A neurofuzzy approach to future intelligent driver support systems

This paper reviews a variety of advanced signal processing algorithms that have been developed at the University of Southampton as part of the Prometheus (PROgraMme for European Traffic flow with Highest Efficiency and Unprecedented Safety) research programme to achieve an intelligent driver warning system (IDWS). The IDWS includes: visual detection of both generic obstacles and other vehicles, together with their tracking and identification, estimates of time to collision and behavioural modelling of drivers for a variety of scenarios. These application areas are used to show the applicability of neurofuzzy techniques to the wide range of problems required to support an IDWS, and for future fully autonomous vehicles.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

Sampling frequency affects estimates of annual nitrous oxide fluxes

Quantifying nitrous oxide (N(2)O) fluxes, a potent greenhouse gas, from soils is necessary to improve our knowledge of terrestrial N(2)O losses. Developing universal sampling frequencies for calculating annual N(2)O fluxes is difficult, as fluxes are renowned for their high temporal variability. We demonstrate daily sampling was largely required to achieve annual N(2)O fluxes within 10% of the best estimate for 28 annual datasets collected from three continents, Australia, Europe and Asia. Decreasing the regularity of measurements either under- or overestimated annual N(2)O fluxes, with a maximum overestimation of 935%. Measurement frequency was lowered using a sampling strategy based on environmental factors known to affect temporal variability, but still required sampling more than once a week. Consequently, uncertainty in current global terrestrial N(2)O budgets associated with the upscaling of field-based datasets can be decreased significantly using adequate sampling frequencies.

Wear Next: An Exploration into the Future of Wearable Technology

Technology is increasingly infiltrating all aspects of our lives and the rapid uptake of devices that live near, on or in our bodies are facilitating radical new ways of working, relating and socialising. This distribution of technology into the very fabric of our everyday life creates new possibilities, but also raises questions regarding our future relationship with data and the quantified self. By embedding technology into the fabric of our clothes and accessories, it becomes ‘wearable’. Such ‘wearables’ enable the acquisition of and the connection to vast amounts of data about people and environments in order to provide life-augmenting levels of interactivity. Wearable sensors for example, offer the potential for significant benefits in the future management of our wellbeing. Fitness trackers such as ‘Fitbit’ and ‘Garmen’ provide wearers with the ability to monitor their personal fitness indicators while other wearables provide healthcare professionals with information that improves diagnosis. While the rapid uptake of wearables may offer unique and innovative opportunities, there are also concerns surrounding the high levels of data sharing that come as a consequence of these technologies. As more ‘smart’ devices connect to the Internet, and as technology becomes increasingly available (e.g. via Wi-Fi, Bluetooth), more products, artefacts and things are becoming interconnected. This digital connection of devices is called The ‘Internet of Things’ (IoT). IoT is spreading rapidly, with many traditionally non-online devices becoming increasingly connected; products such as mobile phones, fridges, pedometers, coffee machines, video cameras, cars and clothing. The IoT is growing at a rapid rate with estimates indicating that by 2020 there will be over 25 billion connected things globally. As the number of devices connected to the Internet increases, so too does the amount of data collected and type of information that is stored and potentially shared. The ability to collect massive amounts of data - known as ‘big data’ - can be used to better understand and predict behaviours across all areas of research from societal and economic to environmental and biological. With this kind of information at our disposal, we have a more powerful lens with which to perceive the world, and the resulting insights can be used to design more appropriate products, services and systems. It can however, also be used as a method of surveillance, suppression and coercion by governments or large organisations. This is becoming particularly apparent in advertising that targets audiences based on the individual preferences revealed by the data collected from social media and online devices such as GPS systems or pedometers. This type of technology also provides fertile ground for public debates around future fashion, identity and broader social issues such as culture, politics and the environment. The potential implications of these type of technological interactions via wearables, through and with the IoT, have never been more real or more accessible. But, as highlighted, this interconnectedness also brings with it complex technical, ethical and moral challenges. Data security and the protection of privacy and personal information will become ever more present in current and future ethical and moral debates of the 21st century. This type of technology is also a stepping-stone to a future that includes implantable technology, biotechnologies, interspecies communication and augmented humans (cyborgs). Technologies that live symbiotically and perpetually in our bodies, the built environment and the natural environment are no longer the stuff of science fiction; it is in fact a reality. So, where next?... The works exhibited in Wear Next_ provide a snapshot into the broad spectrum of wearables in design and in development internationally. This exhibition has been curated to serve as a platform for enhanced broader debate around future technology, our mediated future-selves and the evolution of human interactions. As you explore the exhibition, may we ask that you pause and think to yourself, what might we... Wear Next_? WEARNEXT ONLINE LISTINGS AND MEDIA COVERAGE: http://indulgemagazine.net/wear-next/ http://www.weekendnotes.com/wear-next-exhibition-gallery-artisan/ http://concreteplayground.com/brisbane/event/wear-next_/ http://www.nationalcraftinitiative.com.au/news_and_events/event/48/wear-next http://bneart.com/whats-on/wear-next_/ http://creativelysould.tumblr.com/post/124899079611/creative-weekend-art-edition http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/smartly-dressed-the-future-of-wearable-technology/6744374 http://couriermail.newspaperdirect.com/epaper/viewer.aspx RADIO COVERAGE http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/wear-next-exhibition-whats-next-for-wearable-technology/6745986 TELEVISION COVERAGE http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/wear-next-exhibition-whats-next-for-wearable-technology/6745986 https://au.news.yahoo.com/video/watch/29439742/how-you-could-soon-be-wearing-smart-clothes/#page1

