Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Psychosocial issues in evidence-based guidelines on inflammatory bowel diseases: a review.

AIM: To study statements and recommendations on psychosocial issues as presented in international evidence-based guidelines on the management of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). METHODS: MEDLINE, guidelines International Network, National Guideline Clearing House and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence were searched from January 2006 to June 30, 2013 for evidence-based guidelines on the management of IBD. RESULTS: The search yielded 364 hits. Thirteen guidelines were included in the review, of which three were prepared in Asia, eight in Europe and two in the United States. Eleven guidelines made statements and recommendations on psychosocial issues. The guidelines were concordant in that mental health disorders and stress do not contribute to the aetiology of IBD, but that they can influence its course. It was recommended that IBD-patients should be screened for psychological distress. If indicated, psychotherapy and/or psychopharmacological therapy should be recommended. IBD-centres should collaborate with mental health care specialists. Tobacco smoking patients with Crohn's disease should be advised to quit. CONCLUSION: Patients and mental health specialists should be able to participate in future guideline groups to contribute to establishing recommendations on psychosocial issues in IBD. Future guidelines should acknowledge the presence of psychosocial problems in IBD-patients and encourage screening for psychological distress.

The potential for tobacco control to reduce PBS costs for smoking-related cardiovaccular disease

Objective: To estimate Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) subsidies for drugs to treat smoking-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) in 2001-02, and over the period of the government's Intergenerational Report (IGR), assuming current smoking prevalence rates and a 5% absolute reduction.

Design and setting: An Australian epidemiological study, using prescribing data, aetiological fraction methodology, and IGR trends.

Main outcome measures: Estimated smoking-related PBS subsidy costs in 2001-02 and predicted cumulative subsidies until 2041-42, under current and reduced smoking prevalence assumptions.

Results: The PBS costs of smoking-related CVD in 2001-02 were $126 million, 9.77% of the cost of drugs for CVD and 2.96% of total PBS subsidies. The cumulative difference in these costs over the 40-year period with a 5% drop in smoking prevalence was predicted to be $4.5 billion, a 17% reduction. The saving would be $1.14 billion discounting future costs at 5% per year.

Conclusions: Further investment in tobacco control interventions could curb the increasing cost of the PBS and contribute to government efforts to ensure the viability of Australia's healthcare-financing programs. The net present value of a campaign to reduce smoking prevalence was estimated at $1 billion, with an internal rate of return of 33%.

Family and carer smoking control programmes for reducing children's exposure to environmental tobacco smoke

Background: Exposure to other people’s cigarette smoke (environmental tobacco smoke, or ETS) is an important child health issue.
Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of interventions aiming to reduce exposure of children to ETS.
Search strategy: The Tobacco Addiction Group register of studies was searched.MEDLINE, EMBASE and four other health and psychology databases were searched electronically, bibliographies of retrieved primary studies were checked and specialists in the area consulted.
Selection criteria: Controlled trials with or without random allocation were included in this review if they addressed participants (parents and other family members, child care workers and teachers) involved with the care and education of infants and young children (aged 0-12 years). All mechanisms for reduction of children’s environmental tobacco smoke exposure, and smoking prevention, cessation, and control programmes targeting these participants are included. These include smoke free policies and legislation, health promotion, social behavioural therapies, technology, education and clinical interventions.
Data collection and analysis: Two reviewers independently assessed studies and extracted data. Due to heterogeneity of methodologies and outcomes, no summary measures were possible and results were synthesised using narrative summaries.
Main results: Nineteen studies met the inclusion criteria, one of which was subsequently excluded. Three interventions were targeted at populations or community settings, seven studies were conducted in the well child health care setting and eight in the ill child health care setting. Twelve of these studies are from North America. In 12 of the 18 studies there was reduction of ETS exposure for children in both intervention and comparison groups. In only four of the 18 studies was there a statistically significant intervention effect. Three of these successful studies employed intensive counselling interventions targeted to smoking parents. There is little difference between the well infant, child respiratory illness and other child illness settings as contexts for parental smoking cessation interventions. The fourth successful intervention was in the school setting targeting the ETS exposure of children from smoking fathers.
Authors’ conclusions: Brief counselling interventions, successful in the adult health setting when coming from physicians, cannot be extrapolated to adults in the setting of child health. There is limited support for more intensive counselling interventions. There is no clear evidence for differences between the respiratory, non-respiratory ill child, well child and peripartum settings as contexts for reduction of children’s ETS exposure.

