9 resultados para Area Under Curve

em AMS Tesi di Dottorato - Alm@DL - Università di Bologna


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Leaf rust caused by Puccinia triticina is a serious disease of durum wheat (Triticum durum) worldwide. However, genetic and molecular mapping studies aimed at characterizing leaf rust resistance genes in durum wheat have been only recently undertaken. The Italian durum wheat cv. Creso shows a high level of resistance to P. triticina that has been considered durable and that appears to be due to a combination of a single dominant gene and one or more additional factors conferring partial resistance. In this study, the genetic basis of leaf rust resistance carried by Creso was investigated using 176 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from the cross between the cv. Colosseo (C, leaf rust resistance donor) and Lloyd (L, susceptible parent). Colosseo is a cv. directly related to Creso with the leaf rust resistance phenotype inherited from Creso, and was considered as resistance donor because of its better adaptation to local (Emilia Romagna, Italy) cultivation environment. RILs have been artificially inoculated with a mixture of 16 Italian P. triticina isolates that were characterized for virulence to seedlings of 22 common wheat cv. Thatcher isolines each carrying a different leaf rust resistance gene, and for molecular genotypes at 15 simple sequence repeat (SSR) loci, in order to determine their specialization with regard to the host species. The characterization of the leaf rust isolates was conducted at the Cereal Disease Laboratory of the University of Minnesota (St. Paul, USA) (Chapter 2). A genetic linkage map was constructed using segregation data from the population of 176 RILs from the cross CL. A total of 662 loci, including 162 simple sequence repeats (SSRs) and 500 Diversity Arrays Technology markers (DArTs), were analyzed by means of the package EasyMap 0.1. The integrated SSR-DArT linkage map consisted of 554 loci (162 SSR and 392 DArT markers) grouped into 19 linkage blocks with an average marker density of 5.7 cM/marker. The final map spanned a total of 2022 cM, which correspond to a tetraploid genome (AABB) coverage of ca. 77% (Chapter 3). The RIL population was phenotyped for their resistance to leaf rust under artificial inoculation in 2006; the percentage of infected leaf area (LRS, leaf rust susceptibility) was evaluated at three stages through the disease developmental cycle and the area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) was then calculated. The response at the seedling stage (infection type, IT) was also investigated. QTL analysis was carried out by means of the Composite Interval Mapping method based on a selection of markers from the CL map. A major QTL (QLr.ubo-7B.2) for leaf rust resistance controlling both the seedling and the adult plant response, was mapped on the distal region of chromosome arm 7BL (deletion bin 7BL10-0.78-1.00), in a gene-dense region known to carry several genes/QTLs for resistance to rusts and other major cereal fungal diseases in wheat and barley. QLr.ubo-7B.2 was identified within a supporting interval of ca. 5 cM tightly associated with three SSR markers (Xbarc340.2, Xgwm146 e Xgwm344.2), and showed an R2 and an LOD peak value for the AUDPC equal to 72.9% an 44.5, respectively. Three additional minor QTLs were also detected (QLr.ubo-7B.1 on chr. 7BS; QLr.ubo-2A on chr. 2AL and QLr.ubo-3A on chr. 3AS) (Chapter 4). The presence of the major QTL (QLr.ubo-7B.2) was validated by a linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based test using field data from two different plant materials: i) a set of 62 advanced lines from multiple crosses involving Creso and his directly related resistance derivates Colosseo and Plinio, and ii) a panel of 164 elite durum wheat accessions representative of the major durum breeding program of the Mediterranean basin. Lines and accessions were phenotyped for leaf rust resistance under artificial inoculation in two different field trials carried out at Argelato (BO, Italy) in 2006 and 2007; the durum elite accessions were also evaluated in two additional field experiments in Obregon (Messico; 2007 and 2008) and in a green-house experiment (seedling resistance) at the Cereal Disease Laboratory (St. Paul, USA, 2008). The molecular characterization involved 14 SSR markers mapping on the 7BL chromosome region found to harbour the major QTL. Association analysis was then performed with a mixed-linear-model approach. Results confirmed the presence of a major QTL for leaf rust resistance, both at adult plant and at seedling stage, located between markers Xbarc340.2, Xgwm146 and Xgwm344.2, in an interval that coincides with the supporting interval (LOD-2) of QLr.ubo-7B.2 as resulted from the RIL QTL analysis. (Chapter 5). The identification and mapping of the major QTL associated to the durable leaf rust resistance carried by Creso, together with the identification of the associated SSR markers, will enhance the selection efficiency in durum wheat breeding programs (MAS, Marker Assisted Selection) and will accelerate the release of cvs. with durable resistance through marker-assisted pyramiding of the tagged resistance genes/QTLs most effective against wheat fungal pathogens.

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Aim of the present study was to evaluate the accuracy of transrectal ultrasound biopsy (TRUS-biopsy) directed to regions with abnormal MRI and/or MRSI (magnetic resonance spectroscopic imaging ) for both the transition (TZ) and the peripheral (PZ) zones in patients who presented with persistent suspect for prostate cancer and with prior negative biopsy. We also evaluated relationship between MRSI results and histopathological findings of biopsy. 54 patients with the aforementioned characteristics underwent MRI/MRSI at least 6 months after prior negative biopsy; interval between MRI/3D-MRSI and the further TRUS-biopsy was less than 3 months. The prostate was divided in 12 regions both for imaging interpretation and biopsy. Moreover one to three cores more were taken from each region with abnormal MRI and/or 3D-MRSI. Twenty-two out of 54 patients presented cancer at MRI/MRSI-directed-TRUS-biopsy. On a patient basis the highest accuracy was obtained by assigning malignancy on a positive finding with MRSI and MRI even though it was not significantly greater than that obtained using MRI alone (area under the ROC curve, AUC: 0.723 vs. 0.676). On a region (n=648) basis the best accuracy was also obtained by considering positive both MRSI and MRI for PZ (0.768) and TZ (0.822). Twenty-eight per cent of cores with prostatitis were false positive findings on MRSI, whereas only 2.7% of benign prostatic hyperplasia was false positive. In conclusion the accuracy of MRI/MRSI-directed biopsies in localization of prostate cancer is good in patient and region analyses. The combination of both MRI and MRSI results makes TRUS-biopsy more accurate particularly in the TZ (0.822) for patients with prior negative biopsies. Histopathological analysis showed that the main limitation of MRSI is the percentage of false positive findings due to prostatitis.

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Obiettivi. L’ecografia con mezzo di contrasto (CEUS) può fornire informazioni sulla microvascolarizzazione della parete intestinale nella malattia di Crohn. L’infiammazione della parete intestinale non sembra essere correlata alla quantità di parete vascolarizzata (studi di pattern di vascolarizzazione, SVP) ma all’intensità del flusso di parete in un determinato periodo di tempo (studi di intensità-tempo, SIT). Scopo dello studio è valutare se gli studi SVP e/o SIT mediante CEUS siano in grado di mostrare il reale grado d’infiammazione della parete vascolare e se possano predire l’attività di malattia a 3 mesi. Materiali e metodi: 30 pazienti con malattia di Crohn venivano sottoposti a SVP e SIT mediante CEUS e venivano rivisti dopo 3 mesi. L’eCografia era eseguita con uno strumento dedicato con un software particolare per il calcolo delle curve intensità-tempo e con l’ausilio di un mezzo di contrasto (Sonovue). L’analisi quantitativa consisteva nella misura dell’area sotto la curva (AUC) (con cut-off tra malattia attiva e inattiva di 15) e di un intensità media (IM) con un cut-off di 10. Tutti gli esami venivano registrati e analizzati in modo digitale. Risultati: A T0: CDAI era inferiore a 150 in 22 pazienti e superiore a 150 in 8 pazienti; a T3: CDAI era inferiore a 150 in 19 pazienti e superiore a 150 in 11 pazienti. A T0 sia la CEUS SPV che la SIT evidenziavano bassa specificità, accuratezza diagnostica e valore predittivo negativo; a T3 la CEUS SVP mostrava bassa sensibilità e accuratezza diagnostica rispetto alla SIT che era in grado, in tutti i casi tranne uno, di predire l’attività clinica di malattia a tre mesi. Conclusioni: in questo studio, la CEUS-SIT ha mostrato buona accuratezza diagnostica nel predire l’attività clinica di malattia nel follow-up a breve termine di pazienti con malattia di Crohn.

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La proteinuria è un marker di danno renale nel cane. L’obiettivo dello studio è di valutare la capacità del dipstick urinario e dell’UPC di diagnosticare precocemente l’albuminuria nel cane. Sono stati raccolti 868 campioni di urina, con sedimento spento e assenza di ematuria, nell’Ospedale Didattico Veterinario della Facoltà di Medicina Veterinaria di Bologna. Per 550 campioni è stata effettuata l’analisi delle urine, la misurazione dell’UPC e dell’UAC, mentre UPC e UAC sono stati misurati in tutti gli 868 campioni. I campioni di urina sono stati analizzati con il metodo dipstick mediante lettura automatizzata. Utilizzando come valore di riferimento l’UAC è stata valutata l’accuratezza diagnostica del dipstick urinario e dell’UPC. L’intervallo di riferimento dell’UAC (0-0,024) è stato determinato utilizzando 60 cani sani. I dati raccolti sono stati classificati utilizzando differenti cut-off per il peso specifico urinario (1012 o 1030), per la proteinuria al dipstick (30 o 100 mg/dl), per l’UPC (0,2) e per l’UAC (0,024). Sono stati valutati l’agreement diagnostico e la correlazione di Spearman tra dipstick, UPC e UAC. E’ stata stimata l’accuratezza diagnostica misurando l’area al di sotto della curva di ROC nell’analisi dell’UAC. Il livello di significatività è stato definito per p < 0,05. Indipendentemente dal peso specifico urinario, l’agreement diagnostico tra dipstick, UPC e UAC è risultato forte (k=0,62 e k=0,61, rispettivamente; p<0,001) con valori di dipstick ≥30 mg/dl, debole (k=0,27 e k=0,26, rispettivamente; p<0,001) con valori di dipstick ≥100 mg/dl. L’accuratezza diagnostica del dipstick messa a confronto con UPC e con UAC è molto buona (AUC 0,84 e 0,84, rispettivamente; p<0,001) e i risultati negativi al dipstick presentano il 100% di sensitività. UPC e UAC sono fortemente correlate (r=0,90; p<0,001). Mettendo a confronto UPC e UAC, l’accuratezza diagnostica è risultata eccellente (AUC 0,94; p<0,001), con massima sensitività e specificità per UPC≥0.3.

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This was a retrospective study including ninety samples of dogs with a histological diagnosis of intermediate grade cutaneous mast cell tumour (MCT). The objectives of the study were to validate Minichromosome Maintenance Protein 7 (MCM7) as a prognostic marker in MCTs and to compare the ability of mitotic index (MI), Ki67 and MCM7 to predict outcome. The median survival for the entire population was not reached at 2099 days. The mean survival time was 1708 days. Seventy-two cases were censored after a median follow up of 1136 days and eighteen dogs died for causes related to the MCT after a median of 116 days. For each sample MI, Ki67 and MCM7 were determined. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was obtained for each prognostic marker to evaluate the performance of the test, expressed as area under the curve, and whether the published threshold value was adequate. Kaplan-Meier and corresponding logrank test for MI, Ki67 and MCM7 as binary variables was highly significant (P<0.0001). Multivariable regression analysis of MI, Ki67 and MCM7 corrected for age and surgical margins indicated that the higher risk of dying of MCT was associated with MCM7 > 0.18 (Hazard Ration [HR] 14.7; P<0.001) followed by MI > 5 (HR 13.9; P<0.001) and Ki67 > 0.018 (HR 8.9; P<0.001). Concluding, the present study confirmed that MCM7 is an excellent prognostic marker in cutaneous MCTs being able to divide Patnaik intermediate grade tumours in two categories with different prognosis. Ki67 was equally good confirming its value as a prognostic marker in intermediate grade MCTs. The mitotic index was extremely specific, but lacked of sensitivity. Interestingly, mitotic index, Ki67 and MCM7 were independent from each other suggesting that their combination would improve their individual prognostic value.

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Introduction: Antiviral therapy can prevent disease progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C . Transient Elastografy (TE; Fibroscan) is an accurate surrogate marker to liver fibrosis, by measuring liver stiffness (LS). LS decrease has been associated with sustained virologic response (SVR). Aim: to assess the changes of LS measurments in CHC patients during and one year after Interferon (IFN)-based antiviral therapy (IFN/ribavirin) or (telaprevir+IFN/ribavirin). Methods: consecutive 69 CHC patients (53.6% females, mean age 57.9 ± 11.4) who underwent antiviral therapy for at least 20 weeks were enrolled. LS was measured using FibroScan at baseline, after three months, at the end of treatment and one year after treatment discontinuation. Fibrosis was graded using METAVIR score. Results: twenty patients treated with triple therapy and 49 with IFN/ribavirin. Fifty patients had SVR and 19 were non-responders. SVR patients: F0-F1, F2 and F3 patients (39.1%, 7.2% and 17.4%; respectively) showed no significant LS decrease (P= 0.186, 0.068 and 0.075; respectively). Conversely, in F4 patients (36.2%) LS was significantly decreased (P=0.015) after one year of treatment completion. In all patients with no SVR, no significant decrease in LS was observed. Interestingly, all Patients with F4 fibrosis (even non-responders) showed an initial significant decrease in LS (P=0.024) at 3 months after the start of treatment. However, this decrease was not predictive of SVR; area under the ROC curve 0.369 (CI %: 0.145-0.592) P= 0.265. Conclusion: Our study showed that initial decrease in LSM, especially in patients with higher baseline fibrosis score is unlikely to predict an SVR. In addition no significant association was found between clinical or virological parameters and fibrosis improvement. Further studies are needed to delineate the most appropriate clinical scenarios for the LSM by Fibroscan in chronic hepatitis C and its role in monitoring the response to antiviral treatment.

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In this work a multidisciplinary study of the December 26th, 2004 Sumatra earthquake has been carried out. We have investigated both the effect of the earthquake on the Earth rotation and the stress field variations associated with the seismic event. In the first part of the work we have quantified the effects of a water mass redistribution associated with the propagation of a tsunami wave on the Earth’s pole path and on the length-of-day (LOD) and applied our modeling results to the tsunami following the 2004 giant Sumatra earthquake. We compared the result of our simulations on the instantaneous rotational axis variations with some preliminary instrumental evidences on the pole path perturbation (which has not been confirmed yet) registered just after the occurrence of the earthquake, which showed a step-like discontinuity that cannot be attributed to the effect of a seismic dislocation. Our results show that the perturbation induced by the tsunami on the instantaneous rotational pole is characterized by a step-like discontinuity, which is compatible with the observations but its magnitude turns out to be almost one hundred times smaller than the detected one. The LOD variation induced by the water mass redistribution turns out to be not significant because the total effect is smaller than current measurements uncertainties. In the second part of this work of thesis we modeled the coseismic and postseismic stress evolution following the Sumatra earthquake. By means of a semi-analytical, viscoelastic, spherical model of global postseismic deformation and a numerical finite-element approach, we performed an analysis of the stress diffusion following the earthquake in the near and far field of the mainshock source. We evaluated the stress changes due to the Sumatra earthquake by projecting the Coulomb stress over the sequence of aftershocks taken from various catalogues in a time window spanning about two years and finally analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern. The analysis performed with the semi-analytical and the finite-element modeling gives a complex picture of the stress diffusion, in the area under study, after the Sumatra earthquake. We believe that the results obtained with the analytical method suffer heavily for the restrictions imposed, on the hypocentral depths of the aftershocks, in order to obtain the convergence of the harmonic series of the stress components. On the contrary we imposed no constraints on the numerical method so we expect that the results obtained give a more realistic description of the stress variations pattern.

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The thesis analyses the hydrodynamic induced by an array of Wave energy Converters (WECs), under an experimental and numerical point of view. WECs can be considered an innovative solution able to contribute to the green energy supply and –at the same time– to protect the rear coastal area under marine spatial planning considerations. This research activity essentially rises due to this combined concept. The WEC under exam is a floating device belonging to the Wave Activated Bodies (WAB) class. Experimental data were performed at Aalborg University in different scales and layouts, and the performance of the models was analysed under a variety of irregular wave attacks. The numerical simulations performed with the codes MIKE 21 BW and ANSYS-AQWA. Experimental results were also used to calibrate the numerical parameters and/or to directly been compared to numerical results, in order to extend the experimental database. Results of the research activity are summarized in terms of device performance and guidelines for a future wave farm installation. The device length should be “tuned” based on the local climate conditions. The wave transmission behind the devices is pretty high, suggesting that the tested layout should be considered as a module of a wave farm installation. Indications on the minimum inter-distance among the devices are provided. Furthermore, a CALM mooring system leads to lower wave transmission and also larger power production than a spread mooring. The two numerical codes have different potentialities. The hydrodynamics around single and multiple devices is obtained with MIKE 21 BW, while wave loads and motions for a single moored device are derived from ANSYS-AQWA. Combining the experimental and numerical it is suggested –for both coastal protection and energy production– to adopt a staggered layout, which will maximise the devices density and minimize the marine space required for the installation.

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The objective of this study is to measure the impact of the national subsidy scheme on the olive and fruit sector in two regions of Albania, Shkodra and Fier. From the methodological point of view, we use a non- parametric approach based on the propensity score matching. This method overcomes problem of the missing data, by creating a counterfactual scenario. In the first step, the conditional probability to participate in the program was computed. Afterwards, different matching estimators were applied to establish whether the subsidies have affected sectors performance. One of the strengths of this study stays in the data. Cross-sectional primary data was gathered through about 250 interviews.. We have not found empirical evidence of significant effects of government aid program on production. Differences in production found between beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries disappear after adjustment by the conditional probability of participating into the program. This suggests that subsidized farmers would have performed better than the subsidized households even in the absence of production grants, revealing program self-selection. On the other hand, the scheme has affected positively the farm structure increasing the area under cultivation, but yields has not increased for beneficiaries compared to non beneficiaries. These combined results shed light on the reason of the missed impact. It could be reasonable to believe that the new plantation, in particular in the case of olives, has not yet reached full production. Therefore, we have reasons to believe on positive impacts in the future. Concerning some qualitative results, the extension of area under cultivation is strongly conditioned by the small farm size. This together with a thin land market makes extremely difficult the expansion beyond farm boundaries.