884 resultados para Bias, Confounding, Epidemiology, Meta-analysis, Selective reporting


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OBJECTIVE: Meta-analysis of studies of the accuracy of diagnostic tests currently uses a variety of methods. Statistically rigorous hierarchical models require expertise and sophisticated software. We assessed whether any of the simpler methods can in practice give adequately accurate and reliable results. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We reviewed six methods for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy: four simple commonly used methods (simple pooling, separate random-effects meta-analyses of sensitivity and specificity, separate meta-analyses of positive and negative likelihood ratios, and the Littenberg-Moses summary receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve) and two more statistically rigorous approaches using hierarchical models (bivariate random-effects meta-analysis and hierarchical summary ROC curve analysis). We applied the methods to data from a sample of eight systematic reviews chosen to illustrate a variety of patterns of results. RESULTS: In each meta-analysis, there was substantial heterogeneity between the results of different studies. Simple pooling of results gave misleading summary estimates of sensitivity and specificity in some meta-analyses, and the Littenberg-Moses method produced summary ROC curves that diverged from those produced by more rigorous methods in some situations. CONCLUSION: The closely related hierarchical summary ROC curve or bivariate models should be used as the standard method for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy.

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OBJECTIVES: To synthesize the evidence on the risk of HIV transmission through unprotected sexual intercourse according to viral load and treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and conference abstracts from 1996-2009. We included longitudinal studies of serodiscordant couples reporting on HIV transmission according to plasma viral load or use of ART and used random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary transmission rates [with 95% confidence intervals, (CI)]. If there were no transmission events we estimated an upper 97.5% confidence limit. RESULTS: We identified 11 cohorts reporting on 5021 heterosexual couples and 461 HIV-transmission events. The rate of transmission overall from ART-treated patients was 0.46 (95% CI 0.19-1.09) per 100 person-years, based on five events. The transmission rate from a seropositive partner with viral load below 400 copies/ml on ART, based on two studies, was zero with an upper 97.5% confidence limit of 1.27 per 100 person-years, and 0.16 (95% CI 0.02-1.13) per 100 person-years if not on ART, based on five studies and one event. There were insufficient data to calculate rates according to the presence or absence of sexually transmitted infections, condom use, or vaginal or anal intercourse. CONCLUSION: Studies of heterosexual discordant couples observed no transmission in patients treated with ART and with viral load below 400 copies/ml, but data were compatible with one transmission per 79 person-years. Further studies are needed to better define the risk of HIV transmission from patients on ART.

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Background: Clinical trials and meta-analyses have produced conflicting results of the efficacy of unconjugated pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine in adults. We sought to evaluate the vaccine’s efficacy on clinical outcomes as well as the methodologic quality of the trials. Methods: We searched several databases and all bibliographies of reviews and meta-analyses for clinical trials that compared pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine with a control. We examined rates of pneumonia and death, taking the methodologic quality of the trials into consideration. Results: We included 22 trials involving 101 507 participants: 11 trials reported on presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia, 19 on all-cause pneumonia and 12 on allcause mortality. The current 23-valent vaccine was used in 8 trials. The relative risk (RR) was 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–0.96) for presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia and 0.73 (95% CI 0.56–0.94) for all-cause pneumonia. There was significant heterogeneity between the trials reporting on presumptive pneumonia (I2 = 74%, p < 0.001) and between those reporting on all-cause pneumonia (I2 = 90%, p < 0.001). The RR for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% CI 0.87–1.09), with moderate heterogeneity between trials (I2 = 44%, p = 0.053). Trial quality, especially regarding double blinding, explained a substantial proportion of the heterogeneity in the trials reporting on presumptive pneumonia and all-cause pneumonia. There was little evidence of vaccine protection in trials of higher methodologic quality (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.75–1.92, for presumptive pneumonia; and 1.19, 95% CI 0.95–1.49, for allcause pneumonia in double-blind trials; p for heterogeneity > 0.05). The results for all-cause mortality in double-blind trials were similar to those in all trials combined. There was little evidence of vaccine protection among elderly patients or adults with chronic illness in analyses of all trials (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.78–1.38, for presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia; 0.89, 95% CI 0.69–1.14, for all-cause pneumonia; and 1.00, 95% CI 0.87–1.14, for all-cause mortality). Interpretation: Pneumococcal vaccination does not appear to be effective in preventing pneumonia, even in populations for whom the vaccine is currently recommended.

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INTRODUCTION Light cure of resin-based adhesives is the mainstay of orthodontic bonding. In recent years, alternatives to conventional halogen lights offering reduced curing time and the potential for lower attachment failure rates have emerged. The relative merits of curing lights in current use, including halogen-based lamps, light-emitting diodes (LEDs), and plasma arc lights, have not been analyzed systematically. In this study, we reviewed randomized controlled trials and controlled clinical trials to assess the risks of attachment failure and bonding time in orthodontic patients in whom brackets were cured with halogen lights, LEDs, or plasma arc systems. METHODS Multiple electronic database searches were undertaken, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Oral Health Group's Trials Register, CENTRAL. Language restrictions were not applied. Unpublished literature was searched on ClinicalTrials.gov, the National Research Register, Pro-Quest Dissertation Abstracts, and Thesis database. Search terms included randomized controlled trial, controlled clinical trial, random allocation, double blind method, single blind method, orthodontics, LED, halogen, bond, and bracket. Authors of primary studies were contacted as required, and reference lists of the included studies were screened. RESULTS Randomized controlled trials and clinical controlled trials directly comparing conventional halogen lights, LEDs, or plasma arc systems involving patients with full arch, fixed, or bonded orthodontic appliances (not banded) with follow-up periods of a minimum of 6 months were included. Using predefined forms, 2 authors undertook independent extraction of articles; disagreements were resolved by discussion. The assessment of the risk of bias of the randomized controlled trials was based on the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Ten studies met the inclusion criteria; 2 were excluded because of high risk of bias. In the comparison of bond failure risk with halogen lights and plasma arc lights, 1851 brackets were included in both groups. Little statistical heterogeneity was observed in this analysis (I(2) = 4.8%; P = 0.379). There was no statistical difference in bond failure risk between the groups (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.68-1.23; prediction intervals, 0.54, 1.56). Similarly, no statistical difference in bond failure risk was observed in the meta-analysis comparing halogen lights and LEDs (OR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.64-1.44; prediction intervals, 0.07, 13.32). The pooled estimates from both comparisons were OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.74-1.17; and prediction intervals, 0.69, 1.17. CONCLUSIONS There is no evidence to support the use of 1 light cure type over another based on risk of attachment failure.

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Lacebacks may be used to limit unwanted incisor proclination during initial orthodontic alignment; however, their use has not met with universal approval. This systematic review aims to appraise the evidence in relation to the effectiveness of lacebacks in controlling incisor position during initial alignment. Electronic database searches of published literature (MEDLINE via Ovid, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, LILACS, and IBECS) and unpublished literature were performed. Search terms used included randomized controlled trial, controlled clinical trial, random allocation, double blind method, orthodontics, and laceback. Data were extracted using custom forms. Risk of bias assessment was made using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool. The quality of the evidence was also assessed using GRADE. Mean differences in incisor inclination and antero-posterior changes in incisor and molar position during alignment were calculated. Two studies involving 97 participants were found to be at low risk of bias and were included in the quantitative synthesis. The random effects meta-analysis demonstrated that the use of lacebacks was associated with 0.5 mm greater posterior movement of the incisors during alignment; this finding was of limited clinical importance and statistically non-significant [95 per cent confidence interval (CI): -1.25, 0.25, P = 0.19]. Little difference (0.46 mm) was also found between laceback and non-laceback groups with regards to mesial molar movement (95 per cent CI: -0.33, 1.24, P = 0.26). According to the GRADE assessment, the overall quality of evidence relating to the use of lacebacks was high. There is no evidence to support the use of lacebacks for the control of the sagittal position of the incisors during initial orthodontic alignment.

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OBJECTIVES To synthesise the available evidence on pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions recommended for fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS). METHODS Electronic databases including MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Scopus, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Registry and the Cochrane Library were searched for randomised controlled trials comparing any therapeutic approach as recommended in FMS guidelines (except complementary and alternative medicine) with control interventions in patients with FMS. Primary outcomes were pain and quality of life. Data extraction was done using standardised forms. RESULTS 102 trials in 14 982 patients and eight active interventions (tricyclic antidepressants, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors, serotonin noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs), the gamma-amino butyric acid analogue pregabalin, aerobic exercise, balneotherapy, cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), multicomponent therapy) were included. Most of the trials were small and hampered by methodological quality, introducing heterogeneity and inconsistency in the network. When restricted to large trials with ≥100 patients per group, heterogeneity was low and benefits for SNRIs and pregabalin compared with placebo were statistically significant, but small and not clinically relevant. For non-pharmacological interventions, only one large trial of CBT was available. In medium-sized trials with ≥50 patients per group, multicomponent therapy showed small to moderate benefits over placebo, followed by aerobic exercise and CBT. CONCLUSIONS Benefits of pharmacological treatments in FMS are of questionable clinical relevance and evidence for benefits of non-pharmacological interventions is limited. A combination of pregabalin or SNRIs as pharmacological interventions and multicomponent therapy, aerobic exercise and CBT as non-pharmacological interventions seems most promising for the management of FMS.

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Recent evidence suggests that transition risks from initial clinical high risk (CHR) status to psychosis are decreasing. The role played by remission in this context is mostly unknown. The present study addresses this issue by means of a meta-analysis including eight relevant studies published up to January 2012 that reported remission rates from an initial CHR status. The primary effect size measure was the longitudinal proportion of remissions compared to non-remission in subjects with a baseline CHR state. Random effect models were employed to address the high heterogeneity across studies included. To assess the robustness of the results, we performed sensitivity analyses by sequentially removing each study and rerunning the analysis. Of 773 subjects who met initial CHR criteria, 73% did not convert to psychosis along a 2-year follow. Of these, about 46% fully remitted from the baseline attenuated psychotic symptoms, as evaluated on the psychometric measures usually employed by prodromal services. The corresponding clinical remission was estimated as high as 35% of the baseline CHR sample. The CHR state is associated with a significant proportion of remitting subjects that can be accounted by the effective treatments received, a lead time bias, a dilution effect, a comorbid effect of other psychiatric diagnoses.

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AIMS: We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the accuracy of quantitative stress myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) in coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Database search was performed through January 2008. We included studies evaluating accuracy of quantitative stress MCE for detection of CAD compared with coronary angiography or single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and measuring reserve parameters of A, beta, and Abeta. Data from studies were verified and supplemented by the authors of each study. Using random effects meta-analysis, we estimated weighted mean difference (WMD), likelihood ratios (LRs), diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and summary area under curve (AUC), all with 95% confidence interval (CI). Of 1443 studies, 13 including 627 patients (age range, 38-75 years) and comparing MCE with angiography (n = 10), SPECT (n = 1), or both (n = 2) were eligible. WMD (95% CI) were significantly less in CAD group than no-CAD group: 0.12 (0.06-0.18) (P < 0.001), 1.38 (1.28-1.52) (P < 0.001), and 1.47 (1.18-1.76) (P < 0.001) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. Pooled LRs for positive test were 1.33 (1.13-1.57), 3.76 (2.43-5.80), and 3.64 (2.87-4.78) and LRs for negative test were 0.68 (0.55-0.83), 0.30 (0.24-0.38), and 0.27 (0.22-0.34) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. Pooled DORs were 2.09 (1.42-3.07), 15.11 (7.90-28.91), and 14.73 (9.61-22.57) and AUCs were 0.637 (0.594-0.677), 0.851 (0.828-0.872), and 0.859 (0.842-0.750) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. CONCLUSION: Evidence supports the use of quantitative MCE as a non-invasive test for detection of CAD. Standardizing MCE quantification analysis and adherence to reporting standards for diagnostic tests could enhance the quality of evidence in this field.

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Asthma and wheezing disorders are common chronic health problems in childhood. Breastfeeding provides health benefits, but it is not known whether or how breastfeeding decreases the risk of developing asthma. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies published between 1983 and 2012 on breastfeeding and asthma in children from the general population. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases for cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies. We grouped the outcomes into asthma ever, recent asthma, or recent wheezing illness (recent asthma or recent wheeze). Using random-effects meta-analyses, we estimated pooled odds ratios of the association of breastfeeding with the risk for each of these outcomes. We performed meta-regression and stratified meta-analyses. We included 117 of 1,464 titles identified by our search. The pooled odds ratios were 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.74, 0.84) for 75 studies analyzing "asthma ever," 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.67, 0.86) for 46 studies analyzing "recent asthma," and 0.81 (95% confidence interval: 0.76, 0.87) for 94 studies analyzing recent wheezing illness. After stratification by age, the strong protective association found at ages 0-2 years diminished over time. We found no evidence for differences by study design or study quality or between studies in Western and non-Western countries. A positive association of breastfeeding with reduced asthma/wheezing is supported by the combined evidence of existing studies.

