Staatliche Gründungsfinanzierung: Stand der Forschung und offene Fragen

Der Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über den Stand der Forschung zur staatlichen Gründungsfinanzierung, speziell in Deutschland. Dabei steht die Frage im Vordergrund, ob eine öffentliche Gründungsfinanzierung aus wirtschaftspolitischer Sicht zu rechtfertigen ist. Konkret werden vier Forschungsfragen untersucht. Die erste Frage lautet, ob Unternehmensgründungen für eine Wirtschaft überhaupt Nutzen stiften. Die zweite Frage lautet, ob auf dem Markt der Finanzierung von Gründungsunternehmen Unvollkommenheiten bzw. Marktversagen feststellbar sind. Die dritte Frage lautet, ob staatliche Maßnahmen der Gründungsfinanzierung einzelwirtschaftlich effektiv sind, dass sich also geförderte Unternehmen als erfolgreicher erweisen als nicht geförderte. Die vierte Frage lautet, ob eine staatliche Gründungsfinanzierung die angestrebten wirtschaftspolitischen Ziele zu den niedrigstmöglichen Kosten erreicht, also effizient ist. Die Antworten sind durchweg negativ und zeigen, dass die bisherige Forschung keine ausreichende Rechtfertigung für eine staatliche Gründungsfinanzierung bieten kann.

Prognosis of patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a collaborative analysis of scale-up programmes

Background Prognostic models have been developed for patients infected with HIV-1 who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed two prognostic models to estimate the probability of death in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods We analysed data for adult patients who started ART in four scale-up programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Malawi from 2004 to 2007. Patients lost to follow-up in the first year were excluded. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4 cell count, clinical stage, bodyweight, age, and sex (CD4 count model); and one that replaced CD4 cell count with total lymphocyte count and severity of anaemia (total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model), because CD4 cell count is not routinely measured in many African ART programmes. Death from all causes in the first year of ART was the primary outcome. Findings 912 (8·2%) of 11 153 patients died in the first year of ART. 822 patients were lost to follow-up and not included in the main analysis; 10 331 patients were analysed. Mortality was strongly associated with high baseline CD4 cell count (≥200 cells per μL vs <25; adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17–0·27), WHO clinical stage (stages III–IV vs I–II; 3·45, 2·43–4·90), bodyweight (≥60 kg vs <45 kg; 0·23, 0·18–0·30), and anaemia status (none vs severe: 0·27, 0·20–0·36). Other independent risk factors for mortality were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age, and male sex. Probability of death at 1 year ranged from 0·9% (95% CI 0·6–1·4) to 52·5% (43·8–61·7) with the CD4 model, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·4) to 59·6% (48·2–71·4) with the total lymphocyte and haemoglobin model. Both models accurately predict early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa compared with observed data. Interpretation Prognostic models should be used to counsel patients, plan health services, and predict outcomes for patients with HIV-1 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Sendai virus RNA polymerase scanning for mRNA start sites at gene junctions

Mini-genomes expressing two reporter genes and a variable gene junction were used to study Sendai virus RNA polymerase (RdRp) scanning for the mRNA start signal of the downstream gene (gs2). We found that RdRp could scan the template efficiently as long as the initiating uridylate of gs2 (3' UCCCnnUUUC) was preceded by the conserved intergenic region (3' GAA) and the last 3 uridylates of the upstream gene end signal (ge1; 3' AUUCUUUUU). The end of the leader sequence (3' CUAAAA, which precedes gs1) could also be used for gene2 expression, but this sequence was considerably less efficient. Increasing the distance between ge1 and gs2 (up to 200 nt) led to the progressive loss of gene2 expression, in which half of gene2 expression was lost for each 70 nucleotides of intervening sequence. Beyond 200 nt, gene2 expression was lost more slowly. Our results suggest that there may be two populations of RdRp that scan at gene junctions, which can be distinguished by the efficiency with which they can scan the genome template for gs.

