Antiepileptic drugs and pregnancy. Population based pharmaco-epidemiological study on prescription patterns, pregnancy outcome and foetal health

Aims of the study: To assess the prevalence of Antiepileptic Drug (AED) exposure in pregnant women with or without epilepsy and the comparative risk of terminations of pregnancy (TOPs), spontaneous abortions, stillbirth, major congenital malformations (MCMs) and foetal growth retardation (FGR) following intrauterine AED exposure in the Emilia Romagna region (RER), Northern Italy (4 million inhabitants). Methods: Data were obtained from official regional registries: Certificate of Delivery Assistance, Hospital Discharge Card, reimbursed prescription databases and Registry of Congenital Malformations. We identified all the deliveries, hospitalized abortions and MCMs occurred between January 2009 and December 2011. Results: We identified 145,243 pregnancies: 111,284 deliveries (112,845 live births and 279 stillbirths), 16408 spontaneous abortions and 17551 TOPs. Six hundred and eleven pregnancies (0.42% 95% Cl: 0.39-0.46) were exposed to AEDs. Twenty-one per cent of pregnancies ended in TOP in the AED group vs 12% in the non-exposed (OR:2.24; CI 1.41-3.56). The rate of spontaneous abortions and stillbirth was comparable in the two groups. Three hundred fifty-three babies (0.31%, 95% CI: 0.28-0.35) were exposed to AEDs during the first trimester. The rate of MCMs was 2.3% in the AED group (2.2% in babies exposed to monotherapy and 3.1% in babies exposed to polytherapy) vs 2.0% in the non-exposed. The risk of FGR was 12.7 % in the exposed group compared to 10% in the non-exposed. Discussion and Conclusion: The prevalence of AED exposure in pregnancy in the RER was 0.42%. The rate of MCMs in children exposed to AEDs in utero was almost superimposable to the one of the non-exposed, however polytherapy carried a slightly increased risk . The rate of TOPs was significantly higher in the exposed women. Further studies are needed to clarify whether this high rate reflects a higher rate of MCMs detected prenatally or other more elusive reasons.

Spectroscopic studies on Cyclodextrin and Metal Organic Framework based potential nanovectors for delivery of Anticancer and Antiviral drugs

The aim of this work is to contribute to the development of new multifunctional nanocarriers for improved encapsulation and delivery of anticancer and antiviral drugs. The work focused on water soluble and biocompatible oligosaccharides, the cyclodextrins (CyDs), and a new family of nanostructured, biodegradable carrier materials made of porous metal-organic frameworks (nanoMOFs). The drugs of choice were the anticancer doxorubicin (DOX), azidothymidine (AZT) and its phosphate derivatives and artemisinin (ART). DOX possesses a pharmacological drawback due to its self-aggregation tendency in water. The non covalent binding of DOX to a series of CyD derivatives, such as g-CyD, an epichlorohydrin crosslinked b-CyD polymer (pb-CyD) and a citric acid crosslinked g-CyD polymer (pg-CyD) was studied by UV visible absorption, circular dichroism and fluorescence. Multivariate global analysis of multiwavelength data from spectroscopic titrations allowed identification and characterization of the stable complexes. pg-CyD proved to be the best carrier showing both high association constants and ability to monomerize DOX. AZT is an important antiretroviral drug. The active form is AZT-triphosphate (AZT-TP), formed in metabolic paths of low efficiency. Direct administration of AZT-TP is limited by its poor stability in biological media. So the development of suitable carriers is highly important. In this context we studied the binding of some phosphorilated derivatives to nanoMOFs by spectroscopic methods. The results obtained with iron(III)-trimesate nanoMOFs allowed to prove that the binding of these drugs mainly occurs by strong iono-covalent bonds to iron(III) centers. On the basis of these and other results obtained in partner laboratories, it was possible to propose this highly versatile and “green” carrier system for delivery of phosphorylated nucleoside analogues. The interaction of DOX with nanoMOFs was also studied. Finally the binding of the antimalarial drug, artemisinin (ART) with two cyclodextrin-based carriers,the pb-CyD and a light responsive bis(b-CyD) host, was also studied.

