Influence of birth cohort on age of onset cluster analysis in bipolar I disorder

Two common approaches to identify subgroups of patients with bipolar disorder are clustering methodology (mixture analysis) based on the age of onset, and a birth cohort analysis. This study investigates if a birth cohort effect will influence the results of clustering on the age of onset, using a large, international database.

Confidence in Australian institutions 1983-2005

This paper examines changes in the level of institutional confidence in Australia between 1983 and 2005. The principal aim of the paper is to disaggregate the general trend in social trust and overall institutional confidence. Using data drawn from three waves of the World Values Survey undertaken in 1983, 1995 and 2005 we examine whether social trust and confidence have declined and the differing patterns of confidence for different birth cohorts in Australia. The results show a significant decrease in social trust and a large decline in confidence between 1983 and 1995. There was little change in confidence between 1995 and 2005, but social trust returned to the 1983 level over that period. A cohort analysis shows that the oldest cohort, those born before WWII, reported the largest decline in confidence, while by 2005 the baby boomers (or middle cohort born between 1944 and 1955) were the most confident, with the oldest group reporting the least confidence. Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s confidence has been at a much lower level than in the early 1980s.

Low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D is associated with increased risk of the development of the metabolic syndrome at five years : results from a national, population-based prospective study (the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study : AusDiab)

Context: Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration has been inversely associated with the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), but the relationship between 25(OH)D and incident MetS remains unclear.

Objective: We evaluated the prospective association between 25(OH)D, MetS, and its components in a large population-based cohort of adults aged 25 yr or older.

Design: We used baseline (1999–2000) and 5-yr follow-up data of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab).

Participants: Of the 11,247 adults evaluated at baseline, 6,537 returned for follow-up. We studied those without MetS at baseline and with complete data (n = 4164; mean age 50 yr; 58% women; 92% Europids).

Outcome Measures: We report the associations between baseline 25(OH)D and 5-yr MetS incidence and its components, adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, season, latitude, smoking, family history of type 2 diabetes, physical activity, education, kidney function, waist circumference (WC), and baseline MetS components.

Results: A total of 528 incident cases (12.7%) of MetS developed over 5 yr. Compared with those in the highest quintile of 25(OH)D (≥34 ng/ml), MetS risk was significantly higher in people with 25(OH)D in the first (<18 ng/ml) and second (18–23 ng/ml) quintiles; odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.41 (1.02–1.95) and 1.74 (1.28–2.37), respectively. Serum 25(OH)D was inversely associated with 5-yr WC (P < 0.001), triglycerides (P < 0.01), fasting glucose (P < 0.01), and homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (P < 0.001) but not with 2-h plasma glucose (P = 0.29), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (P = 0.70), or blood pressure (P = 0.46).

Conclusions: In Australian adults, lower 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with increased MetS risk and higher WC, serum triglyceride, fasting glucose, and insulin resistance at 5 yr. Vitamin D supplementation studies are required to establish whether the link between vitamin D deficiency and MetS is causal.

The health loss from ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage : evidence from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS)

Background People suffering different types of stroke have differing demographic characteristics and survival. However, current estimates of disease burden are based on the same underlying assumptions irrespective of stroke type. We hypothesized that average Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) lost from stroke would be different for ischemic stroke and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH).

Methods We used 1 and 5-year data collected from patients with first-ever stroke participating in the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We calculated case fatality rates, health-adjusted life expectancy, and quality-of-life (QoL) weights specific to each age and gender category. Lifetime 'health loss' for first-ever ischemic stroke and ICH surviving 28-days for the 2004 Australian population cohort was then estimated. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and sensitivity analyses (SA) were used to assess the impact of varying input parameters e.g. case fatality and QoL weights.