Catch-up growth in autosomal dominant isolated growth hormone deficiency (IGHD type II)

OBJECTIVE: Data on the GH-induced catch-up growth of severely GH-deficient children affected by monogenetic defects are missing. PATIENTS: Catch-up growth of 21 prepubertal children (6 females, 15 males) affected with IGHD type II was analyzed in a retrospective chart review. At start of therapy, mean age was 6.2 years (range, 1.6-15.0), mean height SDS was -4.7 (-7.6 to -2.2), mean IGF-I SDS was -6.2 (-10.1 to -2.2). GH was substituted using a mean dose of 30.5microg/kg*d. RESULTS: Catch-up growth was characterized by a mean height gain of +0.92, +0.82, and +0.61 SDS after 1, 2, and 3 years of GH therapy, respectively. Mean height velocities were 10.7, 9.2 and 7.7cm/year during the first three years. Mean duration of complete catch-up growth was 6 years (3-9). Mean height SDS reached was -0.97 (-2.3 to +1.1), which was within the range of the estimated target height of -0.60 SDS (-1.20 to -0.15). The younger and shorter the children were at start of therapy the better they grew during the first year independent of the dose. Mean bone age was delayed at start by 2.1 years and progressed by 2.5 years during the first two years of therapy. Incomplete catch-up growth was caused by late initiation or irregular administration of GH in four cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that GH-treated children with severe IGHD show a sustained catch-up growth over 6 years (mean) and reach their target height range. This response to GH is considered to be characteristic for young children with severe growth retardation due to IGHD.

CD4+ T-cell count increase in HIV-1-infected patients with suppressed viral load within 1 year after start of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: CD4+ T-cell recovery in patients with continuous suppression of plasma HIV-1 viral load (VL) is highly variable. This study aimed to identify predictive factors for long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in treatment-naive patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: Treatment-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study reaching two VL measurements <50 copies/ml >3 months apart during the 1st year of cART were included (n=1816 patients). We studied CD4+ T-cell dynamics until the end of suppression or up to 5 years, subdivided into three periods: 1st year, years 2-3 and years 4-5 of suppression. Multiple median regression adjusted for repeated CD4+ T-cell measurements was used to study the dependence of CD4+ T-cell slopes on clinical covariates and drug classes. RESULTS: Median CD4+ T-cell increases following VL suppression were 87, 52 and 19 cells/microl per year in the three periods. In the multiple regression model, median CD4+ T-cell increases over all three periods were significantly higher for female gender, lower age, higher VL at cART start, CD4+ T-cell <650 cells/microl at start of the period and low CD4+ T-cell increase in the previous period. Patients on tenofovir showed significantly lower CD4+ T-cell increases compared with stavudine. CONCLUSIONS: In our observational study, long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in drug-naive patients with suppressed VL was higher in regimens without tenofovir. The clinical relevance of these findings must be confirmed in, ideally, clinical trials or large, collaborative cohort projects but could influence treatment of older patients and those starting cART at low CD4+ T-cell levels.

Retention in care of HIV-infected children from HIV test to start of antiretroviral therapy: systematic review

BACKGROUND In adults it is well documented that there are substantial losses to the programme between HIV testing and start of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The magnitude and reasons for loss to follow-up and death between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in children are not well defined. METHODS We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies on children followed between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in low-income settings. We examined the proportion of children with a CD4 cell count/percentage after after being diagnosed with HIV infection, the number of treatment-eligible children starting ART and predictors of loss to programme. Data were extracted in duplicate. RESULTS Eight studies from sub-Saharan Africa and two studies from Asia with a total of 10,741 children were included. Median age ranged from 2.2 to 6.5 years. Between 78.0 and 97.0% of HIV-infected children subsequently had a CD4 cell count/percentage measured, 63.2 to 90.7% of children with an eligibility assessment met the eligibility criteria for the particular setting and time and 39.5 to 99.4% of the eligible children started ART. Three studies reported an association between low CD4 count/percentage and ART initiation while no association was reported for gender. Only two studies reported on pre-ART mortality and found rates of 13 and 6 per 100 person-years. CONCLUSION Most children who presented for HIV care met eligibility criteria for ART. There is an urgent need for strategies to improve the access to and retention to care of HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings.

