Sea along a meridian at 33°30' E between 70°30' and 72°30' N has reported a negative correlation between El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and water temperature in the top 200 m: the temperature drops about 0.5 °C during warm ENSO events while during cold ENSO events the top 200 m layer of the Barents Sea is warmer. Results from 1 and 1/4-degree global NEMO models show a similar response for the whole Barents Sea. During the strong warm ENSO event in 1997–1998 an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the Barents Sea enhances heat loses, as well as substantially influencing the Barents Sea inflow from the North Atlantic, via changes in ocean currents. Under normal conditions along the Scandinavian peninsula there is a warm current entering the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic, however after the 1997–1998 event this current is weakened. During 1997–1998 the model annual mean temperature in the Barents Sea is decreased by about 0.8 °C, also resulting in a higher sea ice volume. In contrast during the cold ENSO events in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the model shows a lower sea ice volume, and higher annual mean temperatures in the upper layer of the Barents Sea of about 0.7 °C. An analysis of model data shows that the strength of the Atlantic inflow in the Barents Sea is the main cause of heat content variability, and is forced by changing pressure and winds in the North Atlantic. However, surface heat-exchange with the atmosphere provides the means by which the Barents sea heat budget relaxes to normal in the subsequent year after the ENSO events.

Multiple stationary solutions of an irradiated slab

A mathematical model describing the heat budget of an irradiated medium is introduced. The one-dimensional form of the equations and boundary conditions are presented and analysed. Heat transport at one face of the slab occurs by absorption (and reflection) of an incoming beam of short-wave radiation with a fraction of this radiation penetrating into the body of the slab, a diffusive heat flux in the slab and a prescribed incoming heat flux term. The other face of the slab is immersed in its own melt and is considered to be a free surface. Here, temperature continuity is prescribed and evolution of the surface is determined by a Stefan condition. These boundary conditions are flexible enough to describe a range of situations such as a laser shining on an opaque medium, or the natural environment of polar sea ice or lake ice. A two-stream radiation model is used which replaces the simple Beer’s law of radiation attenuation frequently used for semi-infinite domains. The stationary solutions of the governing equations are sought and it is found that there exists two possible stationary solutions for a given set of boundary conditions and a range of parameter choices. It is found that the existence of two stationary solutions is a direct result of the model of radiation absorption, due to its effect on the albedo of the medium. A linear stability analysis and numerical calculations indicate that where two stationary solutions exist, the solution corresponding to a larger thickness is always stable and the solution corresponding to a smaller thickness is unstable. Numerical simulations reveal that when there are two solutions, if the slab is thinner than the smaller stationary thickness it will melt completely, whereas if the slab is thicker than the smaller stationary thickness it will evolve toward the larger stationary thickness. These results indicate that other mechanisms (e.g. wave-induced agglomeration of crystals) are necessary to grow a slab from zero initial thickness in the parameter regime that yields two stationary solutions.

Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single ‘deterministic’ forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale,which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.

Sr-Nd isotopic evidence for crustal contamination in the Niquelandia complex, Goias, Central Brazil

The Niquelandia complex is a Neoproterozoic mafic-ultramafic intrusion resulting from fractional crystallization of primary picritic basalt intrusions. It consists of two layered sequences: a lower and larger one (LS), where four stratigraphic units exhibit an upward decrease of ultramafic layers and increase of gabbroic layers; an upper, smaller sequence (US), separated from LS by a high-temperature shear zone and consisting of two stratigraphic units (gabbros + anorthosites and amphibolites). Nd and Sr isotopic analyses and rare earth element (REE) profiles provide evidence that the complex suffered important crustal contamination. The LS isotopic array trends from a DM region with positive epsilon Nd and moderately positive epsilon Sr towards a field occupied by crustal xenoliths, especially abundant in the upper LS (negative epsilon Nd and large, positive E:Sr). Each LS stratigraphic unit is distinct from the next underlying unit, showing lower epsilon Nd and higher epsilon Sr, suggesting inputs of fresh magma and mixing with the contaminated, residual magma. The US is characterised by a relatively high variation of epsilon Nd and constant epsilon Sr. REE patterns vary within each unit from LREE depleted to LREE enriched in the samples having lower epsilon Nd and higher epsilon Sr. The contamination process has been modelled by using the EC-AFC algorithms from [Spera, F.J., Bohrson, W.A., 2001. Energy-constrained open-system magmatic processes 1: general model and energy-constrained assimilation and fractional crystallization (EC-AFC) formulation. J. Petrology 42, 999-1018]. The differences between the LS and US isotopic arrays are consistent with contamination by the same crustal component, provided that its melting degree was higher in LS than in US. The different degrees of anatexis are explained by the heat budget released from the magma, higher in LS (because of its larger mass) than in US. Comparison of the correlations between isotopes and incompatible trace element ratios of the models and of the gabbros shows some differences, which are demonstrably related with the variable amount of cumulus phases and trapped melt in the gabbros. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THERMAL REGIME AND STABILITY OF JURUMIRIM RESERVOIR (PARANAPANEMA RIVER, SAO-PAULO, BRAZIL)

Thermal regime and stability in Jurumirim Reservoir (São Paulo, Brazil) were studied for a year. Isothermy and thermal stratification were observed from June to September and from October to March, respectively. The annual heat budget was 14.0 Kcal . cm-2 and average heat gain per day was 67.2 cal . cm-2 . day-1. Maximum stability and wind work reached 324.2 and 3,037.5 g . cm . cm-2, respectively. According to thermal structure and heat content, Jurumirim Reservoir was classified as a warm tropical monomictic lake.