50 resultados para Uncertainty

em Deakin Research Online - Australia


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Several previous research studies have reported mixed results concerning the direct association between non-financial performance measures and  performance. The presence of environmental uncertainty on this relationship has not been established. This paper makes a contribution to this area by proposing that it is in conditions of environmental uncertainty that non-financial measures are most useful in improving organizational performance. It analyses empirical data from a sample of New Zealand manufacturing organizations to test the hypothesis that non-financial measures of performance would lead to improved organizational performance under conditions of increased environmental uncertainty. Multiple regression analysis of the data suggests that performance should be a declining function of the size of the ‘mismatch’ between an organization's environment and use of the different combinations of non-financial performance measures. Further, the paper concludes that prior mixed results may be attributed to the omission of environmental uncertainty.

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The knowledge economy is a dominant force in today's world, and innovation policy and national systems of innovation are central to it. In this article, we draw on different sociological and economic theories of risk to engage critically with innovation policy and national systems of innovation. Beck's understanding of a risk society, Schumpeter's innovation thesis, and Perez's techno-economic paradigm are used to consider the risk economy, and the broader risk implications of knowledge economy policies and their associated innovation systems. Derrida's theory of haunting provides the methodological framework for our discussion. We use his notion of “hauntology” to conceptualize the risk economy as a ghost that haunts knowledge economy policies and systems. The spectral risk economy draws attention to the inherent instability of the knowledge economy, and challenges the certainty of its economic dogma by offering an alternative perspective. The risk economy problematizes knowledge economy policies and systems by revealing the uncertain and “undecidable” future of social, political and cultural hazards ignored in the interest of commercial gain.

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Originally, the term 'social literacies' was used to suggest the skills, knowledge and processes for addressing multicultural teaching and learning (Kalantzis and Cope, 1983). The meaning of the phrase has since evolved to encompass widely different concepts, including for example, social 'competencies', and/or citizenship education (eg., Arthur & Davison, 2000). Clearly the discourse around 'social literacies' is shifting in response to changing educational policies, both nationally and internationally.

In this paper, we examine how constructs of 'social literacies' have been and might be deployed. Building from a review of the policy, program and theoretical literature, we pose questions concerning how 'social literacies' might be used to interrogate and rework relations, especially those of gender and culture. Questions to be considered include: will the concept of 'social literacies' enable us to better understand the processes of identity and community formations in this era of uncertainty? Which knowledges and skills are identified in the literature and positioned as critical in establishing 'productive' social relations/literacies? Additionally, we begin to theorise the degree to which such constructions of 'social literacies' might enhance and/or limit quality learning at the tertiary levels of teacher education.

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In this chapter I identify and elaborate, from a feminist perspective, upon the theoretical shifts and key concepts that inform sociological analyses of gender and educational organizations. Gender inequalities are embedded in the multi-dimensional structure of relationships between women and men, which, as the modern sociology of gender shows, operates at every level of experience, from economic arrangements, culture and the state to interpersonal relationships and individual emotions. (Connell, 2005: 1801) Even naming this a sociology of gender and organizations is problematic. Many sociologists consider gender as a key sociological concept, but not necessarily from a feminist perspective. Feminism is a multidisciplinary, transnational movement that 'focuses on the relationship between social movements, political action and social inequalities' (Arnot, 2002: 3) and on the everyday experiences of women and girls and how they translate into social and structural 'ruling relations' (Smith, 1988). Feminism takes on multiple trajectories and imperatives in different cultural contexts, although with familial resemblances, most particularly the shared objective of equality for women and girls. Education as a primary institution of individual and collective mobility and social change, but also social and economic reproduction, has long been a focus of feminist theory and activism. So a feminist sociology needs to address this complexity of feminist sociological 'encounters' with gender and organizations.

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[No Abstract]