Is restricting tobacco sales the answer to adolescent smoking?

Background: Enforcement of legislation restricting retail access to tobacco is increasingly relied on to reduce adolescent smoking rates. In 1996, health authorities in the Northern Sydney Health Area began monitoring tobacco retailer compliance (PROOF program) with staged purchase attempts by adolescents below the legal age (18 years).

Methods: Repeat cross-sectional surveys before (1995) and after (2000) the introduction of PROOF monitored changes in adolescent smoking behaviour. Students aged 12 to 17 years from 11 Northern Sydney metropolitan public secondary schools were surveyed for self-reported smoking and tobacco purchasing behavior in 1995 (n = 5,206) and 2000 (n = 4,120).

Results: Between 1996 and 2000, 545 retailer compliance checks found 34% unlawfully sold cigarettes to minors and 28% of these repeated the offence. Nine prosecutions resulted. Modelling revealed a significant association between the intervention and never having smoked (adjusted OR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.01–1.33) although there was no significant association with being a current smoker. The odds of being a smoker were greater for students from coeducational schools, with this effect being modified by gender.

Conclusions: There was no reduction in adolescent smoking with active enforcement of tobacco access laws despite an apparent increase in students who reported never to have smoked.

Does cigarette promotion increase susceptibility to smoking? : a re-test of the link between tobacco industry promotion and adolescent susceptibility to cigarette use

In 1998, using the Index of Receptivity to Tobacco Industry Promotion (IRTIP), it was claimed that tobacco promotion increased youth susceptibility to smoking. Arguably, this claim started the belief that ?cigarette advertising causes smoking? and led to many countries severely restricting cigarette promotion. The problem is, ten years lat... more »er, youth are still lighting up. Could they have gotten it wrong? The IRTIP procedure is widely used to model the link between promotional activities and susceptibility to product use. It is now being used for other products like alcohol, fast-food and colas. This book reports the results of a verification and re-test of the IRTIP model. Using the original data, it was found that IRTIP magnifies Response-Style and Respondent Drop-Out Biases. These biases are shown to lead to the finding of a positive link between tobacco promotion and susceptibility to smoking. Because the IRTIP process is biased, it may be prudent to revisit the many research studies that have used this procedure. The faulty 1998 claim may have harmed efforts to control and limit the use of cigarettes.

Questioning the construct of 'susceptibility' in the causal link between tobacco industry promotion and adolescent smoking

The first article to report on a causal connection between tobacco industry promotion and adolescent smoking (Pierce et al. 1998) had, and continues to have, a significant influence on the marketing of cigarettes in many parts of the world. A key construct in determining causality was the ability to identify the respondents’ “susceptibility to smoke”. Through an analysis of the questions, and reanalysis of the original data used by Pierce et al. (1998), it is shown that the construct is flawed, and needs revision before a causal link can be claimed with the original data.

How well does the index of receptivity to tobacco industry promotion discriminate between smoking and never smoking adolescents.

Tobacco advertising is often named as the culprit that causes children to start smoking (Lancaster & Lancaster, 2003). This belief can partly be attributed to the Index of Receptivity to Tobacco Industry Promotion (IRTIP) developed by Evans, Farkas, Gilpin, Berry, & Pierce (1995). IRTIP was later modified and used by Pierce, Choi, Gilpin, Farkas, & Berry (1998) in a longitudinal study that claimed to have found a causal link between advertising and adolescent cigarette trial. The model is advertised by the American National Cancer Institute (2004) as being able to measure the likelihood of an adolescent starting smoking. Because of Pierce’s causality claim and this endorsement, IRTIP has been widely adopted by tobacco-control researchers. Consequently, the results from IRTIP based surveys have played a central role in influencing tobacco control policy. Based on the logic that a model used to predict the chances of a non-smoker becoming a smoker should be able to distinguish between these two groups, discriminant analysis with dummy coded variables was used to validate IRTIP. The results show that while IRTIP classifies never-smokers well, it grossly misclassifies smokers. This leads to questions about the validity of the model and of studies using IRTIP.

