Ocean (De)oxygenation Across the Last Deglaciation: Insights for the Future

Anthropogenic warming is expected to drive oxygen out of the ocean as the water temperature rises and the rate of exchange between subsurface waters and the atmosphere slows due to enhanced upper ocean density stratification. Observations from recent decades are tantalizingly consistent with this prediction, though these changes remain subtle in the face of natural variability. Earth system model projections unanimously predict a long-term decrease in the global ocean oxygen inventory, but show regional discrepancies, particularly in the most oxygen-depleted waters, owing to the complex interplay between oxygen supply pathways and oxygen consumption. The geological record provides an orthogonal perspective, showing how the oceanic oxygen content varied in response to prior episodes of climate change. These past changes were much slower than the current, anthropogenic change, but can help to appraise sensitivities, and point toward potentially dominant mechanisms of change. Consistent with the model projections, marine sediments recorded an overall expansion of low-oxygen waters in the upper ocean as it warmed at the end of the last ice age. This expansion was not linearly related with temperature, though, but reached a deoxygenation extreme midway through the warming. Meanwhile, the deep ocean became better oxygenated, opposite the general expectation. These observations require that significant changes in apparent oxygen utilization occurred, suggesting that they will also be important in the future.

Incidence of second malignancies for prostate cancer

INTRODUCTION There is a need to assess risk of second primary cancers in prostate cancer (PCa) patients, especially since PCa treatment may be associated with increased risk of second primary tumours. METHODS We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for second primary tumours comparing men diagnosed with PCa between 1980 and 2010 in the Canton of Zurich, Switzerland (n = 20,559), and the general male population in the Canton. RESULTS A total of 1,718 men developed a second primary tumour after PCa diagnosis, with lung and colon cancer being the most common (15 and 13% respectively). The SIR for overall second primary cancer was 1.11 (95%CI: 1.06-1.17). Site-specific SIRs varied from 1.19 (1.05-1.34) to 2.89 (2.62-4.77) for lung and thyroid cancer, respectively. When stratified by treatment, the highest SIR was observed for thyroid cancer (3.57 (1.30-7.76)) when undergoing surgery, whereas liver cancer was common when treated with radiotherapy (3.21 (1.54-5.90)) and kidney bladder was most prevalent for those on hormonal treatment (3.15 (1.93-4.87)). Stratification by time since PCa diagnosis showed a lower risk of cancer for men with PCa compared to the general population for the first four years, but then a steep increase in risk was observed. CONCLUSION In the Canton of Zurich, there was an increased risk of second primary cancers among men with PCa compared to the general population. Increased diagnostic activity after PCa diagnosis may partly explain increased risks within the first years of diagnosis, but time-stratified analyses indicated that increased risks remained and even increased over time.

Stable Isotope and Trace Element Studies on Gladiators and Contemporary Romans from Ephesus (Turkey, 2nd and 3rd Ct. AD) - Implications for Differences in Diet

The gladiator cemetery discovered in Ephesus (Turkey) in 1993 dates to the 2nd and 3rd century AD. The aim of this study is to reconstruct diverse diet, social stratification, and migration of the inhabitants of Roman Ephesus and the distinct group of gladiators. Stable carbon, nitrogen, and sulphur isotope analysis were applied, and inorganic bone elements (strontium, calcium) were determined. In total, 53 individuals, including 22 gladiators, were analysed. All individuals consumed C3 plants like wheat and barley as staple food. A few individuals show indication of consumption of C4 plants. The δ13C values of one female from the gladiator cemetery and one gladiator differ from all other individuals. Their δ34S values indicate that they probably migrated from another geographical region or consumed different foods. The δ15N values are relatively low in comparison to other sites from Roman times. A probable cause for the depletion of 15N in Ephesus could be the frequent consumption of legumes. The Sr/Ca-ratios of the gladiators were significantly higher than the values of the contemporary Roman inhabitants. Since the Sr/Ca-ratio reflects the main Ca-supplier in the diet, the elevated values of the gladiators might suggest a frequent use of a plant ash beverage, as mentioned in ancient texts.

Prediction and prevention of psychosis: current progress and future tasks

Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required

IL1B and DEFB1 Polymorphisms Increase Susceptibility to Invasive Mold Infection After Solid Organ Transplantation.

BACKGROUND  Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in immune genes have been associated with susceptibility to invasive mold infection (IMI) among hematopoietic stem cell (HSCT) but not solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. METHODS  24 SNPs from systematically selected genes were genotyped among 1101 SOT recipients (715 kidneys, 190 liver, 102 lungs, 79 hearts, 15 other) from the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study. Association between SNPs and the endpoint were assessed by log-rank test and Cox regression models. Cytokine production upon Aspergillus stimulation was measured by ELISA in PBMCs from healthy volunteers and correlated with relevant genotypes. RESULTS  Mold colonization (N=45) and proven/probable IMI (N=26) were associated with polymorphisms in interleukin-1 beta (IL1B, rs16944; log-rank test, recessive mode, colonization P=0.001 and IMI P=0.00005), interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL1RN, rs419598; P=0.01 and P=0.02) and β-defensin-1 (DEFB1, rs1800972; P=0.001 and P=0.0002, respectively). The associations with IL1B and DEFB1 remained significant in a multivariate regression model (IL1B rs16944 P=0.002; DEFB1 rs1800972 P=0.01). Presence of two copies of the rare allele of rs16944 or rs419598 was associated with reduced Aspergillus-induced IL-1β and TNFα secretion by PBMCs. CONCLUSIONS  Functional polymorphisms in IL1B and DEFB1 influence susceptibility to mold infection in SOT recipients. This observation may contribute to individual risk stratification.

Social stratigraphy in Late Iron Age Switzerland: Stable carbon, nitrogen and sulphur isotope analysis of human remains from Münsingen

The Iron Age cemetery of Münsingen in Switzerland with 220 abundantly equipped burials marked a milestone for Iron Age research. The horizontal spread throughout the time of its occupancy laid the foundation for the chronology system of the Late Iron Age. Today, skulls of 77 individuals and some postcranial bones are still preserved. The aim of the study was to obtain information about diet, mobility and social stratification of the individuals. Stable isotope ratios of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur were analysed for 63 individuals. For all of them C3 plants were found to be the staple food. There are significant differences between males and females in δ13C and δ15N values. This points to a gender restriction in the access to animal protein with males probably having more access to meat and dairy products. Differences in δ15N values were also observed for different age classes. δ34S values indicate a terrestrial-based diet with no significant intake of marine or freshwater fish. Seven adults with enriched δ34S values might have immigrated to Münsingen, four of which were found in the oldest part of the cemetery. Furthermore, possible changes of the vegetation are indicated by the more positive stable carbon ratios in the later phases. The results lead to the suggestion that especially males buried with weapons might have played a special role in the Iron Age society.

Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk

This study aims to evaluate the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding −0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environments. We report on major pH reductions over the deep North Atlantic seafloor (depth >500 m) and at important deep-sea features, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100, and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding −0.2 (−0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~8% (3%) of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity, implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation.

Tumour genomic and microenvironmental heterogeneity for integrated prediction of 5-year biochemical recurrence of prostate cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND Clinical prognostic groupings for localised prostate cancers are imprecise, with 30-50% of patients recurring after image-guided radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy. We aimed to test combined genomic and microenvironmental indices in prostate cancer to improve risk stratification and complement clinical prognostic factors. METHODS We used DNA-based indices alone or in combination with intra-prostatic hypoxia measurements to develop four prognostic indices in 126 low-risk to intermediate-risk patients (Toronto cohort) who will receive image-guided radiotherapy. We validated these indices in two independent cohorts of 154 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center cohort [MSKCC] cohort) and 117 (Cambridge cohort) radical prostatectomy specimens from low-risk to high-risk patients. We applied unsupervised and supervised machine learning techniques to the copy-number profiles of 126 pre-image-guided radiotherapy diagnostic biopsies to develop prognostic signatures. Our primary endpoint was the development of a set of prognostic measures capable of stratifying patients for risk of biochemical relapse 5 years after primary treatment. FINDINGS Biochemical relapse was associated with indices of tumour hypoxia, genomic instability, and genomic subtypes based on multivariate analyses. We identified four genomic subtypes for prostate cancer, which had different 5-year biochemical relapse-free survival. Genomic instability is prognostic for relapse in both image-guided radiotherapy (multivariate analysis hazard ratio [HR] 4·5 [95% CI 2·1-9·8]; p=0·00013; area under the receiver operator curve [AUC] 0·70 [95% CI 0·65-0·76]) and radical prostatectomy (4·0 [1·6-9·7]; p=0·0024; AUC 0·57 [0·52-0·61]) patients with prostate cancer, and its effect is magnified by intratumoral hypoxia (3·8 [1·2-12]; p=0·019; AUC 0·67 [0·61-0·73]). A novel 100-loci DNA signature accurately classified treatment outcome in the MSKCC low-risk to intermediate-risk cohort (multivariate analysis HR 6·1 [95% CI 2·0-19]; p=0·0015; AUC 0·74 [95% CI 0·65-0·83]). In the independent MSKCC and Cambridge cohorts, this signature identified low-risk to high-risk patients who were most likely to fail treatment within 18 months (combined cohorts multivariate analysis HR 2·9 [95% CI 1·4-6·0]; p=0·0039; AUC 0·68 [95% CI 0·63-0·73]), and was better at predicting biochemical relapse than 23 previously published RNA signatures. INTERPRETATION This is the first study of cancer outcome to integrate DNA-based and microenvironment-based failure indices to predict patient outcome. Patients exhibiting these aggressive features after biopsy should be entered into treatment intensification trials. FUNDING Movember Foundation, Prostate Cancer Canada, Ontario Institute for Cancer Research, Canadian Institute for Health Research, NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, The University of Cambridge, Cancer Research UK, Cambridge Cancer Charity, Prostate Cancer UK, Hutchison Whampoa Limited, Terry Fox Research Institute, Princess Margaret Cancer Centre Foundation, PMH-Radiation Medicine Program Academic Enrichment Fund, Motorcycle Ride for Dad (Durham), Canadian Cancer Society.

Biological, diagnostic and therapeutic relevance of the MET receptor signaling in head and neck cancer.

Head and neck cancer constitutes the 6th most common malignancy worldwide and affects the crucial anatomical structures and physiological functions of the upper aerodigestive tract. Classical therapeutic strategies such as surgery and radiotherapy carry substantial toxicity and functional impairment. Moreover, the loco-regional control rates as well as overall survival still need to be improved in subgroups of patients. The scatter-factor/hepatocyte growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase MET is an established effector in the promotion, maintenance and progression of malignant transformation in a wide range of human malignancies, and has been gaining considerable interest in head and neck cancer over the last 15 years. Aberrant MET activation due to overexpression, mutations, tumor-stroma paracrine loops, and cooperative/redundant signaling has been shown to play prominent roles in epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition, angiogenesis, and responses to anti-cancer therapeutic modalities. Accumulating preclinical and translational evidence highly supports the increasing interest of MET as a biomarker for lymph node and distant metastases, as well as a potential marker of stratification for responses to ionizing radiation. The relevance of MET as a therapeutic molecular target in head and neck cancer described in preclinical studies remains largely under-evaluated in clinical trials, and therefore inconclusive. Also in the context of anti-cancer targeted therapy, a large body of preclinical data suggests a central role for MET in treatment resistance towards multiple therapeutic modalities in malignancies of the head and neck region. These findings, as well as the potential use of combination therapies including MET inhibitors in these tumors, need to be further explored.

Assessment of low-flow, low-gradient, severe aortic stenosis: an invasive evaluation is required for decision making.

Low-flow, low-gradient severe aortic stenosis (AS) is characterised by a small aortic valve area (AVA) and low mean gradient (MG) secondary to a low cardiac output and may occur in patients with either a preserved or reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Symptomatic patients presenting with low-flow, low-gradient severe AS have a dismal prognosis independent of baseline LVEF if managed conservatively and should therefore undergo aortic valve replacement if feasible. Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) is the first-line investigation for the assessment of AS haemodynamic severity. However, when confronted with guideline-discordant AVA (small) and MG (low) values, there are several reasons other than severe AS combined with a low cardiac output which may lead to such a situation, including erroneous measurements, small body size, inherent inconsistencies in the guidelines' criteria, prolonged ejection time and aortic pseudostenosis. The distinction between these various entities poses a diagnostic challenge. However, it is important to make a distinction because each has very different implications in terms of risk stratification and therapeutic management. In such instances, cardiac catheterisation forms an integral part of the work-up of these patients in order to confirm or refute the echocardiographic findings to guide management decisions appropriately.

Predicting 3-year mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention: updated logistic clinical SYNTAX score based on patient-level data from 7 contemporary stent trials

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to update the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score to predict 3-year survival after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and compare the performance with the SYNTAX score alone. BACKGROUND The SYNTAX score is a well-established angiographic tool to predict long-term outcomes after PCI. The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score, developed by combining clinical variables with the anatomic SYNTAX score, has been shown to perform better than the SYNTAX score alone in predicting 1-year outcomes after PCI. However, the ability of this score to predict long-term survival is unknown. METHODS Patient-level data (N = 6,304, 399 deaths within 3 years) from 7 contemporary PCI trials were analyzed. We revised the overall risk and the predictor effects in the core model (SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction) using Cox regression analysis to predict mortality at 3 years. We also updated the extended model by combining the core model with additional independent predictors of 3-year mortality (i.e., diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, and body mass index). RESULTS The revised Logistic Clinical SYNTAX models showed better discriminative ability than the anatomic SYNTAX score for the prediction of 3-year mortality after PCI (c-index: SYNTAX score, 0.61; core model, 0.71; and extended model, 0.73 in a cross-validation procedure). The extended model in particular performed better in differentiating low- and intermediate-risk groups. CONCLUSIONS Risk scores combining clinical characteristics with the anatomic SYNTAX score substantially better predict 3-year mortality than the SYNTAX score alone and should be used for long-term risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI.