Two prognostic factors in breast cancer: Novel functions of EGFR and beta-catenin

In this study, we demonstrated the novel functions of two important prognostic markers in breast cancer, EGFR and b -catenin in proliferation and/or other transformation phenotype. ^ First we demonstrated that EGFR could be detected in the nucleus in highly proliferating tissues, including primary breast cancer samples and a breast cancer cell line. We found that EGFR contained a strong transactivation domain, complexed with an AT-rich consensus DNA sequence and activated promoters containing this sequence, including cyclin D1 promoter. Therefore, EGFR may function as a transcription factor to activate genes required for highly proliferating activity such as cyclin D1 in breast cancer. ^ In the second part of this study, we identified b -catenin as an important prognostic factor in breast cancer. We found that cyclin D1 was one of the genes regulated by b -catenin in breast cancer cells. The transactivation activity of b -catenin correlated significantly with cyclin D1 expression in both breast cancer cell lines and in breast cancer patient samples, in which high b -catenin activity correlated with poor prognosis of the patients. Moreover, blockage of b -catenin activity significantly inhibited transformation phenotypes in breast cancer cells. Therefore, our results indicate that b -catenin can be involved in breast cancer formation and/or progression and may serve as a target for breast cancer therapy. ^

Analysis of prognostic factors for the development of metastases and survival in renal cell carcinoma patients

Introduction and objective. A number of prognostic factors have been reported for predicting survival in patients with renal cell carcinoma. Yet few studies have analyzed the effects of those factors at different stages of the disease process. In this study, different stages of disease progression starting from nephrectomy to metastasis, from metastasis to death, and from evaluation to death were evaluated. ^ Methods. In this retrospective follow-up study, records of 97 deceased renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients were reviewed between September 2006 to October 2006. Patients with TNM Stage IV disease before nephrectomy or with cancer diagnoses other than RCC were excluded leaving 64 records for analysis. Patient TNM staging, Furhman Grade, age, tumor size, tumor volume, histology and patient gender were analyzed in relation to time to metastases. Time from nephrectomy to metastasis, TNM staging, Furhman Grade, age, tumor size, tumor volume, histology and patient gender were tested for significance in relation to time from metastases to death. Finally, analysis of laboratory values at time of evaluation, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG), UCLA Integrated Staging System (UISS), time from nephrectomy to metastasis, TNM staging, Furhman Grade, age, tumor size, tumor volume, histology and patient gender were tested for significance in relation to time from evaluation to death. Linear regression and Cox Proportional Hazard (univariate and multivariate) was used for testing significance. Kaplan-Meier Log-Rank test was used to detect any significance between groups at various endpoints. ^ Results. Compared to negative lymph nodes at time of nephrectomy, a single positive lymph node had significantly shorter time to metastasis (p<0.0001). Compared to other histological types, clear cell histology had significant metastasis free survival (p=0.003). Clear cell histology compared to other types (p=0.0002 univariate, p=0.038 multivariate) and time to metastasis with log conversion (p=0.028) significantly affected time from metastasis to death. A greater than one year and greater than two year metastasis free interval, compared to patients that had metastasis before one and two years, had statistically significant survival benefit (p=0.004 and p=0.0318). Time from evaluation to death was affected by greater than one year metastasis free interval (p=0.0459), alcohol consumption (p=0.044), LDH (p=0.006), ECOG performance status (p<0.001), and hemoglobin level (p=0.0092). The UISS risk stratified the patient population in a statistically significant manner for survival (p=0.001). No other factors were found to be significant. ^ Conclusion. Clear cell histology is predictive for both time to metastasis and metastasis to death. Nodal status at time of nephrectomy may predict risk of metastasis. The time interval to metastasis significantly predicts time from metastasis to death and time from evaluation to death. ECOG performance status, and hemoglobin levels predicts survival outcome at evaluation. Finally, UISS appropriately stratifies risk in our population. ^

