Plant distribution and climate data across western North America

Using an extensive network of occurrence records for 293 plant species collected over the past 40 years across a climatically diverse geographic section of western North America, we find that plant species distributions were just as likely to shift upwards (i.e., towards higher elevations) as downward (i.e., towards lower elevations) - despite consistent warming across the study area. Although there was no clear directional response to climate warming across the entire study area, there was significant region-to region- variation in responses (i.e. from as many as 73% to as few as32% of species shifting upward or downward). To understand the factors that might be controlling region-specific distributional shifts, we explored the relationship between the direction of change in distribution limits and the nature of recent climate change. We found that the direction of distribution limit shifts was explained by an interaction between the rate of change in local summer temperatures and seasonal precipitation. Specifically, species shifted upward at their upper elevational limit when snowfall declined at slower rates and minimum temperatures increased. By contrast, species shifted upwards at their lower elevation limit when maximum temperatures increased or both temperature and precipitation decreased. Our results suggest that future species' elevational distribution shifts will be complex, depending on the interaction between seasonal temperature and precipitation change.

Paleoclimatate of the Middle Burdigalian-Langhian period in Turkey

The Miocene is the last warm episode in Earth history, and this episode was well recorded in Turkey as shown by plant distribution and inferred numerical temperature values. In this study, Ören-Kultak, Hüssamlar and Karacaagac palynofloras from western Turkey, which are characterized by the thermophilous plants (Engelhardia, Sapotaceae, Cyrillaceae, Avicennia, Arecaceae, Palmae), are described. Age determinations of these palynofloras (middle Burdigalian-Langhian) are strengthened by the mammalian fossil record (MN4-5) and strontium isotope results. Palaeoclimate is humid and warm subtropical during the middle Burdigalian-Langhian time interval in Europe and Turkey. However, temperature difference has been observed between Europe and Turkey during this time interval and it could be explained by the palaeogeographic position of countries. Despite some discrepancies in the climatic values and palaeovegetation groups, warm climatic conditions are recorded, based on the palynofloras, in Turkey (Cayyrhan, Havza, Can, Etili, Gönen, Bigadic, Emet, Kirka and Kestelek, Sabuncubeli, Soma, Tire, Kulogullary, Bascayyr, Hüssamlar and Karacaagac), Greece and elsewhere in Europe throughout the middle Burdigalian-Langhian period. This warming is related to the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum period. Carbon and oxygen isotope values obtained from tooth enamel of Gomphotherium sp. from Kultak and Hüssamlar indicate similar ecological condition during the Burdigalian-Langhian time. This isotopic result and high MAPDRY value from the Kultak locality are in agreement with ecological interpretation of mammalian fossils. Besides, according to the precipitation values, central and northwestern Anatolian sites provide more rainfall during the Burdigalian-Langhian time interval than the western Anatolian sites.

Snow depths of volcanic events and accumulation rates of firn cores from the IPY traverse, Antarctica

Volcanic signatures in ice-core records provide an excellent means to date the cores and obtain information about accumulation rates. From several ice cores it is thus possible to extract a spatio-temporal accumulation pattern. We show records of electrical conductivity and sulfur from 13 firn cores from the Norwegian-USA scientific traverse during the International Polar Year 2007-2009 (IPY) through East Antarctica. Major volcanic eruptions are identified and used to assess century-scale accumulation changes. The largest changes seem to occur in the most recent decades with accumulation over the period 1963-2007/08 being up to 25% different from the long-term record. There is no clear overall trend, some sites show an increase in accumulation over the period 1963 to present while others show a decrease. Almost all of the sites above 3200 m above sea level (asl) suggest a decrease. These sites also show a significantly lower accumulation value than large-scale assessments both for the period 1963 to present and for the long-term mean at the respective drill sites. The spatial accumulation distribution is influenced mainly by elevation and distance to the ocean (continentality), as expected. Ground-penetrating radar data around the drill sites show a spatial variability within 10-20% over several tens of kilometers, indicating that our drill sites are well representative for the area around them. Our results are important for large-scale assessments of Antarctic mass balance and model validation.

