The epidemiology of ecstasy use and harms in New South Wales, Australia

Aims:This paper examines the epidemiology of ecstasy use and harm in Australia using multiple data sources.

Design: The data included (1) Australian Customs Service 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) detections; (2) the National Drug Strategy Household and Australian Secondary Student Alcohol and Drug Surveys; (3) data from Australia's ecstasy and Related Drugs Reporting System; (4) the number of recorded police incidents for ecstasy possession and distribution collated by the N.S.W. Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research; (5) the number of calls to the Alcohol and Drug Information Service and Family Drug Support relating to ecstasy; (6) the Alcohol and Other Drug Treatment Services National Minimum Dataset on number of treatment episodes for ecstasy, and (7) N.S.W. Division of Analytical Laboratories toxicology data on number of deaths where MDMA was detected.

Findings: Recent ecstasy use among adults in the general population has increased, whereas among secondary students it has remained low and stable. The patterns of ecstasy consumption among regular ecstasy users have changed over time. Polydrug use and use for extended periods of time (>48 h) remain common among this group. Frequent ecstasy use is associated with a range of risk behaviours and other problems, which tend to be attributed to a number of drugs along with ecstasy. Few ecstasy users present for treatment for problems related to their ecstasy consumption.

Conclusions: Messages and interventions to reduce the risks associated with polydrug use and patterns of extended periods of use are clearly warranted. These messages should be delivered outside of traditional health care settings, as few of these users are engaged with such services.

Application of epidemiology to change health policy : defining age-related thresholds of bone mineral density for primary prevention of fracture

In Australia, benefits for antifracture therapies have been available for patients with osteoporosis and a prior fracture. No benefits were available to those with no prior fracture. We aimed to define, in women with no prior fracture, age-related thresholds of bone mineral density (BMD) associated with fracture risk equivalent to that of women with prior fracture and osteoporosis. A case-control study of women (≥50 yr) was conducted, including 291 fracture cases and 823 controls. BMD was measured at the proximal femur and posterior anterior (PA) spine. A fracture risk score (FRS) for the group with no prior fracture was calculated with discriminant analysis. The thresholds for equivalent fracture risk between those with no prior fracture and those with prior fracture were assessed using logistic regression. Increasing the FRS to +0.98 in women with no prior fracture resulted in equivalent odds of sustaining a fracture to those with prior fracture and osteoporosis. The corresponding T-score thresholds at the spine were −4.6 at 50 yr, −3.9 at 60 yr, −3.1 at 70 yr, and −2.4 at 80 yr. The femoral neck T-score thresholds were lower by 0.5 standard deviation. The high-risk individuals defined by this study should be considered for primary fracture prevention therapy.

Prospects for epigenetic epidemiology

Epigenetic modification can mediate environmental influences on gene expression and can modulate the disease risk associated with genetic variation. Epigenetic analysis therefore holds substantial promise for identifying mechanisms through which genetic and environmental factors jointly contribute to disease risk. The spatial and temporal variance in epigenetic profile is of particular relevance for developmental epidemiology and the study of aging, including the variable age at onset for many common diseases. This review serves as a general introduction to the topic by describing epigenetic mechanisms, with a focus on DNA methylation; genetic and environmental factors that influence DNA methylation; epigenetic influences on development, aging, and disease; and current methodology for measuring epigenetic profile. Methodological considerations for epidemiologic studies that seek to include epigenetic analysis are also discussed.

Effects of infection-induced migration delays on the epidemiology of avian influenza in wild mallard populations

Wild waterfowl populations form a natural reservoir of Avian Influenza (AI) virus, and fears exist that these birds may contribute to an AI pandemic by spreading the virus along their migratory flyways. Observational studies suggest that individuals infected with AI virus may delay departure from migratory staging sites. Here, we explore the epidemiological dynamics of avian influenza virus in a migrating mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population with a specific view to understanding the role of infection-induced migration delays on the spread of virus strains of differing transmissibility. We develop a host-pathogen model that combines the transmission dynamics of influenza with the migration, reproduction and mortality of the host bird species. Our modeling predicts that delayed migration of individuals influences both the timing and size of outbreaks of AI virus. We find that (1) delayed migration leads to a lower total number of cases of infection each year than in the absence of migration delay, (2) when the transmission rate of a strain is high, the outbreak starts at the staging sites at which birds arrive in the early part of the fall migration, (3) when the transmission rate is low, infection predominantly occurs later in the season, which is further delayed when there is a migration delay. As such, the rise of more virulent AI strains in waterfowl could lead to a higher prevalence of infection later in the year, which could change the exposure risk for farmed poultry. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of generation time and loss of immunity for the effect of migration delays. Thus, we demonstrate, in contrast to many current transmission risk models solely using empirical information on bird movements to assess the potential for transmission, that a consideration of infection-induced delays is critical to understanding the dynamics of AI infection along the entire flyway.

Introduction to epidemiology

Covers historical development of the field of epidemiology, introduces the basic conept of the rate and discusses the concept of risk in the context of population health in light of chronic and infectious disease.

The epidemiology of cryptosporidiosis in New Zealand, 1997-2006

Aims New Zealand has a high incidence of cryptosporidiosis compared to other developed countries. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of this disease in detail and to identify potential risk factors.

Methods We analysed anonymous cryptosporidiosis notification (1997–2006) and hospitalisation data (1996–2006). Cases were designated as “urban” or “rural” and assigned a deprivation level based on their home address. Association between disease rates and animal density was studied using a simple linear regression model, at the territorial authority level.

Results Over the 10-year period 1997–2006, the average annual rate of notified cryptosporidiosis was 22.0 cases per 100,000 population. The number of hospitalisations was equivalent to 3.6% of the notified cases. There was only 1 reported fatality. The annual incidence of infection appeared fairly stable, but showed marked seasonality with a peak rate in spring (September–November in New Zealand). The highest rates were among Europeans, children 0–9 years of age, and those living in low deprivation areas. Notification rates showed large geographic variations, with rates in rural areas 2.8 times higher than in urban areas, and with rural areas also experiencing the most pronounced spring peak. At the territorial authority (TA) level, rates were also correlated with farm animal density.

Conclusions Most transmission of Cryptosporidium in New Zealand appears to be zoonotic: from farm animals to humans. Prevention should focus on reducing transmission in rural setting, though more research is needed to identify which strategies are likely to be most effective in that environment.

The epidemiology of giardiasis in New Zealand, 1997-2006

Aims New Zealand has a higher incidence rate of giardiasis than other developed countries. This study aimed to describe the epidemiology of this disease in detail and to identify potential risk factors.

Methods We analysed anonymous giardiasis notification (1997–2006) and hospitalisation data (1990–2006). Cases were designated as urban or rural and assigned a deprivation level based on their home address. Association between disease rates and animal density was studied using a simple linear regression model, at the territorial authority (TA) level.

Results Over the 10-year period 1997–2006 the average annual rate of notified giardiasis was 44.1 cases per 100,000 population. The number of hospitalisations was equivalent to 1.7% of the notified cases. There were 2 reported fatalities. The annual incidence of notified cases declined over this period whereas hospitalisations remained fairly constant. Giardiasis showed little seasonality. The highest rates were among children 0–9 years old, those 30–39 years old, Europeans, and those living in low deprivation areas. Notification rates were slightly higher in rural areas. The correlation between giardiasis and farm animal density was not significant at the TA level.

Conclusions The public health importance of giardiasis to New Zealand mainly comes from its relatively high rates in this country. The distribution of cases is consistent with largely anthroponotic (human) reservoirs, with a relatively small contribution from zoonotic sources in rural environments and a modest contribution from overseas travel. Prevention efforts could include continuing efforts to improve hand washing, nappy handling, and other hygiene measures and travel health advice relating to enteric infections.

A tale of two parasites : the comparative epidemiology of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis

New Zealand has a higher reported incidence of cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis than most other developed countries. This study aimed to describe and compare the epidemiology of these infections in New Zealand, to better understand their impact on public health and to gain insight into their probable modes of transmission. We analysed cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis notification data for a 10-year period (1997–2006). Highest rates for both diseases were in Europeans, children aged 0–5 years, and those living in low-deprivation areas. Cryptosporidiosis distribution was consistent with mainly farm animal (zoonotic) reservoirs. There was a dose–response relationship with increasing grades of rurality, marked spring seasonality, and positive correlation with farm animal density. Giardiasis distribution was consistent with predominantly human (anthroponotic) reservoirs, with an important contribution from overseas travel. Further research should focus on methods to reduce transmission of Cryptosporidium in rural areas and on reducing anthroponotic transmission of Giardia.

Epidemiology of acute rheumatic fever in New Zealand 1996-2005

Aim: Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and its sequela chronic rheumatic heart disease remain significant causes of morbidity and mortality in New Zealand, particularly among Māori and Pacific peoples. Despite its importance, ARF epidemiology has not been reviewed recently. The aims of this study were to assess trends in ARF incidence rates between 1996 and 2005 and the extent to which ARF is concentrated in certain populations based on age, sex, ethnicity and geographical location.

Methods: This descriptive epidemiological study examined ARF incidence rates using hospitalisation data (1996–2005) and population data from the 1996 and 2001 censuses. Rates were compared by using rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals.

Results: New Zealand's annual ARF rate was 3.4 per 100 000. ARF was concentrated in certain populations: 5- to 14-year-olds, Māori and Pacific peoples and upper North Island areas. From 1996 to 2005, the New Zealand European and Others ARF rate decreased significantly while Māori and Pacific peoples’ rates increased. Compared with New Zealand European and Others, rate ratios were 10.0 for Māori and 20.7 for Pacific peoples. Of all cases, 59.5% were Māori or Pacific children aged 5–14 years, yet this group comprised only 4.7% of the New Zealand population.

Conclusion: ARF rates in New Zealand have failed to decrease since the 1980s and remain some of the highest reported in a developed country. There are large, and now widening, ethnic disparities in ARF incidence. ARF is so concentrated by age group, ethnicity and geographical area that highly targeted interventions could be considered, based on these characteristics.

The epidemiology of the first wave of H1N1 influenza pandemic in Australia : a population-based study

Objectives: Following the recent H1N1 influenza pandemic we were able to describe seropositivity in a repre-sentative sample of adults prior to the availability of a specific vaccine.

Methods: This cross-sectional serological study is set in the Barwon Statistical Division, Australia. Blood samples were collected from September 2009 through to May 2010, from 1184 individuals (569 men, 615 women; median age 61.7 years), randomly selected from electoral rolls. Serum was analysed for specific H1N1 immunity using a haemagglutina-tion inhibition test. A self-report provided information about symptoms, demographics and healthcare. Associations be-tween H1N1 infection, gender, households and occupation were determined using logistic regression, adjusting for age.

Results: Of 1184 individuals, 129 (58 men, 71 women) were seropositive. Gender-adjusted age-specific prevalence was: 8.3% 20-29 years, 13.5% 30-39, 10.4% 40-49, 6.5% 50-59, 9.7% 60-69, 10.3% 70-79, 18.8% 80+. Standardised preva-lence was 10.3% (95%CI 9.6-11.0). No associations were detected between seropositivity and gender (OR=0.82, 95%CI 0.57-1.19) or being a healthcare worker (OR=1.43, 95%CI 0.62-3.29). Smokers (OR=1.86, 95%CI 1.09-3.15) and those socioeconomically disadvantaged (OR=2.52, 95%CI 1.24-5.13) were at increased risk. Among 129 seropositive individu-als, 31 reported symptoms that were either mild (n = 13) or moderate (time off work, doctor visit, n = 18). For age <60, 39.6% of seropositive individuals reported symptoms, whereas the proportion was 13.2% for age 60+.

Conclusions: Following the pandemic, the proportion of seropositive adults was low, but significant subclinical infection was found. Social disadvantage increased the likelihood of infection. The low symptom rate for older ages may relate to pre-existing immunity.