Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Influência dos modelos digitais de terreno na modelagem de circulação hidrodinâmica 2DH: um estudo de caso

Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are numerical representations of a portion of the earth surface. Among several factors which affect the quality of a DEM, it should be emphasized the attention on the input data and the choice of the interpolating algorithm. On the other hand, several numerical models are used nowadays to characterize nearshore hydrodynamics and morphological changes in coastal areas, whose validation is based on field data collection. Independent on the complexity of the physical processes which are modeled, little attention has been given to the intrinsic bathymetric interpolation built within the numerical models of the specific application. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and to quantify the influence of the bathymetry, as obtained by a DEM, on the hydrodynamic circulation model at a coastal stretch, off the coast of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil. This coastal region is characterized by strong hydrodynamic and littoral processes, resulting in a very dynamic morphology with shallow coastal bathymetry. Important economic activities, such as oil exploitation and production, fisheries, salt ponds, shrimp farms and tourism, also bring impacts upon the local ecosystems and influence themselves the local hydrodynamics. This fact makes the region one of the most important for the development of the State, but also enhances the possibility of serious environmental accidents. As a hydrodynamic model, SisBaHiA® - Environmental Hydrodynamics System ( Sistema Básico de Hidrodinâmica Ambiental ) was chosen, for it has been successfully employed at several locations along the Brazilian coast. This model was developed at the Coastal and Oceanographical Engineering Group of the Ocean Engineering Program at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Several interpolating methods were tested for the construction of the DEM, namely Natural Neighbor, Kriging, Triangulation with Linear Interpolation, Inverse Distance to a Power, Nearest Neighbor, and Minimum Curvature, all implemented within the software Surfer®. The bathymetry which was used as reference for the DEM was obtained from nautical charts provided by the Brazilian Hydrographic Service of the Brazilian Navy and from a field survey conducted in 2005. Changes in flow velocity and free surface elevation were evaluated under three aspects: a spatial vision along three profiles perpendicular to the coast and one profile longitudinal to the coast as shown; a temporal vision from three central nodes of the grid during 30 days; a hodograph analysis of components of speed in U and V, by different tidal cycles. Small, but negligible, variations in sea surface elevation were identified. However, the differences in flow and direction of velocities were significant, depending on the DEM

Modelagem do clima de ondas e seus efeitos sobre as feições morfológicas costeiras no litoral setentrional do Rio Grande do Norte

This thesis presents the results of application of SWAN Simulating WAves Nearshore numerical model, OF third generation, which simulates the propagation and dissipation of energy from sea waves, on the north continental shelf at Rio Grande do Norte, to determine the wave climate, calibrate and validate the model, and assess their potential and limitations for the region of interest. After validation of the wave climate, the results were integrated with information from the submarine relief, and plant morphology of beaches and barrier islands systems. On the second phase, the objective was to analyze the evolution of the wave and its interaction with the shallow seabed, from three transverse profiles orientation from N to S, distributed according to the parallel longitudinal, X = 774000-W, 783000-W e 800000-W. Subsequently, it was were extracted the values of directional waves and winds through all the months between november 2010 to november 2012, to analyze the impact of these forces on the movement area, and then understand the behavior of the morphological variations according to temporal year variability. Based on the results of modeling and its integration with correlated data, and planimetric variations of Soledade and Minhoto beach systems and Ponta do Tubarão and Barra do Fernandes barrier islands systems, it was obtained the following conclusions: SWAN could reproduce and determine the wave climate on the north continental shelf at RN, the results show a similar trend for the measurements of temporal variations of significant height (HS, m) and the mean wave period (Tmed, s); however, the results of parametric statistics were low for the estimates of the maximum values in most of the analyzed periods compared data of PT 1 and PT 2 (measurement points), with alternation of significant wave heights, at times overrated with occasional overlap of swell episodes. By analyzing the spatial distribution of the wave climate and its interaction with the underwater compartmentalization, it was concluded that there is interaction of wave propagation with the seafloor, showing change in significant heights whenever it interacts with the seafloor features (beachrocks, symmetric and asymmetric longitudinal dunes, paleochannel, among others) in the regions of outer, middle and inner shelf. And finally, it is concluded that the study of the stability areas allows identifications of the most unstable regions, confirming that the greatest range of variation indicates greater instability and consequent sensitivity to hydrodynamic processes operating in the coastal region, with positive or negative variation, especially at Ponta do Tubarão and Barra do Fernandes barrier islands systems, where they are more susceptible to waves impacts, as evidenced in retreat of the shoreline

