5 resultados para contingency table

em Digital Commons - Michigan Tech


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Between 1966 and 2003, the Golden-winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) experienced declines of 3.4% per year in large parts of the breeding range and has been identified by Partners in Flight as one of 28 land birds requiring expedient action to prevent its continued decline. It is currently being considered for listing under the Endangered Species Act. A major step in advancing our understanding of the status and habitat preferences of Golden-winged Warbler populations in the Upper Midwest was initiated by the publication of new predictive spatially explicit Golden-winged Warbler habitat models for the northern Midwest. Here, I use original data on observed Golden-winged Warbler abundances in Wisconsin and Minnesota to compare two population models: the hierarchical spatial count (HSC) model with the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model. I assessed how well the field data compared to the model predictions and found that within Wisconsin, the HSC model performed slightly better than the HSI model whereas both models performed relatively equally in Minnesota. For the HSC model, I found a 10% error of commission in Wisconsin and a 24.2% error of commission for Minnesota. Similarly, the HSI model has a 23% error of commission in Minnesota; in Wisconsin due to limited areas where the HSI model predicted absences, there was incomplete data and I was unable to determine the error of commission for the HSI model. These are sites where the model predicted presences and the Golden-winged Warbler did not occur. To compare predicted abundance from the two models, a 3x3 contingency table was used. I found that when overlapped, the models do not complement one another in identifying Golden-winged Warbler presences. To calculate discrepancy between the models, the error of commission shows that the HSI model has only a 6.8% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSC model. The HSC model has only 3.3% chance of correctly classifying absences in the HSI model. These findings highlight the importance of grasses for nesting, shrubs used for cover and foraging, and trees for song perches and foraging as key habitat characteristics for breeding territory occupancy by singing males.

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Northern peatlands are large reservoirs of soil organic carbon (C). Historically peatlands have served as a sink for C since decomposition is slowed primarily because of a raised water table (WT) that creates anoxic conditions. Climate models are predicting dramatic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns for the northern hemisphere that contain more than 90% of the world’s peatlands. It is uncertain whether climate change will shift northern peatlands from C sequestering systems to a major global C source within the next century because of alterations to peatland hydrology. This research investigated the effects of 80 years of hydrological manipulations on peatland C cycling in a poor fen peatland in northern Michigan. The construction of an earthen levee within the Seney National Wildlife Refuge in the 1930’s resulted in areas of raised and lowered WT position relative to an intermediate WT site that was unaltered by the levee. We established sites across the gradient of long-term WT manipulations to examine how decadal changes in WT position alter peatland C cycling. We quantified vegetation dynamics, peat substrate quality, and pore water chemistry in relation to trace gas C cycling in these manipulated areas as well as the intermediate site. Vegetation in both the raised and lowered WT treatments has different community structure, biomass, and productivity dynamics compared to the intermediate site. Peat substrate quality exhibited differences in chemical composition and lability across the WT treatments. Pore water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations increased with impoundment and WT drawdown. The raised WT treatment DOC has a low aromaticity and is a highly labile C source, whereas WT drawdown has increased DOC aromaticity. This study has demonstrated a subtle change of the long-term WT position in a northern peatland will induce a significant influence on ecosystem C cycling with implications for the fate of peatland C stocks.

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Due to warmer and drier conditions, wildland fire has been increasing in extent into peatland ecosystems during recent decades. As such, there is an increasing need for broadly applicable tools to detect surface peat moisture, in order to ascertain the susceptibility of peat burning, and the vulnerability of deep peat consumption in the event of a wildfire. In this thesis, a field portable spectroradiometer was used to measure surface reflectance of two Sphagnum moss dominated peatlands. Relationships were developed correlating spectral indices to surface moisture as well as water table position. Spectral convolutions were also applied to the high resolution spectra to represent spectral sensitivity of earth observing sensors. Band ratios previously used to monitor surface moisture with these sensors were assessed. Strong relationships to surface moisture and water table position are evident for both the narrowband indices as well as broadened indices. This study also found a dependence of certain spectral relationships on changes in vegetation cover by leveraging an experimental vegetation manipulation. Results indicate broadened indices employing the 1450-1650 nm region may be less stable under changing vegetation cover than those located in the 1200 nm region.

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Northern wetlands, and particularly peatlands, have been shown to store around 30% of the world's soil carbon and thus play a significant role in the carbon cycle of our planet. Changes in climate are altering peatland hydrology and vegetation communities. These changes are possibly resulting in declines in the ability of peatlands to sequester carbon because losses through carbon oxidation and mineralization are likely to increase relative to C inputs from net primary production in a warmer, drier climate. However, the consequences of interactive effects of altered hydrology and vegetation on carbon storage are not well understood. This research evaluated the importance of plant species, water table, and their interactive effects on porewater quality in a northern peatland with an average pH of 4.54, ranging from 4.15 to 4.8. We assessed the effects of plant functional group (ericaceous shrubs, sedges, and bryophytes) and water table position on biogeochemical processes. Specifically, we measured dissolved organic carbon (DOC), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), potential enzyme activity, organic acids, anions and cations, spectral indexes of aromaticity, and phenolic content. Our results indicate that acetate and propionate concentrations in the sedge-dominated communities declined with depth and water table drawdown, relative to the control and ericaceous treatments. DOC increased in the lowered water table treatments in all vegetation community types, and the peat porewater C:N ratio declined in the sedge-dominated treatments when the water table was lowered. The relationship between DOC and ferrous iron showed significant responses to vegetation type; the exclusion of Ericaceae resulted in less ferrous iron per unit DOC compared to mixed species treatments and Ericaceae alone. This observation was corroborated with higher mean oxidation redox potential profiles (integrating 20, 40, and 70 cm) measured in the sedge treatments, compared with the mixed and Ericaceae species treatments over a growing season. Enzymatic activities did not show as strong of a response to treatments as expected; the oxidative enzyme peroxidase and the hydrolytic enzyme phosphatase were the only enzymes to respond to water table, where the potential activity of both enzymes increased with water table drawdown. Overall, there were significant interactive effects between changes in vegetation and water table position on peat porewater composition. These data suggest that vegetation effects on oxidation reduction potentials and peat porewater character can be as important as water table position in northern bog ecosystems.

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The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the evolution of an early 20th century mining system in Spitsbergen as applied by Boston-based Arctic Coal Company (ACC). This analysis will address the following questions: Did the system evolve in a linear, technological-based fashion? Or was the progression more a product of interactions and negotiations with the natural and human landscapes present during the time of occupation? Answers to these questions will be sought through review of historical records and material residues identified during the 2008 field examination on Spitsbergen. The Arctic Coal Company’s flagship mine, ACC Mine No. 1, will serve as the focus for this analysis. The mine was the company’s largest undertaking during its occupation of Longyear Valley and today exhibits a large collection of related features and artifacts. The study will emphasize on the material record within an analysis of technical, environmental and social influences that guided the course of the mining system. The intent of this thesis is a better understanding of how a particular resource extraction industry took root in the Arctic.