Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Partial agonists of the [alpha]3[beta]4[ast] neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptor reduce ethanol consumption and seeking in rats

Alcohol use disorders (AUDs) impact millions of individuals and there remain few effective treatment strategies. Despite evidence that neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs) have a role in AUDs, it has not been established which subtypes of the nAChR are involved. Recent human genetic association studies have implicated the gene cluster CHRNA3-CHRNA5-CHRNB4 encoding the α3, α5, and β4 subunits of the nAChR in susceptibility to develop nicotine and alcohol dependence; however, their role in ethanol-mediated behaviors is unknown due to the lack of suitable and selective research tools. To determine the role of the α3, and β4 subunits of the nAChR in ethanol self-administration, we developed and characterized high-affinity partial agonists at α3β4 nAChRs, CP-601932, and PF-4575180. Both CP-601932 and PF-4575180 selectively decrease ethanol but not sucrose consumption and operant self-administration following long-term exposure. We show that the functional potencies of CP-601932 and PF-4575180 at α3β4 nAChRs correlate with their unbound rat brain concentrations, suggesting that the effects on ethanol self-administration are mediated via interaction with α3β4 nAChRs. Also varenicline, an approved smoking cessation aid previously shown to decrease ethanol consumption and seeking in rats and mice, reduces ethanol intake at unbound brain concentrations that allow functional interactions with α3β4 nAChRs. Furthermore, the selective α4β2(*) nAChR antagonist, DHβE, did not reduce ethanol intake. Together, these data provide further support for the human genetic association studies, implicating CHRNA3 and CHRNB4 genes in ethanol-mediated behaviors. CP-601932 has been shown to be safe in humans and may represent a potential novel treatment for AUDs.

GABAergic modification of myopic and hyperopic ocular tissue effects on scleral fibroblast growth