Results Paired QoL data at 1 and 5 years were available for 237 NEMESIS participants. Extrapolating NEMESIS rates, 31,539 first-ever strokes were expected for Australia in 2004. Average discounted (3%) QALYs lost per first-ever stroke were estimated to be 5.09 (SD 0.20; SA 5.49) for ischemic stroke (n = 27,660) and 6.17 (SD 0.26; SA 6.45) for ICH (n = 4,291; p < 0.001). QALYs lost also differed according to gender for both subtypes (ischemic stroke: males 4.69 SD 0.38, females 5.51 SD 0.46; ICH: males 5.82 SD 0.67, females 6.50 SD 0.40).

Discussion People with ICH incurred greater loss of health over a lifetime than people with ischemic stroke. This is explained by greater stroke related case fatality at a younger age, but longer life expectancy with disability after the first 12 months for people with ICH. Thus, studies of disease burden in stroke should account for these differences between subtype and gender. Otherwise, in countries where ICH is more common, health loss for stroke may be underestimated. Similar to other studies of this type, the generalisability of the results may be limited. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were used to provide a plausible range of variation for Australia. In countries with demographic and life expectancy characteristics comparable to Australia, our QoL weights may be reasonably applicable.

Fruit and vegetable consumption and stroke : meta-analysis of cohort studies

Background
Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables has been shown to be associated with a reduced risk of stroke in most epidemiological studies, although the extent of the association is uncertain. We quantitatively assessed the relation between fruit and vegetable intake and incidence of stroke in a meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Methods
We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and bibliographies of retrieved articles. Studies were included if they reported relative risks and corresponding 95% CIs of stroke with respect to frequency of fruit and vegetable intake.

Findings
Eight studies, consisting of nine independent cohorts, met the inclusion criteria. These groups included 257 551 individuals (4917 stroke events) with an average follow-up of 13 years. Compared with individuals who had less than three servings of fruit and vegetables per day, the pooled relative risk of stroke was 0·89 (95% CI 0·83–0·97) for those with three to five servings per day, and 0·74 (0·69–0·79) for those with more than five servings per day. Subgroup analyses showed that fruit and vegetables had a significant protective effect on both ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke.

Interpretation
Increased fruit and vegetable intake in the range commonly consumed is associated with a reduced risk of stroke. Our results provide strong support for the recommendations to consume more than five servings of fruit and vegetables per day, which is likely to cause a major reduction in strokes.

Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables is related to a reduced risk of coronary heart disease: meta-analysis of cohort studies

Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables has been shown to be associated with a reduced risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in many epidemiological studies, however, the extent of the association is uncertain. We quantitatively assessed the relation between fruit and vegetable intake and incidence of CHD by carrying out a meta-analysis of cohort studies. Studies were included if they reported relative risks (RRs) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) of CHD with respect to frequency of fruit and vegetable intake. Twelve studies, consisting of 13 independent cohorts, met the inclusion criteria. There were 278 459 individuals (9143 CHD events) with a median follow-up of 11 years. Compared with individuals who had less than 3 servings/day of fruit and vegetables, the pooled RR of CHD was 0.93 (95% CI: 0.86–1.00, P=0.06) for those with 3–5 servings/day and 0.83 (0.77–0.89, P<0.0001) for those with more than 5 servings/day. Subgroup analyses showed that both fruits and vegetables had a significant protective effect on CHD. Our meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies demonstrates that increased consumption of fruit and vegetables from less than 3 to more than 5 servings/day is related to a 17% reduction in CHD risk, whereas increased intake to 3–5 servings/day is associated with a smaller and borderline significant reduction in CHD risk. These results provide strong support for the recommendations to consume more than 5 servings/day of fruit and vegetables.

Self-reported medication side effects in an older cohort living independently in the community - the Melbourne Longitudinal Study on Health Ageing (MELSHA) : cross-sectional analysis of prevalence and risk factors

Background Medication side effects are an important cause of morbidity, mortality and costs in older people. The aim of our study was to examine prevalence and risk factors for self-reported medication side effects in an older cohort living independently in the community.