Greenhouse gas inventory estimates for India

This article reports the greenhouse gas emissions of anthropogenic origin by sources and removals by sinks of India for 2007 prepared under the aegis of the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) (note 1). The emission profile includes carbon dioxide (CO(2)), methane and nitrous oxide. It also includes the estimates of hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride at the national level from various sectors, viz, energy, industrial process and product use, agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), and waste. In 2007, emissions were of the order of 2008.67 Tg (note 2) of CO(2) equivalents without emissions from the LULUCF sector. Whereas with LULUCF the emissions were about 1831.65 Tg CO(2) equivalents. The energy sector accounted for 69% of the total emissions, the agriculture sector contributed 19% of the emissions, 9% of the emissions was from the industrial processes and product use, and only 3% of the emissions was attributable to the waste sector. The LULUCF sector on the whole was net sink category for CO(2). The study tracks the improvements made in inventory estimates at the national level through the years, in terms of the expanding coverage of sources, reducing uncertainties and inclusion of new methodologies, including some elements of future areas of work.

Habitat mapping effort at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary – Current status and future needs

With elevating interest to establish conservation efforts for groundfish stocks and continued scrutiny over the value of marine protected areas along the west coast, the importance of enhancing our knowledge of seabed characteristics through mapping activities is becoming increasingly more important, especially in a timely manner. Shortly after the inception of the Seabed Mapping Initiative instituted with the US Geological Survey (USGS), the National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) assembled a panel of habitat mapping experts. They determined that the status of existing data sets and future data acquisition needs varied widely among the individual sanctuaries and that more detailed site assessments were needed to better prioritize mapping efforts and outline an overall joint strategy. To assist with that specific effort and provide pertinent information for the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary’s (OCNMS) Management Plan Review, this report summarizes the mapping efforts that have taken place at the site to date; calculates a timeframe for completion of baseline mapping efforts when operating under current data acquisition limitations; describes an optimized survey strategy to dramatically reduce the required time to complete baseline surveying; and provides estimates for the needed vessel sea-days (DAS) to accomplish baseline survey completion within a 2, 5 and 10 year timeframe. (PDF contains 38 pages.)

The Costs of Ecosystem Adaptation: Methodology and Estimates for Indian Forests

34 p.