Tools and methods for the quality assurance of force platforms in human movement analysis

The human movement analysis (HMA) aims to measure the abilities of a subject to stand or to walk. In the field of HMA, tests are daily performed in research laboratories, hospitals and clinics, aiming to diagnose a disease, distinguish between disease entities, monitor the progress of a treatment and predict the outcome of an intervention [Brand and Crowninshield, 1981; Brand, 1987; Baker, 2006]. To achieve these purposes, clinicians and researchers use measurement devices, like force platforms, stereophotogrammetric systems, accelerometers, baropodometric insoles, etc. This thesis focus on the force platform (FP) and in particular on the quality assessment of the FP data. The principal objective of our work was the design and the experimental validation of a portable system for the in situ calibration of FPs. The thesis is structured as follows: Chapter 1. Description of the physical principles used for the functioning of a FP: how these principles are used to create force transducers, such as strain gauges and piezoelectrics transducers. Then, description of the two category of FPs, three- and six-component, the signals acquisition (hardware structure), and the signals calibration. Finally, a brief description of the use of FPs in HMA, for balance or gait analysis. Chapter 2. Description of the inverse dynamics, the most common method used in the field of HMA. This method uses the signals measured by a FP to estimate kinetic quantities, such as joint forces and moments. The measures of these variables can not be taken directly, unless very invasive techniques; consequently these variables can only be estimated using indirect techniques, as the inverse dynamics. Finally, a brief description of the sources of error, present in the gait analysis. Chapter 3. State of the art in the FP calibration. The selected literature is divided in sections, each section describes: systems for the periodic control of the FP accuracy; systems for the error reduction in the FP signals; systems and procedures for the construction of a FP. In particular is detailed described a calibration system designed by our group, based on the theoretical method proposed by ?. This system was the “starting point” for the new system presented in this thesis. Chapter 4. Description of the new system, divided in its parts: 1) the algorithm; 2) the device; and 3) the calibration procedure, for the correct performing of the calibration process. The algorithm characteristics were optimized by a simulation approach, the results are here presented. In addiction, the different versions of the device are described. Chapter 5. Experimental validation of the new system, achieved by testing it on 4 commercial FPs. The effectiveness of the calibration was verified by measuring, before and after calibration, the accuracy of the FPs in measuring the center of pressure of an applied force. The new system can estimate local and global calibration matrices; by local and global calibration matrices, the non–linearity of the FPs was quantified and locally compensated. Further, a non–linear calibration is proposed. This calibration compensates the non– linear effect in the FP functioning, due to the bending of its upper plate. The experimental results are presented. Chapter 6. Influence of the FP calibration on the estimation of kinetic quantities, with the inverse dynamics approach. Chapter 7. The conclusions of this thesis are presented: need of a calibration of FPs and consequential enhancement in the kinetic data quality. Appendix: Calibration of the LC used in the presented system. Different calibration set–up of a 3D force transducer are presented, and is proposed the optimal set–up, with particular attention to the compensation of non–linearities. The optimal set–up is verified by experimental results.

Regulation of SRC-3 localization and dynamics by phosphorylation during ERα-dependent transcriptional activation