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BACKGROUND To summarize the available evidence on the effectiveness of psychological interventions for patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). METHOD We searched bibliographic databases and reference lists of relevant systematic reviews and meta-analyses for randomized controlled trials that compared specific psychological interventions for adults with PTSD symptoms either head-to-head or against control interventions using non-specific intervention components, or against wait-list control. Two investigators independently extracted the data and assessed trial characteristics. RESULTS The analyses included 4190 patients in 66 trials. An initial network meta-analysis showed large effect sizes (ESs) for all specific psychological interventions (ESs between -1.10 and -1.37) and moderate effects of psychological interventions that were used to control for non-specific intervention effects (ESs -0.58 and -0.62). ES differences between various types of specific psychological interventions were absent to small (ES differences between 0.00 and 0.27). Considerable between-trial heterogeneity occurred (τ 2 = 0.30). Stratified analyses revealed that trials that adhered to DSM-III/IV criteria for PTSD were associated with larger ESs. However, considerable heterogeneity remained. Heterogeneity was reduced in trials with adequate concealment of allocation and in large-sized trials. We found evidence for small-study bias. CONCLUSIONS Our findings show that patients with a formal diagnosis of PTSD and those with subclinical PTSD symptoms benefit from different psychological interventions. We did not identify any intervention that was consistently superior to other specific psychological interventions. However, the robustness of evidence varies considerably between different psychological interventions for PTSD, with most robust evidence for cognitive behavioral and exposure therapies.

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Background: Accurate information about the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis is needed to assess national prevention and control measures. Methods: We systematically reviewed population-based cross-sectional studies that estimated chlamydia prevalence in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and non-European high income countries from January 1990 to August 2012. We examined results in forest plots, explored heterogeneity using the I2 statistic, and conducted random effects meta-analysis if appropriate. Metaregression was used to examine the relationship between study characteristics and chlamydia prevalence estimates. Results: We included 25 population-based studies from 11 EU/EEA countries and 14 studies from five other high income countries. Four EU/EEA Member States reported on nationally representative surveys of sexually experienced adults aged 18-26 years (response rates 52-71%). In women, chlamydia point prevalence estimates ranged from 3.0-5.3%; the pooled average of these estimates was 3.6% (95% CI 2.4, 4.8, I2 0%). In men, estimates ranged from 2.4-7.3% (pooled average 3.5%; 95% CI 1.9, 5.2, I2 27%). Estimates in EU/EEA Member States were statistically consistent with those in other high income countries (I2 0% for women, 6% for men). There was statistical evidence of an association between survey response rate and estimated chlamydia prevalence; estimates were higher in surveys with lower response rates, (p=0.003 in women, 0.018 in men). Conclusions: Population-based surveys that estimate chlamydia prevalence are at risk of participation bias owing to low response rates. Estimates obtained in nationally representative samples of the general population of EU/EEA Member States are similar to estimates from other high income countries.

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OBJECTIVES To assess the available evidence on the effectiveness of accelerated orthodontic tooth movement through surgical and non-surgical approaches in orthodontic patients. METHODS Randomized controlled trials and controlled clinical trials were identified through electronic and hand searches (last update: March 2014). Orthognathic surgery, distraction osteogenesis, and pharmacological approaches were excluded. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. RESULTS Eighteen trials involving 354 participants were included for qualitative and quantitative synthesis. Eight trials reported on low-intensity laser, one on photobiomodulation, one on pulsed electromagnetic fields, seven on corticotomy, and one on interseptal bone reduction. Two studies on corticotomy and two on low-intensity laser, which had low or unclear risk of bias, were mathematically combined using the random effects model. Higher canine retraction rate was evident with corticotomy during the first month of therapy (WMD=0.73; 95% CI: 0.28, 1.19, p<0.01) and with low-intensity laser (WMD=0.42mm/month; 95% CI: 0.26, 0.57, p<0.001) in a period longer than 3 months. The quality of evidence supporting the interventions is moderate for laser therapy and low for corticotomy intervention. CONCLUSIONS There is some evidence that low laser therapy and corticotomy are effective, whereas the evidence is weak for interseptal bone reduction and very weak for photobiomodulation and pulsed electromagnetic fields. Overall, the results should be interpreted with caution given the small number, quality, and heterogeneity of the included studies. Further research is required in this field with additional attention to application protocols, adverse effects, and cost-benefit analysis. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE From the qualitative and quantitative synthesis of the studies, it could be concluded that there is some evidence that low laser therapy and corticotomy are associated with accelerated orthodontic tooth movement, while further investigation is required before routine application.