When to start antiretroviral therapy in children aged 2-5 years: a collaborative causal modelling analysis of cohort studies from southern Africa

BACKGROUND There is limited evidence on the optimal timing of antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in children 2-5 y of age. We conducted a causal modelling analysis using the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS-Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaborative dataset to determine the difference in mortality when starting ART in children aged 2-5 y immediately (irrespective of CD4 criteria), as recommended in the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 guidelines, compared to deferring to lower CD4 thresholds, for example, the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4 percentage (CD4%) <25%. METHODS AND FINDINGS ART-naïve children enrolling in HIV care at IeDEA-SA sites who were between 24 and 59 mo of age at first visit and with ≥1 visit prior to ART initiation and ≥1 follow-up visit were included. We estimated mortality for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds for up to 3 y using g-computation, adjusting for measured time-dependent confounding of CD4 percent, CD4 count, and weight-for-age z-score. Confidence intervals were constructed using bootstrapping. The median (first; third quartile) age at first visit of 2,934 children (51% male) included in the analysis was 3.3 y (2.6; 4.1), with a median (first; third quartile) CD4 count of 592 cells/mm(3) (356; 895) and median (first; third quartile) CD4% of 16% (10%; 23%). The estimated cumulative mortality after 3 y for ART initiation at different CD4 thresholds ranged from 3.4% (95% CI: 2.1-6.5) (no ART) to 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) (ART irrespective of CD4 value). Estimated mortality was overall higher when initiating ART at lower CD4 values or not at all. There was no mortality difference between starting ART immediately, irrespective of CD4 value, and ART initiation at the WHO 2010 recommended threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, with mortality estimates of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.3%-3.5%) and 2.2% (95% CI: 1.4%-3.5%) after 3 y, respectively. The analysis was limited by loss to follow-up and the unavailability of WHO staging data. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate no mortality difference for up to 3 y between ART initiation irrespective of CD4 value and ART initiation at a threshold of CD4 count <750 cells/mm(3) or CD4% <25%, but there are overall higher point estimates for mortality when ART is initiated at lower CD4 values. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Venepuncture during head-up tilt testing in patients with suspected vasovagal syncope - implications for the test protocol.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Head-up tilt (HUT) testing is a widely used diagnostic tool in patients with suspected vasovagal syncope (VVS). However, no gold standard exists for this examination and the various protocols used have a limited sensitivity and specificity. Our aim was to determine the sensitivity of a sequential HUT testing protocol including venepuncture (VP) and sublingual nitroglycerin application. METHODS This was a retrospective analysis of the diagnostic gain of a sequential HUT testing protocol including VP applied 10 min after the start of HUT testing and sublingual application of nitroglycerin 20 min after the start of the test protocol in 106 patients with a final diagnosis of VVS. The sensitivity of the test protocol was compared between patients with positive and negative history for VP induced VVS. RESULTS Overall, pre-syncope or syncope occurred in 68 patients (64.2%). Only 17% of all patients fainted spontaneously within 10 min of passive HUT. Another 39.6% fainted within 20 min. Application of nitroglycerin after 20 min of HUT evoked syncope in another 7.5% until the end of 45 min of HUT. The sensitivity of the test protocol for evoking (pre-)syncope was 94.4% in patients with a positive history for VP associated VVS and 58% in patients with a negative history (P < 0.01**); 85.7% of patients with a positive history and 42.9% of patients with a negative history fainted within 20 min of HUT testing (P < 0.01**). CONCLUSIONS Implementation of VP in sequential HUT testing protocols allows the sensitivity of HUT testing to be increased, especially in patients with a positive history for VP associated VVS.

The effect of ego depletion on sprint start reaction time

In the current study, we consider that optimal sprint start performance requires the self-control of responses. Therefore, start performance should depend on athletes' self-control strength. We assumed that momentary depletion of self-control strength (ego depletion) would either speed up or slow down the initiation of a sprint start, where an initiation that was sped up would carry the increased risk of a false start. Applying a mixed between- (depletion vs. nondepletion) and within- (before vs. after manipulation of depletion) subjects design, we tested the start reaction times of 37 sport students. We found that participants' start reaction times decelerated after finishing a depleting task, whereas it remained constant in the nondepletion condition. These results indicate that sprint start performance can be impaired by unrelated preceding actions that lower momentary self-control strength. We discuss practical implications in terms of optimizing sprint starts and related overall sprint performance.