Prognostic factors in desmoid tumors

Purpose. To evaluate the prognostic factors in desmoid tumors in the light of its possible use in standardizing the treatment strategy of an individual patient. ^ Patients and methods. A retrospective review of 189 consecutive patients who were treated at MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC) from January 1995 to December 2005 was done. Univariate and multivariate analysis of different prognostic factors was done on all patients, patients treated with surgery alone, subset of patients who came to MDACC with primary tumor. The median follow up was 63 months. Also the analysis of 189 desmoid patients treated at MDACC between 1995 and 2005 was compared to results of 189 desmoid patients treated at MDACC from 1965-1994 using data retrieved from a 150 field prospective relational soft tissue tumor database. ^ Results. 5-, and 10-year overall survival rate were 0.976 (95%CI 0.952, 0.999), and 0.966 (95% CI 0.935, 0.996), respectively. 5-, and 10-year recurrence free rate were 0.803 (95%CI 0.738, 0.868), and 0.793 (95% CI 0.726, 0.860), respectively. 5 year recurrence free survival for surgery alone, radiotherapy alone, chemotherapy alone and combination regimen were 0.759, 0.625, 0.933, and 0.802 respectively. Age (>30 vs. <=30) and primary tumor site (extremity vs visceral) were two prognostic factors significantly associated with local recurrence in all of the patients. ^ Conclusion. An increased awareness of the complex multidisciplinary management needed for successful control of desmoid tumor may underlie a significantly increased number of desmoid referrals, especially primary untreated desmoids, to UTMDACC. The careful prospective integration of multiple therapies has led to a significant recent improvement in desmoid patient outcome. These trends should be supported, particularly if personalized molecular-based therapies are to be rapidly and effectively deployed for the benefit of those afflicted by this rare and potentially devastating disease.^

Predictors of survival in Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is associated with greater mortality and reduced survival among individuals with Alzheimer's disease as compared to those without dementia. It is uncertain how these survival estimates change when the clinical signs and/or symptoms of comorbid conditions are present in individuals' with Alzheimer's disease. Cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, congestive heart failure, coronary artery disease, and diabetes mellitus are common conditions in the aged population. Independently, these factors influence mortality and may have an additive effect on reduced survival in an individual with concomitant Alzheimer's disease. The bulk of the evidence from previous research efforts suggests an association between vascular co-morbidities and Alzheimer's disease incidence, but their role in survival remains to be elucidated. The objective of this proposed study was to examine the effects of cardiovascular comorbidities on the survival experience of individuals with probable Alzheimer's disease in order to identify prognostic factors for life expectancy following onset of disease. This study utilized data from the Baylor College of Medicine Alzheimer's Disease Center (ADC) longitudinal study of Alzheimer's disease and other memory disorders. Individuals between the ages of 55-69, 70-79, and ≥80 had a median survival from date of onset of 9.2 years, 8.0 years, and 7.2 years, respectively (p<0.001) and 5.5 years, 4.3 years, and 3.4 years from diagnosis. Sex was the strongest predictor of death from onset of AD, with females having a 30 percent lower risk compared to males. These findings further support the notion that age (both from onset and from diagnosis) and sex are the strongest predictors of survival among those with AD. ^

Racial and ethnic disparities in diabetes mellitus and hypertension: Influence of income and insurance status in a cross-sectional study of the United States