A utilização da modelagem física no estudo do desenvolvimento, geometria e cinemática de falhas distensionais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Modelagem semântica de processos industriais com aplicações

The main hypothesis of this thesis is that the deve lopment of industrial automation applications efficiently, you need a good structuri ng of data to be handled. Then, with the aim of structuring knowledge involved in the contex t of industrial processes, this thesis proposes an ontology called OntoAuto that conceptua lly models the elements involved in the description of industrial processes. To validat e the proposed ontology, several applica- tions are presented. In the first, two typical indu strial processes are modeled conceptually: treatment unit DEA (Diethanolamine) and kiln. In th e second application, the ontology is used to perform a semantic filtering alarms, which together with the analysis of correla- tions, provides temporal relationships between alar ms from an industrial process. In the third application, the ontology was used for modeli ng and analysis of construction cost and operation processes. In the fourth application, the ontology is adopted to analyze the reliability and availability of an industrial plant . Both for the application as it involves costs for the area of reliability, it was necessary to create new ontologies, and OntoE- con OntoConf, respectivamentem, importing the knowl edge represented in OntoAuto but adding specific information. The main conclusions of the thesis has been that on tology approaches are well suited for structuring the knowledge of industrial process es and based on them, you can develop various advanced applications in industrial automat ion.

Contribuições ao estudo de modelagem de equações estruturais na avaliação da satisfação do cliente de serviços de comunicações móveis

No mercado de telecomunicações as transformações tecnológicas das últimas décadas aliaram-se a um cenário formado por empresas de alta tecnologia que caracterizam o setor de comunicações móveis pessoais em todo mundo. Neste contexto, as empresas deste setor preocupam-se cada vez mais com a competitividade, oferta de serviços, área de atendimento, demanda reprimida e a lealdade do cliente. Estudos de comportamento do consumidor pesquisam a satisfação e lealdade de clientes como fatores básicos para relações bem sucedidas e duradouras com as empresas. A complexidade das relações entre variáveis na avaliação da satisfação do cliente em comunicações móveis pode ser adequadamente pesquisada com a utilização de métodos estatísticos multivariados. Essa tese analisou as relações causais envolvendo os antecedentes e consequentes associados à satisfação do cliente, no segmento de comunicações móveis, bem como desenvolveu e validou um modelo comportamental do cliente no uso deste serviço, buscando explicar as relações entre os construtos envolvidos: satisfação, qualidade dos serviços, valor percebido, imagem da marca, lealdade e reclamação. Foi estabelecida uma ampla base teórica para avaliar a importância estratégica do modelo que relaciona a influência na satisfação do serviço com as percepções dos clientes e avaliada a precisão deste modelo, por meio de uma análise comparativa a utilização de três métodos de estimação dos seus parâmetros, MLE, GLS, e ULS, com o emprego de modelagem de equações estruturais. Foram feitas aplicações em análises de dados, sendo testada e avaliada empiricamente, a influência do gênero na satisfação do cliente deste setor, além de uma segmentação de mercado utilizando mapas auto-organizáveis e a correspondente validação deste processo, com modelagem de equações estruturais.Os resultados do estudo empírico produziram uma boa qualidade de ajustamento para o modelo teórico proposto, com evidências do estabelecimento de uma adequada capacidade explicativa e preditiva, destacando-se a relevância da relação causal entre a satisfação e lealdade, em consonância com diversos estudos realizados para os mercados de comunicações móveis.