ELECTRICITY GENERATION MODELING AND PHOTOVOLTAIC FORECASTS IN CHINA

With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979-2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

AGROFORESTRY ADDRESSING SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN PARAGUAY

Paraguay is characterized in part by an economy reliant on a massive soy industry and as facing social and economic challenges resulting from highly inequitable distribution of wealth and land ownership, particularly for smallholder farmers in the rural areas of the country. Yerba mate (Ilex paraguariensis), a native tree of which the leaves are used in tea, has become an increasingly common crop grown among common among smallholder farmers (owners of 10 hectares or less) as a viable alternative to soy production on a small scale. In the rural agricultural community of Libertad del Sur, located in the heart of the severely deforested Bosque Atlántico del Alto-Paraná, a series of development initiatives including tree nurseries and agroforestry projects with yerba mate were implemented with involvement of several governmental and nongovernmental organizations. Research was conducted to identify effectiveness of an agroforestry strategy to promote reforestation activities and sustainable agriculture to achieve economic and subsistence goals of the rural population. Despite a severe drought impacting initial research goals, important lessons are considered regarding promotion of development work within the community as well as community perceptions towards development agencies. Pursuit of compromise between community member and agency goals using sustainable agricultural practices is identified as an effective means to promote mutually beneficial development strategies.

Toxoplasma gondii Infection in Kyrgyzstan: Seroprevalence, Risk Factor Analysis, and Estimate of Congenital and AIDS-Related Toxoplasmosis

Background HIV-prevalence, as well as incidence of zoonotic parasitic diseases like cystic echinococcosis, has increased in the Kyrgyz Republic due to fundamental socio-economic changes after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. The possible impact on morbidity and mortality caused by Toxoplasma gondii infection in congenital toxoplasmosis or as an opportunistic infection in the emerging AIDS pandemic has not been reported from Kyrgyzstan. Methodology/Principal Findings We screened 1,061 rural and 899 urban people to determine the seroprevalence of T. gondii infection in 2 representative but epidemiologically distinct populations in Kyrgyzstan. The rural population was from a typical agricultural district where sheep husbandry is a major occupation. The urban population was selected in collaboration with several diagnostic laboratories in Bishkek, the largest city in Kyrgyzstan. We designed a questionnaire that was used on all rural subjects so a risk-factor analysis could be undertaken. The samples from the urban population were anonymous and only data with regard to age and gender was available. Estimates of putative cases of congenital and AIDS-related toxoplasmosis in the whole country were made from the results of the serology. Specific antibodies (IgG) against Triton X-100 extracted antigens of T. gondii tachyzoites from in vitro cultures were determined by ELISA. Overall seroprevalence of infection with T. gondii in people living in rural vs. urban areas was 6.2% (95%CI: 4.8–7.8) (adjusted seroprevalence based on census figures 5.1%, 95% CI 3.9–6.5), and 19.0% (95%CI: 16.5–21.7) (adjusted 16.4%, 95% CI 14.1–19.3), respectively, without significant gender-specific differences. The seroprevalence increased with age. Independently low social status increased the risk of Toxoplasma seropositivity while increasing numbers of sheep owned decreased the risk of seropositivity. Water supply, consumption of unpasteurized milk products or undercooked meat, as well as cat ownership, had no significant influence on the risk for seropositivity. Conclusions We present a first seroprevalence analysis for human T. gondii infection in the Kyrgyz Republic. Based on these data we estimate that 173 (95% CI 136–216) Kyrgyz children will be born annually to mothers who seroconverted to toxoplasmosis during pregnancy. In addition, between 350 and 1,000 HIV-infected persons are currently estimated to be seropositive for toxoplasmosis. Taken together, this suggests a substantial impact of congenital and AIDS-related symptomatic toxoplasmosis on morbidity and mortality in Kyrgyzstan.

Enhancing Food Sovereignty and Food Security through the Revitalization of Indigenous Knowledge: Experiences from the Bolivian Andes

Endogenous development is defined as development that values primarily locally available resources and the way people organized themselves for that purpose. It is a dynamic and evolving concept that also embraces innovations and complementation from other than endogenous sources of knowledge; however, only as far as they are based on mutual respect and the recognition of cultural and socioeconomic self-determination of each of the parties involved. Experiences that have been systematized in the context of the BioAndes Program are demonstrating that enhancing food security and food sovereignty on the basis of endogenous development can be best achieved by applying a ‘biocultural’ perspective: This means to promote and support actions that are simultaneously valuing biological (fauna, flora, soils, or agrobiodiversity) and sociocultural resources (forms of social organization, local knowledge and skills, norms, and the related worldviews). In Bolivia, that is one of the Latin-American countries with the highest levels of poverty (79% of the rural population) and undernourishment (22% of the total population), the Program BioAndes promotes food sovereignty and food security by revitalizing the knowledge of Andean indigenous people and strengthening their livelihood strategies. This starts by recognizing that Andean people have developed complex strategies to constantly adapt to highly diverse and changing socioenvironmental conditions. These strategies are characterized by organizing the communities, land use and livelihoods along a vertical gradient of the available eco-climatic zones; the resulting agricultural systems are evolving around the own sociocultural values of reciprocity and mutual cooperation, giving thus access to an extensive variety of food, fiber and energy sources. As the influences of markets, competition or individualization are increasingly affecting the life in the communities, people became aware of the need to find a new balance between endogenous and exogenous forms of knowledge. In this context, BioAndes starts by recognizing the wealth and potentials of local practices and aims to integrate its actions into the ongoing endogenous processes of innovation and adaptation. In order to avoid external impositions and biases, the program intervenes on the basis of a dialogue between exogenous, mainly scientific, and indigenous forms of knowledge. The paper presents an analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of enhancing endogenous development through a dialogue between scientific and indigenous knowledge by specifically focusing on its effects on food sovereignty and food security in three ‘biocultural’ rural areas of the Bolivian highlands. The paper shows how the dialogue between different forms of knowledge evolved alongside the following project activities: 1) recuperation and renovation of local seeds and crop varieties (potato – Solanum spp., quinoa – Chenopodium quinoa, cañahua – Chenopodium pallidicaule); 2) support for the elaboration of community-based norms and regulations for governing access and distribution of non-timber forest products, such as medicinal, fodder, and construction plants; 3) revitalization of ethnoveterinary knowledge for sheep and llama breeding; 4) improvement of local knowledge about the transformation of food products (sheep-cheese, lacayote – Cucurbita sp. - jam, dried llama meat, fours of cañahua and other Andean crops). The implementation of these activities fostered the community-based livelihoods of indigenous people by complementing them with carefully and jointly designed innovations based on internal and external sources of knowledge and resources. Through this process, the epistemological and ontological basis that underlies local practices was made visible. On this basis, local and external actors started to jointly define a renewed concept of food security and food sovereignty that, while oriented in the notions of well being according to a collectively re-crafted world view, was incorporating external contributions as well. Enabling and hindering factors, actors and conditions of these processes are discussed in the paper.

Understanding deforestation and forest fragmentation from a livelihood perspective

Worldwide, forests provide a wide variety of resources to rural inhabitants, and especially to the poor. In Madagascar, forest resources make important contributions to the livelihoods of the rural population living at the edges of these forests. Although people benefit from forest resources, forests are continuously cleared and converted into arable land. Despite long-term efforts on the part of researchers, development cooperation projects and government, Madagascar has not been able to achieve a fundamental decrease in deforestation. The question of why deforestation continues in spite of such efforts remains. To answer this question, we aimed at understanding deforestation and forest fragmentation from the perspective of rural households in the Manompana corridor on the east coast. Applying a sustainable livelihood approach, we explored local social-ecological systems to understand: (i) how livelihood strategies leading to deforestation evolve and (ii) how the decrease of forest impacts on households' strategies. Results highlight the complexity of the environmental, cultural and political context in which households’ decision-making takes place. Further, we found crucial impacts of deforestation and forest fragmentation on livelihood systems, but also recognized that people have been able to adapt to the changing landscapes without major impacts on their welfare.

