Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

Rede de atendimento socioeducativo: possibilidades e limites da garantia de direitos

The results of the research systematized on this analysis sought apprehend the linkage of the socio-educational service network, destined to adolescents who comply with socioeducational measure of confinement, in the region of the Seridó of the state of the Rio Grande do Norte, especially in the city of Caicó, central town of this region. The achievement of this study was stimulated by the interest in unraveling the contradictory reality imposed by neoliberal State, sparing the guarantee of rights, especially to these teens, who are seen as authors of violations and are stigmatized by capitalist society. The research was carried in the period July-September 2013, under critical perspective, using the documental analysis and the observational techniques and interviews with professionals of the Educational Center (CEDUC), of the Unified Health System (SUS), of the Social Policies of Social Assistance, and of the State Department of Education, which should make the service network that gravitates around the National System of Socio-educational Services (SINASE). The Statute of Children and Adolescents (ECA) and SINASE define that the application of socioeducational measures cannot occur isolated of the public policies, becoming indispensable the linkages of the system with the social policies of social assistance, education and health. However, it was observed that the neoliberal logic of the capitalist State has developed broken, disconnected, focal and superficial social policies, who fail give effect to the rights acquired beyond the legal sphere. In this perspective, it is possible affirm that the everyday of the Brazilian poor teens is marked by the action of the State, which aims to control those who disturb the order of capital, who threaten the production, the market, the consume and the private property. This way, actions are promoted criminalizing poverty and imprint a legal action over this expression of the social issue to the detriment of social policies that meet the real needs of adolescents. Face of this reality, it becomes necessary to put on the agenda of the here and now to fight for rights, aiming at a broad public debate involving professionals, researchers and social movements in support of the viability of rights, which aims to support reflections and to strengthen ways to confront this social problem. With the approximations of this study, it was learned that the struggle for rights is a fight for another project of society, beyond what is laid.

Evaluation of the ECOSSE model for simulating soil organic carbon under Miscanthus and short rotation coppice-willow crops in Britain

Acknowledgements This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

Simulation of greenhouse gases following land-use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model : a comparison between site measurements and model predictions

This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).

Chemical composition and phytoplankton characteristics of water samples obtained during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXIV/3

The fixation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) by marine phytoplankton provides an important feedback mechanism on concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. As a consequence it is important to determine whether oceanic primary productivity is susceptible to changing atmospheric CO2 levels Among numerous other factors, the acquisition of DIC by microalgae particularly in the polar seas is projected to have a significant effect on future phytoplanktonic production and hence atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Using the isotopic disequilibrium technique the contribution of different carbon species (CO2 and bicarbonate) to the overall DIC uptake and the extent to which external Carbonic Anhydrase (eCA) plays a role in facilitating DIC uptake was estimated. Simultaneous uptake of CO2 and HCO3- was observed in all cases, but the proportions in which different DIC species contributed to carbon assimilation varied considerably between stations. Bicarbonate as well as CO2 could be the major DIC source for local phytoplankton assemblages. There was a positive correlation between the contribution of CO2 to total DIC uptake and ambient concentration of CO2 in seawater suggesting that Southern Ocean microalgae could increase the proportion of CO2 uptake under future high atmospheric CO2 levels. Results will be discussed in view of metabolic costs related to DIC acquisition of Southern Ocean phytoplankton.

What if TTIP Changed the Regulation of Public Services ?Lessons for Europe from Developing Countries

This paper argues that the TTIP negotiators may be underestimating some of the risks associated with the treatment of public services. De facto opening the door to supranational regulation of key public services may be well intended to protect investors. But when the bargaining power of these investors operating in non-competitive markets (which is the case for most public services) becomes excessive as a result, the experience of developing countries in interactions with many of the same large players points to risks. It is likely that outcomes in terms of the usual policy criteria (efficiency, equity and fiscal viability) will not be as positive as promised in an environment in which regulation ends up weaker (because it is captured or less specialized). Ignoring these lessons and failing to internalize them in the design of negotiation is likely to cost Europe.