Diatom abundance in surface sediments of the Southern Ocean

Based on the quantitative analysis of diatom assemblages preserved in 274 surface sediment samples recovered in the Pacific, Atlantic and western Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean we have defined a new reference database for quantitative estimation of late-middle Pleistocene Antarctic sea ice fields using the transfer function technique. The Detrended Canonical Analysis (DCA) of the diatom data set points to a unimodal distribution of the diatom assemblages. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicates that winter sea ice (WSI) but also summer sea surface temperature (SSST) represent the most prominent environmental variables that control the spatial species distribution. To test the applicability of transfer functions for sea ice reconstruction in terms of concentration and occurrence probability we applied four different methods, the Imbrie and Kipp Method (IKM), the Modern Analog Technique (MAT), Weighted Averaging (WA), and Weighted Averaging Partial Least Squares (WAPLS), using logarithm-transformed diatom data and satellite-derived (1981-2010) sea ice data as a reference. The best performance for IKM results was obtained using a subset of 172 samples with 28 diatom taxa/taxa groups, quadratic regression and a three-factor model (IKM-D172/28/3q) resulting in root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) of 7.27% and 11.4% for WSI and summer sea ice (SSI) concentration, respectively. MAT estimates were calculated with different numbers of analogs (4, 6) using a 274-sample/28-taxa reference data set (MAT-D274/28/4an, -6an) resulting in RMSEP's ranging from 5.52% (4an) to 5.91% (6an) for WSI as well as 8.93% (4an) to 9.05% (6an) for SSI. WA and WAPLS performed less well with the D274 data set, compared to MAT, achieving WSI concentration RMSEP's of 9.91% with WA and 11.29% with WAPLS, recommending the use of IKM and MAT. The application of IKM and MAT to surface sediment data revealed strong relations to the satellite-derived winter and summer sea ice field. Sea ice reconstructions performed on an Atlantic- and a Pacific Southern Ocean sediment core, both documenting sea ice variability over the past 150,000 years (MIS 1 - MIS 6), resulted in similar glacial/interglacial trends of IKM and MAT-based sea-ice estimates. On the average, however, IKM estimates display smaller WSI and slightly higher SSI concentration and probability at lower variability in comparison with MAT. This pattern is a result of different estimation techniques with integration of WSI and SSI signals in one single factor assemblage by applying IKM and selecting specific single samples, thus keeping close to the original diatom database and included variability, by MAT. In contrast to the estimation of WSI, reconstructions of past SSI variability remains weaker. Combined with diatom-based estimates, the abundance and flux pattern of biogenic opal represents an additional indication for the WSI and SSI extent.

An individual based model spatial distribution, production and biomass for Calanus finmarchicus in the Norwegian Sea

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the meso-zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea, and constitutes an important link between the phytoplankton and the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea food chain. An individualbased model for C. finmarchicus, based on super-individuals and evolving traits for behaviour, stages, etc., is two-way coupled to the NORWegian ECOlogical Model system (NORWECOM). One year of modelled C. finmarchicus spatial distribution, production and biomass are found to represent observations reasonably well. High C. finmarchicus abundance is found along the Norwegian shelf-break in the early summer, while the overwintering population is found along the slope and in the deeper Norwegian Sea basins. The timing of the spring bloom is generally later than in the observations. Annual Norwegian Sea production is found to be 29 million tonnes of carbon and a production to biomass (P/B) ratio of 4.3 emerges. Sensitivity tests show that the modelling system is robust to initial values of behavioural traits and with regards to the number of super-individuals simulated given that this is above about 50,000 individuals. Experiments with the model system indicate that it provides a valuable tool for studies of ecosystem responses to causative forces such as prey density or overwintering population size. For example, introducing C. finmarchicus food limitations reduces the stock dramatically, but on the other hand, a reduced stock may rebuild in one year under normal conditions. The NetCDF file contains model grid coordinates and bottom topography.

Isotopic composition of terrestrial plant waxes (dD and d13C of n-alkanes) of sediment core SO188_342 from the Northern Bay of Bengal for the last 18 ka

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a major global climatic phenomenon. Long-term precipitation proxy records of the ISM, however, are often fragmented and discontinuous, impeding an estimation of the magnitude of precipitation variability from the Last Glacial to the present. To improve our understanding of past ISM variability, we provide a continuous reconstructed record of precipitation and continental vegetation changes from the lower Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna catchment and the Indo-Burman ranges over the last 18,000 years (18 ka). The records derive from a marine sediment core from the northern Bay of Bengal (NBoB), and are complemented by numerical model results of spatial moisture transport and precipitation distribution over the Bengal region. The isotopic composition of terrestrial plant waxes (dD and d13C of n-alkanes) are compared to results from an isotope-enabled general atmospheric circulation model (IsoCAM) for selected time slices (pre-industrial, mid-Holocene and Heinrich Stadial 1). Comparison of proxy and model results indicate that past changes in the dD of precipitation and plant waxes were mainly driven by the amount effect, and strongly influenced by ISM rainfall. Maximum precipitation is detected for the Early Holocene Climatic Optimum (EHCO; 10.5-6 ka BP), whereas minimum precipitation occurred during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; 16.9-15.4 ka BP). The IsoCAM model results support the hypothesis of a constant moisture source (i.e. the NBoB) throughout the study period. Relative to the pre-industrial period the model reconstructions show 20% more rain during the mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) and 20% less rain during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), respectively. A shift from C4-plant dominated ecosystems during the glacial to subsequent C3/C4-mixed ones during the interglacial took place. Vegetation changes were predominantly driven by precipitation variability, as evidenced by the significant correlation between the dD and d13C alkane records. When compared to other records across the ISM domain, precipitation and vegetation changes inferred from our records and the numerical model results provide evidence for a coherent regional variability of the ISM from the Last Glacial to the present.

Distribution models for mountain plant species: The value of elevation

The climatic conditions of mountain habitats are greatly influenced by topography. Large differences in microclimate occur with small changes in elevation, and this complex interaction is an important determinant of mountain plant distributions. In spite of this, elevation is not often considered as a relevant predictor in species distribution models (SDMs) for mountain plants. Here, we evaluated the importance of including elevation as a predictor in SDMs for mountain plant species. We generated two sets of SDMs for each of 73 plant species that occur in the Pacific Northwest of North America; one set of models included elevation as a predictor variable and the other set did not. AUC scores indicated that omitting elevation as a predictor resulted in a negligible reduction of model performance. However, further analysis revealed that the omission of elevation resulted in large over-predictions of species' niche breadths-this effect was most pronounced for species that occupy the highest elevations. In addition, the inclusion of elevation as a predictor constrained the effects of other predictors that superficially affected the outcome of the models generated without elevation. Our results demonstrate that the inclusion of elevation as a predictor variable improves the quality of SDMs for high-elevation plant species. Because of the negligible AUC score penalty for over-predicting niche breadth, our results support the notion that AUC scores alone should not be used as a measure of model quality. More generally, our results illustrate the importance of selecting biologically relevant predictor variables when constructing SDMs.

Spatial database of canopy plant densities created from satellite images over Galapagos in 2011, with intent to manage invasive species

Mapping is an important tool for the management of plant invasions. If landscapes are mapped in an appropriate way, results can help managers decide when and where to prioritize their efforts. We mapped vegetation with the aim of providing key information for managers on the extent, density and rates of spread of multiple invasive species across the landscape. Our case study focused on an area of Galapagos National Park that is faced with the challenge of managing multiple plant invasions. We used satellite imagery to produce a spatially-explicit database of plant species densities in the canopy, finding that 92% of the humid highlands had some degree of invasion and 41% of the canopy was comprised of invasive plants. We also calculated the rate of spread of eight invasive species using known introduction dates, finding that species with the most limited dispersal ability had the slowest spread rates while those able to disperse long distances had a range of spread rates. Our results on spread rate fall at the lower end of the range of published spread rates of invasive plants. This is probably because most studies are based on the entire geographic extent, whereas our estimates took plant density into account. A spatial database of plant species densities, such as the one developed in our case study, can be used by managers to decide where to apply management actions and thereby help curtail the spread of current plant invasions. For example, it can be used to identify sites containing several invasive plant species, to find the density of a particular species across the landscape or to locate where native species make up the majority of the canopy. Similar databases could be developed elsewhere to help inform the management of multiple plant invasions over the landscape.

Distribution and stable isotopic compositions of hydrogen and carbon of plant-wax derived n-C29 and -C31 alkanes in terrestrial, coastal and offshore surface sediments

Reconstructing terrestrial water budgets is of prime importance for understanding past climate and environment. To shed more light on how plant-wax derived n-alkanes may be used for this purpose we investigated the distribution and stable isotopic compositions of hydrogen (dD) and carbon (d13C) of plant-wax derived n-C29 and -C31 alkanes in terrestrial, coastal and offshore surface sediments in relation to hydrology along a NW-SE transect east of the Italian Apennines from the Po River to the Eastern Gulf of Taranto. The plant wax average chain length increases southward and may relate to increasing temperature and/or aridity. The plant wax dD of the terrestrial and coastal samples also increases southward and mainly reflects changes in the dD of precipitation. The d13C of plant waxes is primarily interpreted in terms of C3 vegetation changes rather than varying contributions by C4 plants. The plant wax d13C-dD composition of the Po River and Apennine rivers differs considerably from that in southern Italy, and suggests a mainly southern source for plant waxes in marine sediments of the Gulf of Taranto. This calibration provides a basis for the reconstruction of past changes in the Italian water balance and n-alkane source areas.

Spatial and seasonal distribution of Thaumarchaeota in the water column and sediment of the southern North Sea

We have examined the spatial and seasonal distribution of Thaumarchaeota in the water column and sediment of the southern North Sea using the specific intact polar lipid (IPL) hexose, phosphohexose (HPH) crenarchaeol, as well as thaumarchaeotal 16S rRNA gene abundances and expression. In the water column, a higher abundance of Thaumarchaeota was observed in the winter season than in the summer, which is in agreement with previous studies, but this was not the case in the sediment where Thaumarchaeota were most abundant in spring and summer. This observation corresponds well with the idea that ammonia availability is a key factor in thaumarchaeotal niche determination. In the surface waters of the southern North Sea, we observed a spatial variability in HPH crenarchaeol, thaumarchaeotal 16S rRNA gene abundance and transcriptional activity that corresponded well with the different water masses present. In bottom waters, a clear differentiation based on water masses was not observed; instead, we suggest that observed differences in thaumarchaeotal abundance with depth may be related to resuspension from the sediment. This could be due to suspension of benthic Thaumarchaeota to the water column or due to delivery of e.g. resuspended sediment or ammonium to the water column, which could be utilized by pelagic Thaumarchaeota. This study has shown that the seasonality of Thaumarchaeota in water and sediment is different and highlights the importance of water masses, currents and sedimentary processes in determining the spatial abundance of Thaumarchaeota in the southern North Sea.

Spatial distribution of isotopic compositions of Globigerina bulloides and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dex.) and the faunal assemblages of planktic foraminifera in surface sediment samples along the Chilean continental slope between 23°S and 44°S

We report on the spatial distribution of isotopic compositions of the two planktic foraminifera species Globigerina bulloides and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dex.), and the faunal assemblages of planktic foraminifera in 91 surface sediment samples along the Chilean continental slope between 23°S and 44°S. Both d13C and d18O data of N. pachyderma (dex.) show little variability in the study area. North of 39°S, the isotopic values of N. pachyderma (dex.) are heavier than those of G. bulloides, whereas south of 39°S, this relation inverses. This is indicative for a change from a well-mixed, deep thermocline caused by coastal upwelling north of 39°S to well-stratified water masses in a non-upwelling environment south of 39°S. In addition, the faunal composition of planktic foraminifera marks this change by transition from an upwelling assemblage north of 39°S to a high-nutrient-non-upwelling assemblage south of 39°S, which is characterized by decreased contributions of upwelling indicators such as G. bulloides, N. pachyderma (sin.), and Globigerinita glutinata. In general, we can conclude that food and light rather than temperature are the primary control of the planktic foraminiferal assemblage between 23°S and 44°S off Chile. Our data point to higher marine productivity at upwelling centers north of 25°S and at 30-33°S. South of 39°S, significant supply of nutrients by fluvial input most likely boosts the productivity.

Appendix 7: List of species with their distribution ranges restricted to the corresponding phytogeographical region

Understanding species distribution patterns and the corresponding environmental determinants is a crucial step in the development of effective strategies for the conservation and management of plant communities and ecosystems. Therefore, a central prerequisite is the biogeographical and macroecological analysis of factors and processes that determine contemporary, potential, as well as future geographic distribution of species. This thesis has been conducted in the framework of the BIOMAPS-BIOTA project at the Nees Institute of Biodiversity of Plants, which was funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The study investigated patterns of plants species richness and phytogeographic regions under contemporary environmental conditions and forecasted future climate change in the area of West Africa covering five countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. Firstly, geographic patterns of vascular plant species richness have been depicted at a relatively fine spatial resolution based on the potential distribution of 3,393 species. Species richness is closely related to the steep climatic gradient existing in the region with a high concentration of species in the most humid areas in the south and decreases towards the northern drier areas. The investigation of the effectiveness of the existing network of protected areas shows an overall good coverage of species in the study area. However, the proportion of covered species is considerably lower at national extent for some countries, thus calling for more protected areas in order to cover adequately a maximum number of plants species in these countries. Secondly, based on the potential distribution range of vascular plant species, seven phytogeographic regions have been delineated that broadly reflect the vegetation zones as defined by White (1983). However notable differences to the delineation of White (1983) occur at the margins of some regions. Corresponding to a general southward shifted of all regions. And expansion of the Sahel vegetation zone is observed in the north, while the rainforest zone is decreased in the very south.This is alarming since the rainforest shelters a high number of species and a high proportion of range-restricted or endemic species, despite their relatively small extent compared to the other regions. Finally, the evaluation of the potential impact of climate change on plant species richness in the study area, results in a severe loss of future suitable habitat for up to 50% of species per grid cell, particularly in the rainforest region. Moreover, the analysis of the possible shift of phytogeographic regions shows in general a strong deterioration of the West African rainforest. In contrast the drier areas are expanding continuously, although a slight gain in species number can be observed in some particular regions. The overall lesson to retain from the results of this study is that the West African rainforest should be fixed as a high priority area for the conservation of biodiversity of plants, since it is subject to severe contemporary and projected future threats.