Economic analysis of soil conservation: Case studies from the highlands of Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Soil degradation is widespread in the Ethiopian Highlands. Its negative impacts on soil productivity contribute to the extreme poverty of the rural population. Soil conservation is propagated as a means of reducing soil erosion, however, it is a costly investment for small-scale farming households. The present study is an attempt to show whether or not selected mechanical Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) technologies are profitable from a farmer’s point of view. A financial Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is carried out to assess whether or not the considered SWC technologies are profitable from a farmer’s point of view. The CBA is supplemented by an evaluation of aspects from the economic and institutional environment. Whether or not soil conservation is profitable from a farmer’s point of view depends on a broad range of factors from the ecological, economic, political, institutional and socio-cultural sphere and also depends on the technology and the prevailing farming system. Because these factors are closely interlinked, it is often not sufficient to change or influence one to make SWC profitable. Several recommendations are formulated with regard to improving the profitability of SWC investments from a farmer’s point of view. Because the reasons for unsustainable resource use are manifold and highly interlinked, only a multi-stakeholder, multi-level and multi-objective approach is likely to offer solutions that address the underlying problems adequately.

Classification criteria and commercial profile re-definition of the Family Farm Agriculture in Chile, Maule region

In Chile, small-scale farmers are classified according to old approaches from 1993 that do not include changes occurred in the last two decades. Maule is the region with most rural population in Chile which represents a significant stratum for development, innovation and competitiveness. This study explores a new approach of small-scale farmers -associated with Family Farm Agriculture (AFC) - classification in Chile and it describes a commercial profile or AFC-1 for famers of the Maule Region. A Cluster analysis to determine AFC-1 farmers is used. The analysis includes four association variables: Total Assets, Farm Income, Production Costs and Management Indicators. The results suggest that 16.4% of the farmers have a commercial profile and they could stay out support provided by the National Institute for Agricultural Development (INDAP). This group of farmers would not belong to AFC in short terms. This fact could bring restriction to AFC-1 farmers such as lack of credit access, less investment incentives and technical assistance. Thus, it would expect low process of technology adoption and welfare improvement. New agrarian policies must be warranted to support this important group of famers with a commercial profile.

Proyecto de Desarrollo Inteligente Departamento Burruyacu - Tucumán Propuesta integrada con distintos actores institucionales a partir de mesa de gestión territorial

El presente proyecto 'Desarrollo Inteligente del Departamento Burruyacu - Tucumán' elaborado en base a un diagnostico participativo que dio como resultado, 'ex ante', el poder identificar una realidad con una problemática de territorio, basada en las siguientes dimensiones: a) Ambientales y de infraestructura, b) Organizacionales y económicos, c) De competitividad, en las economías locales, d) Educativos y de articulación institucional. Las posibilidades de avanzar en proyectos que contemplen solo las inherentes a inversiones productivas no tenían un origen genuino en el espíritu emprendedor de los habitantes y productores de la zona Este del Departamento (Gobernador Piedrabuena, Gobernador Garmendia y 7 de Abril) pero si se pudo identificar un importante sector de potenciales productores porcinos, bovinos de carne y avícolas, - cadenas no relevantes en la zona -, más un gran número de productores agrícolas -pequeños y medianos- en plena actividad, pero con nulas experiencias en producción pecuaria. Con esto, la provincia a través de sus herramientas de políticas publicas, puso la mirada en la concepción de estos nuevos enfoques de desarrollo territorial, con proyectos que posibilitarán desarrollar con equidad y sustentabilidad dicha zona profundizando los 4 ejes estratégicos. El concepto de desarrollo de los territorios, incluidos en el ámbito rural, se ha asociado tradicionalmente a la búsqueda de viabilidad de las zonas más alejadas, poco accesibles y que sufren distintas formas de marginalidad. Sin embargo, la ruralidad ha cambiado de manera significativa. Entre los cambios identificados por diferentes autores (Sarraceno, 1994; Pérez, 2001; Echeverri y Ribeiro, 2002), se destacan: a) el incremento en la importancia de las actividades no agrícolas como generadoras de empleo e ingresos para la población rural; b) la creciente integración de los espacios urbanos y rurales; c) la importancia de integrar las preocupaciones por la gestión sostenible del ambiente y de los recursos naturales; d) las transformaciones en la institucionalidad rural; e) el reconocimiento de la importancia de nuevos actores sociales; f) las nuevas y mayores expectativas de los consumidores y de los mercados; g) el papel de las nuevas tecnologías de información y comunicación, h)la persistencia de la pobreza rural y la desigualdad, i) la persistencia de brechas regionales y sectoriales