Estimates of body sizes at maturation and at sex change, and the spawning seasonality and sex ratio of the endemic Hawaiian grouper (Hyporthodus quernus, F. Epinephelidae)

A case study of the reproductive biology of the endemic Hawaiian grouper or hapu’upu’u (Hyporthodus quernus) is presented as a model for comprehensive future studies of economically important epinephelid groupers. Specimens were collected throughout multiple years (1978–81, 1992–93, and 2005–08) from most reefs and banks of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. The absence of small males, presence of atretic oocytes and brown bodies in testes of mature males, and both developed ovarian and testicular tissues in the gonads of five transitional fish provided evidence of protogynous hermaphroditism. No small mature males were collected, indicating that Hawaiian grouper are monandrous (all males are sex-changed females). Complementary microscopic criteria also were used to assign reproductive stage and estimate median body sizes (L50) at female sexual maturity and at adult sex change from female to male. The L50 at maturation and at sex change was 580 ±8 (95% confidence interval [CI]) mm total length (TL) and 895 ±20 mm TL, respectively. The adult sex ratio was strongly female biased (6:1). Spawning seasonality was described by using gonadosomatic indices. Females began ripening in the fall and remained ripe through April. A February–June main spawning period that followed peak ripening was deduced from the proportion of females whose ovaries contained hydrated oocytes, postovulatory follicles, or both. Testes weights were not affected by season; average testes weight was only about 0.2% of body weight—an order of magnitude smaller than that for ovaries that peaked at 1–3% of body weight. The species’ reproductive life history is discussed in relation to its management.

Past trends, present stocks and possible future state of the fisheries of the Tanzania part of the Lake Victoria

The Tanzania part of Lake Victoria is the most important single fishery resource for the country. Past fishing practice caused disparity between the relative abundance in the catches and in the available stocks by overfishing some species while under-fishing others. Preliminary studies of distribution pattern, biomass estimates, etc, as derived from bollom trawl exploratory data, and the trend of the commercial catch statistics from 1958 to 1970, suggest that many of the commercially preferred species may not have the biotic potential 10 sustain higher yields under present ecological and fishing regimes. Haplochromis and a few other fish might be the only hope. Geographic extension of fishing to deeper waters may not be very promising as species diversificarion and fish density decline with depth. To develop and manage the fisheries, make full use of the resource and ensure economic and biological perpetuation of thc fishery, the appropriate fishing strategy cannot be properly developcd overnight.

Past trends and recent research on the fisheries of Lake Victoria in relation to possible future developments

EAFFRO and UNPP/LVFRP bottom trawl exploratory data have been used to describe the depth distributional pattern. relative abundance and magnitude of the demersai fishes in Lake Victoria. The results have been compared with the commercial catch estimates, and various interpretations of the trends in the annual catches and experimental biomass estimates in relation to possible future developments of the fishery have been suggested. Though it is highly desirable to develop the fishery such as by supplementary trawling, certain social and biological consequences and considerations needs to proceed in graded steps guided by several research disciplines. The past trends of the fisheries of Lake Victoria are briefly considered. Recent exploratory bottom trawl data, by EAFFRO and UNDP/LVFRP, have been used to define demersal fish stocks of Lake Victoria in terms of their magnitude, relative abundance and distribution pattern by depth. Enstence of disparity between the relative abundance of the various species in their commercial catches and in their present biomass estimates is pointed out and the various aspects associated with the necessary modification of the fishing practices are discussed. Further and continuing research of the bio-socio-economic vectors of the fishery will be necessary in order to generate the rationale of an efficient fishing regime for a rational management strategy and realistic utilization of the fishery resource.

The future prospects of the fish stocks of Lake Victoria, Uganda

Experimental trawling during the period 1981/86 and analysis of past commercial catch landings, mainly in the northern portion of Lake Victoria have indicated that the standing stocks and therefore, the estimates of sustainable yields of the most important fish species have unquestionably changed since the 1969/71 comprehensive lake-wide stock assessment survey. Lake Victoria which was originally a multi-species fishery now relies on two introduced species (Lates niloticus and Oreochromis niloticus) and one indigenous cyprinid (Rastrineobola argentea). Most of the traditional fish species, including the once dominant haplochromines, have either declined or disappeared. The catch rates in the experimental trawl catches declined from 797 kg/hr in 1969/71 to 575 kg/hr in 1981 and 166 kg/hr in 1985. The contribution of L. niloticus in the trawl catch increased from 0.9% in 1981 to 95.6% in 1985 while the contribution of the haplochromines decreased from about 91% to about 1% over the same period. The mean size of the individual fish caught (particularly the Nile perch) was also on the decline. Similar trends were also observed in the commercial fishery. However, recent observations in the Lake Kyoga commercial fishery that O. niloticus has now surpassed L.niloticus in importance may create more uncertainty regarding the future trends of the fish stocks of Lake Victoria. Inspite of the above situation, developments to increasingly exploit the fish stocks of the lake for export continue to take place. A number of fish processing and/or handling plants have been established in the Jinja, Kampala and Entebbe areas of the lake. Each of these plants is capable of handling upwards of 10 tons of fish a day, the target fish being L. niloticus and O. niloticus.

