3 resultados para Bayesian approach

em Academic Research Repository at Institute of Developing Economies


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The presence of a large informal sector in developing economies poses the question of whether informal activity produces agglomeration externalities. This paper uses data on all the nonfarm establishments and enterprises in Cambodia to estimate the impact of informal agglomeration on the regional economic performance of formal and informal firms. We develop a Bayesian approach for a spatial autoregressive model with an endogenous explanatory variable to address endogeneity and spatial dependence. We find a significantly positive effect of informal agglomeration, where informal firms gain more strongly than formal firms. Calculating the spatial marginal effects of increased agglomeration, we demonstrate that more accessible regions are more likely than less accessible regions to benefit strongly from informal agglomeration.

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This paper estimates the elasticity of labor productivity with respect to employment density, a widely used measure of the agglomeration effect, in the Yangtze River Delta, China. A spatial Durbin model is presented that makes explicit the influences of spatial dependence and endogeneity bias in a very simple way. Results of Bayesian estimation using the data of the year 2009 indicate that the productivity is influenced by factors correlated with density rather than density itself and that spatial spillovers of these factors of agglomeration play a significant role. They are consistent with the findings of Ke (2010) and Artis, et al. (2011) that suggest the importance of taking into account spatial dependence and hitherto omitted variables.

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This paper estimates the impact of industrial agglomeration on firm-level productivity in Chinese manufacturing sectors. To account for spatial autocorrelation across regions, we formulate a hierarchical spatial model at the firm level and develop a Bayesian estimation algorithm. A Bayesian instrumental-variables approach is used to address endogeneity bias of agglomeration. Robust to these potential biases, we find that agglomeration of the same industry (i.e. localization) has a productivity-boosting effect, but agglomeration of urban population (i.e. urbanization) has no such effects. Additionally, the localization effects increase with educational levels of employees and the share of intermediate inputs in gross output. These results may suggest that agglomeration externalities occur through knowledge spillovers and input sharing among firms producing similar manufactures.