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This thesis reports on a quantitative exposure assessment and on an analysis of the attributes of the data used in the estimations, in particular distinguishing between its uncertainty and variability. A retrospective assessment of exposure to benzene was carried out for a case control study of leukaemia in the Australian petroleum industry. The study used the mean of personal task-based measurements (Base Estimates) in a deterministic algorithm and applied factors to model back to places, times etc for which no exposure measurements were available. Mean daily exposures were estimated, on an individual subject basis, by summing the task-based exposures. These mean exposures were multiplied by the years spent on each job to provide exposure estimates in ppm-years. These were summed to provide a Cumulative Estimate for each subject. Validation was completed for the model and key inputs. Exposures were low, most jobs were below TWA of 5 ppm benzene. Exposures in terminals were generally higher than at refineries. Cumulative Estimates ranged from 0.005 to 50.9 ppm-years, with 84 percent less than 10 ppm-years. Exposure probability distributions were developed for tanker drivers using Monte Carlo simulation of the exposure estimation algorithm. The outcome was a lognormal distribution of exposure for each driver. These provide the basis for alternative risk assessment metrics e.g. the frequency of short but intense exposures which provided only a minimal contribution to the long-term average exposure but may increase risk of leukaemia. The effect of different inputs to the model were examined and their significance assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. The Base Estimates were the most important determinant of exposure in the model. The sources of variability in the measured data were examined, including the effect of having censored data and the between and within-worker variability. The sources of uncertainty in the exposure estimates were analysed and consequential improvements in exposure assessment identified. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to examine the uncertainties and variability associated with the tanker drivers' exposure assessment, to derive an estimate of the range and to put confidence intervals on the daily mean exposures. The identified uncertainty was less than the variability associated with the estimates. The traditional approach to exposure estimation typically derives only point estimates of mean exposure. The approach developed here allows a range of exposure estimates to be made and provides a more flexible and improved basis for risk assessment.

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The thesis highlights how women reconstruct themselves after mammography, following a positive diagnosis of cancer, and post mastectomy. It juxtaposes women's experiences of breast cancer with doctors' perceptions of their role in treating patients, allowing an understanding of how risk and uncertainty are transferred between the private and public spheres.

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Examines the benefits and dangers of allowing experts to intervene in the lives of youth, and their families, on the basis of assessing them as being at-risk.  Highlights the dangers of expert promises to prevent risk by intervening in people's lives on the basis of what is perceived to be normal or good.

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In this paper, we propose technology uncertainty as a new factor relevant to market collusion. We analyze an infinitely repeated quantity game where, for each firm, the marginal productivity of the input employed in the production process is affected by an unobservable shock. Each firm faces technology uncertainty, measured by the variance of the shocks, in every period. We show that, under both grim trigger strategies and optimal punishments, technology uncertainty enhances cartel stability, suggesting that, in industries characterized by technology uncertainty, the actions of the antitrust authorities should be intensified. We also show that collusion is less likely when technology shocks are highly correlated, implying that regulators interested in deterring collusion should promote the formation of industrial clusters.

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This thesis is concerned with tertiary teachers in a range of disciplines who focus on social justice. It found that current conditions of tertiary education are challenging for teachers and suggested that a "capabilities" approach can provide the basis for attending to professional and ethical issues for tertiary teachers.

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Spirituality has all too often been neglected by both the practices and the profession of education. In these times of great uncertainty the spiritual dimension needs to be developed in order for people to more effectively navigate their way. This paper specifically examines what is understood by 'spirituality' and argues why and how it should be developed. Briefly, this dimension refers to what the meaning of life and one's self-identity are understood to be. Every person can therefore be considered to be spiritual to some extent, not just the religious.

Furthermore it considers that meaning-making, self-identity, choices, decisions and motivation, largely emerge from one's spirituality. By developing this dimension, personal well-being is enhanced and people can gain a more effective understanding of themselves and their world, elucidating what purposes are worthwhile for them to pursue.

There is an increasing interest being given to spirituality mainly from the fields of psychology, the work-place, some aspects of the New Age movement (especially self-help courses) and now also by education. It is argued that spiritual development, which is claimed to be facilitated by philosophical approaches within communities of inquiry, benefits both the learners of educational programmes and also ourselves as researchers.

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Issues such as anxiety, alienation, crises and concerns over self-identity typify this era of uncertainty. These are also recognised themes of Existentialism and have implications for educational practice and research. The purpose of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it aims to clarify Existentialism, as too often it is mistakenly assumed to refer to an atomistic view of the individual, who is able to exercise absolute freedom. This clarification refers primarily to the works of Kierkegaard, Nietzsche and Heidegger.

The second purpose is to present an outline of a particular existential framework. This is mainly structured around the notion of the learner, who is characterised as being in relation, culturally embedded, alienated and a meaning-maker. These attributes have direct implications for the ideal of 'the educated person' - an often-articulated 'aim' of education programmes. Becoming educated, according to this framework, means becoming authentic, spiritual, critical, empathetic, and having personal identity.

A third purpose is to argue how educators may usefully employ such a framework. By engaging with it, educators are able to examine effective pedagogical approaches using notions of 'the existential crisis' and anxiety. In this way, educational curriculums, programmes and policies can also be critiqued using this framework.