Comparison of logistic and neural network models to fit to the egg production curve of White Leghorn hens

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Weather-based prediction of anthracnose severity using artificial neural network models

Data were collected and analysed from seven field sites in Australia, Brazil and Colombia on weather conditions and the severity of anthracnose disease of the tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra caused by Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. Disease severity and weather data were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) models developed using data from some or all field sites in Australia and/or South America to predict severity at other sites. Three series of models were developed using different weather summaries. of these, ANN models with weather for the day of disease assessment and the previous 24 h period had the highest prediction success, and models trained on data from all sites within one continent correctly predicted disease severity in the other continent on more than 75% of days; the overall prediction error was 21.9% for the Australian and 22.1% for the South American model. of the six cross-continent ANN models trained on pooled data for five sites from two continents to predict severity for the remaining sixth site, the model developed without data from Planaltina in Brazil was the most accurate, with >85% prediction success, and the model without Carimagua in Colombia was the least accurate, with only 54% success. In common with multiple regression models, moisture-related variables such as rain, leaf surface wetness and variables that influence moisture availability such as radiation and wind on the day of disease severity assessment or the day before assessment were the most important weather variables in all ANN models. A set of weights from the ANN models was used to calculate the overall risk of anthracnose for the various sites. Sites with high and low anthracnose risk are present in both continents, and weather conditions at centres of diversity in Brazil and Colombia do not appear to be more conducive than conditions in Australia to serious anthracnose development.

Predicting body and carcass characteristics of 2 broiler chicken strains using support vector regression and neural network models

As a new modeling method, support vector regression (SVR) has been regarded as the state-of-the-art technique for regression and approximation. In this study, the SVR models had been introduced and developed to predict body and carcass-related characteristics of 2 strains of broiler chicken. To evaluate the prediction ability of SVR models, we compared their performance with that of neural network (NN) models. Evaluation of the prediction accuracy of models was based on the R-2, MS error, and bias. The variables of interest as model output were BW, empty BW, carcass, breast, drumstick, thigh, and wing weight in 2 strains of Ross and Cobb chickens based on intake dietary nutrients, including ME (kcal/bird per week), CP, TSAA, and Lys, all as grams per bird per week. A data set composed of 64 measurements taken from each strain were used for this analysis, where 44 data lines were used for model training, whereas the remaining 20 lines were used to test the created models. The results of this study revealed that it is possible to satisfactorily estimate the BW and carcass parts of the broiler chickens via their dietary nutrient intake. Through statistical criteria used to evaluate the performance of the SVR and NN models, the overall results demonstrate that the discussed models can be effective for accurate prediction of the body and carcass-related characteristics investigated here. However, the SVR method achieved better accuracy and generalization than the NN method. This indicates that the new data mining technique (SVR model) can be used as an alternative modeling tool for NN models. However, further reevaluation of this algorithm in the future is suggested.

Using error bounds to compare aggregated generalized transportation models

A comparative study of aggregation error bounds for the generalized transportation problem is presented. A priori and a posteriori error bounds were derived and a computational study was performed to (a) test the correlation between the a priori, the a posteriori, and the actual error and (b) quantify the difference of the error bounds from the actual error. Based on the results we conclude that calculating the a priori error bound can be considered as a useful strategy to select the appropriate aggregation level. The a posteriori error bound provides a good quantitative measure of the actual error.

Evolutionary multi-move path-relinking for transmission network expansion planning

This paper presents the application of a new metaheuristic algorithm to solve the transmission expansion planning problem. A simple heuristic, using a relaxed network model associated with cost perturbation, is applied to generate a set of high quality initial solutions with different topologies. The population is evolved using a multi-move path-relinking with the objective of finding minimum investment cost for the transmission expansion planning problem employing the DC representation. The algorithm is tested on the southern Brazilian system, obtaining the optimal solution for the system with better performance than similar metaheuristics algorithms applied to the same problem. ©2010 IEEE.

