Timing of bacterial carriage sampling in vaccine trials: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Estimates of vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional carriage data collected in RCTs are usually based on prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and prevalence ratios (PRs), but it is unclear when these should be measured. METHODS We developed dynamic compartmental transmission models simulating RCTs of a vaccine against a carried pathogen to investigate how VE can best be estimated from cross-sectional carriage data, at which time carriage should optimally be assessed, and to which factors this timing is most sensitive. In the models, vaccine could change carriage acquisition and clearance rates (leaky vaccine); values for these effects were explicitly defined (facq, 1/fdur). POR and PR were calculated from model outputs. Models differed in infection source: other participants or external sources unaffected by the trial. Simulations using multiple vaccine doses were compared to empirical data. RESULTS The combined VE against acquisition and duration calculated using POR (VEˆacq.dur, (1-POR)×100) best estimates the true VE (VEacq.dur, (1-facq×fdur)×100) for leaky vaccines in most scenarios. The mean duration of carriage was the most important factor determining the time until VEˆacq.dur first approximates VEacq.dur: if the mean duration of carriage is 1-1.5 months, up to 4 months are needed; if the mean duration is 2-3 months, up to 8 months are needed. Minor differences were seen between models with different infection sources. In RCTs with shorter intervals between vaccine doses it takes longer after the last dose until VEˆacq.dur approximates VEacq.dur. CONCLUSION The timing of sample collection should be considered when interpreting vaccine efficacy against bacterial carriage measured in RCTs.

Impact of maternally derived immunity on piglets’ immune response and protection against porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) after vaccination against PCV2 at different age

BACKGROUND: This study was aimed at evaluating the clinical protection, the level of Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) viremia and the immune response (antibodies and IFN-γ secreting cells (SC)) in piglets derived from PCV2 vaccinated sows and themselves vaccinated against PCV2 at different age, namely at 4, 6 and 8 weeks. The cohort study has been carried out over three subsequent production cycles (replicates). At the start/enrolment, 46 gilts were considered at first mating, bled and vaccinated. At the first, second and third farrowing, dams were bled and re-vaccinated at the subsequent mating after weaning piglets. Overall 400 piglets at each farrowing (first, second and third) were randomly allocated in three different groups (100 piglets/group) based on the timing of vaccination (4, 6 or 8 weeks of age). A fourth group was kept non-vaccinated (controls). Piglets were vaccinated intramuscularly with one dose (2 mL) of a commercial PCV2a-based subunit vaccine (Porcilis® PCV). Twenty animals per group were bled at weaning and from vaccination to slaughter every 4 weeks for the detection of PCV2 viremia, humoral and cell-mediated immune responses. Clinical signs and individual treatments (morbidity), mortality, and body weight of all piglets were recorded. RESULTS: All vaccination schemes (4, 6 and 8 weeks of age) were able to induce an antibody response and IFN-γ SC. The highest clinical and virological protection sustained by immune reactivity was observed in pigs vaccinated at 6 weeks of age. Overall, repeated PCV2 vaccination in sows at mating and the subsequent higher levels of maternally derived antibodies did not significantly interfere with the induction of both humoral and cell-mediated immunity in their piglets after vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of vaccination in sows at mating and in piglets at 6 weeks of age was more effective for controlling PCV2 natural infection, than other vaccination schemas, thus sustaining that some interference of MDA with the induction of an efficient immune response could be considered. In conclusion, optimal vaccination strategy needs to balance the levels of passive immunity, the management practices and timing of infection.

Timing of progression from Chlamydia trachomatis infection to pelvic inflammatory disease: a mathematical modelling study

Background Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) results from the ascending spread of microorganisms from the vagina and endocervix to the upper genital tract. PID can lead to infertility, ectopic pregnancy and chronic pelvic pain. The timing of development of PID after the sexually transmitted bacterial infection Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) might affect the impact of screening interventions, but is currently unknown. This study investigates three hypothetical processes for the timing of progression: at the start, at the end, or throughout the duration of chlamydia infection. Methods We develop a compartmental model that describes the trial structure of a published randomised controlled trial (RCT) and allows each of the three processes to be examined using the same model structure. The RCT estimated the effect of a single chlamydia screening test on the cumulative incidence of PID up to one year later. The fraction of chlamydia infected women who progress to PID is obtained for each hypothetical process by the maximum likelihood method using the results of the RCT. Results The predicted cumulative incidence of PID cases from all causes after one year depends on the fraction of chlamydia infected women that progresses to PID and on the type of progression. Progression at a constant rate from a chlamydia infection to PID or at the end of the infection was compatible with the findings of the RCT. The corresponding estimated fraction of chlamydia infected women that develops PID is 10% (95% confidence interval 7-13%) in both processes. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that clinical PID can occur throughout the course of a chlamydia infection, which will leave a window of opportunity for screening to prevent PID.