SLC6A4 STin2 VNTR genetic polymorphism is associated with tobacco use disorder, but not with successful smoking cessation or smoking characteristics: a case control study.

The aim of this study was to determine if variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) in the second intron (STin2) of the serotonin transporter (SLC6A4) gene was associated with tobacco use disorder, successful smoking cessation, or smoking characteristics. In this case-control study, patients with current tobacco use disorder, diagnosed according to DSM IV criteria (n = 185), and never-smokers, diagnosed according to CDC criteria (n = 175), were recruited and received 52 weeks of combined pharmacotherapy and cognitive therapy. Successful smoking cessation was defined as exhaled carbon monoxide < 6 ppm. SLC6A4 gene STin2 VNTR polymorphism was assessed using a Multiplex-PCR-based method. At baseline, participants were evaluated using the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence (FTND) and the ASSIST scale.

What is the role of tobacco control advertising intensity and duration in reducing adolescent smoking prevalence? Findings from 16 years of tobacco control mass media advertising in Australia

ABSTRACT
Objective: To examine how the intensity and duration of tobacco control advertising relate to adolescent smoking prevalence.
Methods: Australian students (aged 12–17 years) participating in a national survey conducted triennially between 1993 and 2008 (sample size range 12 314–16 611). The outcome measure was students’ smoking in the previous 4 weeks collected through anonymous, self-completed surveys. For each student, monthly targeted rating points (TRPs, a measure of television advertising exposure) for tobacco control advertising was calculated for the 3 and 12 months prior to surveying. For each time period, cumulative TRPs exposure and exposure to three intensity levels (≥100 TRPs/month; ≥400 TRPs/month; ≥800 TRPs/month) over increasing durations (eg, 1 month, 2 months, etc) were calculated. Logistic regression examined associations between TRPs and adolescent smoking after controlling for demographic and policy variables.
Results: Past 3-month cumulative TRPs were found to have an inverse relationship with smoking prevalence. Low TRPs exposure in the past 12 months was positively associated with adolescent smoking prevalence. However, smoking prevalence reduced with cumulative exposure levels above 5800 cumulative TRPs. Additionally, exposure to ≥400 TRPs/month and ≥800 TRPs/month were associated with reduced likelihood of smoking, although the duration needed for this effect differed for the two intensity levels. When intensity was ≥400 TRPs/month, the odds of smoking only reduced with continuous exposure. When intensity was ≥800 TRPs/month, exposure at levels less than monthly was associated with reductions in smoking prevalence.
Conclusions: Both antismoking advertising intensity and duration are important for ensuring reductions in adolescent smoking prevalence.

Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001–2011

Objective: To determine the impact of tobacco control policies and mass media campaigns on smoking prevalence in Australian adults.
Methods: Data for calculating the average monthly prevalence of smoking between January 2001 and June 2011 were obtained via structured interviews of randomly sampled adults aged 18 years or older from Australia’s five largest capital cities (monthly mean number of adults interviewed: 2375). The influence on smoking prevalence was estimated for increased tobacco taxes; strengthened smoke-free laws; increased monthly population exposure to televised tobacco control mass media campaigns and pharmaceutical company advertising for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), using gross ratings points; monthly sales of NRT, bupropion and varenicline; and introduction of graphic health warnings on cigarette packs. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to examine the influence of these interventions on smoking prevalence.
Findings: The mean smoking prevalence for the study period was 19.9% (standard deviation: 2.0%), with a drop from 23.6% (in January 2001) to 17.3% (in June 2011). The best-fitting model showed that stronger smoke-free laws, tobacco price increases and greater exposure to mass media campaigns independently explained 76% of the decrease in smoking prevalence from February 2002 to June 2011.
Conclusion: Increased tobacco taxation, more comprehensive smoke-free laws and increased investment in mass media campaigns played a substantial role in reducing smoking prevalence among Australian adults between 2001 and 2011.