Transcription is controlled by promoter-selective transcriptional factors (TFs), which bind to cis-regulatory enhancers elements, termed hormone response elements (HREs), in a specific subset of genes. Regulation by these factors involves either the recruitment of coactivators or corepressors and direct interaction with the basal transcriptional machinery (1). Hormone-activated nuclear receptors (NRs) are well characterized transcriptional factors (2) that bind to the promoters of their target genes and recruit primary and secondary coactivator proteins which possess many enzymatic activities required for gene expression (1,3,4). In the present study, using single-cell high-resolution fluorescent microscopy and high throughput microscopy (HTM) coupled to computational imaging analysis, we investigated transcriptional regulation controlled by the estrogen receptor alpha (ERalpha), in terms of large scale chromatin remodeling and interaction with the associated coactivator SRC-3 (Steroid Receptor Coactivator-3), a member of p160 family (28) primary coactivators. ERalpha is a steroid-dependent transcriptional factor (16) that belongs to the NRs superfamily (2,3) and, in response to the hormone 17-ß estradiol (E2), regulates transcription of distinct target genes involved in development, puberty, and homeostasis (8,16). ERalpha spends most of its lifetime in the nucleus and undergoes a rapid (within minutes) intranuclear redistribution following the addition of either agonist or antagonist (17,18,19). We designed a HeLa cell line (PRL-HeLa), engineered with a chromosomeintegrated reporter gene array (PRL-array) containing multicopy hormone response-binding elements for ERalpha that are derived from the physiological enhancer/promoter region of the prolactin gene. Following GFP-ER transfection of PRL-HeLa cells, we were able to observe in situ ligand dependent (i) recruitment to the array of the receptor and associated coregulators, (ii) chromatin remodeling, and (iii) direct transcriptional readout of the reporter gene. Addition of E2 causes a visible opening (decondensation) of the PRL-array, colocalization of RNA Polymerase II, and transcriptional readout of the reporter gene, detected by mRNA FISH. On the contrary, when cells were treated with an ERalpha antagonist (Tamoxifen or ICI), a dramatic condensation of the PRL-array was observed, displacement of RNA Polymerase II, and complete decreasing in the transcriptional FISH signal. All p160 family coactivators (28) colocalize with ERalpha at the PRL-array. Steroid Receptor Coactivator-3 (SRC-3/AIB1/ACTR/pCIP/RAC3/TRAM1) is a p160 family member and a known oncogenic protein (4,34). SRC-3 is regulated by a variety of posttranslational modifications, including methylation, phosphorylation, acetylation, ubiquitination and sumoylation (4,35). These events have been shown to be important for its interaction with other coactivator proteins and NRs and for its oncogenic potential (37,39). A number of extracellular signaling molecules, like steroid hormones, growth factors and cytokines, induce SRC-3 phosphorylation (40). These actions are mediated by a wide range of kinases, including extracellular-regulated kinase 1 and 2 (ERK1-2), c-Jun N-terminal kinase, p38 MAPK, and IkB kinases (IKKs) (41,42,43). Here, we report SRC-3 to be a nucleocytoplasmic shuttling protein, whose cellular localization is regulated by phosphorylation and interaction with ERalpha. Using a combination of high throughput and fluorescence microscopy, we show that both chemical inhibition (with U0126) and siRNA downregulation of the MAP/ERK1/2 kinase (MEK1/2) pathway induce a cytoplasmic shift in SRC-3 localization, whereas stimulation by EGF signaling enhances its nuclear localization by inducing phosphorylation at T24, S857, and S860, known partecipants in the regulation of SRC-3 activity (39). Accordingly, the cytoplasmic localization of a non-phosphorylatable SRC-3 mutant further supports these results. In the presence of ERalpha, U0126 also dramatically reduces: hormone-dependent colocalization of ERalpha and SRC-3 in the nucleus; formation of ER-SRC-3 coimmunoprecipitation complex in cell lysates; localization of SRC-3 at the ER-targeted prolactin promoter array (PRL-array) and transcriptional activity. Finally, we show that SRC-3 can also function as a cotransporter, facilitating the nuclear-cytoplasmic shuttling of estrogen receptor. While a wealth of studies have revealed the molecular functions of NRs and coregulators, there is a paucity of data on how these functions are spatiotemporally organized in the cellular context. Technically and conceptually, our findings have a new impact upon evaluating gene transcriptional control and mechanisms of action of gene regulators.

Innovative analytical methods for Central Nervous System Drug analysis in biological fluids

During recent years a consistent number of central nervous system (CNS) drugs have been approved and introduced on the market for the treatment of many psychiatric and neurological disorders, including psychosis, depression, Parkinson disease and epilepsy. Despite the great advancements obtained in the treatment of CNS diseases/disorders, partial response to therapy or treatment failure are frequent, at least in part due to poor compliance, but also genetic variability in the metabolism of psychotropic agents or polypharmacy, which may lead to sub-therapeutic or toxic plasma levels of the drugs, and finally inefficacy of the treatment or adverse/toxic effects. With the aim of improving the treatment, reducing toxic/side effects and patient hospitalisation, Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) is certainly useful, allowing for a personalisation of the therapy. Reliable analytical methods are required to determine the plasma levels of psychotropic drugs, which are often present at low concentrations (tens or hundreds of nanograms per millilitre). The present PhD Thesis has focused on the development of analytical methods for the determination of CNS drugs in biological fluids, including antidepressants (sertraline and duloxetine), antipsychotics (aripiprazole), antiepileptics (vigabatrin and topiramate) and antiparkinsons (pramipexole). Innovative methods based on liquid chromatography or capillary electrophoresis coupled to diode-array or laser-induced fluorescence detectors have been developed, together with the suitable sample pre-treatment for interference removal and fluorescent labelling in case of LIF detection. All methods have been validated according to official guidelines and applied to the analysis of real samples obtained from patients, resulting suitable for the TDM of psychotropic drugs.

Development of original analytical methods for the therapeutic drug monitoring of CNS druges: Antipsychotics, Antidepressants and Anxiolytics-hypnotics

Great strides have been made in the last few years in the pharmacological treatment of neuropsychiatric disorders, with the introduction into the therapy of several new and more efficient agents, which have improved the quality of life of many patients. Despite these advances, a large percentage of patients is still considered “non-responder” to the therapy, not drawing any benefits from it. Moreover, these patients have a peculiar therapeutic profile, due to the very frequent application of polypharmacy, attempting to obtain satisfactory remission of the multiple aspects of psychiatric syndromes. Therapy is heavily individualised and switching from one therapeutic agent to another is quite frequent. One of the main problems of this situation is the possibility of unwanted or unexpected pharmacological interactions, which can occur both during polypharmacy and during switching. Simultaneous administration of psychiatric drugs can easily lead to interactions if one of the administered compounds influences the metabolism of the others. Impaired CYP450 function due to inhibition of the enzyme is frequent. Other metabolic pathways, such as glucuronidation, can also be influenced. The Therapeutic Drug Monitoring (TDM) of psychotropic drugs is an important tool for treatment personalisation and optimisation. It deals with the determination of parent drugs and metabolites plasma levels, in order to monitor them over time and to compare these findings with clinical data. This allows establishing chemical-clinical correlations (such as those between administered dose and therapeutic and side effects), which are essential to obtain the maximum therapeutic efficacy, while minimising side and toxic effects. It is evident the importance of developing sensitive and selective analytical methods for the determination of the administered drugs and their main metabolites, in order to obtain reliable data that can correctly support clinical decisions. During the three years of Ph.D. program, some analytical methods based on HPLC have been developed, validated and successfully applied to the TDM of psychiatric patients undergoing treatment with drugs belonging to following classes: antipsychotics, antidepressants and anxiolytic-hypnotics. The biological matrices which have been processed were: blood, plasma, serum, saliva, urine, hair and rat brain. Among antipsychotics, both atypical and classical agents have been considered, such as haloperidol, chlorpromazine, clotiapine, loxapine, risperidone (and 9-hydroxyrisperidone), clozapine (as well as N-desmethylclozapine and clozapine N-oxide) and quetiapine. While the need for an accurate TDM of schizophrenic patients is being increasingly recognized by psychiatrists, only in the last few years the same attention is being paid to the TDM of depressed patients. This is leading to the acknowledgment that depression pharmacotherapy can greatly benefit from the accurate application of TDM. For this reason, the research activity has also been focused on first and second-generation antidepressant agents, like triciclic antidepressants, trazodone and m-chlorophenylpiperazine (m-cpp), paroxetine and its three main metabolites, venlafaxine and its active metabolite, and the most recent antidepressant introduced into the market, duloxetine. Among anxiolytics-hypnotics, benzodiazepines are very often involved in the pharmacotherapy of depression for the relief of anxious components; for this reason, it is useful to monitor these drugs, especially in cases of polypharmacy. The results obtained during these three years of Ph.D. program are reliable and the developed HPLC methods are suitable for the qualitative and quantitative determination of CNS drugs in biological fluids for TDM purposes.

Analytical challenges in the fields of Nanobioscience and Nanobiotecnology: integrated methods for separation and characterization

Nano(bio)science and nano(bio)technology play a growing and tremendous interest both on academic and industrial aspects. They are undergoing rapid developments on many fronts such as genomics, proteomics, system biology, and medical applications. However, the lack of characterization tools for nano(bio)systems is currently considered as a major limiting factor to the final establishment of nano(bio)technologies. Flow Field-Flow Fractionation (FlFFF) is a separation technique that is definitely emerging in the bioanalytical field, and the number of applications on nano(bio)analytes such as high molar-mass proteins and protein complexes, sub-cellular units, viruses, and functionalized nanoparticles is constantly increasing. This can be ascribed to the intrinsic advantages of FlFFF for the separation of nano(bio)analytes. FlFFF is ideally suited to separate particles over a broad size range (1 nm-1 μm) according to their hydrodynamic radius (rh). The fractionation is carried out in an empty channel by a flow stream of a mobile phase of any composition. For these reasons, fractionation is developed without surface interaction of the analyte with packing or gel media, and there is no stationary phase able to induce mechanical or shear stress on nanosized analytes, which are for these reasons kept in their native state. Characterization of nano(bio)analytes is made possible after fractionation by interfacing the FlFFF system with detection techniques for morphological, optical or mass characterization. For instance, FlFFF coupling with multi-angle light scattering (MALS) detection allows for absolute molecular weight and size determination, and mass spectrometry has made FlFFF enter the field of proteomics. Potentialities of FlFFF couplings with multi-detection systems are discussed in the first section of this dissertation. The second and the third sections are dedicated to new methods that have been developed for the analysis and characterization of different samples of interest in the fields of diagnostics, pharmaceutics, and nanomedicine. The second section focuses on biological samples such as protein complexes and protein aggregates. In particular it focuses on FlFFF methods developed to give new insights into: a) chemical composition and morphological features of blood serum lipoprotein classes, b) time-dependent aggregation pattern of the amyloid protein Aβ1-42, and c) aggregation state of antibody therapeutics in their formulation buffers. The third section is dedicated to the analysis and characterization of structured nanoparticles designed for nanomedicine applications. The discussed results indicate that FlFFF with on-line MALS and fluorescence detection (FD) may become the unparallel methodology for the analysis and characterization of new, structured, fluorescent nanomaterials.

Spectroscopic study of Bioceramics for Endodontic and Orthopaedics

This thesis was aimed at investigating the physical-chemical properties and the behaviour in physiological environment of two classes of bioceramics: calcium silicate-based dental cements and alumina-based femoral heads for hip joint prostheses. The material characterization was performed using spectroscopic techniques such as that allow to obtain information on the molecular structure of the species and phases present in the analyzed samples. Raman, infrared and fluorescence spectroscopy was principally used. Calcium silicate cements, such as MTA (Mineral Trioxide Aggregate), are hydraulic materials that can set in presence of water: this characteristic makes them suitable for oral surgery and in particular as root-end filling materials. With the aim to improve the properties of commercial MTA cements, several MTA-based experimental formulations have been tested with regard to bioactivity (i.e. apatite forming ability) upon ageing in simulated body fluids. The formation of a bone-like apatite layer may support the integration in bone tissue and represents an essential requirement for osteoconduction and osteoinduction. The spectroscopic studies demonstrated that the experimental materials under study had a good bioactivity and were able to remineralize demineralized dentin. . Bioceramics thanks to their excellent mechanical properties and chemical resistance, are widely used as alternative to polymer (UHMWPE) and metal alloys (Cr-Co) for hip-joint prostesis. In order to investigate the in vivo wear mechanisms of three different generations of commercial bioceramics femoral heads (Biolox®, Biolox® forte, and Biolox® delta), fluorescence and Raman spectroscopy were used to investigate the surface properties and residual stresses of retrieved implants. Spectroscopic results suggested different wear mechanisms in the three sets of retrievals. Since Biolox® delta is a relatively recent material, the Raman results on its retrievals has been reported for the first time allowing to validate the in vitro ageing protocols proposed in the literature to simulate the effects of the in vivo wear.

Evidence-based polytherapies and long-term mortality after acute myocardial infarction in very old subjects compared with elderly and adults: a nested case-control study