Nonparametric tests of collectively rational consumption behavior: an integer programming procedure

We present an IP-based nonparametric (revealed preference) testing procedure for rational consumption behavior in terms of general collective models, which include consumption externalities and public consumption. An empirical application to data drawn from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) demonstrates the practical usefulness of the procedure. Finally, we present extensions of the testing procedure to evaluate the goodness-of-…t of the collective model subject to testing, and to quantify and improve the power of the corresponding collective rationality tests.

A Monthly Volatility Index for the US Economy

We estimate the monthly volatility of the US economy from 1968 to 2006 by extending the coincidentindex model of Stock and Watson (1991). Our volatility index, which we call VOLINX, hasfour applications. First, it sheds light on the Great Moderation. VOLINX captures the decrease in thevolatility in the mid-80s as well as the different episodes of stress over the sample period. In the 70sand early 80s the stagflation and the two oil crises marked the pace of the volatility whereas 09/11 is themost relevant shock after the moderation. Second, it helps to understand the economic indicators thatcause volatility. While the main determinant of the coincident index is industrial production, VOLINXis mainly affected by employment and income. Third, it adapts the confidence bands of the forecasts.In and out-of-sample evaluations show that the confidence bands may differ up to 50% with respect to amodel with constant variance. Last, the methodology we use permits us to estimate monthly GDP, whichhas conditional volatility that is partly explained by VOLINX. These applications can be used by policymakers for monitoring and surveillance of the stress of the economy.

Censura no governo de Vargas

O presente trabalho tem diferentes objetivos: o primeiro deles é apresentar resultados da pesquisa que vem sendo realizada pelo Observatório de Comunicação, Liberdade de Expressão e Censura (OBCOM-USP), a partir do Arquivo Miroel Silveira da Escola de Comunicações e Artes da Universidade de São Paulo (AMS/ECA-USP), sobre censura aos meios de comunicação e à produção artística. O tema da liberdade de expressão tem se tornado cada vez mais importante para os estudos de comunicação. O segundo objetivo é, relembrando os 60 anos do suicídio do presidente Getúlio Vargas, falar de sua atuação no controle e intervenção sobre a imprensa e a produção artística. Ele foi o criador do sistema de censura que vigorou no Brasil de 1937 a 1988 (quando a Constituição eliminou os órgãos oficiais de censura), através do Departamento de Imprensa e Propaganda (DIP), do qual o Arquivo Miroel Silveira é resultado e exemplo. O terceiro objetivo do presente trabalho é mostrar que a censura moral ou estética é um subterfúgio para o principal intuito de toda censura, que é controlar a produção simbólica e impedir a crítica e a dissidência. Isso será feito através da análise dos documentos do processo 268 de censura prévia da peça Ben-Hur, de 1943, que deveria estrear em São Paulo. Finalmente, o quarto objetivo deste texto é mostrar que a extinção dos órgãos oficiais de censura, a chamada censura “clássica”, não evitou que outros meios indiretos, plurais, particulares e governamentais continuassem a controlar meios de comunicação e manifestações artísticas, impedindo a livre expressão.

Other-Regarding Preferences in General Equilibrium

We study competitive market outcomes in economies where agents have other-regarding preferences. We identify a separability condition on monotone preferences that is necessary and sufficient for one’s own demand to be independent of the allocations and characteristics of other agents in the economy. Given separability, it is impossible to identify other-regarding preferences from market behavior: agents be- have as if they had classical preferences that depend only on own consumption in competitive equilibrium. If preferences, in addition, depend only on the final allocation of consumption in society, the Sec- ond Welfare Theorem holds as long as an increase in resources can be distributed such that all agents are better off. Nevertheless, the First Welfare Theorem generally does not hold. Allowing agents to care about their own consumption and the distribution of consump- tion possibilities in the economy, we provide a condition under which agents have no incentive to make direct transfers, and show that this condition implies that competitive equilibria are efficient given prices.

Fast-Track Authority and International Trade Negotiations

Fast Track Authority (FTA) is the institutional procedure in the Unites States whereby Congress grants to the President the power to negotiate international trade agreements. Under FTA, Congress can only approve or reject negotiated trade deals, with no possibility of amending them. In this paper, we examine the determinants of FTA voting decisions and the implications of this institutional procedure for trade negotiations. We describe a simple two-country trade model, in which industries are unevenly distributed across con- stituencies. In the foreign country, trade negotiating authority is delegated to the executive, while in the home country Congress can retain the power to amend trade agreements. We show that legislators’ FTA voting behavior depends on the trade policy interests of their own constituencies as well as those of the majority of Congress. Empirical analysis of the determinants of all FTA votes between 1974 (when fast track was first introduced) and 2002 (when it was last granted) provides strong support for the predictions of our model.

Democratic Peace and Electoral Accountability

One of the few stylized facts in international relations is that democracies, unlike autoc- racies, very rarely fight each other. We examine the sustainability of international peace between democracies and autocracies, where the crucial difference between these two po- litical regimes is whether or not policymakers are subject to periodic elections. We show that the fear of losing office can deter democratic leaders from engaging in military con- flicts. Crucially, this discipline effect can only be at work if incumbent leaders can be re-elected, implying that democracies in which the executives are subject to term limits should be more conflict prone. To assess the validity of our predictions, we construct a large dataset on countries with executive term limits. Our analysis of inter-state conflicts for the 1816-2001 period suggests that electoral incentives are indeed behind the democratic peace phenomenon: while democratic dyads are in general less likely to be involved in conflicts than any other dyads, this result does not hold for democracies in which the executive faces binding term limits; moreover, the dispute patterns of democracies with term limits depend on whether the executive is in the last or penultimate mandate.

One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation

In elections, majority divisions pave the way to focal manipulations and coordination failures, which can lead to the victory of the wrong candidate. This paper shows how this flaw can be addressed if voter preferences over candidates are sensitive to information. We consider two potential sources of divisions: majority voters may have similar preferences but opposite information about the candidates, or opposite preferences. We show that when information is the source of majority divisions, Approval Voting features a unique equilibrium with full information and coordination equivalence. That is, it produces the same outcome as if both information and coordination problems could be resolved. Other electoral systems, such as Plurality and Two-Round elections, do not satisfy this equivalence. The second source of division is opposite preferences. Whenever the fraction of voters with such preferences is not too large, Approval Voting still satisfies full information and coordination equivalence.

Trade Liberalization and Organizational Change

We embed a simple incomplete-contracts model of organization design in a standard two-country perfectly-competitive trade model to examine how the liberalization of product and factor markets affects the ownership structure of firms.In our model, managers decide whether or not to integrate their firms, trading off the pecuniary benefits of coordinating production decisions with the private benefits of operating in their preferred ways. The price of output is a crucial determinant of this choice, since it affects the size of the pecuniary benefits. In particular, non-integration is chosen at “low” and “high” prices, while integration occurs at moderate prices. Organizational choices also depend on the terms of trade in supplier markets, which affect the division of surplus between managers. We obtain three main results. First, even when firms do not relocate across countries, the price changes triggered by liberalization of product markets can lead to significant organizational restructuring within countries. Second, the removal of barriers to factor mobility can lead to inefficient reorganization and adversely affect consumers. Third, “deep integration” — the liberalization of both product and factor markets — leads to the convergence of organizational design across countries.

Economic well-being and poverty among the elderly: an analysis based on a collective consumption model

We apply the collective consumption model of Browning, Chiappori and Lewbel (2006) to analyse economic well-being and poverty among the elderly. The model focuses on individual preferences, a consumption technology that captures the economies of scale of living in a couple, and a sharing rule that governs the intra-household allocation of resources. The model is applied to a time series of Dutch consumption expenditure surveys. Our empirical results indicate substantial economies of scale and a wifeís share that is increasing in total expenditures. We further calculated poverty rates by means of the collective consumption model. Collective poverty rates of widows and widowers turn out to be slightly lower than traditional ones based on a standard equivalence scale. Poverty among women (men) in elderly couples, however, seems to be heavily underestimated (overestimated) by the traditional approach. Finally, we analysed the impact of becoming a widow(er). Based on cross-sectional evidence, we find that the drop (increase) in material well-being following the husbandís death is substantial for women in high (low) expenditure couples. For men, the picture is reversed.