Artificial neural network model of discharge lamps in the power quality context

This paper presents a methodology for modeling high intensity discharge lamps based on artificial neural networks. The methodology provides a model which is able to represent the device operating in the frequency of distribution systems, facing events related to power quality. With the aid of a data acquisition system to monitor the laboratory experiment, and using $$\text{ MATLAB }^{\textregistered }$$ software, data was obtained for the training of two neural networks. These neural networks, working together, were able to represent with high fidelity the behavior of a discharge lamp. The excellent performance obtained by these models allowed the simulation of a group of lamps in a distribution system with shorter simulation time when compared to mathematical models. This fact justified the application of this family of loads in electric power systems. The representation of the device facing power quality disturbances also proved to be a useful tool for more complex studies in distribution systems. © 2013 Brazilian Society for Automatics - SBA.

Inferring a weighted elastic network from partial unfolding with coarse-grained simulations

A number of studies have demonstrated that simple elastic network models can reproduce experimental B-factors, providing insights into the structure-function properties of proteins. Here, we report a study on how to improve an elastic network model and explore its performance by predicting the experimental B-factors. Elastic network models are built on the experimental C coordinates, and they only take the pairs of C atoms within a given cutoff distance r(c) into account. These models describe the interactions by elastic springs with the same force constant. We have developed a method based on numerical simulations with a simple coarse-grained force field, to attribute weights to these spring constants. This method considers the time that two C atoms remain connected in the network during partial unfolding, establishing a means of measuring the strength of each link. We examined two different coarse-grained force fields and explored the computation of these weights by unfolding the native structures. Proteins 2014; 82:119-129. (c) 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tool Condition Monitoring of Single-Point Dresser Using Acoustic Emission and Neural Networks Models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gene flow networks among American Aedes aegypti populations

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Stability results for impulsive functional differential equations with infinite delay

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Orientation, building height and sky view factor as energy efficiency design parameters

The energy efficiency of buildings should be a goal at the pre-design phase, though the importance of the design variables is often neglected even during the design process. Highlighting the relevance of these design variables, this research studies the relationships of building location variables with the electrical energy consumption of residential units. The following building design parameters are considered: orientation, story height and sky view factor (SVF). The consideration of the SVF as a location variable contributes to the originality of this research. Data of electrical energy consumption and users' profiles were collected and several variables were considered for the development of an Artificial Neural Network model. This model allows the determination of the relative importance of each variable. The results show that the apartments' orientation is the most important design variable for the energy consumption, although the story height and the sky view factor play a fundamental role in that consumption too. We pointed out that building heights above twenty-four meters do not optimize the energy efficiency of the apartments and also that an increasing SVF can influence the energy consumption of an apartment according to their orientation.

Avaliação de modelos neurais aplicados na estimação de parâmetros da retificação de cerâmicas avançadas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Decay of interspecific avian flock networks along a disturbance gradient in Amazonia

Our understanding of how anthropogenic habitat change shapes species interactions is in its infancy. This is in large part because analytical approaches such as network theory have only recently been applied to characterize complex community dynamics. Network models are a powerful tool for quantifying how ecological interactions are affected by habitat modification because they provide metrics that quantify community structure and function. Here, we examine how large-scale habitat alteration has affected ecological interactions among mixed-species flocking birds in Amazonian rainforest. These flocks provide a model system for investigating how habitat heterogeneity influences non-trophic interactions and the subsequent social structure of forest-dependent mixed-species bird flocks. We analyse 21 flock interaction networks throughout a mosaic of primary forest, fragments of varying sizes and secondary forest (SF) at the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project in central Amazonian Brazil. Habitat type had a strong effect on network structure at the levels of both species and flock. Frequency of associations among species, as summarized by weighted degree, declined with increasing levels of forest fragmentation and SF. At the flock level, clustering coefficients and overall attendance positively correlated with mean vegetation height, indicating a strong effect of habitat structure on flock cohesion and stability. Prior research has shown that trophic interactions are often resilient to large-scale changes in habitat structure because species are ecologically redundant. By contrast, our results suggest that behavioural interactions and the structure of non-trophic networks are highly sensitive to environmental change. Thus, a more nuanced, system-by-system approach may be needed when thinking about the resiliency of ecological networks.

Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdos-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure -systemic risk- quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold T-h ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller T-h), the smaller the systemic risk -for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p(2) -a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochasticthe- systemic risk decreases with decreasing p(2). We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014

Monitoramento da condição da ferramenta de dressagem usando sinais de vibração e modelos neurais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEB