Copeptin as a marker for severity and prognosis of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

Grading of patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is often confounded by seizure, hydrocephalus or sedation and the prediction of prognosis remains difficult. Recently, copeptin has been identified as a serum marker for outcomes in acute ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). We investigated whether copeptin might serve as a marker for severity and prognosis in aSAH.

HIV treatment response and prognosis in Europe and North America in the first decade of highly active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative analysis

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for the treatment of HIV infection was introduced a decade ago. We aimed to examine trends in the characteristics of patients starting HAART in Europe and North America, and their treatment response and short-term prognosis. METHODS: We analysed data from 22,217 treatment-naive HIV-1-infected adults who had started HAART and were followed up in one of 12 cohort studies. The probability of reaching 500 or less HIV-1 RNA copies per mL by 6 months, and the change in CD4 cell counts, were analysed for patients starting HAART in 1995-96, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, and 2002-03. The primary endpoints were the hazard ratios for AIDS and for death from all causes in the first year of HAART, which were estimated using Cox regression. RESULTS: The proportion of heterosexually infected patients increased from 20% in 1995-96 to 47% in 2002-03, and the proportion of women from 16% to 32%. The median CD4 cell count when starting HAART increased from 170 cells per muL in 1995-96 to 269 cells per muL in 1998 but then decreased to around 200 cells per muL. In 1995-96, 58% achieved HIV-1 RNA of 500 copies per mL or less by 6 months compared with 83% in 2002-03. Compared with 1998, adjusted hazard ratios for AIDS were 1.07 (95% CI 0.84-1.36) in 1995-96 and 1.35 (1.06-1.71) in 2002-03. Corresponding figures for death were 0.87 (0.56-1.36) and 0.96 (0.61-1.51). INTERPRETATION: Virological response after starting HAART improved over calendar years, but such improvement has not translated into a decrease in mortality.

Prognosis of HIV-1-infected patients up to 5 years after initiation of HAART: collaborative analysis of prospective studies

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prognosis over 5 years of HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive patients starting HAART, taking into account the immunological and virological response to therapy. DESIGN: A collaborative analysis of data from 12 cohorts in Europe and North America on 20,379 adults who started HAART between 1995 and 2003. METHODS: Parametric survival models were used to predict the cumulative incidence at 5 years of a new AIDS-defining event or death, and death alone, first from the start of HAART and second from 6 months after the start of HAART. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. RESULTS: During 61 798 person-years of follow-up, 1005 patients died and an additional 1303 developed AIDS. A total of 10 046 (49%) patients started HAART either with a CD4 cell count of less than 200 cells/microl or with a diagnosis of AIDS. The 5-year risk of AIDS or death (death alone) from the start of HAART ranged from 5.6 to 77% (1.8-65%), depending on age, CD4 cell count, HIV-1-RNA level, clinical stage, and history of injection drug use. From 6 months the corresponding figures were 4.1-99% for AIDS or death and 1.3-96% for death alone. CONCLUSION: On the basis of data collected routinely in HIV care, prognostic models with high discriminatory power over 5 years were developed for patients starting HAART in industrialized countries. A risk calculator that produces estimates for progression rates at years 1 to 5 after starting HAART is available from www.art-cohort-collaboration.org.

Treatment and prognosis of AIDS-related lymphoma in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy: findings from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: To assess the characteristics of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) administered concomitantly with chemotherapy and to establish prognostic determinants of patients with AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. METHODS: The study included 91 patients with AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study enrolled between January 1997 and October 2003, excluding lymphomas of the brain. We extracted AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma- and HIV-specific variables at the time of lymphoma diagnosis as well as treatment changes over time from charts and from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study database. Cox regression analyses were performed to study predictors of overall and progression-free survival. RESULTS: During a median follow up of 1.6 years, 57 patients died or progressed. Thirty-five patients stopped chemotherapy prematurely (before the sixth cycle) usually due to disease progression; these patients had a shorter median survival than those who completed six or more cycles (14 versus 28 months). Interruptions of cART decreased from 35% before chemotherapy to 5% during chemotherapy. Factors associated with overall survival were CD4+ T-cell count (<100 cells/microl) (hazard ratio [HR] 2.95 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.53-5.67], hepatitis C seropositivity (HR 2.39 [95% CI 1.01-5.67]), the international prognostic index score (HR 1.98-3.62 across categories) and Burkitt histological subtypes (HR 2.56 [95% CI 1.13-5.78]). CONCLUSIONS: Interruptions of cART were usually not induced by chemotherapy. The effect of cART interruptions on AIDS-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma prognosis remains unclear, however, hepatitis C seropositivity emerged-as a predictor of death beyond the well-known international prognostic index score and CD4+ T-cell count.

Prognosis in pediatric hematologic malignancies is associated with serum concentration of mannose-binding lectin-associated serine protease-2 (MASP-2)

BACKGROUND: Mannose-binding lectin (MBL) and MBL-associated serine protease-2 (MASP-2) are key components of the lectin pathway of complement activation. Their serum concentrations show a wide interindividual variability. This study investigated whether the concentration of MBL and MASP-2 is associated with prognosis in pediatric patients with cancer. METHODS: In this retrospective multicenter study, MBL and MASP-2 were measured by commercially available ELISA in frozen remnants of serum taken at diagnosis. Associations of overall survival (OS) and event-free survival (EFS) with MBL and MASP-2 were assessed by multivariate Cox regression accounting for prognostically relevant clinical variables. RESULTS: In the 372 patients studied, median serum concentration of MBL was 2,808 microg/L (range, 2-10,060) and 391 microg/L (46-2,771) for MASP-2. The estimated 4-year EFS was 0.60 (OS, 0.78). In the entire, heterogeneous sample, MBL and MASP-2 were not significantly associated with OS or EFS. In patients with hematologic malignancies, however, higher MASP-2 was associated with better EFS in a significant and clinically relevant way (hazard ratio per tenfold increase (HR), 0.22; 95% CI, 0.09-0.54; P = 0.001). This was due to patients with lymphoma (HR, 0.11; 95% CI, 0.03-0.47; P = 0.003), but less for those with acute leukemia (HR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.11-1.15; P = 0.083). CONCLUSION: In this study, higher MASP-2 was associated with better EFS in pediatric patients with hematologic malignancies, especially lymphoma. Whether MASP-2 is an independent prognostic factor affecting risk stratification and anticancer therapy needs to be assessed in prospective, disease-specific studies.

Immunological microenvironment in prostate cancer: high mast cell densities are associated with favorable tumor characteristics and good prognosis

BACKGROUND: Number of intratumoral mast cells predicts survival in various cancers. The prognostic significance of such mast cells in surgically treated prostate cancer is unknown. METHODS: Mast cell densities were determined in prostate cancer samples of more than 2,300 hormone-naïve patients using a tissue microarray format in correlation with clinical follow-up data. Mast cells were visualized immunohistochemically (c-kit). All patients were homogeneously treated by radical prostatectomy at a single institution. RESULTS: Mast cells were present in 95.9% of the tumor samples. Median mast cell number on the tissue spot was 9 (range: 0-90; median density: 31 mast cells/mm(2)). High mast cell densities were significantly associated with more favorable tumors having lower preoperative prostate-specific antigen (P = 0.0021), Gleason score (P < 0.0001) and tumor stage (P < 0.0001) than tumors with low mast cell densities. Prostate-specific antigen recurrence-free survival significantly (P = 0.0001) decreased with decline of mast cell density showing poorest outcome for patients without intratumoral mast cells. In multivariate analysis mast cell density narrowly missed to add independent prognostic information (P = 0.0815) for prostate-specific antigen recurrence. CONCLUSION: High intratumoral mast cell density is associated with favorable tumor characteristics and good prognosis in prostate cancer. This finding is consistent with a role of mast cells in the immunological host-defense reaction on prostate cancer. Triggering mast cell activity might expand immunotherapeutic strategies in prostate cancer.

Prognosis of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma in patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE: We examined survival and prognostic factors of patients who developed HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN AND SETTING: Multicohort collaboration of 33 European cohorts. METHODS: We included all cART-naive patients enrolled in cohorts participating in the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) who were aged 16 years or older, started cART at some point after 1 January 1998 and developed NHL after 1 January 1998. Patients had to have a CD4 cell count after 1 January 1998 and one at diagnosis of the NHL. Survival and prognostic factors were estimated using Weibull models, with random effects accounting for heterogeneity between cohorts. RESULTS: Of 67 659 patients who were followed up during 304 940 person-years, 1176 patients were diagnosed with NHL. Eight hundred and forty-seven patients (72%) from 22 cohorts met inclusion criteria. Survival at 1 year was 66% [95% confidence interval (CI) 63-70%] for systemic NHL (n = 763) and 54% (95% CI: 43-65%) for primary brain lymphoma (n = 84). Risk factors for death included low nadir CD4 cell counts and a history of injection drug use. Patients developing NHL on cART had an increased risk of death compared with patients who were cART naive at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: In the era of cART two-thirds of patients diagnosed with HIV-related systemic NHL survive for longer than 1 year after diagnosis. Survival is poorer in patients diagnosed with primary brain lymphoma. More advanced immunodeficiency is the dominant prognostic factor for mortality in patients with HIV-related NHL.

Activation of the unfolded protein response is associated with favorable prognosis in acute myeloid leukemia

PURPOSE: The unfolded protein response is triggered by the accumulation of misfolded proteins within the endoplasmic reticulum. Previous studies suggest that the unfolded protein response is activated in some cancer cell lines and involved in tumor development. The role of the unfolded protein response during leukemogenesis is unknown thus far. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Here, we assessed the induction of key effectors of the unfolded protein response in leukemic cells at diagnosis of 105 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients comprising all subtypes. We determined the formation of the spliced variant of the X-box-binding protein 1 (XBP1) mRNA, as well as expression levels of calreticulin, GRP78, and CHOP mRNA. RESULTS: The formation of the spliced variant of XBP1s was detectable in 16.2% (17 of 105) of AML patients. Consistent with activated unfolded protein response, this group also had significantly increased expression of calreticulin, GRP78, and CHOP. AML patients with activated unfolded protein response had lower WBC counts, lactate dehydrogenase levels, and more frequently, secondary AML. The incidence of fms-related tyrosine kinase 3 (FLT3) mutations was significantly lower in patients with activated unfolded protein response. In addition, an association was observed between activated unfolded protein response and deletion of chromosome 7. Finally, the clinical course of AML patients with activated unfolded protein response was more favorable with lower relapse rate (P = 0.0182) and better overall (P = 0.041) and disease-free survival (P = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the unfolded protein response is activated in a considerable subset of AML patients. AML patients with activated unfolded protein response present specific clinical characteristics and a more favorable course of the disease.

Heterogeneity within AML with CEBPA mutations; only CEBPA double mutations, but not single CEBPA mutations are associated with favourable prognosis

CCAAT/enhancer binding protein alpha (CEBPA) mutations in AML are associated with favourable prognosis and are divided into N- and C-terminal mutations. The majority of AML patients have both types of mutations. We assessed the prognostic significance of single (n=7) and double (n=12) CEBPA mutations among 224 AML patients. Double CEBPA mutations conferred a decisively favourable overall (P=0.006) and disease-free survival (P=0.013). However, clinical outcome of patients with single CEBPA mutations was not different from CEBPA wild-type patients. In a multivariable analysis, only double -- but not single -- CEBPA mutations were identified as independent prognostic factors. These findings indicate heterogeneity within AML patients with CEBPA mutations.

Prognosis of patients treated with cART from 36 months after initiation, according to current and previous CD4 cell count and plasma HIV-1 RNA measurements

OBJECTIVES: CD4 cell count and plasma viral load are well known predictors of AIDS and mortality in HIV-1-infected patients treated with combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). This study investigated, in patients treated for at least 3 years, the respective prognostic importance of values measured at cART initiation, and 6 and 36 months later, for AIDS and death. METHODS: Patients from 15 HIV cohorts included in the ART Cohort Collaboration, aged at least 16 years, antiretroviral-naive when they started cART and followed for at least 36 months after start of cART were eligible. RESULTS: Among 14 208 patients, the median CD4 cell counts at 0, 6 and 36 months were 210, 320 and 450 cells/microl, respectively, and 78% of patients achieved viral load less than 500 copies/ml at 6 months. In models adjusted for characteristics at cART initiation and for values at all time points, values at 36 months were the strongest predictors of subsequent rates of AIDS and death. Although CD4 cell count and viral load at cART initiation were no longer prognostic of AIDS or of death after 36 months, viral load at 6 months and change in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months were prognostic for rates of AIDS from 36 months. CONCLUSIONS: Although current values of CD4 cell count and HIV-1 RNA are the most important prognostic factors for subsequent AIDS and death rates in HIV-1-infected patients treated with cART, changes in CD4 cell count from 6 to 36 months and the value of 6-month HIV-1 RNA are also prognostic for AIDS.

Prognosis of Children with HIV-1 Infection Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Collaborative Analysis of Treatment Programs

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models for children starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa are lacking. We developed models to estimate the probability of death during the first year receiving ART in Southern Africa. METHODS: We analyzed data from children ≤10 years old who started ART in Malawi, South Africa, Zambia or Zimbabwe from 2004-2010. Children lost to follow-up or transferred were excluded. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality in the first year of ART. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one with CD4%, age, WHO clinical stage, weight-for-age z-score (WAZ) and anemia and one without CD4%, because it is not routinely measured in many programs. We used multiple imputation to account for missing data. RESULTS: Among 12655 children, 877 (6.9%) died in the first year of ART. 1780 children were lost to follow-up/transferred and excluded from main analyses; 10875 children were included. With the CD4% model probability of death at 1 year ranged from 1.8% (95% CI: 1.5-2.3) in children 5-10 years with CD4% ≥10%, WHO stage I/II, WAZ ≥-2 and without severe anemia to 46.3% (95% CI: 38.2-55.2) in children <1 year with CD4% <5%, stage III/IV, WAZ< -3 and severe anemia. The corresponding range for the model without CD4% was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.8-2.7) to 33.4% (95% CI: 28.2-39.3). Agreement between predicted and observed mortality was good (C-statistics=0.753 and 0.745 for models with and without CD4% respectively). CONCLUSION: These models may be useful to counsel children/caregivers, for program planning and to assess program outcomes after allowing for differences in patient disease severity characteristics.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation and bleeding: incidence, predictors and prognosis

Peri-procedural bleeding complications are feared adverse events in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). Little is known about the implications of peri-procedural bleeding on clinical outcome. In a prospective single-center registry of consecutive patients undergoing TAVI, we investigated incidence, predictors and clinical consequences of life-threatening and major bleeding as defined by the Valve Academic Research Consortium. Among 389 consecutive patients undergoing TAVI by a transfemoral (79.2%), transapical (19.6%) or trans-subclavian (1.3%) approach between July 2007 and October 2011, life-threatening or major peri-procedural bleeding events occurred in 64 (16.4%) and 125 patients (32.1%), respectively. Patients with peri-procedural bleeding events had a higher logistic EuroSCORE, more advanced renal disease, and were more symptomatic as assessed by New York Heart Association functional class at baseline as compared to patients with no bleeding. Life-threatening bleeding was associated with a higher all-cause (17.2 vs. 5.6 vs. 3.0%, p < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (10.9 vs. 5.6 vs. 2.5%, p = 0.02) at 30 days compared to patients with major bleeding or no bleeding. Multivariate analysis identified transapical access (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.8; p = 0.002), glomerular filtration rate <30 ml/min (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.1-4.7, p = 0.031), and diabetes (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.001-3.2, p = 0.049) as independent predictors of life-threatening, peri-procedural bleeding. Life-threatening bleeding complications in patients undergoing TAVI are associated with increased mortality. Renal impairment, diabetes, and transapical approach were identified as independent risk factors for life-threatening bleeding events.