Establishing the risk of neonatal mortality using a fuzzy predictive model

O objetivo do artigo foi avaliar o uso da lógica fuzzy para estimar possibilidade de óbito neonatal. Desenvolveu-se um modelo computacional com base na teoria dos conjuntos fuzzy, tendo como variáveis peso ao nascer, idade gestacional, escore de Apgar e relato de natimorto. Empregou-se o método de inferência de Mamdani, e a variável de saída foi o risco de morte neonatal. Criaram-se 24 regras de acordo com as variáveis de entrada, e a validação do modelo utilizou um banco de dados real de uma cidade brasileira. A acurácia foi estimada pela curva ROC; os riscos foram comparados pelo teste t de Student. O programa MATLAB 6.5 foi usado para construir o modelo. Os riscos médios foram menores para os que sobreviveram (p < 0,001). A acurácia do modelo foi 0,90. A maior acurácia foi com possibilidade de risco igual ou menor que 25% (sensibilidade = 0,70, especificidade = 0,98, valor preditivo negativo = 0,99 e valor preditivo positivo = 0,22). O modelo mostrou acurácia e valor preditivo negativo bons, podendo ser utilizado em hospitais gerais.

The diagnostic value of Gram stain for initial identification of the etiologic agent of peritonitis in CAPD patients

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of the Gram stain in the initial diagnosis of the etiologic agent of peritonitis in continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD). Design: Retrospective study analyzing the sensitivity (S), specificity (SS), positive predictive value (+PV), and negative predictive value (-PV) of the Gram stain relating to the results of cultures in 149 episodes of peritonitis in CAPD. The data were analyzed in two studies. In the first, only the cases with detection of a single agent by Gram stain were taken (Study 1). In the second, only the cases with two agents in Gram stain were evaluated (Study 2). Setting: Dialysis Unit and Laboratory of Microbiology of a tertiary medical center. Patients: Sixty-three patients on regular CAPD who presented one or more episodes of peritonitis from May 1992 to May 1995. Results: The positivity of Gram stain was 93.2% and the sensitivity was 95.7%. The values of S, SS, +PV, and -PV were respectively: 94.9%, 53.5%, 68.3%, and 90.9% for gram-positive cocci and 83.3%, 98.8%, 95.2%, and 95.6% for gram-negative bacilli. The association of gram-positive cocci plus gram-negative bacilli were predictive of growth of both in 6.8%, growth of gram-positive cocci in 13.7%, and growth of gram-negative bacilli in 72.5%. Conclusions: The Gram stain is a method of great value in the initial diagnosis of the etiologic agent of peritonitis in CAPD, especially for gram-negative bacilli.

The influence of zero-value subtraction on the performance of two laser fluorescence devices for detecting occlusal caries in vitro

Background. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of zero-value subtraction on the performance of two laser fluorescence (LF) devices developed to detect occlusal caries. Methods. The authors selected 119 permanent molars. Two examiners assessed three areas (cuspal, middle and cervical) of both mesial and distal portions of the buccal surface and one occlusal site using an LF device and an LF pen. For each tooth, the authors subtracted the value measured in the cuspal, middle and cervical areas in the buccal surface from the value measured in the respective occlusal site. Results. The authors observed differences among the readings for both devices in the cuspal, middle and cervical areas in the buccal surface as well as differences for both devices with and without the zero-value subtraction in the occlusal surface. When the authors did not perform the zero-value subtraction, they found statistically significant differences for sensitivity and accuracy for the LF device. When this was done with the LF pen, specificity increased and sensitivity decreased significantly. Conclusions. For the LF device, the zero-value subtraction decreased the sensitivity. For this reason, the authors concluded that clinicians can obtain measures with the LF device effectively without using zero-value subtraction. For the LF pen, however, the absence of the zero-value subtraction changed both the sensitivity and specificity, and so the authors concluded that clinicians should not eliminate this step from the procedure. Clinical Implications. When using the LF device, clinicians might not need to perform the zero-value subtraction; however, for the LF pen, clinicians should do so.

Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of linear and nonlinear indices of heart rate variability in stable angina patients

Background: Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is related to higher morbidity and mortality. In this study we evaluated the linear and nonlinear indices of the HRV in stable angina patients submitted to coronary angiography. Methods. We studied 77 unselected patients for elective coronary angiography, which were divided into two groups: coronary artery disease (CAD) and non-CAD groups. For analysis of HRV indices, HRV was recorded beat by beat with the volunteers in the supine position for 40 minutes. We analyzed the linear indices in the time (SDNN [standard deviation of normal to normal], NN50 [total number of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms] and RMSSD [root-mean square of differences]) and frequency domains ultra-low frequency (ULF) ≤ 0,003 Hz, very low frequency (VLF) 0,003 - 0,04 Hz, low frequency (LF) (0.04-0.15 Hz), and high frequency (HF) (0.15-0.40 Hz) as well as the ratio between LF and HF components (LF/HF). In relation to the nonlinear indices we evaluated SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, approximate entropy (-ApEn), α1, α2, Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, autocorrelation and dimension correlation. The definition of the cutoff point of the variables for predictive tests was obtained by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC). The area under the ROC curve was calculated by the extended trapezoidal rule, assuming as relevant areas under the curve ≥ 0.650. Results: Coronary arterial disease patients presented reduced values of SDNN, RMSSD, NN50, HF, SD1, SD2 and -ApEn. HF ≤ 66 ms§ssup§2§esup§, RMSSD ≤ 23.9 ms, ApEn ≤-0.296 and NN50 ≤ 16 presented the best discriminatory power for the presence of significant coronary obstruction. Conclusion: We suggest the use of Heart Rate Variability Analysis in linear and nonlinear domains, for prognostic purposes in patients with stable angina pectoris, in view of their overall impairment. © 2012 Pivatelli et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Accuracy of Tc-99m-sestamibi scintimammography for breast cancer diagnosis

Scintimammography using Tc-99m-sestamibi is a noninvasive and painless diagnostic imaging method that is used to detect breast cancer when mammography is inconclusive Because of the advantages of labeling v '7,ith Tc-99m-sestamibi and its high efficiency in detecting carcinomas, it is the most widespread agent for this purpose Its accumulation in the tumor has multifactorial causes and does not depend on the presence of architectural distortion or local or diffuse density variation in the breast The objective of tfiis study was to evaluate the accuracy of scintimammography 1 for detecting breast cancer One hundred and fifty-seven patients presenting 158 palpable and non-palpable breast nodules were evaluated Three patients were male and 154 were female, aged between 14 and 81 years All patients underwent scintimammography, and the nodule was subjected i to cytological or histological study, i e, the gold standard for diagnosing cancer One hundred and eleven malignant and 47 benign nodules were detected, with predominance of ductal carcinomas (n=94) and fibroadenoma/fibrocysiic condition (n=11/n=11), respectively The mean size was 3 11 cm (7-10 cm) among the malignant nodules and 2 07 cm among the benign nodules (0 5-10 cm) The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy were 89, 89, 95, 78 and 89%, respectively Analysis on the histological types showed that the technique was more effective on tumors that were more aggressive, such as ductal carcinoma In this study, Tc-99m-sestamibi scintim immography was shown to be an important tool for diagnosing breast cancer when mammography was inconclusive

TSH and TPOAB as predictors of thyroid disease in diabetic patients

We tested the values of antithyroid peroxidase antibody and thyrotropin levels for the development of thyroid dysfunction in 109 diabetic patients. Baseline thyrotropin level was a predictor of thyroid dysfunction in diabetic patients, excluding nodular disease. The antithyroid peroxidase antibody had no predictive value for thyroid dysfunction.

Avaliação da utilização de biópsia transbrônquica em pacientes com suspeita clínica de doença pulmonar intersticial

OBJETIVO: Estudar os padrões clínicos, radiológicos e histopatológicos da biópsia transbrônquica (BTB) utilizados para a confirmação diagnóstica em pacientes com suspeita clinica de doença pulmonar intersticial (DPI) atendidos em um hospital universitário de nível terciário. MÉTODOS: Os prontuários, laudos radiológicos e de biópsias transbrônquicas de todos os pacientes com suspeita de DPI submetidos a BTB entre janeiro de 1999 e dezembro de 2006 no Hospital das Clínicas de Botucatu, localizado na cidade de Botucatu (SP), foram revisados. RESULTADOS: Foram incluídos no estudo 56 pacientes. Desses, 11 (19,6%) apresentaram o diagnóstico definitivo de fibrose pulmonar idiopática (FPI), que foi significativamente maior nos casos nos quais DPI era uma possibilidade diagnóstica em comparação com aqueles nos quais DPI era a principal suspeita (p = 0,011), demonstrando a contribuição da BTB para a definição diagnóstica dessas doenças. O exame histopatológico dessas biópsias revelou que 27,3% dos pacientes com FPI apresentavam o padrão de pneumonia organizante, o que pode sugerir doença mais avançada. O padrão histológico indeterminado foi o mais frequente, refletindo a característica periférica da FPI. Entretanto, o padrão fibrose apresentou alta especificidade e alto valor preditivo negativo. Para os padrões sugestivos de FPI em TC, a curva ROC indicou que a melhor relação entre sensibilidade e especificidade ocorreu com a presença de cinco alterações radiológicas, sendo o aspecto de favo de mel fortemente sugestivo de FPI (p = 0,01). CONCLUSÕES: Nas DPIs, a TC de tórax deve ser sempre realizada e a BTB usada em situações individualizadas, conforme a suspeita e distribuição das lesões.

Associação entre doença arterial coronariana e as pregas lobular diagonal e anterotragal em homens

FUNDAMENTOS: Diversas alterações dermatológicas foram associadas à doença arterial coronariana, representando achados de fácil constatação que podem contribuir na estratificação não invasiva do risco cardíaco. OBJETIVOS: Avaliar comparativamente a prevalência de certos achados dermatológicos em pacientes com ou sem doença arterial coronariana. MÉTODOS: Estudo caso/controle envolvendo pacientes do sexo masculino submetidos à cineangiocoronariografia. Foram considerados aqueles casos com obstrução de mais de 50% em pelo menos uma coronária. Avaliou-se a presença da prega lobular diagonal, prega anterotragal, alopecia e presença de pêlos no tórax nos dois grupos. Os resultados foram ajustados para os fatores de risco: tabagismo, hipertensão, diabetes, idade, dislipidemia e índice de massa corporal. RESULTADOS: Analisaram-se 110 pacientes (80 casos e 30 controles). A prevalência da prega lobular diagonal nos casos (60,0%) foi maior do que no grupo controle (30,0%) (p<0,05). Alopecia androgenética e distribuição de pêlos no tórax não demonstraram associação positiva com coronariopatia neste estudo. O Odds Ratio (IC 95%), da prega lobular diagonal foi de 3,1 (1,2-8,3) e para prega anterotragal foi de 5,5 (1,9-16,3). A verificação simultânea da prega lobular diagonal e prega anterotragal representou valor preditivo positivo de 90%. CONCLUSÕES: Detectou-se associação positiva entre a presença da prega lobular diagonal bilateral e prega anterotragal bilateral com doença arterial coronariana, sendo que a presença simultânea das duas pregas apresenta alta preditividade para doença arterial coronariana.

Comparison of the psychological evaluation test and classical psychoanalysis in infertile women

This study aims to compare a psychological evaluation test to classical psychoanalysis in infertile women. Two hundred women were submitted to the Psychological Evaluation Test (PET). The sum of the scores for the responses ranged from 15 to 60 points, with scores 30 points being defined as 'psycho-emotional maladjustment' (cut-off point: median + 25%). For comparison, the patients were simultaneously submitted to a psychological examination by a psychologist, who was unaware of the PET results. of the 200 patients, 66 (33%) presented a test with greater than or equal to30 points ('psycho-emotional maladjustment') and 134 (67%) a test with <30 points (normal). Upon psychological examination, 105 (52.5%) presented an abnormal evaluation and 95 (47.5%) a normal evaluation. For the PET, statistical analysis showed 82% efficiency, 62% sensitivity, 98% positive predictive value, 99% specificity, 70% negative predictive value, likelihood ratio for a positive test result 62, and likelihood ratio for negative test result 0.38. The PET proved to be a useful clinical instrument, being of help in the selection of patients with psychological needs induced by infertility.

Cell blocks allow reliable evaluation of expression of basal (CK5/6) and luminal (CK8/18) cytokeratins and smooth muscle actin (SMA) in breast carcinoma

Objective:Gene expression studies have revealed several molecular subtypes of breast carcinoma with distinct clinical and biological behaviours. DNA microarray studies correlated with immunohistochemical profiling of breast carcinomas using cytokeratin (CK) markers, Her2/neu, oestrogen receptor (ER), and basal myoepithelial cell markers have identified five breast tumour subtypes: (i) luminal A (ER+; Her2/neu-), (ii) luminal B (ER+; Her2/neu+), (iii) Her2 overexpression (ER-; Her2/neu+), (iv) basal-like (ER-; Her2/neu-, CK5/6 and 14+), and (v) negative for all markers. Luminal carcinomas express cytokeratins in a luminal pattern (CK8/18), and the basal-like type expresses CK5/6 and CK14 or basal epithelial cell markers. CK5/6, CK8/18, and smooth muscle actin (SMA) expression were assessed in cell blocks and compared with expression in surgical specimens.Methods:Sixty-two cases of breast carcinoma diagnosed by fine needle aspiration cytology with cell blocks and available surgical specimens were included. Cell blocks containing at least 10 high-power fields each with at least 10 tumour cells and surgical specimens were immunostained for CK5/6, CK8/18 and SMA.Results:Percentage sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy were, respectively, 77, 100, 100, 92 and 94 for CK5/6; 98, 66, 96, 80 and 95 for CK8/18; and 92, 96, 85, 98 and 95 for SMA.Conclusion:The identification of CK5/6, CK8/18 and SMA by immunohistochemistry in cell blocks can be a reliable method that yields results close to those obtained in surgical specimens, and can contribute to the classification of breast carcinomas with luminal and basal expression patterns, providing helpful information in the choice of treatment and in the evaluation of prognostic and predictive factors.

Serum inhibin A and angiogenic factor levels in pregnancies with previous preeclampsia and/or chronic hypertension: are they useful markers for prediction of subsequent preeclampsia?

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to determine whether measurement of placenta growth factor (PLGF), inhibin A, or soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) at 2 times during pregnancy would usefully predict subsequent preeclampsia ( PE) in women at high risk. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed serum obtained at enrollment (12(0/7) to 19(6/7) weeks) and follow-up (24-28 weeks) from 704 patients with previous PE and/or chronic hypertension (CHTN) enrolled in a randomized trial for the prevention of PE. Logistic regression analysis assessed the association of log-transformed markers with subsequent PE; receiver operating characteristic analysis assessed predictive value. RESULTS: One hundred four developed preeclampsia: 27 at 37 weeks or longer and 77 at less than 37 weeks (9 at less than 27 weeks). None of the markers was associated with PE at 37 weeks or longer. Significant associations were observed between PE at less than 37 weeks and reduced PLGF levels at baseline (P =.022) and follow-up (P <.0001) and elevated inhibin A (P <.0001) and sFlt-1 (P =.0002) levels at follow-up; at 75% specificity, sensitivities ranged from 38% to 52%. Using changes in markers from baseline to follow-up, sensitivities were 52-55%. Associations were observed between baseline markers and PE less than 27 weeks (P <=.0004 for all); sensitivities were 67-89%, but positive predictive values (PPVs) were only 3.4-4.5%. CONCLUSION: Inhibin A and circulating angiogenic factors levels obtained at 12(0/7) to 19(6/7) weeks have significant associations with onset of PE at less than 27 weeks, as do levels obtained at 24-28 weeks with onset of PE at less than 37 weeks. However, because the corresponding sensitivities and/or PPVs were low, these markers might not be clinically useful to predict PE in women with previous PE and/or CHTN.

Efficacy of the motile sperm organelle morphology examination (MSOME) in predicting pregnancy after intrauterine insemination

Background: Although the motile sperm organelle morphology examination (MSOME) was developed merely as a selection criterion, its application as a method for classifying sperm morphology may represent an improvement in the evaluation of semen quality. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of normal sperm morphology using MSOME with regard to clinical pregnancy (CP) after intrauterine insemination (IUI).Methods: A total of 156 IUI cycles that were performed in 111 couples were prospectively analysed. Each subject received 75 IU of recombinant FSH every second day from the third day of the cycle. Beginning on the 10th day of the cycle, follicular development was monitored by vaginal ultrasound. When one or two follicles measuring at least 17 mm were observed, recombinant hCG was administered, and IUI was performed 12-14 h and 36-40 h after hCG treatment. Prior to the IUI procedure, sperm samples were analysed by MSOME at 8400x magnification using an inverted microscope that was equipped with DIC/Nomarski differential interference contrast optics. A minimum of 200 motile spermatozoa per semen sample were evaluated, and the percentage of normal spermatozoa in each sample was determined.Results: Pregnancy occurred in 34 IUI cycles (CP rate per cycle: 21.8%, per patient: 30.6%). Based on the MSOME criteria, a significantly higher percentage of normal spermatozoa was found in the group of men in which the IUI cycles resulted in pregnancy (2.6+/-3.1%) compared to the group that did not achieve pregnancy (1.2+/-1.7%; P = 0.019). Logistic regression showed that the percentage of normal cells in the MSOME was a determining factor for the likelihood of clinical pregnancy (OR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.08 to 1.51; P = 0.003). The ROC curve revealed an area under the curve of 0.63 and an optimum cut-off point of 2% of normal sperm morphology. At this cut-off threshold, using the percentage of normal sperm morphology by MSOME to predict pregnancy was 50% sensitive with a 40% positive predictive value and 79% specificity with an 85% negative predictive value. The efficacy of using the percentage of normal sperm morphology by MSOME in predicting pregnancy was 65%.Conclusions: The present findings support the use of high-magnification microscopy both for selecting spermatozoa and as a routine method for analysing semen before performing IUI.

Associação glicemia de jejum e fatores de risco como teste para rastreamento do diabete gestacional

OBJETIVOS: comparar dois testes de rastreamento do diabete gestacional. MÉTODOS: estudo prospectivo no qual foram avaliadas 356 gestantes, sem diagnóstico prévio do diabete melito, submetidas, de modo independente, a dois testes de rastreamento: associação glicemia de jejum e fator de risco (GJ+FR) e teste oral simplificado de tolerância à glicose (TTG50g). A comparação entre os métodos foi realizada pelos índices de sensibilidade (S), especificidade (E) e valores preditivos positivo (VPP) e negativo (VPN), resultados falsos, positivos (FP) e negativos (FN) e pela diferença dos resultados observados e esperados, avaliada pelo teste do Qui-quadrado (p<0,05). RESULTADOS: a associação GJ+FR determinou a confirmação diagnóstica em maior número de gestantes (187; 52,5%) que o TTG50g (49; 13,8%). Esta diferença foi significativa (p<0,05). A associação GJ+FR apresentou sensibilidade de 83,7% e valor preditivo negativo (VPN) de 95,3% em relação ao TTG50g. CONCLUSÕES: os índices elevados de sensibilidade e VPN da associação GJ+FR em relação ao TTG50g, sua simplicidade, praticidade, baixo custo e fácil replicação permitem sua indicação no rastreamento do diabete gestacional.

Cardiotocografia Anteparto e Prognóstico Perinatal em Gestações Complicadas pelo Diabete: Influência do Controle Metabólico Materno

Objetivo: relacionar a qualidade do controle metabólico com os resultados da cardiotocografia (CTG) anteparto e avaliar sua capacidade preditiva no prognóstico perinatal de gestações associadas ao diabete. Pacientes e Métodos: estudo retrospectivo de 125 gestantes, portadoras de diabete gestacional ou clínico, no qual se relacionou a última CTG anteparto (intervalo máximo de 48 horas) à qualidade do controle metabólico materno e aos resultados perinatais. A qualidade do controle metabólico foi definida pela média glicêmica do dia do exame (MGd) e da gestação (MG) e pelo comportamento da requisição de insulina (R/insulina). Para os resultados perinatais foram analisados os índices de Apgar de 1º e 5º minuto, a classificação peso/idade gestacional, o tempo de internação, a necessidade de cuidados de UTI e a ocorrência de óbito neonatal (ONN) precoce. A capacidade diagnóstica da CTG anteparto foi avaliada pelos índices de sensibilidade, especificidade e valor preditivo positivo e negativo. Resultados: a MGd adequada (<120 mg/dL) associou-se a 2,9% dos resultados de CTG anteparto alterados e a inadequada ( > ou = 120 mg/dL), a 26,1% (p<0,005). A MG mantida inadequada se relacionou a 13,7% de CTG anteparto alterada e a adequada, a apenas 2,7% (p<0,005). O comportamento da requisição de insulina não interferiu nos resultados da CTG anteparto. Os índices de Apgar de 1º e 5º minuto, a necessidade de cuidados de UTI e a ocorrência de ONN precoce não dependeram do último traçado da CTG anteparto. O exame diferenciou o tempo de internação dos recém-nascidos: quando normal, 46,4% tiveram alta hospitalar até o 3º dia de vida e, quando alterado, 62,5% deles ficaram internados por mais de sete dias. Conclusões: os resultados alterados da última CTG anteparto relacionaram-se com níveis inadequados de MG, diária e da gestação, e não dependeram da R/insulina. O resultado normal da CTG anteparto foi adequado para garantir a saúde neonatal. Ao contrário, os resultados alterados indicaram risco de complicações nos filhos de mães diabéticas.

Identification of dementia cases in the community: A Brazilian experience

OBJECTIVES: To describe the application in Brazil of a simple, low-cost procedure, developed in India by the 10/66 Dementia Research Group, for the identification of dementia cases in the community.DESIGN: Community-based dementia case-finding method.SETTING: Piraju, São Paulo, Brazil.PARTICIPANTS: Twenty-five community health workers were trained to identify dementia cases in 2,222 people aged 65 and older in Piraju, a Brazilian town with 27,871 inhabitants.MEAUREMENTS: After the training, the health workers prepared a list of possible cases that afterward an experienced psychiatrist clinically evaluated, according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV), criteria and the Clinical Dementia Rating.RESULTS: of the 72 cases that were clinically assessed, 45 met the DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for dementia. Therefore, the positive predictive value of this case finding method was 62.5%; the estimated frequency of dementia was 2%. Most of the confirmed cases met clinical criteria for Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia.CONCLUSION: This simple method was appropriate to identify cases of dementia in the general population and can possibly be extended to other developing countries with limited resources to be applied in health programs.