Purpose: Myopia is a common eye disorder affecting up to 90% of children in South East Asia and 30% of the population worldwide. Myopia of high severity is a leading cause of blindness around the world (4th to 5th most common). Changes and remodelling of the sclera i.e. increase cellular proliferation & increase protein synthesis within scleral cells (↑ scleral DNA) and thinning and lose of extracellular matrix of sclera (↓ scleral GAG synthesis) have been linked to myopic eye growth in animal models. Signals acting on the sclera are thought to originate in the retina, and are modulated by the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) with limited evidence suggesting that the RPE can modify scleral cell growth in culture. However, the mechanism of retinal signal transmission and the role of posterior eye cup tissue, including the RPE, in mediating changes in scleral fibroblast growth during myopia development are unclear. Retinal transmitter systems are critically involved in pathways regulating eye growth, which ultimately lead to alterations in the sclera if eye size is to change. A dopaminergic agonist and muscarinic antagonists decrease the proliferation of scleral chondrocytes when co-cultured with chick’s retinal pigment epithelium (RPE). GABA receptors have recently been localised to chick sclera. We therefore hypothesised that posterior eye cup tissue from myopic eyes would stimulate and from hyperopic eyes would inhibit growth of scleral fibroblasts in vitro and that GABAergic agents could directly interact with scleral cells or indirectly modify the effects of myopic and hyperopic posterior eye cup tissue on scleral fibroblast growth. Method: Fibroblastic cells obtained from 8-day-old chick sclera were used to establish cell banks. Two major experiments were performed. Experiment 1: To determine if posterior eye cup tissues from myopic eye stimulates and hyperopic eye inhibits scleral cell proliferation, when co-cultured with scleral cells in vitro. This study comprised two linked experiments, i) monocular visual treatments of FDM (form-deprivation myopia), LIM (lens-induced myopia) and LIH (lens-induced hyperopia) with assessment of the effect of full punch eye cup tissue on DNA and GAG synthesis by cultured chick scleral fibroblasts, and ii) binocular visual treatments comprising LIM and LIH with assessment of the effect of individual layers of eye cup tissues (neural retina, RPE and choroid) on cultured chick scleral fibroblasts. Visual treatment was applied for 3 days. Experiment 2: To determine the direct interaction of GABA agents on scleral cell growth and to establish whether GABA agents modify the stimulatory/inhibitory effect of myopic and hyperopic posterior eye cup tissues on cultured scleral cell growth in vitro. Two linked experiments were performed. i) GABA agonists (muscimol and baclofen) and GABA antagonists (bicuculine (-), CGP46381 and TPMPA) were added to scleral cell culture medium to determine their direct effect on scleral cells. ii) GABAergic agents (agonists and antagonists) were administered to scleral fibroblasts co-cultured with posterior eye cup tissue (retina, RPE, retina/RPE, RPE/choroid). Ocular tissues were obtained from chick eyes wearing +15D (LIH) or -15D lenses (LIM) for 3 days. In both experiments, tissues were added to hanging cell culture insert (pore size 1.0ìm) placed over each well of 24 well plates while scleral cells were cultured in DMEM/F12, Glutamax (Gibco) plus 10% FBS and penicillin/streptomycin (50U/ml)) and fungizone (1.25ug/ml) (Gibco), at seeding density of 30,000 cells/well at the bottom of the well and allowed to grow for 3 days. Scleral cells proliferation rate throughout the study was evaluated by determining GAG and DNA content of scleral cells using Dimethylmethylene blue (DMMB) dye and Quant-iTTm Pico Green® dsDNA reagent respectively. Results and analysis: Based on DNA and GAG content, there was no significant difference in tissue effect of LIM and LIH eyes on scleral fibroblast growth (DNA: 8.4 ± 1.1μg versus 9.3 ± 2.3 μg, p=0.23; GAG: 10.13 ± 1.4 μg versus 12.67 ± 1.2 μg, F2,23=6.16, p=0.0005) when tissues were obtained from monocularly treated chick eyes (FDM or +15D lens or -15D lens over right eyes with left eyes untreated) and co-cultured as full punch. When chick eyes were treated binocularly with -15D lens (LIM) right eye and +15D lens (LIH) left eyes and tissue layers were separated, the retina from LIM eyes did not stimulate scleral cell proliferation compared to LIH eyes (DNA: 27.2 ± 6.7 μg versus 23.2 ± 1.5 μg, p=0.23; GAG: 28.1 ±3.7 μg versus 28.7 ± 4.2 μg, p=0.21). Similarly, the LIH and LIM choroid did not produce a differential effect based on DNA (LIM 46.9 ± 6.4 μg versus LIH 53.5 ± 4.7 μg, p=0.18), however the choroid from LIH eyes induced higher scleral GAG content than from LIM eyes (32.5 ± 6.7 μg versus 18.9 ± 1.2 μg, p=0.023). In contrast, the RPE from LIM eyes caused a significant increase in fibroblast proliferation whereas the RPE from LIH eyes was relatively inhibitory (72.4 ± 6.3 μg versus 27.9 ± 2.3 μg, F1, 6=69.99, p=0.0005). GAG data were opposite to DNA data e.g. the RPE from LIH eyes increased (33.7 ± 7.9 μg) while the RPE from LIM eyes decreased (28.2 ± 3.0 μg) scleral cell growth (F1, 6=13.99, p=0.010). Based on DNA content, GABA agents had a small direct effect on scleral cell growth; GABA agonists increased (21.4 ± 1.0% and 18.3 ± 1.0% with muscimol and baclofen, p=0.0021), whereas GABA antagonists decreased fibroblast proliferation (-23.7 ± 0.9% with bicuculine & CGP46381 and -28.1 ± 0.5% with TPMPA, p=0.0004). GABA agents also modified the effect of LIM and LIH tissues (p=0.0005).The increase in proliferation rate of scleral fibroblasts co-cultured with tissues (RPE, retina, RPE/retina and RPE/choroid) from LIM treated eyes was enhanced by GABA agonists (muscimol: 27.4 ± 1.2%, 35.8 ± 1.6%, 8.4 ± 0.3% and 11.9 ± 0.6%; baclofen: 27.0 ± 1.0%, 15.8 ± 1.5%, 16.8 ± 1.2% and 15.4 ± 0.4%, p=0.014) whereas GABA antagonists further reduced scleral fibroblasts growth (bicuculine: -52.5 ± 2.5%, -36.9 ± 1.4%, -37.5 ± 0.6% and -53.7 ± 0.9%; TPMPA: 57.3 ± 1.3%, -15.7 ± 1.2%, -33.5 ± 0.4% and -45.9 ± 1.5%; CGP46381: -51.9 ± 1.6%, -28.5 ± 1.5%, -25.4 ± 2.0% and -45.5 ± 1.9% respectively, p=0.0034). GAG data were opposite to DNA data throughout the experiment e.g. GABA agonists further inhibited while antagonists relatively enhanced scleral fibroblasts growth for both LIM and LIH tissue co-culture. The effect of GABA agents was relatively lower (p=0.0004) for tissue from LIH versus LIM eyes but was in a similar direction. There was a significant drug effect on all four tissue types e.g. RPE, retina, RPE/retina and RPE/choroid for both LIM and LIH tissue co-culture (F20,92=3.928, p=0.0005). However, the effect of GABA agents was greatest in co-culture with RPE tissue (F18,36=4.865, p=0.0005). Summary and Conclusion: 1) Retinal defocus signals are transferred to RPE and choroid which then exert their modifying effect on scleral GAG and DNA synthesis either through growth stimulating factors or directly interacting with scleral cells in process of scleral remodeling during LIM and LIH visual conditions. 2) GABAergic agents affect the proliferation of scleral fibroblasts both directly and when co-cultured with ocular tissues in vitro.

The asthmatic athlete, inhaled beta agonists, and performance

INTRODUCTION: The large increase in the number of athletes who apply to use inhaled beta agonists (IBAs) at the Olympic Games is a concern to the medical community. This review will examine the use of IBAs in the asthmatic athlete, the variability that exists between countries and sport, and outline a plan to justify the use of these medications. DATA SOURCES: Much of this article is a result of an International Olympic Committee (IOC) Medical Commission-sponsored meeting that took place in May 2001. Records of the use of IBAs at previous Olympics were reviewed. MEDLINE Searches (PubMed interface) were performed using key words to locate published work relating to asthma, elite athletes, performance, treatment, and ergogenic aids. MAIN RESULTS: Since 1984 there have been significant increases in the use of IBAs at the Olympic Games as well as marked geographical differences in the percentage of athletes requesting the use of IBAs. There are large differences in the incidence of IBA use between sports with a trend towards increased use in endurance sports. There are no ergogenic effects of any IOC-approved IBA given in a therapeutic dose. CONCLUSIONS: In many cases, the prescription of IBAs to this population has been made on empirical grounds. Beginning with the 2002 Winter Games, athletes will be required to submit to the IOC Medical Commission clinical and laboratory evidence that justifies the use of this medication. The eucapnic voluntary hyperpnea test will be used to assess individuals who have not satisfied an independent medical panel of the need to use an IBA.

Cytokine synthesis by intestinal intraepithelial lymphocytes. Both gamma/delta T cell receptor-positive and alpha/beta T cell receptor-positive T cells in the G1 phase of cell cycle produce IFN-gamma and IL-5

Murine intestinal intraepithelial lymphocytes (IEL) have been shown to contain subsets of alpha/beta TCR+ and gamma/delta TCR+ T cells that spontaneously produce cytokines such as IFN-gamma and IL-5. We have now determined the nature and cell cycle stage of these cytokine-producing T lymphocytes in EIL by using IFN-gamma- and IL-5-specific ELISPOT assay, cytokine-specific mRNA-cDNA dot-blot hybridization and polymerase chain reaction, and flow cytometry (FACS) for DNA analysis. When CD3+ T cells from IEL of normal C3H/HeN mice were separated into low and high density fractions by discontinuous Percoll gradients, IFN-gamma and IL-5 spot-forming cells were only found in the former population. Analysis of mRNA for these cytokines by both IFN-gamma- and IL-5-specific dot-blot hybridization and polymerase chain reaction revealed that higher levels of message for IFN-gamma and IL-5 were also seen in the low density fraction. However, cell cycle analysis of these two fractions by FACS using propidium iodide showed a similar pattern of cell cycle stages in both low and high density populations (G0 + G1 approximately 96 to 98% and S/G2 + M approximately 2 to 4%). Finally, mRNA from gamma/delta TCR+ and alpha/beta TCR+ T cells in both low and high density fractions of IEL were analyzed for IFN-gamma and IL-5 message by polymerase chain reaction. After 35 cycles of amplification, both gamma/delta TCR+ and alpha/beta TCR+ T cells in the low density fraction expressed higher levels of message for these two cytokines when compared with the high density population. These results have now shown that both gamma/delta and alpha/beta TCR+ IEL can be separated into low and high density subsets and both fractions possess a similar stage of cell cycle. However, only the low density cells (in G1 phase) of both gamma/delta and alpha/beta TCR types possess increased cytokine-specific mRNA and produce the cytokines IFN-gamma and IL-5. Our results suggest that alpha/beta TCR+ and gamma/delta TCR+ IEL can produce cytokines without cell proliferation.

Molecular characterisation and expression analysis of interferon gamma in response to natural chlamydia infection in the koala, phascolarctos cinereus

Interferon gamma (IFNγ) is a key Th1 cytokine, with a principal role in the immune response against intracellular organisms such as Chlamydia. Along with being responsible for significant morbidity in human populations, Chlamydia is also responsible for wide spread infection and disease in many animal hosts, with reports that many Australian koala subpopulations are endemically infected. An understanding of the role played by IFNγ in koala chlamydial diseases is important for the establishment of better prophylactic and therapeutic approaches against chlamydial infection in this host. A limited number of IFNγ sequences have been published from marsupials and no immune reagents to measure expression have been developed. Through preliminary analysis of the koala transcriptome, we have identified the full coding sequence of the koala IFNγ gene. Transcripts were identified in spleen and lymph node tissue samples. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that koala IFNγ is closely related to other marsupial IFNγ sequences and more distantly related to eutherian mammals. To begin to characterise the role of this important cytokine in the koala's response to chlamydial infection, we developed a quantitative real time PCR assay and applied it to a small cohort of koalas with and without active chlamydial disease, revealing significant differences in expression patterns between the groups. Description of the IFNγ sequence from the koala will not only assist in understanding this species' response to its most important pathogen but will also provide further insight into the evolution of the marsupial immune system