Family and carer smoking control programmes for reducing children's exposure to environmental tobacco smoke

BackgroundChildren's exposure to other people's cigarette smoke (environmental tobacco smoke, or ETS) is associated with a range of adverse health outcomes for children. Parental smoking is a common source of children's exposure to ETS. Older children are also at risk of exposure to ETS in child care or educational settings. Preventing exposure to cigarette smoke in infancy and childhood has significant potential to improve children's health worldwide.ObjectivesTo determine the effectiveness of interventions aiming to reduce exposure of children to ETS.Search methodsWe searched the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register and conducted additional searches of the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, PsycINFO, EMBASE, CINAHL, ERIC, and The Social Science Citation Index & Science Citation Index (Web of Knowledge). Date of the most recent search: September 2013.Selection criteriaControlled trials with or without random allocation. Interventions must have addressed participants (parents and other family members, child care workers and teachers) involved with the care and education of infants and young children (aged 0 to 12 years). All mechanisms for reduction of children's ETS exposure, and smoking prevention, cessation, and control programmes were included. These include health promotion, social-behavioural therapies, technology, education, and clinical interventions.Data collection and analysisTwo authors independently assessed studies and extracted data. Due to heterogeneity of methodologies and outcome measures, no summary measures were possible and results were synthesised narratively.Main resultsFifty-seven studies met the inclusion criteria. Seven studies were judged to be at low risk of bias, 27 studies were judged to have unclear overall risk of bias and 23 studies were judged to have high risk of bias. Seven interventions were targeted at populations or community settings, 23 studies were conducted in the 'well child' healthcare setting and 24 in the 'ill child' healthcare setting. Two further studies conducted in paediatric clinics did not make clear whether the visits were to well or ill children, and another included both well and ill child visits. Thirty-six studies were from North America, 14 were in other high income countries and seven studies were from low- or middle-income countries. In only 14 of the 57 studies was there a statistically significant intervention effect for child ETS exposure reduction. Of these 14 studies, six used objective measures of children's ETS exposure. Eight of the studies had a high risk of bias, four had unclear risk of bias and two had a low risk of bias. The studies showing a significant effect used a range of interventions: seven used intensive counselling or motivational interviewing; a further study used telephone counselling; one used a school-based strategy; one used picture books; two used educational home visits; one used brief intervention and one study did not describe the intervention. Of the 42 studies that did not show a significant reduction in child ETS exposure, 14 used more intensive counselling or motivational interviewing, nine used brief advice or counselling, six used feedback of a biological measure of children's ETS exposure, one used feedback of maternal cotinine, two used telephone smoking cessation advice or support, eight used educational home visits, one used group sessions, one used an information kit and letter, one used a booklet and no smoking sign, and one used a school-based policy and health promotion. In 32 of the 57 studies, there was reduction of ETS exposure for children in the study irrespective of assignment to intervention and comparison groups. One study did not aim to reduce children's tobacco smoke exposure, but rather aimed to reduce symptoms of asthma, and found a significant reduction in symptoms in the group exposed to motivational interviewing. We found little evidence of difference in effectiveness of interventions between the well infant, child respiratory illness, and other child illness settings as contexts for parental smoking cessation interventions.Authors' conclusionsWhile brief counselling interventions have been identified as successful for adults when delivered by physicians, this cannot be extrapolated to adults as parents in child health settings. Although several interventions, including parental education and counselling programmes, have been used to try to reduce children's tobacco smoke exposure, their effectiveness has not been clearly demonstrated. The review was unable to determine if any one intervention reduced parental smoking and child exposure more effectively than others, although seven studies were identified that reported motivational interviewing or intensive counselling provided in clinical settings was effective.

The hazards of starting and quitting smoking: some Australian evidence

The empirical analysis employs individual level data from the Australian Health Survey combined with retrospective data on tobacco price matched to the age at which the individual started and quit smoking. Split-population hazard models are estimated for both starting and quitting smoking. The analysis suggests price plays a significant role in the decision to start smoking but not in the decision to quit. Further sensitivity analysis of different age groups and an alternative data source, questions the robustness of the significant role of price in the smoking initiation decision. From a policy perspective, the results indicate that increases in tobacco taxation can be an important instrument in reducing the incidence of smoking, but should be combined with other mechanisms such as mandating smoke-free environments and antismoking education. Our results strongly support the targeting of antismoking campaigns towards teenagers.

The effectiveness of callback counselling for smoking cessation: a randomized trial

Aims. The development of acceptable, widely available and effective smoking cessation methods is central to public health strategy for tobacco control. We examined the effectiveness of a telephone callback counselling intervention, compared to the provision of self-help resources alone.

Methods. Participants were 998 smokers calling a state-wide "Quitline" service randomly allocated to either callback counselling or ordinary care. The callback condition consisted of a series of brief counselling calls at strategic times in addition to ordinary care. The number of calls varied according to caller needs, and most occurred generally just before the person's quit day and in the week or two after it. The service was delivered by trained telephone counsellors.

Results. At the 3-month follow-up, significantly more participants in the callback group (24%) reported that they were quit, compared to those in the usual care comparison group (13%). The difference in point prevalence of smoking declined to 6% by the 12-month follow-up. Using sustained abstinence there was a significant benefit of callback counselling at 12-month follow-up. Treating dropouts as smokers reduced the overall magnitude of the effects somewhat. The benefit of callbacks was to marginally increase quit attempts and to significantly reduce relapse.

Conclusion. Our findings are consistent with those of other studies demonstrating benefits of callback telephone counselling to facilitate cessation. Such counselling provides a flexible, relatively inexpensive and widely available form of cessation service. It appears to encourage a greater proportion of quit attempts and to reduce the rate of relapse among those quitting. Further research is required to determine ways to enhance effectiveness, particularly studies of how to reduce relapse.

The effectiveness of personalized smoking cessation strategies for callers to a Quitline service

Aim To assess the effectiveness of a program of computer-generated tailored advice for callers to a telephone helpline, and to assess whether it enhanced a series of callback telephone counselling sessions in aiding smoking cessation.

Design Randomized controlled trial comparing: (1) untailored self-help materials; (2) computer-generated tailored advice only, and (3) computer-generated tailored advice plus callback telephone counselling. Assessment surveys were conducted at baseline, 3, 6 and 12 months.

Setting Victoria, Australia.

Participants A total of 1578 smokers who called the Quitline service and agreed to participate.

Measurements Smoking status at follow-up; duration of cessation, if quit; use of nicotine replacement therapy; and extent of participation in the callback service.

Findings At the 3-month follow-up, significantly more (χ2(2) = 16.9; P < 0.001) participants in the computer-generated tailored advice plus telephone counselling condition were not smoking (21%) than in either the computer-generated advice only (12%) or the control condition (12%). Proportions reporting not smoking at the 12-month follow-up were 26%, 23% and 22%, respectively (NS) for point prevalence, and for 9 months sustained abstinence; 8.2, 6.0, and 5.0 (NS). In the telephone counselling group, those receiving callbacks were more likely than those who did not to have sustained abstinence at 12 months (10.2 compared with 4.0, P < 0.05). Logistic regression on 3-month data showed significant independent effects on cessation of telephone counselling and use of NRT, but not of computer-generated tailored advice.

Conclusion Computer-generated tailored advice did not enhance telephone counselling, nor have any independent effect on cessation. This may be due to poor timing of the computer-generated tailored advice and poor integration of the two modes of advice.