Statistical characterization and development of summary measures of non-normal distributions of nuclear morphometry data from prostate cancer cells for use as prognostic indicators

Nuclear morphometry (NM) uses image analysis to measure features of the cell nucleus which are classified as: bulk properties, shape or form, and DNA distribution. Studies have used these measurements as diagnostic and prognostic indicators of disease with inconclusive results. The distributional properties of these variables have not been systematically investigated although much of the medical data exhibit nonnormal distributions. Measurements are done on several hundred cells per patient so summary measurements reflecting the underlying distribution are needed.^ Distributional characteristics of 34 NM variables from prostate cancer cells were investigated using graphical and analytical techniques. Cells per sample ranged from 52 to 458. A small sample of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), representing non-cancer cells, was used for general comparison with the cancer cells.^ Data transformations such as log, square root and 1/x did not yield normality as measured by the Shapiro-Wilks test for normality. A modulus transformation, used for distributions having abnormal kurtosis values, also did not produce normality.^ Kernel density histograms of the 34 variables exhibited non-normality and 18 variables also exhibited bimodality. A bimodality coefficient was calculated and 3 variables: DNA concentration, shape and elongation, showed the strongest evidence of bimodality and were studied further.^ Two analytical approaches were used to obtain a summary measure for each variable for each patient: cluster analysis to determine significant clusters and a mixture model analysis using a two component model having a Gaussian distribution with equal variances. The mixture component parameters were used to bootstrap the log likelihood ratio to determine the significant number of components, 1 or 2. These summary measures were used as predictors of disease severity in several proportional odds logistic regression models. The disease severity scale had 5 levels and was constructed of 3 components: extracapsulary penetration (ECP), lymph node involvement (LN+) and seminal vesicle involvement (SV+) which represent surrogate measures of prognosis. The summary measures were not strong predictors of disease severity. There was some indication from the mixture model results that there were changes in mean levels and proportions of the components in the lower severity levels. ^

Simulation study of joint transition and Weibull survival model with shared parameters

This study investigates a theoretical model where a longitudinal process, that is a stationary Markov-Chain, and a Weibull survival process share a bivariate random effect. Furthermore, a Quality-of-Life adjusted survival is calculated as the weighted sum of survival time. Theoretical values of population mean adjusted survival of the described model are computed numerically. The parameters of the bivariate random effect do significantly affect theoretical values of population mean. Maximum-Likelihood and Bayesian methods are applied on simulated data to estimate the model parameters. Based on the parameter estimates, predicated population mean adjusted survival can then be calculated numerically and compared with the theoretical values. Bayesian method and Maximum-Likelihood method provide parameter estimations and population mean prediction with comparable accuracy; however Bayesian method suffers from poor convergence due to autocorrelation and inter-variable correlation. ^

A convolution model for energy transport in a therapeutic fast neutron beam

A three-dimensional model has been proposed that uses Monte Carlo and fast Fourier transform convolution techniques to calculate the dose distribution from a fast neutron beam. This method transports scattered neutrons and photons in the forward, lateral, and backward directions and protons, electrons, and positrons in the forward and lateral directions by convolving energy spread kernels with initial interaction available energy distributions. The primary neutron and photon spectrums have been derived from narrow beam attenuation measurements. The positions and strengths of the effective primary neutron, scattered neutron, and photon sources have been derived from dual ion chamber measurements. The size of the effective primary neutron source has been measured using a copper activation technique. Heterogeneous tissue calculations require a weighted sum of two convolutions for each component since the kernels must be invariant for FFT convolution. Comparisons between calculations and measurements were performed for several water and heterogeneous phantom geometries. ^

Involvement of heparin-like glycosaminoglycans and expression of a novel heparan sulfate binding protein (p24) during human placentation and in a model for human implantation