Insights into the timing of repeated testing after treatment for Chlamydia trachomatis: data and modelling study

The objective of this study was to determine the optimal time interval for a repeated Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) test.

Predicting spike timing of neocortical pyramidal neurons by simple threshold models

Neurons generate spikes reliably with millisecond precision if driven by a fluctuating current--is it then possible to predict the spike timing knowing the input? We determined parameters of an adapting threshold model using data recorded in vitro from 24 layer 5 pyramidal neurons from rat somatosensory cortex, stimulated intracellularly by a fluctuating current simulating synaptic bombardment in vivo. The model generates output spikes whenever the membrane voltage (a filtered version of the input current) reaches a dynamic threshold. We find that for input currents with large fluctuation amplitude, up to 75% of the spike times can be predicted with a precision of +/-2 ms. Some of the intrinsic neuronal unreliability can be accounted for by a noisy threshold mechanism. Our results suggest that, under random current injection into the soma, (i) neuronal behavior in the subthreshold regime can be well approximated by a simple linear filter; and (ii) most of the nonlinearities are captured by a simple threshold process.

PVR recurrence and the timing of silicon oil removal

BACKGROUND: Following vitrectomy for PVR-associated retinal detachment, placement of an encircling band, filling with silicone oil (SO) and successful retinal reattachment, a recurrence of PVR can develop. Retinal redetachment after SO removal is usually due to secondary or residual PVR. We wanted to ascertain whether the anatomical and functional outcomes of surgery in patients with a reattached retina and recurrent PVR can be improved by delaying the removal of SO. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 112 consecutive patients with PVR-associated retinal detachment who had undergone vitrectomy with SO filling, were monitored for at least 6 months after SO removal. Prior to SO removal, the retina posterior to the encircling band had to be completely reattached. Patients who developed PVR after SO filling were divided into two groups according to the duration of SO retention: 12 - 18 months (group 2: n = 48); > 18 months (group 3: n = 21). Individuals without PVR recurrence after SO filling and in whom the SO was consequently removed within 4 - 12 months served as control (group 1: n = 43). Anatomical success, intraocular pressure (IOP) and best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) served as the primary clinical outcome parameters. RESULTS: Six months after SO removal, the anatomical success rates (86.3 %, 88.8 % and 84.6 %, in groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively; log rank = 0.794) and the BCVAs (p = 0.861) were comparable in the three groups. Mean IOP (p = 0.766), and the frequency of complications such as PVR recurrence (p = 0.936), bullous keratopathy (p = 0.981) and macular pucker (p = 0.943) were likewise similar. Patients in whom SO was retained for more than 18 months had the highest IOPs and required the heaviest dosage with anti-glaucoma drugs. CONCLUSIONS: In patients who develop a recurrence of PVR after vitrectomy and SO filling the surgeon can observe and treat retinal changes for up to 18 months without impairing the anatomical and functional outcomes. The retention of SO for more than 18 months does not improve the anatomical outcome. However, it can impair the functional outcome by precipitating the development of a persisting secondary glaucoma.

The timing of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis

OBJECTIVE: To obtain precise information on the optimal time window for surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Although perioperative antimicrobial prophylaxis is a well-established strategy for reducing the risk of surgical site infections (SSI), the optimal timing for this procedure has yet to be precisely determined. Under today's recommendations, antibiotics may be administered within the final 2 hours before skin incision, ideally as close to incision time as possible. METHODS: In this prospective observational cohort study at Basel University Hospital we analyzed the incidence of SSI by the timing of antimicrobial prophylaxis in a consecutive series of 3836 surgical procedures. Surgical wounds and resulting infections were assessed to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention standards. Antimicrobial prophylaxis consisted in single-shot administration of 1.5 g of cefuroxime (plus 500 mg of metronidazole in colorectal surgery). RESULTS: The overall SSI rate was 4.7% (180 of 3836). In 49% of all procedures antimicrobial prophylaxis was administered within the final half hour. Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed a significant increase in the odds of SSI when antimicrobial prophylaxis was administered less than 30 minutes (crude odds ratio = 2.01; adjusted odds ratio = 1.95; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-2.8; P < 0.001) and 120 to 60 minutes (crude odds ratio = 1.75; adjusted odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.9; P = 0.035) as compared with the reference interval of 59 to 30 minutes before incision. CONCLUSIONS: When cefuroxime is used as a prophylactic antibiotic, administration 59 to 30 minutes before incision is more effective than administration during the last half hour.

Using PSA to guide timing of androgen deprivation in patients with T0-4 N0-2 M0 prostate cancer not suitable for local curative treatment (EORTC 30891)

OBJECTIVE: EORTC trial 30891 compared immediate versus deferred androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) in T0-4 N0-2 M0 prostate cancer (PCa). Many patients randomly assigned to deferred ADT did not require ADT because they died before becoming symptomatic. The question arises whether serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels may be used to decide when to initiate ADT in PCa not suitable for local curative treatment. METHODS: PSA data at baseline, PSA doubling time (PSADT) in patients receiving no ADT, and time to PSA relapse (>2 ng/ml) in patients whose PSA declined to <2 ng/ml within the first year after immediate ADT were analyzed in 939 eligible patients randomly assigned to immediate (n=468) or deferred ADT (n=471). RESULTS: In both arms, patients with a baseline PSA>50 ng/ml were at a>3.5-fold higher risk to die of PCa than patients with a baseline PSAof PCa death was approximately 7.5-fold higher in patients with PSADT<12 mo than in patients with PSADT>12 mo. Time to PSA relapse after response to immediate ADT correlated significantly with baseline PSA, suggesting that baseline PSA may also reflect disease aggressiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a baseline PSA>50 ng/ml and/or a PSADT<12 mo were at increased risk to die from PCa and might have benefited from immediate ADT, whereas patients with a baseline PSA<50 ng/ml and a slow PSADT (>12 mo) were likely to die of causes unrelated to PCa, and thus could be spared the burden of immediate ADT.

Timing of initiation of antiretroviral therapy in AIDS-free HIV-1-infected patients: a collaborative analysis of 18 HIV cohort studies

BACKGROUND: The CD4 cell count at which combination antiretroviral therapy should be started is a central, unresolved issue in the care of HIV-1-infected patients. In the absence of randomised trials, we examined this question in prospective cohort studies. METHODS: We analysed data from 18 cohort studies of patients with HIV. Antiretroviral-naive patients from 15 of these studies were eligible for inclusion if they had started combination antiretroviral therapy (while AIDS-free, with a CD4 cell count less than 550 cells per microL, and with no history of injecting drug use) on or after Jan 1, 1998. We used data from patients followed up in seven of the cohorts in the era before the introduction of combination therapy (1989-95) to estimate distributions of lead times (from the first CD4 cell count measurement in an upper range to the upper threshold of a lower range) and unseen AIDS and death events (occurring before the upper threshold of a lower CD4 cell count range is reached) in the absence of treatment. These estimations were used to impute completed datasets in which lead times and unseen AIDS and death events were added to data for treated patients in deferred therapy groups. We compared the effect of deferred initiation of combination therapy with immediate initiation on rates of AIDS and death, and on death alone, in adjacent CD4 cell count ranges of width 100 cells per microL. FINDINGS: Data were obtained for 21 247 patients who were followed up during the era before the introduction of combination therapy and 24 444 patients who were followed up from the start of treatment. Deferring combination therapy until a CD4 cell count of 251-350 cells per microL was associated with higher rates of AIDS and death than starting therapy in the range 351-450 cells per microL (hazard ratio [HR] 1.28, 95% CI 1.04-1.57). The adverse effect of deferring treatment increased with decreasing CD4 cell count threshold. Deferred initiation of combination therapy was also associated with higher mortality rates, although effects on mortality were less marked than effects on AIDS and death (HR 1.13, 0.80-1.60, for deferred initiation of treatment at CD4 cell count 251-350 cells per microL compared with initiation at 351-450 cells per microL). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that 350 cells per microL should be the minimum threshold for initiation of antiretroviral therapy, and should help to guide physicians and patients in deciding when to start treatment.