102 resultados para ROC Curve

em Repositório Institucional UNESP - Universidade Estadual Paulista "Julio de Mesquita Filho"


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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Background: The objective of this study was to determine the early echocardiographic predictors of elevated left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP) after a long follow-up period in the infarcted rat model.Material/Methods: Five days and three months after surgery, sham and infarcted animals were subjected to transthoracic echocardiography. Regression analysis and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve were performed for predicting increased LVEDP 3 months after MI.Results: Among all of the variables, assessed 5 days after myocardial infarction, infarct size (OR: 0.760; CI 95% 0.563-0.900; p=0.005), end-systolic area (ESA) (OR: 0.761; Cl 95% 0.564-0.900; p=0.008), fractional area change (FAC) (OR: 0.771; CI 95% 0.574-0.907; p=0.003), and posterior wall-shortening velocity (PWSV) (OR: 0.703; CI 95% 0.502-0.860; p=0.048) were predictors of increased LVEDP. The LVEDP was 3.6 +/- 1.8 mmHg in the control group and 9.4 +/- 7.8 mmHg among the infarcted animals (p=0.007). Considering the critical value of predictor variables in inducing cardiac dysfunction, the cut-off value was 35% for infarct size, 0.33 cm(2) for ESA, 40% for FAC, and 26 mm/s for PWSV.Conclusions: Infarct size, FAC, ESA, and PWSV, assessed five days after myocardial infarction, can be used to estimate an increased LVEDP three months following the coronary occlusion.

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Inadequate dialysis causes accumulation of toxic residues that may lead to the development of dialysis-associated pericardial effusion, but several other factors could be associated with this abnormality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical risk factors to asymptomatic pericardial effusion in peritoneal dialysis.This cross-sectional study included 34 patients aged a parts per thousand yen18 years on peritoneal dialysis for at least 3 months, who showed no symptomatic pericardial effusion, hepatic cirrhosis, neoplasias, lupus or amputations, none in minoxidil use. Asymptomatic pericardial effusion was diagnosed by echocardiography. Risk factors were evaluated by logistic regression and Roc curve. Significance level was set at P < 0.05.Patient age was 51 +/- A 15.9 years. of the 34 patients enrolled, 16 were men and 11 diabetic. Five of them presented pericardial effusion. Logistic regression identifies low hemoglobin level (RR 0.454 CI 95%: 0.225-0.913; P = 0.027), low phase angle (RR 0.236 CI 95%: 0.057-0.984; P = 0.048) and low Kt/V (RR 0.001 CI 95%: 0.0-0.492; P = 0.03) as risk factors to pericardial effusion. Roc curve showed that hemoglobin levels below 12.2 g/dL, Kt/V lower than 1.9 and phase angle lower than 4.5A degrees were the best cutoffs to predict pericardial effusion. Four patients showed these three parameters in the unfavorable range, and all these four patients presented pericardial effusion. The other patient with pericardial effusion had two of these parameters reduced.These findings corroborate the hypothesis that uremia plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of dialysis-associated pericardial effusion.

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OBJETIVO: Avaliar o desempenho diagnóstico do índice de respiração rápida e superficial (IRRS) na predição do insucesso da extubação de pacientes adultos em terapia intensiva e verificar a adequação do valor de corte clássico para esse índice. MÉTODOS: Estudo prospectivo realizado na unidade de terapia intensiva de adultos do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, através da avaliação do IRRS em 73 pacientes consecutivos considerados clinicamente prontos para extubação. RESULTADOS: O IRRS com valor de corte clássico (105 ciclos/min/L) apresentou sensibilidade de 20% e especificidade de 95% (soma = 115%). A análise da curva receiver operator characteristic (ROC) demonstrou melhor valor de corte (76,5 ciclos/min/L), o qual forneceu sensibilidade de 66% e especificidade de 74% (soma = 140%), e a área sob a curva ROC para o IRRS foi de 0,78. CONCLUSÕES: O valor de corte clássico do IRRS se mostrou inadequado nesta casuística, prevendo apenas 20% dos pacientes com falha na extubação. A obtenção do novo valor de corte permitiu um acréscimo substancial de sensibilidade, com aceitável redução da especificidade. O valor da área sob a curva ROC indicou satisfatório poder discriminativo do índice, justificando a validação de sua aplicação.