Racial/ethnic disparities in diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) have been observed and explained by socioeconomic status (education level, income level, etc.), screening, early diagnosis, treatment, prognostic factors, and adherence to treatment regimens. To the author's knowledge, there are no studies addressing disparities in hypertension and diabetes mellitus utilizing Hispanics as the reference racial/ethnic group and adjusting for sociodemographics and prognostic factors. This present study examined racial/ethnic disparities in HTN and DM and assessed whether this disparity is explained by sociodemographics. To assess these associations, the study utilized a cross-sectional design and examined the distribution of the covariates for racial/ethnic group differences, using the Pearson Chi Square statistic. The study focused on Non-Hispanic Blacks since this ethnic group is associated with the worst health outcomes. Logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence odds ratio (POR) and to adjust for the confounding effects of the covariates. Results indicated that except for insurance coverage, there were statistically significant differences between Non-Hispanic Blacks and Non-Hispanic Whites, as well as Hispanics with respect to study covariates. In the unadjusted logistic regression model, there was a statistically significant increased prevalence of hypertension among Non-Hispanic Blacks compared to Hispanics, POR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02-1.80. Low income was statistically significantly associated with increased prevalence of hypertension, POR 0.38, 95% CI 0.32-0.46. Insurance coverage, though not statistically significant, was associated with an increase in the prevalence of hypertension, p>0.05. Concerning DM, Non-Hispanic Blacks were more likely to be diabetic, POR 1.10, 95% CI 0.85-1.47. High income was statistically significantly associated with decreased prevalence of DM, POR 0.47, 95% CI 0.39-0.57. After adjustment for the relevant covariates, the racial disparities between Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Blacks in HTN was removed, adjusted prevalence odds (APOR) 1.21, 95% CI 0.88-1.67. In this sample, there was racial/ethnic disparity in hypertension but not in diabetes mellitus between Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Blacks, with disparities in hypertension associated with socioeconomic status (family income, education, marital status) and also by alcohol, physical activity and age. However, race, education and BMI as class variables were statistically significantly associated with hypertension and diabetes mellitus p<0.0001. ^

An empirical evaluation of the Random Forests classifier models for variable selection in a large-scale lung cancer case-control study

Random Forests™ is reported to be one of the most accurate classification algorithms in complex data analysis. It shows excellent performance even when most predictors are noisy and the number of variables is much larger than the number of observations. In this thesis Random Forests was applied to a large-scale lung cancer case-control study. A novel way of automatically selecting prognostic factors was proposed. Also, synthetic positive control was used to validate Random Forests method. Throughout this study we showed that Random Forests can deal with large number of weak input variables without overfitting. It can account for non-additive interactions between these input variables. Random Forests can also be used for variable selection without being adversely affected by collinearities. ^ Random Forests can deal with the large-scale data sets without rigorous data preprocessing. It has robust variable importance ranking measure. Proposed is a novel variable selection method in context of Random Forests that uses the data noise level as the cut-off value to determine the subset of the important predictors. This new approach enhanced the ability of the Random Forests algorithm to automatically identify important predictors for complex data. The cut-off value can also be adjusted based on the results of the synthetic positive control experiments. ^ When the data set had high variables to observations ratio, Random Forests complemented the established logistic regression. This study suggested that Random Forests is recommended for such high dimensionality data. One can use Random Forests to select the important variables and then use logistic regression or Random Forests itself to estimate the effect size of the predictors and to classify new observations. ^ We also found that the mean decrease of accuracy is a more reliable variable ranking measurement than mean decrease of Gini. ^

Molecular mechanisms of response in gastrointestinal stromal tumors treated with imatinib mesylate

Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) represent 80% of sarcoma arising from the GI tract. The inciting event in tumor progression is mutation of the kit or, rarely, platelet derived growth factor receptor-α (PDGFR) gene. These mutations encode ligand independent, constitutively active proteins: Kit or PDGFR. ^ These tumors are notoriously chemo and radio resistant. Historically, patients with advanced disease realized a median overall survival of 9 months. However, with modern management of GIST with imatinib mesylate (Novartis), a small molecule inhibitor of the Kit, PDGFR, and Abl tyrosine kinases, patients now realize a median overall survival greater than 30 months. However, almost half of patients present with surgically resectable GIST and the utility of imatinib in this context has not been prospectively studied. Also, therapeutic benefit of imatinib is variable from patient to patient and alternative targeted therapy is emerging as potential alternatives to imatinib. Thus, elucidating prognostic factors for patients with GIST in the imatinib-era is crucial to providing optimal care to each particular patient. Moreover, the exact mechanism of action of imatinib in GIST is not fully understood. Therefore, physicians find difficulty in accurately predicting which patient will benefit from imatinib, how to assess response to therapy, and the time at which to assess response. ^ I have hypothesized that imatinib is tolerable and clinically beneficial in the context of surgery, VEGF expression and kit non-exon 11 genotypes portend poor survival on imatinib therapy, and imatinib's mechanism of action is in part due to anti-vascular effects and inhibition of the Kit/SCF signaling axis of tumor-associated endothelial cells. ^ Results herein demonstrate that imatinib is safe and increases the duration of disease-free survival when combined with surgery. Radiographic and molecular (namely, apoptosis) changes occur within 3 days of imatinib initiation. I illustrate that non-exon 11 mutant genotypes and VEGF are poor prognostic factors for patients treated with imatinib. These findings may allow for patient stratification to emerging therapies rather than imatinib. I show that imatinib has anti-vascular effects via inducing tumor endothelial cell apoptosis perhaps by abrogation of the Kit/SCF signaling axis. ^

Survival of gastrointestinal and stromal tumor patients at UT M.D. Anderson Cancer Center

Objective. Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumors (GISTs) are rare mesenchymal tumors of the gastrointestinal (GI) tract with spindled cell, epithelioid, or occasionally pleomorphic morphology. The primary objective of this paper is to describe the demographic and clinical characteristics and survival among GIST patients registered at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC). ^ Methods. This cohort study includes 783 consecutive patients diagnosed with GIST from 1995 to 2007. Demographic, clinical and survival information were obtained from the MDACC cancer registry. ^ Statistical Analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival curves, univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis were conducted to estimate survival and identify prognostic clinical factors associated with survival. Results. The age at diagnosis of MDACC GIST cases ranged from 17 to 91 with a mean of 57 years and a male-to-female ratio of 1.3:1. The racial distribution was whites 77%, African-Americans 9.5%, Hispanics 9.3% and other races 4.2%. Fifty per cent of the GISTs arose from stomach, 35% small intestine, 7% retroperitoneal space, 6% colorectal and 2% were omentum and mesentery. About half of the tumors were less than 10 cm in size. Fifty eight per cent of the tumors were localized whereas 36% were metastatic. MDACC GIST patients were generally comparable to SEER patients, but, on the average, were 7 years younger than SEER patients and were predominantly whites. ^ Stratification of 783 GIST cases by year of diagnosis based on the introduction of imatinib treatment in 2000 revealed that 60% of the GIST cases were first diagnosed between 2000 and 2007 whereas, 40% were first diagnosed between 1995 and 1999. There was a significant difference between the two cohorts in the distribution of race, GIST symptom, tumor size, tumor site, and stage of the tumor at diagnosis. The 1- and 5-year survival was 93% and 59% in the 1995–2007 cohort. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified age at diagnosis (p<0.001), female sex (p=0.047), tumor size (p=0.07), multiple cancers (p=0.002), and GIST diagnosed between 2000 and 2007 (p<0.001) were significantly associated with survival. Approximately, 58% of the cases were treated with imatinib whereas 42% did not receive imatinib in 2000–2005 cohort. There was a significant difference in survival between imatinib and non-imatinib groups and in the distribution of tumor size categories, stage of the tumor at diagnosis and cancers before the diagnosis of GIST. The 1- and 5-year survival for imatinib patients was 99% and 73% and was 91% and 63% for non-imatinib patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis of the 2000–2007 cohort identified, age at diagnosis and tumor stage as possible prognostic factors associated with survival.^

Clinical and epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer metastases

Introduction. Breast cancer is a highly variable disease, and long-term outcomes for individual patients are difficult to predict. We evaluated a retrospective cohort of early stage breast cancer (ESBC) patients based on a variety of clinical and epidemiological factors, specifically looking at the distribution of metastasis and associations with these clinical and epidemiological factors. ^ Methods. Patients were derived from the Early Stage Breast Cancer Repository (ESBCR) with a breast cancer diagnosed between 1985 and 2000. We conducted univariate and multivariate analysis of the data to evaluate associations between characteristics and occurrence of overall, visceral, and bone metastasis. Visceral metastasis was defined as lung, liver, peritoneal, lymph node (thoracic, abdominal, pelvis), and contralateral breast cancer. ^ Results. Overall, 394 (16%) patients developed a metastasis. Of these, 83% were visceral and 17% were bone. Multivariate analyses identified the following variables to be associated with metastasis: Any metastasis: age at diagnosis, stage, ER/PR status, hormone treatment, and type of surgery (1)Visceral metastasis: age at diagnosis, stage, hormone treatment, and type of surgery (2) Bone metastasis –Alcohol use, stage, and ER/PR status ^ Discussion/conclusion. ER-/PR- status has previously been found to be associated with bone metastasis, as we confirm in our cohort. We report an association between alcohol use and bone metastasis whereas previous studies find an association with recurrence. Distribution of metastases varies from previous studies. Typically, previous studies reported bone metastasis >30%, yet our study found 17%. Previous studies varied in design, and definition of visceral metastasis. Future research is needed to further elucidate prognostic factors associated with specific metastases A more thorough understanding of what might predict which ESBC patients will develop metastases can help direct future treatment. Future studies of this nature could include the Perou intrinsic subtypes, biomarkers like Ki-67, and genetic analyses such as Oncotype DX or MammaPrint.^

Retrospective cohort study to determine the effect of metformin on survival of diabetic patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma

Background: Pancreatic cancer is the fourth most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Despite advances in cancer treatment, prognosis of pancreatic cancer remains extremely poor with survival rates of 24% and 5% in 1 and 5 years, respectively. Many patients with pancreatic cancer have a history of diabetes and are treated with various antidiabetic regimens including metformin. In multiple retrospective studies, metformin has been associated with decreased risk of cancer and cancer-related mortality. Metformin has also been reported to inhibit the growth of cancer cells, both in vitro and in vivo.^ Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study to examine the survival benefit of metformin in diabetic patients with pancreatic cancer at MD Anderson Cancer Center (MDACC). A dataset of 397 patients who carried the diagnosis of "Diabetes Mellitus" and "Pancreatic Cancer" at MD Anderson were screened for this study. ^ Results: Mean age of patients at diagnosis of cancer was 64.0 ± 8.7 years (range 37-84). The majority of the patients were male (65.6%) and of Caucasian race (78.5%). The most common antidiabetic regimen used were insulin and metformin (in 39.1% and 38.7%, respectively). Patients' cancer were staged as resectable in 34.1%, locally advanced unresectable in 29.1%, and disseminated disease in 36.7% of cases. Overall 1-year and 3-year survival rates for all stages combined were 51.8% and 7.6%, respectively. Earlier stage, metformin use, low CA19-9 level, better ECOG performance status, surgical intervention, negative surgical margins, and smaller tumor size were associated with longer survival. Metformin use was associated with a 33% decrease in risk of death (HR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.51-0.88). Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression showed hazard ratio of 1.77 (95% CI 1.49-2.10) for cancer stage, 0.65 (95% CI 0.49-0.86) for metformin use, and 1.68 (95% CI 1.26-2.23) for CA 19-9 level above population median. ^ Conclusion: Our study suggests that metformin may improve the outcome in diabetic patients with pancreatic cancer independently of other known prognostic factors. Pancreatic cancer carries extremely poor prognosis; metformin may provide a suitable adjunct therapeutic option for pancreatic cancer in patients with and without diabetes mellitus.^

Penetrating injuries of the thorax and abdomen: Type of medical-care institution and case fatality