Methods The Melbourne Longitudinal Study on Healthy Ageing (MELSHA), collected information on those aged 65 years or older living independently in the community and commenced in 1994. Data on medication side effects was collected from the baseline cohort (n = 1000) in face-to-face baseline interviews in 1994 and analysed as cross-sectional data. Risk factors examined were: socio-demographics, health status and medical conditions; medication use and health service factors. Analysis included univariate logistic regression to estimate unadjusted risk and multivariate logistic regression analysis to assess confounding and estimate adjusted risk.

Results Self-reported medication side effects were reported by approximately 6.7% (67/1000) of the entire baseline MELSHA cohort, and by 8.5% (65/761) of those on medication. Identified risk factors were increased education level, co-morbidities and health service factors including recency of visiting the pharmacist, attending younger doctors, and their doctor's awareness of their medications. The greatest increase in risk for medication side effects was associated with liver problems and their doctor's awareness of their medications. Aging and gender were not risk factors.

Conclusion Prevalence of self-reported medication side effects was comparable with that reported in adults attending General Practices in a primary care setting in Australia. The prevalence and identified risk factors provide further insight and opportunity to develop strategies to address the problem of medication side effects in older people living independently in the community setting.

A prospective analysis of pain experience, beliefs and attitudes, and pain management in a cohort of Danish surgical patients.

Background: 

Association of early childhood abdominal circumference and weight gain with blood pressure at 36 months of age: secondary analysis of data from a prospective cohort study

To assess whether changes in measures of fat distribution and body size during early life are associated with blood pressure at 36 months of age.

The role of social support in protecting mental health when employed and unemployed: a longitudinal fixed-effects analysis using 12 annual waves of the HILDA cohort

Perceived social support is associated with overall better mental health. There is also evidence that unemployed workers with higher social support cope better psychologically than those without such support. However, there has been limited research about the effect of social support among people who have experienced both unemployment and employment. We assessed this topic using 12 years of annually collected cohort data. The sample included 3190 people who had experienced both unemployment and employment. We used longitudinal fixed-effects modelling to investigate within-person changes in mental health comparing the role of social support when a person was unemployed to when they were employed. Compared to when a person reported low social support, a change to medium (6.35, 95% 5.66 to 7.04, p < 0.001) or high social support (11.58, 95%, 95% CI 10.81 to 12.36, p < 0.001) was associated with a large increase in mental health (measured on an 100 point scale, with higher scores representing better mental health). When a person was unemployed but had high levels of social support, their mental health was 2.89 points (95% CI 1.67 to 4.11, p < 0.001) higher than when they were employed but had lower social support. The buffering effect of social support was confirmed in stratified analysis. There was a strong direct effect of social support on mental health. The magnitude of these differences could be considered clinically meaningful. Our results also suggest that social support has a significant buffering effect on mental health when a person is unemployed.

The magnitude of association between overweight and obesity and the risk of diabetes: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

The objectives of this meta-analysis were to examine the magnitude of the relative risk (RR) of developing type 2 diabetes for overweight and obese populations, compared to those with normal weight, and to determine causes of the variation in RR between various cohort studies. The magnitude of the RR was analyzed by combining 18 prospective cohort studies that matched defined criteria. The variance in RR between studies was explored. The overall RR of diabetes for obese persons compared to those with normal weight was 7.19, 95% CI: 5.74, 9.00 and for overweight was 2.99, 95% CI: 2.42, 3.72. The variation in RR among studies was explored and it was found that the effect of heterogeneity was highly related with sample size, method of assessment of body mass index (BMI) and method of ascertainment of type 2 diabetes. By combining only cohort studies with more than 400 cases of incident diabetes (>median), adjusted by at least three main confounding variables (age, family history of type 2 diabetes, physical activity), measured BMI, and diabetes determined by clinical diagnosis, the RR was 7.28, 95% CI: 6.47, 8.28 for obesity and 2.92, 95% CI: 2.57, 3.32 for overweight.

Age and gender differences in the influence of social support on mental health : a longitudinal fixed-effects analysis using 13 annual waves of the HILDA cohort

OBJECTIVES: Perceived social support is associated with better mental health. There has been limited attention to how these relationships are modified by age and gender. We assessed this topic using 13 years of cohort data. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. METHODS: The outcome was the Mental Health Inventory-5 (MHI-5), a reliable and valid screening instrument for mood disorders. The main exposure was a social support scale composed of 10 items. We used longitudinal fixed-effects regression modelling to investigate within-person changes in mental health. Analytic models controlled for within-person sources of bias. We controlled for time-related factors by including them into regression modelling. RESULTS: The provision of higher levels of social support was associated with greater improvements in mental health for people aged under 30 years than for older age groups. The mental health of females appeared to benefit slightly more from higher levels of social support than males. Improvements in the MHI-5 were on a scale that could be considered clinically significant. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of social support for young people may be connected to age-related transitions in self-identity and peer friendship networks. Results for females may reflect their tendency to place greater emphasis on social networks than males.

Impact of early valve surgery on outcome of Staphylococcus aureus prosthetic valve infective endocarditis: analysis in the International Collaboration of Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: The impact of early valve surgery (EVS) on the outcome of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) prosthetic valve infective endocarditis (PVIE) is unresolved. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between EVS, performed within the first 60 days of hospitalization, and outcome of SA PVIE within the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study. METHODS: Participants were enrolled between June 2000 and December 2006. Cox proportional hazards modeling that included surgery as a time-dependent covariate and propensity adjustment for likelihood to receive cardiac surgery was used to evaluate the impact of EVS and 1-year all-cause mortality on patients with definite left-sided S. aureus PVIE and no history of injection drug use. RESULTS: EVS was performed in 74 of the 168 (44.3%) patients. One-year mortality was significantly higher among patients with S. aureus PVIE than in patients with non-S. aureus PVIE (48.2% vs 32.9%; P = .003). Staphylococcus aureus PVIE patients who underwent EVS had a significantly lower 1-year mortality rate (33.8% vs 59.1%; P = .001). In multivariate, propensity-adjusted models, EVS was not associated with 1-year mortality (risk ratio, 0.67 [95% confidence interval, .39-1.15]; P = .15). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective, multinational cohort of patients with S. aureus PVIE, EVS was not associated with reduced 1-year mortality. The decision to pursue EVS should be individualized for each patient, based upon infection-specific characteristics rather than solely upon the microbiology of the infection causing PVIE.

Comparability of dietary patterns assessed by multiple dietary assessment methods: results from the 1946 British Cohort

Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the consistency of dietary patterns assessed through the use of a dietary recall and a 5-day food diary. Design: Participants (n=2265) of a longitudinal study of health and development completed 48-h dietary recall at interview, followed by a 5-day food diary and with the 24 h immediately preceding the interview analysed separately as a 24-h recall. Mean intakes of foods and nutrients were calculated and dietary patterns were assessed using exploratory factor analysis, using the method of principal components. Paired t-tests and correlation coefficients were used to compare the three dietary assessment methods. Results: Five distinct dietary patterns were identified using the food diary and the 48-h recall but were less consistent on the 24-h recall.  Correlations between factor scores on the 48-h recall and the food diary (r=0.13–0.67) were higher than those between the 24-h recall and food diary (r=-0.01–0.59). The recall methods were effective at ranking subjects according to food and nutrient intakes, with the 48-h recall and food diary showing higher correlations in both males and females. Conclusions: This study indicates that a 48-h recall effectively characterises dietary patterns in British adults when compared to a food diary and ranks participants appropriately with respect to most nutrients and foods and is superior to a single 24-h recall. These results have implications for longitudinal studies where maximising response rates to repeat dietary assessment tools is essential.