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OBJETIVO: Estudar os padrões clínicos, radiológicos e histopatológicos da biópsia transbrônquica (BTB) utilizados para a confirmação diagnóstica em pacientes com suspeita clinica de doença pulmonar intersticial (DPI) atendidos em um hospital universitário de nível terciário. MÉTODOS: Os prontuários, laudos radiológicos e de biópsias transbrônquicas de todos os pacientes com suspeita de DPI submetidos a BTB entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2006 no Hospital das Clínicas de Botucatu, localizado na cidade de Botucatu (SP), foram revisados. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos no estudo 56 pacientes. Desses, 11 (19,6%) apresentaram o diagnóstico definitivo de fibrose pulmonar idiopática (FPI), que foi significativamente maior nos casos nos quais DPI era uma possibilidade diagnóstica em comparação com aqueles nos quais DPI era a principal suspeita (p = 0,011), demonstrando a contribuição da BTB para a definição diagnóstica dessas doenças. O exame histopatológico dessas biópsias revelou que 27,3% dos pacientes com FPI apresentavam o padrão de pneumonia organizante, o que pode sugerir doença mais avançada. O padrão histológico indeterminado foi o mais frequente, refletindo a característica periférica da FPI. Entretanto, o padrão fibrose apresentou alta especificidade e alto valor preditivo negativo. Para os padrões sugestivos de FPI em TC, a curva ROC indicou que a melhor relação entre sensibilidade e especificidade ocorreu com a presença de cinco alterações radiológicas, sendo o aspecto de favo de mel fortemente sugestivo de FPI (p = 0,01). CONCLUSÕES: Nas DPIs, a TC de tórax deve ser sempre realizada e a BTB usada em situações individualizadas, conforme a suspeita e distribuição das lesões.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Background: Although the motile sperm organelle morphology examination (MSOME) was developed merely as a selection criterion, its application as a method for classifying sperm morphology may represent an improvement in the evaluation of semen quality. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of normal sperm morphology using MSOME with regard to clinical pregnancy (CP) after intrauterine insemination (IUI).Methods: A total of 156 IUI cycles that were performed in 111 couples were prospectively analysed. Each subject received 75 IU of recombinant FSH every second day from the third day of the cycle. Beginning on the 10th day of the cycle, follicular development was monitored by vaginal ultrasound. When one or two follicles measuring at least 17 mm were observed, recombinant hCG was administered, and IUI was performed 12-14 h and 36-40 h after hCG treatment. Prior to the IUI procedure, sperm samples were analysed by MSOME at 8400x magnification using an inverted microscope that was equipped with DIC/Nomarski differential interference contrast optics. A minimum of 200 motile spermatozoa per semen sample were evaluated, and the percentage of normal spermatozoa in each sample was determined.Results: Pregnancy occurred in 34 IUI cycles (CP rate per cycle: 21.8%, per patient: 30.6%). Based on the MSOME criteria, a significantly higher percentage of normal spermatozoa was found in the group of men in which the IUI cycles resulted in pregnancy (2.6+/-3.1%) compared to the group that did not achieve pregnancy (1.2+/-1.7%; P = 0.019). Logistic regression showed that the percentage of normal cells in the MSOME was a determining factor for the likelihood of clinical pregnancy (OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.51; P = 0.003). The ROC curve revealed an area under the curve of 0.63 and an optimum cut-off point of 2% of normal sperm morphology. At this cut-off threshold, using the percentage of normal sperm morphology by MSOME to predict pregnancy was 50% sensitive with a 40% positive predictive value and 79% specificity with an 85% negative predictive value. The efficacy of using the percentage of normal sperm morphology by MSOME in predicting pregnancy was 65%.Conclusions: The present findings support the use of high-magnification microscopy both for selecting spermatozoa and as a routine method for analysing semen before performing IUI.

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Background: The objective was to present a new ovarian response prediction index (ORPI), which was based on anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) levels, antral follicle count (AFC) and age, and to verify whether it could be a reliable predictor of the ovarian stimulation response.Methods: A total of 101 patients enrolled in the ICSI programme were included. The ORPI values were calculated by multiplying the AMH level (ng/ml) by the number of antral follicles (2-9 mm), and the result was divided by the age (years) of the patient (ORPI=(AMH x AFC)/Patient age).Results: The regression analysis demonstrated significant (P<0.0001) positive correlations between the ORPI and the total number of oocytes and of MII oocytes collected. The logistic regression revealed that the ORPI values were significantly associated with the likelihood of pregnancy (odds ratio (OR): 1.86; P=0.006) and collecting greater than or equal to 4 oocytes (OR: 49.25; P<0.0001), greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes (OR: 6.26; P<0.0001) and greater than or equal to 15 oocytes (OR: 6.10; P<0.0001). Regarding the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 4 oocytes according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.91 and an efficacy of 88% at a cut-off of 0.2. In relation to the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve had an AUC of 0.84 and an efficacy of 81% at a cut-off of 0.3. The ROC curve for the probability of collecting greater than or equal to 15 oocytes resulted in an AUC of 0.89 and an efficacy of 82% at a cut-off of 0.9. Finally, regarding the probability of pregnancy occurrence according to the ORPI value, the ROC curve showed an AUC of 0.74 and an efficacy of 62% at a cut-off of 0.3.Conclusions: The ORPI exhibited an excellent ability to predict a low ovarian response and a good ability to predict a collection of greater than or equal to 4 MII oocytes, an excessive ovarian response and the occurrence of pregnancy in infertile women. The ORPI might be used to improve the cost-benefit ratio of ovarian stimulation regimens by guiding the selection of medications and by modulating the doses and regimens according to the actual needs of the patients.

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Objective: To determine the number of colony-forming units (CFU) that best correlates with catheter-related infections (CRI) in newborns.Methods: This was a prospective study of semiquantitative cultures of catheter tips obtained from newborns in the neonatal unit at Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu, state of São Paulo, Brazil. The microorganisms isolated from catheter and peripheral blood cultures were identified and submitted to a drug susceptibility test. The optimal cutoff point was determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results: A total of 85 catheters obtained from 63 newborns were studied. Staphylococcus epidermidis was the predominant species in the catheters (75%). Eight of 11 (72.7%) CRI episodes were associated with coagulase-negative staphylococci, six of which were of the S. epidermidis type. ROC curve analysis indicated that the optimal cutoff point for the diagnosis of CRI was 122 CFU.Conclusions: The cutoff point of 122 CFU correlated best with the diagnosis of CRI in newborns.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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Purpose: To compare visual inspection (VI), radiographic examination (RX) and the laser fluorescence device DIAGNOdent (L), as well as their combinations in vitro regarding treatment decisions for occlusal surfaces. Methods: 72 extracted human permanent teeth (molars and premolars) were used. Treatment decisions were recorded by three calibrated examiners, and the options available were fissure sealant and conservative restoration. For validation of treatment decisions, the teeth were sectioned and examined in a stereomicroscope. Thereafter, dental slices were scanned and the images were edited to facilitate classification of existing carious lesions. Intra and inter-examiner reproducibility for the determination of treatment plans were calculated using Cohen's kappa test (95%-CI). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the ROC curve were also calculated. Results: VI and L provided on average the greatest intra- and inter-examiner reproducibility, respectively. Although the combination of diagnostic methods may decrease both intra- and inter examiners reproducibility, combination of VI, L and RX resulted in the greatest sensitivity, being statistically superior to RX and L. There was more inter-examiner agreement for the option of restorative treatment, while the use of sealants as a treatment option yielded the lowest values. Negative predictive values were numerically inferior to positive predictive values, indicating that the examiners preferred not to restore a carious tooth than to proceed operatively in an intact tooth. The combination of the three methods studied showed the best results in determining treatment plans for occlusal surfaces, when compared to the other types of exams. on the other hand, radiographic examination and laser fluorescence were less efficient when used alone.

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Objectives:The aim of this in vitro study was to assess the inter- and intra-examiner reproducibility and the accuracy of the International Caries Detection and Assessment System-II (ICDAS-II) in detecting occlusal caries.Methods:One hundred and sixty-three molars were independently assessed twice by two experienced dentists using the 0- to 6-graded ICDAS-II. The teeth were histologically prepared and classified using two different histological systems [Ekstrand et al. (1997) Caries Research vol. 31, pp. 224-231; Lussi et al. (1999) Caries Research vol. 33, pp. 261-266] and assessed for caries extension. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and area under the ROC curve (A(z)) were obtained at D(2) and D(3) thresholds. Unweighted kappa coefficient was used to assess inter- and intra-examiner reproducibility.Results:For the Ekstrand et al. histological classification the sensitivity was 0.99 and 1.00, specificity 1.00 and 0.69 and accuracy 0.99 and 0.76 at D(2) and D(3), respectively. For the Lussi et al. histological classification the sensitivity was 0.91 and 0.75, specificity 0.47 and 0.62 and accuracy 0.86 and 0.68 at D(2) and D(3), respectively. The A(z) varied from 0.54 to 0.73. The inter- and intra-examiner kappa values were 0.51 and 0.58, respectively.Conclusions:ICDAS-II presented good reproducibility and accuracy in detecting occlusal caries, especially caries lesions in the outer half of the enamel.

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This study compared the performance of fluorescence-based methods, radiographic examination, and International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS) II on occlusal surfaces. One hundred and nineteen permanent human molars were assessed twice by 2 experienced dentists using the laser fluorescence (LF and LFpen) and fluorescence camera (FC) devices, ICDAS II and bitewing radiographs (BW). After measuring, the teeth were histologically prepared and assessed for caries extension. The sensitivities for dentine caries detection were 0.86 (FC), 0.78 (LFpen), 0.73 (ICDAS II), 0.51 (LF) and 0.34 (BW). The specificities were 0.97 (BW), 0.89 (LF), 0.65 (ICDAS II), 0.63 (FC) and 0.56 (LFpen). BW presented the highest values of likelihood ratio (LR)+ (12.47) and LR- (0.68). Rank correlations with histology were 0.53 (LF), 0.52 (LFpen), 0.41 (FC), 0.59 (ICDAS II) and 0.57 (BW). The area under the ROC curve varied from 0.72 to 0.83. Inter- and intraexaminer intraclass correlation values were respectively 0.90 and 0.85 (LF), 0.93 and 0.87 (LFpen) and 0.85 and 0.76 (FC). The ICDAS II kappa values were 0.51 (interexaminer) and 0.61 (intraexaminer). The BW kappa values were 0.50 (interexaminer) and 0.62 (intraexaminer). The Bland and Altman limits of agreement were 46.0 and 38.2 (LF), 55.6 and 40.0 (LFpen) and 1.12 and 0.80 (FC), for intra- and interexaminer reproducibilities. The posttest probability for dentine caries detection was high for BW and LF. In conclusion, LFpen, FC and ICDAS II presented better sensitivity and LF and BW better specificity. ICDAS II combined with BW showed the best performance and is the best combination for detecting caries on occlusal surfaces. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Background: Recent studies have identified that a higher resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with elevated blood pressure, independent of body fatness, age and ethnicity. However, it is still unclear whether RHR can also be applied as a screening for other risk factors, such as hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia. Thus, the purpose of the presented study was to analyze the association between RHR, lipid profile and fasting glucose in obese children and adolescents.Methods: The sample was composed of 180 obese children and adolescents, aged between 7-16 years. Whole-body and segmental body composition were estimated by Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Resting heart rate (RHR) was measured by heart rate monitors. The fasting blood samples were analyzed for serum triglycerides, total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and glucose, using the colorimetric method.Results: Fasting glucose, TC, triglycerides, HDL-C, LDL-C and RHR were similar in both genders. The group of obese subjects with a higher RHR presented, at a lower age, higher triglycerides and TC. There was a significant relationship between RHR, triglycerides and TC. In the multivariate model, triglycerides and TC maintained a significant relationship with RHR independent of age, gender, general and trunk adiposity. The ROC curve indicated that RHR has a high potential for screening elevated total cholesterol and triglycerides as well as dyslipidemia.Conclusion: Elevated RHR has the potential to identify subjects at an increased risk of atherosclerosis development.