Early bursts of body size and shape evolution are rare in comparative data

George Gaylord Simpson famously postulated that much of life's diversity originated as adaptive radiations-more or less simultaneous divergences of numerous lines from a single ancestral adaptive type. However, identifying adaptive radiations has proven difficult due to a lack of broad-scale comparative datasets. Here, we use phylogenetic comparative data on body size and shape in a diversity of animal clades to test a key model of adaptive radiation, in which initially rapid morphological evolution is followed by relative stasis. We compared the fit of this model to both single selective peak and random walk models. We found little support for the early-burst model of adaptive radiation, whereas both other models, particularly that of selective peaks, were commonly supported. In addition, we found that the net rate of morphological evolution varied inversely with clade age. The youngest clades appear to evolve most rapidly because long-term change typically does not attain the amount of divergence predicted from rates measured over short time scales. Across our entire analysis, the dominant pattern was one of constraints shaping evolution continually through time rather than rapid evolution followed by stasis. We suggest that the classical model of adaptive radiation, where morphological evolution is initially rapid and slows through time, may be rare in comparative data.

Associations between fluctuations in lung function and asthma control in two populations with differing asthma severity

Lung function is a major criterion used to assess asthma control. Fluctuation analyses can account for lung function history over time, and may provide an additional dimension to characterise control. The relationships between mean and fluctuations in lung function with asthma control, exacerbation and quality of life were studied in two independent data sets.

Predicting future risk of asthma exacerbations using individual conditional probabilities

Determination of future risk of exacerbations is a key issue in the management of asthma. We previously developed a method to calculate conditional probabilities (π) of future decreases in lung function by using the daily fluctuations in peak expiratory flow (PEF).

General and specific components of depression and anxiety in an adolescent population

Background Depressive and anxiety symptoms often co-occur resulting in a debate about common and distinct features of depression and anxiety. Methods An exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and a bifactor modelling approach were used to separate a general distress continuum from more specific sub-domains of depression and anxiety in an adolescent community sample (n = 1159, age 14). The Mood and Feelings Questionnaire and the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale were used. Results A three-factor confirmatory factor analysis is reported which identified a) mood and social-cognitive symptoms of depression, b) worrying symptoms, and c) somatic and information-processing symptoms as distinct yet closely related constructs. Subsequent bifactor modelling supported a general distress factor which accounted for the communality of the depression and anxiety items. Specific factors for hopelessness-suicidal thoughts and restlessness-fatigue indicated distinct psychopathological constructs which account for unique information over and above the general distress factor. The general distress factor and the hopelessness-suicidal factor were more severe in females but the restlessness-fatigue factor worse in males. Measurement precision of the general distress factor was higher and spanned a wider range of the population than any of the three first-order factors. Conclusions The general distress factor provides the most reliable target for epidemiological analysis but specific factors may help to refine valid phenotype dimensions for aetiological research and assist in prognostic modelling of future psychiatric episodes.

Outcome in adult patients after arterial switch operation for transposition of the great arteries

BACKGROUND: The arterial switch operation (ASO) is currently the treatment of choice in neonates with transposition of the great arteries (TGA). The outcome in childhood is encouraging but only limited data for long-term outcome into adulthood exist. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 145 adult patients (age>16, median 25years) with ASO followed at our institution. Three patients died in adulthood (mortality 2.4/1000-patient-years). Most patients were asymptomatic and had normal left ventricular function. Coronary lesions requiring interventions were rare (3 patients) and in most patients related to previous surgery. There were no acute coronary syndromes. Aortic root dilatation was frequent (56% patients) but rarely significant (>45mm in 3 patients, maximal-diameter 49mm) and appeared not to be progressive. There were no acute aortic events and no patient required elective aortic root surgery. Progressive neo-aortic-valve dysfunction was not observed in our cohort and only 1 patient required neo-aortic-valve replacement. Many patients (42.1%), however, had significant residual lesions or required reintervention in adulthood. Right ventricular outflow tract lesions or dysfunction of the neo-pulmonary-valve were frequent and 8 patients (6%) required neo-pulmonary-valve replacement. Cardiac interventions during childhood (OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.7-5.4, P<0.0001) were strong predictors of outcome (cardiac intervention/significant residual lesion/death) in adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Adult patients with previous ASO remain free of acute coronary or aortic complications and have low mortality. However, a large proportion of patients require re-interventions or present with significant right sided lesions. Life-long cardiac follow-up is, therefore, warranted. Periodic noninvasive surveillance for coronary complications appears to be safe in adult ASO patients.

The WTO and Food Security: What’s Wrong with the Rules?

The WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) is the predominant multilateral legal framework governing agricultural trade. The objective of the AoA is to liberalise trade in agriculture through reductions in tariffs, domestic support and export subsidies. The AoA has not, however, ‘levelled the playing field’ and has not resulted in the equitable distribution of food, particularly for the poorer developing countries. On the other hand, support for small farmers does not ensure food security for the poor. While food security has no simple solutions such as “free trade is good for you”, reform proposals for trade rules which only address agricultural policy instruments fail to account for consumer and other interests: neither tariff reductions and subsidy disciplines, nor safeguards and other measures of producer protection can automatically increase food security. Rather, what is needed is the full and proper implementation of a number of commitments which the international community has already entered into in various human rights treaties, but which even the envisaged results of the now failed Doha Round negotiations could not ensure without revisiting relevant multilateral trade and investment rules.

Delayed HIV diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy: inequalities by educational level, COHERE in EuroCoord.

OBJECTIVES In Europe and elsewhere, health inequalities among HIV-positive individuals are of concern. We investigated late HIV diagnosis and late initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) by educational level, a proxy of socioeconomic position. DESIGN AND METHODS We used data from nine HIV cohorts within COHERE in Austria, France, Greece, Italy, Spain and Switzerland, collecting data on level of education in categories of the UNESCO/International Standard Classification of Education standard classification: non-completed basic, basic, secondary and tertiary education. We included individuals diagnosed with HIV between 1996 and 2011, aged at least 16 years, with known educational level and at least one CD4 cell count within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. We examined trends by education level in presentation with advanced HIV disease (AHD) (CD4 <200 cells/μl or AIDS within 6 months) using logistic regression, and distribution of CD4 cell count at cART initiation overall and among presenters without AHD using median regression. RESULTS Among 15 414 individuals, 52, 45,37, and 31% with uncompleted basic, basic, secondary and tertiary education, respectively, presented with AHD (P trend <0.001). Compared to patients with tertiary education, adjusted odds ratios of AHD were 1.72 (95% confidence interval 1.48-2.00) for uncompleted basic, 1.39 (1.24-1.56) for basic and 1.20 (1.08-1.34) for secondary education (P < 0.001). In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, median CD4 cell count at cART initiation was lower with poorer educational level. CONCLUSIONS Socioeconomic inequalities in delayed HIV diagnosis and initiation of cART are present in European countries with universal healthcare systems and individuals with lower educational level do not equally benefit from timely cART initiation.

Biodiversity and Fishery Sustainability in the Lake Victoria Basin: An Unexpected Marriage?

Lake Victoria is Africa’s single most important source of inland fishery production. After it was initially fished down in the first half of the 20th century, Lake Victoria became home to a series of introduced food fishes, culminating in the eventual demographic dominance of the Nile perch, Lates niloticus. Simultaneously with the changes in fish stocks, Lake Victoria experienced dramatic changes in its ecology. The lake fishery during most of the 20th century was a multispecies fishery resting on a diverse lake ecosystem, in which native food fishes were targeted. The lake ended the century with a much more productive fishery, but one in which three species — two of them introduced — made up the majority of the catch. Although many fish stocks in Lake Victoria had declined before the expansion of the Nile perch population, a dramatic increase in the population size of Nile perch in the 1980s roughly coincided with the drastic decline or disappearance of many indigenous species. Now, two decades after the rise of Nile perch in Lake Victoria, this species has shown signs of being overfished, and some of the native species that were in retreat — or even thought extinct — are now reemerging. Data on the resurgence of the indigenous species suggest that heavy fishing of Nile perch may enhance biodiversity; this has spawned renewed interest in management options that promote both fishery sustainability and biodiversity conservation.

Disease evolution and outcomes in familial AML with germline CEBPA mutations

In-depth molecular investigation of familial leukemia has been limited by the rarity of recognized cases. This study examines the genetic events initiating leukemia and details the clinical progression of disease across multiple families harboring germ-line CEBPA mutations. Clinical data were collected from 10 CEBPA-mutated families, representing 24 members with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Whole-exome (WES) and deep sequencing were performed to genetically profile tumors and define patterns of clonal evolution. Germline CEBPA mutations clustered within the N-terminal and were highly penetrant, with AML presenting at a median age of 24.5 years (range, 1.75-46 years). In all diagnostic tumors tested (n = 18), double CEBPA mutations (CEBPAdm) were detected, with acquired (somatic) mutations preferentially targeting the C-terminal. Somatic CEBPA mutations were unstable throughout the disease course, with different mutations identified at recurrence. Deep sequencing of diagnostic and relapse paired samples confirmed that relapse-associated CEBPA mutations were absent at diagnosis, suggesting recurrence was triggered by novel, independent clones. Integrated WES and deep sequencing subsequently revealed an entirely new complement of mutations at relapse, verifying the presentation of a de novo leukemic episode. The cumulative incidence of relapse in familial AML was 56% at 10 years (n = 11), and 3 patients experienced ≥3 disease episodes over a period of 17 to 20 years. Durable responses to secondary therapies were observed, with prolonged median survival after relapse (8 years) and long-term overall survival (10-year overall survival, 67%). Our data reveal that familial CEBPA-mutated AML exhibits a unique model of disease progression, associated with favorable long-term outcomes.