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BACKGROUND Observational studies of a putative association between hormonal contraception (HC) and HIV acquisition have produced conflicting results. We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of studies from sub-Saharan Africa to compare the incidence of HIV infection in women using combined oral contraceptives (COCs) or the injectable progestins depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) or norethisterone enanthate (NET-EN) with women not using HC. METHODS AND FINDINGS Eligible studies measured HC exposure and incident HIV infection prospectively using standardized measures, enrolled women aged 15-49 y, recorded ≥15 incident HIV infections, and measured prespecified covariates. Our primary analysis estimated the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) using two-stage random effects meta-analysis, controlling for region, marital status, age, number of sex partners, and condom use. We included 18 studies, including 37,124 women (43,613 woman-years) and 1,830 incident HIV infections. Relative to no HC use, the aHR for HIV acquisition was 1.50 (95% CI 1.24-1.83) for DMPA use, 1.24 (95% CI 0.84-1.82) for NET-EN use, and 1.03 (95% CI 0.88-1.20) for COC use. Between-study heterogeneity was mild (I2 < 50%). DMPA use was associated with increased HIV acquisition compared with COC use (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.23-1.67) and NET-EN use (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08-1.61). Effect estimates were attenuated for studies at lower risk of methodological bias (compared with no HC use, aHR for DMPA use 1.22, 95% CI 0.99-1.50; for NET-EN use 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.96; and for COC use 0.91, 95% CI 0.73-1.41) compared to those at higher risk of bias (pinteraction = 0.003). Neither age nor herpes simplex virus type 2 infection status modified the HC-HIV relationship. CONCLUSIONS This IPD meta-analysis found no evidence that COC or NET-EN use increases women's risk of HIV but adds to the evidence that DMPA may increase HIV risk, underscoring the need for additional safe and effective contraceptive options for women at high HIV risk. A randomized controlled trial would provide more definitive evidence about the effects of hormonal contraception, particularly DMPA, on HIV risk.

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Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been associated with coronary heart disease, but the risk of stroke is unclear. Our aim is to combine the evidence on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke in prospective cohort studies. We searched Medline (OvidSP), Embase, Web-of-Science, Pubmed Publisher, Cochrane and Google Scholar from inception to November 2013 using a cohort filter, but without language restriction or other limitations. Reference lists of articles were searched. Two independent reviewers screened articles according to pre-specified criteria and selected prospective cohort studies with baseline thyroid function measurements and assessment of stroke outcomes. Data were derived using a standardized data extraction form. Quality was assessed according to previously defined quality indicators by two independent reviewers. We pooled the outcomes using a random-effects model. Of 2,274 articles screened, six cohort studies, including 11,309 participants with 665 stroke events, met the criteria. Four of six studies provided information on subclinical hyperthyroidism including a total of 6,029 participants and five on subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 10,118). The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 1.08 (95 % CI 0.87-1.34) for subclinical hypothyroidism (I (2) of 0 %) and 1.17 (95 % CI 0.54-2.56) for subclinical hyperthyroidism (I (2) of 67 %) compared to euthyroidism. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. Our systematic review provides no evidence supporting an increased risk for stroke associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. However, the available literature is insufficient and larger datasets are needed to perform extended analyses. Also, there were insufficient events to exclude clinically significant risk from subclinical hyperthyroidism, and more data are required for subgroup analyses.

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HIV-infection is an important risk factor for developing Kaposi sarcoma (KS), but it is unclear whether HIV-positive persons are also at increased risk of co-infection with human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8), the infectious cause of KS. We systematically searched literature up to December 2012 and included studies reporting HHV-8 seroprevalence for HIV-positive and HIV-negative persons. We used random-effects meta-analysis to combine odds ratios (ORs) of the association between HIV and HHV-8 seropositivity and conducted random-effects meta-regression to identify sources of heterogeneity. We included 93 studies with 58,357 participants from 32 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, North and South America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. Overall, HIV-positive persons were more likely to be HHV-8 seropositive than HIV-negative persons (OR 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.70-2.34) with considerable heterogeneity among studies (I(2) 84%). The association was strongest in men who have sex with men (MSM, OR 3.95, 95% CI 2.92-5.35), patients with hemophilia (OR 3.11, 95% CI 1.19-8.11), and children (OR 2.45, 95% CI 1.58-3.81), but weaker in heterosexuals who engage in low-risk (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.16-1.74) or high-risk sexual behavior (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.27-2.17), persons who inject drugs (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.28-2.14), and pregnant women (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.15-2.47), p value for interaction <0.001. In conclusion, HIV-infection was associated with an increased HHV-8 seroprevalence in all population groups examined. A better understanding of HHV-8 transmission in different age and behavioral groups is needed to develop strategies to prevent HHV-8 transmission.