Intervención y organización campesina : El caso de Copacabana en la provincia de Córdoba (Argentina)

La mayoría de los autores que trabajan la temática del desarrollo rural coinciden en que la organización de los productores es imprescindible para que los pobladores rurales puedan convertirse en actores de su propio desarrollo. Dado que la organización es una condición necesaria para el desarrollo rural, el problema consiste en establecer los caminos metodológicos más adecuados para promoverla. Situándonos en Copacabana, localidad rural serrana ubicada en el norte de la provincia de Córdoba, nos preguntamos: ¿cómo manejan las familias campesinas la tensión entre la estrategia individual y la acción colectiva para resolver sus problemas? Concluimos que, no resulta fácil que las familias campesinas realicen las inversiones sociales necesarias para establecer una organización duradera. El solo deseo por obtener los beneficios derivados de la organización no es suficiente. Se requiere además un adecuado balance entre las tendencias individualistas de sus miembros y las necesidades colectivas. Para resolver esta tensión a favor de una organización estable, se requiere generar un proceso de construcción participativa, que permita (a) que el grupo se comprometa con los objetivos inicialmente propuestos y que tenga capacidad para modificarlos; y (b) establecer reglas de acceso y mecanismos de control social claras, aceptadas y compartidas por sus integrantes. En muchos casos, este proceso puede ser favorecido por el acompañamiento de actores sociales externos

Balance del modelo agroexportador en América Latina al comenzar el siglo XXI

El propósito de este escrito es ofrecer un panorama del momento por el que atraviesa hoy la agricultura regional, revisando algunos de sus saldos agregados. Nos interesa debatir el tono optimista y acrítico con que se divulgan las cifras y poner en evidencia aspectos menos difundidos, pero de suma importancia para el presente y futuro de la región. Para comenzar nos referimos al contexto general en que se suscitan las transformaciones en el modelo de crecimiento de la región y sus pretensiones. Enseguida nos ocupamos de la agricultura, enfocados en el contenido común de los proyectos nacionales, para revisar luego algunas de sus secuelas. Concluimos con algunas reflexiones sobre el significado de estos cambios para la expansión del capital en tanto sistema y para la población rural involucrada.

Análisis y pautas para el mejoramiento socioeconómico de los productores del oeste pampeano

En la zona comprendida entre las isoyetas de 500 mm a 300 mm, perteneciente a la provincia fitogeográfica del Monte, una población rural de 6.845 habitantes, 9 del total provincial, con una densidad de 0,2 hab /km2, habita los cinco departamentos del centro y extremo oeste de La Pampa, cuya superficie abarca el 38 de la provincia. Su economía de subsistencia se desarrolla sobre campos naturales, con una ganadería de bovinos, caprinos, ovinos y equinos. La población presenta un alto grado de dispersión y un significativo aislamiento respecto de los centros más poblados. El objetivo a cumplir, modificar las condiciones de vida de los "crianceros", hace necesaria la aplicación de pautas que permitan convertir estas economías de subsistencia en pequeños emprendimientos ganaderos con aceptables índices de rentabilidad mediante el uso más eficiente del medio y sus recursos. Esta estructura productiva ha de permitir una relación más solidaria entre los ganaderos, una mayor libertad en la toma de decisiones y una mayor independencia económica. La consolidación estable de este proyecto y el logro de sus objetivos redundarán en un mejor manejo del ecosistema, así como en un marcado mejoramiento de la calidad de vida de estos alejados productores rurales.

Intervención y organización campesina : El caso de Copacabana en la provincia de Córdoba (Argentina)

La mayoría de los autores que trabajan la temática del desarrollo rural coinciden en que la organización de los productores es imprescindible para que los pobladores rurales puedan convertirse en actores de su propio desarrollo. Dado que la organización es una condición necesaria para el desarrollo rural, el problema consiste en establecer los caminos metodológicos más adecuados para promoverla. Situándonos en Copacabana, localidad rural serrana ubicada en el norte de la provincia de Córdoba, nos preguntamos: ¿cómo manejan las familias campesinas la tensión entre la estrategia individual y la acción colectiva para resolver sus problemas? Concluimos que, no resulta fácil que las familias campesinas realicen las inversiones sociales necesarias para establecer una organización duradera. El solo deseo por obtener los beneficios derivados de la organización no es suficiente. Se requiere además un adecuado balance entre las tendencias individualistas de sus miembros y las necesidades colectivas. Para resolver esta tensión a favor de una organización estable, se requiere generar un proceso de construcción participativa, que permita (a) que el grupo se comprometa con los objetivos inicialmente propuestos y que tenga capacidad para modificarlos; y (b) establecer reglas de acceso y mecanismos de control social claras, aceptadas y compartidas por sus integrantes. En muchos casos, este proceso puede ser favorecido por el acompañamiento de actores sociales externos

Balance del modelo agroexportador en América Latina al comenzar el siglo XXI

El propósito de este escrito es ofrecer un panorama del momento por el que atraviesa hoy la agricultura regional, revisando algunos de sus saldos agregados. Nos interesa debatir el tono optimista y acrítico con que se divulgan las cifras y poner en evidencia aspectos menos difundidos, pero de suma importancia para el presente y futuro de la región. Para comenzar nos referimos al contexto general en que se suscitan las transformaciones en el modelo de crecimiento de la región y sus pretensiones. Enseguida nos ocupamos de la agricultura, enfocados en el contenido común de los proyectos nacionales, para revisar luego algunas de sus secuelas. Concluimos con algunas reflexiones sobre el significado de estos cambios para la expansión del capital en tanto sistema y para la población rural involucrada.

Análisis y pautas para el mejoramiento socioeconómico de los productores del oeste pampeano

En la zona comprendida entre las isoyetas de 500 mm a 300 mm, perteneciente a la provincia fitogeográfica del Monte, una población rural de 6.845 habitantes, 9 del total provincial, con una densidad de 0,2 hab /km2, habita los cinco departamentos del centro y extremo oeste de La Pampa, cuya superficie abarca el 38 de la provincia. Su economía de subsistencia se desarrolla sobre campos naturales, con una ganadería de bovinos, caprinos, ovinos y equinos. La población presenta un alto grado de dispersión y un significativo aislamiento respecto de los centros más poblados. El objetivo a cumplir, modificar las condiciones de vida de los "crianceros", hace necesaria la aplicación de pautas que permitan convertir estas economías de subsistencia en pequeños emprendimientos ganaderos con aceptables índices de rentabilidad mediante el uso más eficiente del medio y sus recursos. Esta estructura productiva ha de permitir una relación más solidaria entre los ganaderos, una mayor libertad en la toma de decisiones y una mayor independencia económica. La consolidación estable de este proyecto y el logro de sus objetivos redundarán en un mejor manejo del ecosistema, así como en un marcado mejoramiento de la calidad de vida de estos alejados productores rurales.