Background: Clinical trials have demonstrated that selected secondary prevention medications for patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) reduce mortality. Yet, these medications are generally underprescribed in daily practice, and older people are often absent from drug trials. Objectives: To examine the relationship between adherence to evidence-based (EB) drugs and post-AMI mortality, focusing on the effects of single therapy and polytherapy in very old patients (≥80 years) compared with elderly and adults (<80 years). Methods: Patients hospitalised for AMI between 01/01/2008 and 30/06/2011 and resident in the Local Health Authority of Bologna were followed up until 31/12/2011. Medication adherence was calculated as the proportion of days covered for filled prescriptions of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), β-blockers, antiplatelet drugs, and statins. We adopted a risk set sampling method, and the adjusted relationship between medication adherence (PDC≥75%) and mortality was investigated using conditional multiple logistic regression. Results: The study population comprised 4861 patients. During a median follow-up of 2.8 years, 1116 deaths (23.0%) were observed. Adherence to the 4 EB drugs was 7.1%, while nonadherence to any of the drugs was 19.7%. For both patients aged ≥80 years and those aged <80 years, rate ratios of death linearly decreased as the number of EB drugs taken increased. There was a significant inverse relationship between adherence to each of 4 medications and mortality, although its magnitude was higher for ACEIs/ARBs (adj. rate ratio=0.60, 95%CI=0.52–0.69) and statins (0.60, 0.50–0.72), and lower for β-blockers (0.75, 0.61–0.92) and antiplatelet drugs (0.73, 0.63–0.84). Conclusions: The beneficial effect of EB polytherapy on long-term mortality following AMI is evident also in nontrial older populations. Given that adherence to combination therapies is largely suboptimal, the implementation of strategies and initiatives to increase the use of post-AMI secondary preventive medications in old patients is crucial.

Activity and mechanisms of action of novel organosulfur derivatives of the HDAC inhibitor Valproic Acid in human experimental models of non-small-cell lung cancer

Non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) represents the leading cause of cancer death worldwide, and 5-year survival is about 16% for patients diagnosed with advanced lung cancer and about 70-90% when the disease is diagnosed and treated at earlier stages. Treatment of NSCLC is changed in the last years with the introduction of targeted agents, such as gefitinib and erlotinib, that have dramatically changed the natural history of NSCLC patients carrying specific mutations in the EGFR gene, or crizotinib, for patients with the EML4-ALK translocation. However, such patients represent only about 15-20% of all NSCLC patients, and for the remaining individuals conventional chemotherapy represents the standard choice yet, but response rate to thise type of treatment is only about 20%. Development of new drugs and new therapeutic approaches are so needed to improve patients outcome. In this project we aimed to analyse the antitumoral activity of two compounds with the ability to inhibit histone deacethylases (ACS 2 and ACS 33), derived from Valproic Acid and conjugated with H2S, in human cancer cell lines derived from NSCLC tissues. We showed that ACS 2 represents the more promising agent. It showed strong antitumoral and pro-apoptotic activities, by inducing membrane depolarization, cytocrome-c release and caspase 3 and 9 activation. It was able to reduce the invasive capacity of cells, through inhibition of metalloproteinases expression, and to induce a reduced chromatin condensation. This last characteristic is probably responsible for the observed high synergistic activity in combination with cisplatin. In conclusion our results highlight the potential role of the ACS 2 compound as new therapeutic option for NSCLC patients, especially in combination with cisplatin. If validated in in vivo models, this compound should be worthy for phase I clinical trials.

An Integrated Transmission-Media Noise Calibration Software For Deep-Space Radio Science Experiments

The thesis describes the implementation of a calibration, format-translation and data conditioning software for radiometric tracking data of deep-space spacecraft. All of the available propagation-media noise rejection techniques available as features in the code are covered in their mathematical formulations, performance and software implementations. Some techniques are retrieved from literature and current state of the art, while other algorithms have been conceived ex novo. All of the three typical deep-space refractive environments (solar plasma, ionosphere, troposphere) are dealt with by employing specific subroutines. Specific attention has been reserved to the GNSS-based tropospheric path delay calibration subroutine, since it is the most bulky module of the software suite, in terms of both the sheer number of lines of code, and development time. The software is currently in its final stage of development and once completed will serve as a pre-processing stage for orbit determination codes. Calibration of transmission-media noise sources in radiometric observables proved to be an essential operation to be performed of radiometric data in order to meet the more and more demanding error budget requirements of modern deep-space missions. A completely autonomous and all-around propagation-media calibration software is a novelty in orbit determination, although standalone codes are currently employed by ESA and NASA. The described S/W is planned to be compatible with the current standards for tropospheric noise calibration used by both these agencies like the AMC, TSAC and ESA IFMS weather data, and it natively works with the Tracking Data Message file format (TDM) adopted by CCSDS as standard aimed to promote and simplify inter-agency collaboration.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.