Previous studies in our laboratory have indicated that heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) play an important role in murine embryo implantation. To investigate the potential function of HSPGs in human implantation, two human cell lines (RL95 and JAR) were selected to model uterine epithelium and embryonal trophectoderm, respectively. A heterologous cell-cell adhesion assay showed that initial binding between JAR and RL95 cells is mediated by cell surface glycosaminoglycans (GAG) with heparin-like properties, i.e., heparan sulfate and dermatan sulfate. Furthermore, a single class of highly specific, protease-sensitive heparin/heparan sulfate binding sites exist on the surface of RL95 cells. Three heparin binding, tryptic peptide fragments were isolated from RL95 cell surfaces and their amino termini partially sequenced. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) generated 1 to 4 PCR products per tryptic peptide. Northern blot analysis of RNA from RL95 cells using one of these RT-PCR products identified a 1.2 Kb mRNA species (p24). The amino acid sequence predicted from the cDNA sequence contains a putative heparin-binding domain. A synthetic peptide representing this putative heparin binding domain was used to generate a rabbit polyclonal antibody (anti-p24). Indirect immunofluorescence studies on RL95 and JAR cells as well as binding studies of anti-p24 to intact RL95 cells demonstrate that p24 is distributed on the cell surface. Western blots of RL95 membrane preparations identify a 24 kDa protein (p24) highly enriched in the 100,000 g pellet plasma membrane-enriched fraction. p24 eluted from membranes with 0.8 M NaCl, but not 0.6 M NaCl, suggesting that it is a peripheral membrane component. Solubilized p24 binds heparin by heparin affinity chromatography and $\sp{125}$I-heparin binding assays. Furthermore, indirect immunofluorescence studies indicate that cytotrophoblast of floating and attached villi of the human fetal-maternal interface are recognized by anti-p24. The study also indicates that the HSPG, perlecan, accumulates where chorionic villi are attached to uterine stroma and where p24-expressing cytotrophoblast penetrate the stroma. Collectively, these data indicate that p24 is a cell surface membrane-associated heparin/heparan sulfate binding protein found in cytotrophoblast, but not many other cell types of the fetal-maternal interface. Furthermore, p24 colocalizes with HSPGs in regions of cytotrophoblast invasion. These observations are consistent with a role for HSPGs and HSPG binding proteins in human trophoblast-uterine cell interactions. ^

Caenorhabditis elegans germinal center kinase (Gck-1) is a p-body component that inhibits precocious ectopic MAP kinase dependent meiotic maturation

The Caenorhabditis elegans germline is an excellent model system for studying meiosis, as the gonad contains germ cells in all stages of meiosis I prophase in a linear temporal and spatial pattern. To form healthy gametes, many events must be coordinated. Failure of any step in the process can reduce fertility. Here, we describe a C. elegans Germinal Center Kinase, GCK-1, that is essential for the accurate progression of germ cells through meiosis I prophase. In the absence of GCK-1, germ cells undergo precocious maturation due to the activation of a specific MAP kinase isoform. Furthermore, GCK-1 localizes to P-bodies, RNP particles that have been implicated in RNA degradation and translational control. Like two other components of C. elegans germline P-bodies, GCK-1 functions to limit physiological germ cell apoptosis. This is the first study to identify a role for a GCK-III kinase in metazoan germ cell development and to link P-body function with MAP kinase activation and germ cell maturation. ^

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

Homeless access to dental health care: Creation of a dental service model

This project involved developing a model for planning a dental emergency treatment center that could function as an embedded component of a shelter for the homeless population. The dental services provided by such a clinic should include treatment for tooth pain, dental caries or cavities, chipped or broken teeth, broken partials, abscessed teeth, emergency cleanings, periodontal disease or gum disease and fillings. These are the dental services that are most often sought by homeless people in hospital emergency rooms.^ The underlying assumption for this project was that the oral health needs of the homeless community can most effectively be addressed by implementing small dental clinics in existing facilities that provide shelter and other services for this population. The model described in this project identifies oral health care services that would be provided by the clinic, facility (physical plant) requirements and associated infrastructure to operate an embedded dental clinic, methods for obtaining funding, strategies of recruiting dental professionals to staff the facility, and methods to assess the outcomes of the embedded clinic strategy. As an example, this project describes a strategy for developing such an embedded clinic at San Antonio Metropolitan Ministries SAMM shelter based on recommendations from community health care leaders, managers of homeless shelters, members of the homeless community and dental professionals^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

The application of principal component analysis on human development indicators: Temporal approach from 1999 to 2010

Background and Objective. Ever since the human development index was published in 1990 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), many researchers started searching and corporative studying for more effective methods to measure the human development. Published in 1999, Lai’s “Temporal analysis of human development indicators: principal component approach” provided a valuable statistical way on human developmental analysis. This study presented in the thesis is the extension of Lai’s 1999 research. ^ Methods. I used the weighted principal component method on the human development indicators to measure and analyze the progress of human development in about 180 countries around the world from the year 1999 to 2010. The association of the main principal component obtained from the study and the human development index reported by the UNDP was estimated by the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. The main principal component was then further applied to quantify the temporal changes of the human development of selected countries by the proposed Z-test. ^ Results. The weighted means of all three human development indicators, health, knowledge, and standard of living, were increased from 1999 to 2010. The weighted standard deviation for GDP per capita was also increased across years indicated the rising inequality of standard of living among countries. The ranking of low development countries by the main principal component (MPC) is very similar to that by the human development index (HDI). Considerable discrepancy between MPC and HDI ranking was found among high development countries with high GDP per capita shifted to higher ranks. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between the main principal component and the human development index were all around 0.99. All the above results were very close to outcomes in Lai’s 1999 report. The Z test result on temporal analysis of main principal components from 1999 to 2010 on Qatar was statistically significant, but not on other selected countries, such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and U.S.A.^ Conclusion. To synthesize the multi-dimensional measurement of human development into a single index, the weighted principal component method provides a good model by using the statistical tool on a comprehensive ranking and measurement. Since the weighted main principle component index is more objective because of using population of nations as weight, more effective when the analysis is across time and space, and more flexible when the countries reported to the system has been changed year after year. Thus, in conclusion, the index generated by using weighted main principle component has some advantage over the human development index created in UNDP reports.^

Understanding and Characterizing Shared Decision-Making and Behavioral Intent in Medical Uncertainty

Applying Theoretical Constructs to Address Medical Uncertainty Situations involving medical reasoning usually include some level of medical uncertainty. Despite the identification of shared decision-making (SDM) as an effective technique, it has been observed that the likelihood of physicians and patients engaging in shared decision making is lower in those situations where it is most needed; specifically in circumstances of medical uncertainty. Having identified shared decision making as an effective, yet often a neglected approach to resolving a lack of information exchange in situations involving medical uncertainty, the next step is to determine the way(s) in which SDM can be integrated and the supplemental processes that may facilitate its integration. SDM involves unique types of communication and relationships between patients and physicians. Therefore, it is necessary to further understand and incorporate human behavioral elements - in particular, behavioral intent - in order to successfully identify and realize the potential benefits of SDM. This paper discusses the background and potential interaction between the theories of shared decision-making, medical uncertainty, and behavioral intent. Identifying Shared Decision-Making Elements in Medical Encounters Dealing with Uncertainty A recent summary of the state of medical knowledge in the U.S. reported that nearly half (47%) of all treatments were of unknown effectiveness, and an additional 7% involved an uncertain tradeoff between benefits and harms. Shared decision-making (SDM) was identified as an effective technique for managing uncertainty when two or more parties were involved. In order to understand which of the elements of SDM are used most frequently and effectively, it is necessary to identify these key elements, and understand how these elements related to each other and the SDM process. The elements identified through the course of the present research were selected from basic principles of the SDM model and the “Data, Information, Knowledge, Wisdom” (DIKW) Hierarchy. The goal of this ethnographic research was to identify which common elements of shared decision-making patients are most often observed applying in the medical encounter. The results of the present study facilitated the understanding of which elements patients were more likely to exhibit during a primary care medical encounter, as well as determining variables of interest leading to more successful shared decision-making practices between patients and their physicians. Understanding Behavioral Intent to Participate in Shared Decision-Making in Medically Uncertain Situations Objective: This article describes the process undertaken to identify and validate behavioral and normative beliefs and behavioral intent of men between the ages of 45-70 with regard to participating in shared decision-making in medically uncertain situations. This article also discusses the preliminary results of the aforementioned processes and explores potential future uses of this information which may facilitate greater understanding, efficiency and effectiveness of doctor-patient consultations.Design: Qualitative Study using deductive content analysisSetting: Individual semi-structure patient interviews were conducted until data saturation was reached. Researchers read the transcripts and developed a list of codes.Subjects: 25 subjects drawn from the Philadelphia community.Measurements: Qualitative indicators were developed to measure respondents’ experiences and beliefs related to behavioral intent to participate in shared decision-making during medical uncertainty. Subjects were also asked to complete the Krantz Health Opinion Survey as a method of triangulation.Results: Several factors were repeatedly described by respondents as being essential to participate in shared decision-making in medical uncertainty. These factors included past experience with medical uncertainty, an individual’s personality, and the relationship between the patient and his physician.Conclusions: The findings of this study led to the development of a category framework that helped understand an individual’s needs and motivational factors in their intent to participate in shared decision-making. The three main categories include 1) an individual’s representation of medically uncertainty, 2) how the individual copes with medical uncertainty, and 3) the individual’s behavioral intent to seek information and participate in shared decision-making during times of medically uncertain situations.

Regulation of apoptosis during the pathogenesis of non -melanoma skin cancer

Previous studies from our lab have shown distinctive patterns of expression of bcl-2 gene family members in human nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC). To further evaluate the significance of these observations and to study the effects of cell death deregulation during skin carcinogenesis, we generated a transgenic mouse model (HK1.bcl-2) using the human keratin 1 promoter to target the expression of a human bcl-2 minigene to the epidermis. Transgenic protein expression was confirmed in all the layers of the epidermis except the stratum corneum using immunohistochemistry. Multifocal epidermal hyperplasia, without associated hyperkeratosis, was observed in newborn HK1.bcl-2 mice. Immunofluorescence staining using monoclonal antibodies specific for a variety of differentiation markers revealed aberrant expression of keratin 6 (K6) in the transgenic epidermis. Epidermal proliferative indexes, assessed by anti-BrdUrd immunofluorescence staining, were similar in control and transgenic newborn mice, but suprabasal proliferating cells were seen within the hyperplastic areas of the transgenic mouse skin. Spontaneous apoptotic indices of the epidermis were similar in both control and HK1.bcl-2 transgenic newborn mice, however, after UV-B irradiation, the number of "sunburn cells" was significantly higher in the control compared to the HK1.bcl-2 transgenic animals.^ Adult HK1.bcl-2 and control littermate mice were used in UV-B and chemical carcinogenesis protocols including DMBA + TPA. UV-B irradiated control and HK1.bcl-2 mice had comparable incidence of tumors than the controls, but the mean latency period was significantly shorter in the HK1.bcl-2 transgenic. Both control and transgenic animals included in chemical carcinogenesis protocols required application of both the initiating (DMBA) and promoting (TPA) agents to develop tumors. The frequency, number, and latency of tumor formation was similar in both groups of animals, however, HK1.bcl-2 mice exhibited a rate of conversion from benign papilloma to carcinoma 2.5 times greater than controls.^ Similar carcinogenesis experiments were performed using newborn mice. HK1.bcl-2 mice treated with UV-B plus TPA have a three fold greater incidence of tumor formation compared to controls littermates. HK1.bcl-2 transgenic animals also exhibited a shorter latency for papilloma formation when treated with DMBA plus TPA.^ HK1.bcl-2/v-Ha-ras double transgenic mice shared phenotypic features of both HK1.v-Ha-ras and HK1.bcl-2 transgenic mice, and exhibited focal areas of augmented hyperplasia. These double transgenic mice were susceptible to tumor formation by treatment with TPA alone.^ Cultures of primary keratinocytes were established from control, HK1.bcl-2, HK1.Ha-ras, and HK1.bcl-2/v-Ha-ras newborn mice. Cell viability was determined after exposure of the cells to UV-B irradiation, DMBA, TPA, or TGF-$\beta$1. Internucleosomal DNA fragmentation ("ladders") and morphological cellular changes compatible with apoptotic cell death were observed after the application of all these agents. HK1.bcl-2 keratinocytes were resistant to cell death induction by all of these agents except TGF-$\beta$1. HK1.Ha-ras cells had a higher spontaneous rate of cell death which could be compensated by co-expression of bcl-2.^ These findings suggest that bcl-2 dependent cell death suppression may be an important component of multistep skin carcinogenesis. ^