Evaluation of control and surveillance strategies for classical swine fever using a simulation model

Classical swine fever (CSF) outbreaks can cause enormous losses in naïve pig populations. How to best minimize the economic damage and number of culled animals caused by CSF is therefore an important research area. The baseline CSF control strategy in the European Union and Switzerland consists of culling all animals in infected herds, movement restrictions for animals, material and people within a given distance to the infected herd and epidemiological tracing of transmission contacts. Additional disease control measures such as pre-emptive culling or vaccination have been recommended based on the results from several simulation models; however, these models were parameterized for areas with high animal densities. The objective of this study was to explore whether pre-emptive culling and emergency vaccination should also be recommended in low- to moderate-density areas such as Switzerland. Additionally, we studied the influence of initial outbreak conditions on outbreak severity to improve the efficiency of disease prevention and surveillance. A spatial, stochastic, individual-animal-based simulation model using all registered Swiss pig premises in 2009 (n=9770) was implemented to quantify these relationships. The model simulates within-herd and between-herd transmission (direct and indirect contacts and local area spread). By varying the four parameters (a) control measures, (b) index herd type (breeding, fattening, weaning or mixed herd), (c) detection delay for secondary cases during an outbreak and (d) contact tracing probability, 112 distinct scenarios were simulated. To assess the impact of scenarios on outbreak severity, daily transmission rates were compared between scenarios. Compared with the baseline strategy (stamping out and movement restrictions) vaccination and pre-emptive culling neither reduced outbreak size nor duration. Outbreaks starting in a herd with weaning piglets or fattening pigs caused higher losses regarding to the number of culled premises and were longer lasting than those starting in the two other index herd types. Similarly, larger transmission rates were estimated for these index herd type outbreaks. A longer detection delay resulted in more culled premises and longer duration and better transmission tracing increased the number of short outbreaks. Based on the simulation results, baseline control strategies seem sufficient to control CSF in low-medium animal-dense areas. Early detection of outbreaks is crucial and risk-based surveillance should be focused on weaning piglet and fattening pig premises.

Nighttime vagal cardiac control and plasma fibrinogen levels in a population of working men and women

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma fibrinogen levels have prospectively been associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease in different populations. Plasma fibrinogen is a measure of systemic inflammation crucially involved in atherosclerosis. The vagus nerve curtails inflammation via a cholinergic antiinflammatory pathway. We hypothesized that lower vagal control of the heart relates to higher plasma fibrinogen levels. METHODS: Study participants were 559 employees (age 17-63 years; 89% men) of an airplane manufacturing plant in southern Germany. All subjects underwent medical examination, blood sampling, and 24-hour ambulatory heart rate recording while kept on their work routine. The root mean square of successive differences in RR intervals during the night period (nighttime RMSSD) was computed as the heart rate variability index of vagal function. RESULTS: After controlling for demographic, lifestyle, and medical factors, nighttime RMSSD explained 1.7% (P = 0.001), 0.8% (P = 0.033), and 7.8% (P = 0.007), respectively, of the variance in fibrinogen levels in all subjects, men, and women. Nighttime RMSSD and fibrinogen levels were stronger correlated in women than in men. In all workers, men, and women, respectively, there was a mean +/- SEM increase of 0.41 +/- 0.13 mg/dL, 0.28 +/- 0.13 mg/dL, and 1.16 +/- 0.41 mg/dL fibrinogen for each millisecond decrease in nighttime RMSSD. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced vagal outflow to the heart correlated with elevated plasma fibrinogen levels independent of the established cardiovascular risk factors. This relationship seemed comparably stronger in women than men. Such an autonomic mechanism might contribute to the atherosclerotic process and its thrombotic complications.

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Combined modality treatment improves tumor control and overall survival in patients with early stage Hodgkin's lymphoma: a systematic review

Combined modality treatment (CMT) of chemotherapy followed by localized radiotherapy is standard treatment for patients with early stage Hodgkin's lymphoma. However, the role of radiotherapy has been questioned recently and some clinical study groups advocate chemotherapy only for this indication. We thus performed a systematic review with meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing chemotherapy alone with CMT in patients with early stage Hodgkin's lymphoma with respect to response rate, tumor control and overall survival (OS). We searched Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library as well as conference proceedings from January 1980 to February 2009 for randomized controlled trials comparing chemotherapy alone versus the same chemotherapy regimen plus radiotherapy. Progression free survival and similar outcomes were analyzed together as tumor control. Effect measures used were hazard ratios for OS and tumor control as well as relative risks for complete response (CR). Meta-analyses were performed using RevMan5. Five randomized controlled trials involving 1,245 patients were included. The hazard ratio (HR) was 0.41 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25 to 0.66) for tumor control and 0.40 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.59) for OS for patients receiving CMT compared to chemotherapy alone. CR rates were similar between treatment groups. In sensitivity analyses another 6 trials were included that did not fulfill the inclusion criteria of our protocol but were considered relevant to the topic. These trials underlined the results of the main analysis. In conclusion, adding radiotherapy to chemotherapy improves tumor control and OS in patients with early stage Hodgkin's lymphoma.

Preliminary Experience in Treatment of Papillary and Macular Retinoblastoma: Evaluation of Local Control and Local Complications After Treatment with Linear Accelerator-Based Stereotactic Radiotherapy with Micromultileaf Collimator as Second-Line or Salvage Treatment after chemotherapy

To determine the local control and complication rates for children with papillary and/or macular retinoblastoma progressing after chemotherapy and undergoing stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT) with a micromultileaf collimator.

Variations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in control and transient simulations of the last millennium

The variability of the Atlantic meridional overturing circulation (AMOC) strength is investigated in control experiments and in transient simulations of up to the last millennium using the low-resolution Community Climate System Model version 3. In the transient simulations the AMOC exhibits enhanced low-frequency variability that is mainly caused by infrequent transitions between two semi-stable circulation states which amount to a 10 percent change of the maximum overturning. One transition is also found in a control experiment, but the time-varying external forcing significantly increases the probability of the occurrence of such events though not having a direct, linear impact on the AMOC. The transition from a high to a low AMOC state starts with a reduction of the convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas and goes along with a changed barotropic circulation of both gyres in the North Atlantic and a gradual strengthening of the convection in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. In contrast, the transition from a weak to a strong overturning is induced by decreased mixing in the GIN Seas. As a consequence of the transition, regional sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are found in the midlatitude North Atlantic and in the convection regions with an amplitude of up to 3 K. The atmospheric response to the SST forcing associated with the transition indicates a significant impact on the Scandinavian surface air temperature (SAT) in the order of 1 K. Thus, the changes of the ocean circulation make a major contribution to the Scandinavian SAT variability in the last millennium.

Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND: After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland. RESULTS: In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

Disruption of the histidine triad nucleotide-binding hint2 gene in mice affects glycemic control and mitochondrial function

The histidine triad nucleotide-binding (Hint2) protein is a mitochondrial adenosine phosphoramidase expressed in liver and pancreas. Its physiological function is unknown. To elucidate the role of Hint2 in liver physiology, the Hint2 gene was deleted. Hint2(-/-) and Hint2(+/+) mice were generated in a mixed C57Bl6/J x 129Sv background. At 20 weeks, the phenotypic changes in Hint2(-/-) relative to Hint2(+/+) mice were an accumulation of hepatic triglycerides, decreased tolerance to glucose, a defective counter-regulatory response to insulin-provoked hypoglycaemia, an increase in plasma interprandial insulin but a decrease in glucose stimulated insulin secretion and defective thermoregulation upon fasting. Leptin mRNA in adipose tissue and plasma leptin were elevated. In mitochondria from Hint2(-/-) hepatocytes, state 3 respiration was decreased, a finding confirmed in HepG2 cells where HINT2 mRNA was silenced. The linked complex II to III electron transfer was decreased in Hint2(-/-) mitochondria, which was accompanied by a lower content of coenzyme Q. HIF-2α expression and the generation of reactive oxygen species were increased. Electron microscopy of mitochondria in Hint2(-/-) mice aged 12 months revealed clustered, fused organelles. The hepatic activities of 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase short chain and glutamate dehydrogenase (GDH) were decreased by 68% and 60%, respectively, without a change in protein expression. GDH activity was similarly decreased in HINT2-silenced HepG2 cells. When measured in the presence of purified sirtuin 3, latent GDH activity was recovered (126% in Hint2(-/-) vs. 83% in Hint2(+/+) ). This suggests a greater extent of acetylation in Hint2(-/-) than in Hint2(+/+) . Conlusions: Hint2 positively regulates mitochondrial lipid metabolism and respiration, and glucose homeostasis. The absence of Hint2 provokes mitochondrial deformities and a change in the pattern of acetylation of selected proteins. (HEPATOLOGY 2012.).

Three-dimensional printing of models for preoperative planning and simulation of transcatheter valve replacement

In this study, we show the use of three-dimensional printing models for preoperative planning of transcatheter valve replacement in a patient with an extreme porcelain aorta. A 70-year-old man with severe aortic stenosis and a porcelain aorta was referred to our center for transcatheter aortic valve replacement. Unfortunately, the patient died after the procedure because of a potential ischemic event. Therefore, we decided to fabricate three-dimensional models to evaluate the potential effects of these constructs for previous surgical planning and simulation of the transcatheter valve replacement.