The purpose of this study was to determine, for penetrating injuries (gunshot, stab) of the chest/abdomen, the impact on fatality of treatment in trauma centers and shock trauma units compared with general hospitals. Medical records of all cases of penetrating injury limited to chest/abdomen and admitted to and discharged from 7 study facilities in Baltimore city 1979-1980 (n = 581) were studied: 4 general hospitals (n = 241), 2 area-wide trauma centers (n = 298), and a shock trauma unit (n = 42). Emergency center and transferred cases were not studied. Anatomical injury severity, measured by modified Injury Severity Score (mISS), was a significant prognostic factor for death, as were cardiovascular shock (SBP $\le$ 70), injury type (gunshot vs stab), and ambulance/helicopter (vs other) transport. All deaths occurred in cases with two or more prognostic factors. Unadjusted relative risks of death compared with general hospitals were 4.3 (95% confidence interval = 2.2, 8.4) for shock trauma and 0.8 (0.4, 1.7) for trauma centers. Controlling for prognostic factors by logistic regression resulted in these relative risks: shock trauma 4.0 (0.7, 22.2), and trauma centers 0.8 (0.2, 3.2). Factors significantly associated with increased risk had the following relative risks by multiple logistic regression: SBP $\le$ 70 (RR = 40.7 (11.0, 148.7)), highest mISS (42 (7.7, 227)), gunshot (8.4 (2.1, 32.6)), and ambulance/helicopter transport (17.2 (1.3, 228.1)). Controlling for age, race, and gender did not alter results significantly. Actual deaths compared with deaths predicted from a multivariable model of general-hospital cases showed 3.7 more than predicted deaths in shock trauma (SMR = 1.6 (0.8, 2.9)) and 0.7 more than predicted deaths in area-wide trauma centers (SMR = 1.05 (0.6, 1.7)). Selection bias due to exclusion of transfers and emergency center cases, and residual confounding due to insufficient injury information, may account for persistence of adjusted high case fatality in shock trauma. Studying all cases prospectively, including emergency center and transferred cases, is needed. ^

Seasonal aspects of leukemia

An investigation of (a) month/season-of-birth as a risk factor and (b) month/season-of-treatment initation as a prognostic factor in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in children, 0-15 years of age, was conducted. The study population used was that of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute and included children diagnosed and treated for ALL from 1973-1986. Two separate sets of analyses using different exclusion criteria led to similar results. Specifically, the inability to reject the null hypothesis of no significant difference in the variation of monthly/seasonal incidence rates among children residing within the 10 SEER sites using either cosinor analysis or one-way analysis of variance. No association was established between month/season of treatment initiation and survival in ALL among children using either Kaplan-Meier or cosinor analysis. In separate Kaplan-Meier analyses, age, gender, and treatment type were each found to be significant univariate prognostic factors for survival, however. ^

Prognosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Two cohorts of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients were identified. One incidence-based cohort from Harris County, Texas with 97 cases, and the other a clinic referral series from an ALS clinic in Houston, Texas with 439 cases were followed-up to evaluate the prognosis of ALS. The overall Kaplan-Meier 3-year survival after diagnosis was similar, 0.287 for the incidence cohort and 0.313 for the referral cohort. However, the 5-year survival was much lower for the incidence cohort than the referral cohort (0.037 vs. 0.206). The large difference in 5-year survival was thought to be the results of a stronger unfavorable effect of the prognostic factors in the incidence cohort than in the referral cohort.^ Cohort-specific Weibull regression models were derived to evaluate the cohort-specific prognostic factors and survival probability with adjustment of certain prognostic factors.^ The major prognostic factors were: age at diagnosis, bulbar onset, black ethnicity, and positive family history of ALS in both cohorts. Female gender, simultaneous upper and lower extremities onset were specifically unfavorable factors in the incidence cohort. In the incidence cohort the prognosis was relatively favorable for cases with duration from onset to diagnosis longer than 4 months, however in the referral cohort the relatively favorable prognosis only occurred in cases with duration from onset to diagnosis 1 year or longer and was strongest in cases with duration 5 years and longer. Age at diagnosis modified the effect of bulbar onset in the incidence cohort but not in the referral cohort. The estimated survival with presence of an unfavorable prognostic factor identified in the incidence cohort was higher for the referral cohort than for the incidence cohort. Future studies are indicated to investigate the disease heterogeneity issue of ALS based on survival distribution of ALS. ^

Natural history of placebo treatment in adults acquiring travelers' diarrhea in Mexico

The natural history of placebo treated travelers' diarrhea and the prognostic factors of recovery from diarrhea were evaluated using 9 groups of placebo treated subjects from 9 clinical trial studies conducted since 1975, for use as a historical control in the future clinical trial of antidiarrheal agents. All of these studies were done by the same group of investigators in one site (Guadalajara, Mexico). The studies are similar in terms of population, measured parameters, microbiologic identification of enteropathogens and definitions of parameters. The studies had two different durations of followup. In some studies, subjects were followed for two days, and in some they were followed for five days.^ Using definitions established by the Infectious Diseases society of America and the Food and Drug Administration, the following efficacy parameters were evaluated: Time to last unformed stool (TLUS), number of unformed stools post-initiation of placebo treatment for five consecutive days of followup, microbiologic cure, and improvement of diarrhea. Among the groups that were followed for five days, the mean TLUS ranged from 59.1 to 83.5 hours. Fifty percent to 78% had diarrhea lasting more than 48 hours and 25% had diarrhea more than five days. The mean number of unformed stools passed on the first day post-initiation of therapy ranged from 3.6 to 5.8 and, for the fifth day ranged from 0.5 to 1.5. By the end of followup, diarrhea improved in 82.6% to 90% of the subjects. Subjects with enterotoxigenic E. coli had 21.6% to 90.0% microbiologic cure; and subjects with shigella species experienced 14.3% to 60.0% microbiologic cure.^ In evaluating the prognostic factors of recovery from diarrhea (primary efficacy parameter in evaluating the efficacy of antidiarrheal agents against travelers' diarrhea). The subjects from five studies were pooled and the Cox proportional hazard model was used to evaluate the predictors of prolonged diarrhea. After adjusting for design characteristics of each trial, fever with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.40, presence of invasive pathogens with a RR of 0.41, presence of severe abdominal pain and cramps with a RR of 0.50, number of watery stools more than five with a RR of 0.60, and presence of non-invasive pathogens with a RR of 0.84 predicted a longer duration of diarrhea. Severe vomiting with a RR of 2.53 predicted a shorter duration of diarrhea. The number of soft stools, presence of fecal leukocytes, presence of nausea, and duration of diarrhea before enrollment were not associated with duration of diarrhea. ^

Mixture modeling for joint analysis of survival, discrete, and continuous data

Mixture modeling is commonly used to model categorical latent variables that represent subpopulations in which population membership is unknown but can be inferred from the data. In relatively recent years, the potential of finite mixture models has been applied in time-to-event data. However, the commonly used survival mixture model assumes that the effects of the covariates involved in failure times differ across latent classes, but the covariate distribution is homogeneous. The aim of this dissertation is to develop a method to examine time-to-event data in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity under a framework of mixture modeling. A joint model is developed to incorporate the latent survival trajectory along with the observed information for the joint analysis of a time-to-event variable, its discrete and continuous covariates, and a latent class variable. It is assumed that the effects of covariates on survival times and the distribution of covariates vary across different latent classes. The unobservable survival trajectories are identified through estimating the probability that a subject belongs to a particular class based on observed information. We applied this method to a Hodgkin lymphoma study with long-term follow-up and observed four distinct latent classes in terms of long-term survival and distributions of prognostic factors. Our results from simulation studies and from the Hodgkin lymphoma study demonstrated the superiority of our joint model compared with the conventional survival model. This flexible inference method provides more accurate estimation and accommodates unobservable heterogeneity among individuals while taking involved interactions between covariates into consideration.^