Sampling uncertainty properties of cloud fraction estimates from random transect observations

[1] Cloud cover is conventionally estimated from satellite images as the observed fraction of cloudy pixels. Active instruments such as radar and Lidar observe in narrow transects that sample only a small percentage of the area over which the cloud fraction is estimated. As a consequence, the fraction estimate has an associated sampling uncertainty, which usually remains unspecified. This paper extends a Bayesian method of cloud fraction estimation, which also provides an analytical estimate of the sampling error. This method is applied to test the sensitivity of this error to sampling characteristics, such as the number of observed transects and the variability of the underlying cloud field. The dependence of the uncertainty on these characteristics is investigated using synthetic data simulated to have properties closely resembling observations of the spaceborne Lidar NASA-LITE mission. Results suggest that the variance of the cloud fraction is greatest for medium cloud cover and least when conditions are mostly cloudy or clear. However, there is a bias in the estimation, which is greatest around 25% and 75% cloud cover. The sampling uncertainty is also affected by the mean lengths of clouds and of clear intervals; shorter lengths decrease uncertainty, primarily because there are more cloud observations in a transect of a given length. Uncertainty also falls with increasing number of transects. Therefore a sampling strategy aimed at minimizing the uncertainty in transect derived cloud fraction will have to take into account both the cloud and clear sky length distributions as well as the cloud fraction of the observed field. These conclusions have implications for the design of future satellite missions. This paper describes the first integrated methodology for the analytical assessment of sampling uncertainty in cloud fraction observations from forthcoming spaceborne radar and Lidar missions such as NASA's Calipso and CloudSat.

Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Working Group 1: Future developments in deterministic and stochastic parametrizations

Our group considered the desirability of including representations of uncertainty in the development of parameterizations. (By ‘uncertainty’ here we mean the deviation of sub-grid scale fluxes or tendencies in any given model grid box from truth.) We unanimously agreed that the ECWMF should attempt to provide a more physical basis for uncertainty estimates than the very effective but ad hoc methods being used at present. Our discussions identified several issues that will arise.

Impact of land cover uncertainties on estimates of biospheric carbon fluxes

Large-scale bottom-up estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes, whether based on models or inventory, are highly dependent on the assumed land cover. Most current land cover and land cover change maps are based on satellite data and are likely to be so for the foreseeable future. However, these maps show large differences, both at the class level and when transformed into Plant Functional Types (PFTs), and these can lead to large differences in terrestrial CO2 fluxes estimated by Dynamic Vegetation Models. In this study the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model is used. We compare PFT maps and the resulting fluxes arising from the use of widely available moderate (1 km) resolution satellite-derived land cover maps (the Global Land Cover 2000 and several MODIS classification schemes), with fluxes calculated using a reference high (25 m) resolution land cover map specific to Great Britain (the Land Cover Map 2000). We demonstrate that uncertainty is introduced into carbon flux calculations by (1) incorrect or uncertain assignment of land cover classes to PFTs; (2) information loss at coarser resolutions; (3) difficulty in discriminating some vegetation types from satellite data. When averaged over Great Britain, modeled CO2 fluxes derived using the different 1 km resolution maps differ from estimates made using the reference map. The ranges of these differences are 254 gC m−2 a−1 in Gross Primary Production (GPP); 133 gC m−2 a−1 in Net Primary Production (NPP); and 43 gC m−2 a−1 in Net Ecosystem Production (NEP). In GPP this accounts for differences of −15.8% to 8.8%. Results for living biomass exhibit a range of 1109 gC m−2. The types of uncertainties due to land cover confusion are likely to be representative of many parts of the world, especially heterogeneous landscapes such as those found in western Europe.