Stock Markets and Household Wealth: Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession in The U.S. Economy?

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds that stock market wealth effects are small, but important to consider, especially if markets are overpriced; this claim is corroborated by evidence from simulation of 'alternative scenarios' and the historical experiences of 1987 and 2001.

Greek shipping and the crisis of the 1980's

In 1982, Greek shipping plunged into a severe crisis: the size of the fleet declined dramatically and over 30% of the fleet was laid-up. catapulting many shipping companies into bankruptcy. The causes of the crisis were: The world recession, leading to regulation, protectionism, subsidization. and the growth of new competition in the tramp shipping market. The erosion of the cost differential between Greek shipping and other maritime nations of the world. The specialization and containerization of the world fleet. The old age and other characteristics of the Greek fleet, which exacerbated the crisis. Greek shipping, with its long history and the expertise, diligence, and supreme opportunism of its dynamic shipowners, will survive the crisis.