Multiple identification and risks : examination of peer factors across multiracial and single-race youth

Multiracial youth are thought to be more vulnerable to peer-related risk factors than are single-race youth. However, there have been surprisingly few well-designed studies on this topic. This study empirically investigated the extent to which multiracial youth are at higher risk for peer influenced problem behavior. Data are from a representative and longitudinal sample of youth from Washington State (N = 1,760, mean age = 14.13, 50.9% girls). Of those in the sample, 225 youth self-identified as multiracial (12.8%), 1,259 as White (71.5%), 152 as Latino (8.6%), and 124 as Asian American (7.1%). Results show that multiracial youth have higher rates of violence and alcohol use than Whites and more marijuana use than Asian Americans. Higher levels of socioeconomic disadvantage and single-parent family status partly explained the higher rates of problem behaviors among multiracial youth. Peer risk factors of substance-using or antisocial friends were higher for multiracial youth than Whites, even after socioeconomic variables were accounted for, demonstrating a higher rate of peer risks among multiracial youth. The number of substance-using friends was the most consistently significant correlate and predictor of problems and was highest among multiracial youth. However, interaction tests did not provide consistent evidence of a stronger influence of peer risks among multiracial youth. Findings underscore the importance of a differentiated understanding of vulnerability in order to better target prevention and intervention efforts as well as the need for further research that can help identify and explain the unique experiences and vulnerabilities of multiracial youth.

Risk factors for violence and relational aggression in adolescence

Analyses examined risk factors for seventh- and ninth-grade youth  categorized as nonoffenders, physically violent, relationally aggressive, and both violent and relationally aggressive. Bivariate and multivariate results showed that relationally aggressive youth were elevated on most risks above levels for nonoffenders but lower than those for youth who were violent alone or violent in combination with relational aggression. Youth who were both relationally aggressive and violent did not differ from those who were violent alone on most risk factors examined. Peer, individual, and family risks were among the strongest predictors.

Analytical relationship between family history and genetic and environmental risks, with application to female breast cancer

It is well established in genetic epidemiology that family history is an important indicator of familial aggregation of disease in a family. A strong genetic risk factor or an environmental risk factor with high familial correlation can result in a strong family history. In this paper, family history refers to the number of first-degree relatives affected with the disease. Cui and Hopper (Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics 2001; 6: 331-342) proposed an analytical relationship between family history and relevant genetic parameters. In this paper we expand the relationship to both genetic and environmental risk factors. We established a closed-form formula for family history as a function of genetic and environmental parameters which include genetic and environmental relative risks, genotype frequency, prevalence and familial correlation of the environmental risk factor. The relationship is illustrated by an example of female breast cancer in Australia. For genetic and environmental relative risks less than 10, most of the female breast cancer cases occur between the age of 40 and 60 years. A higher genetic or environmental relative risk will move the peak of the distribution to a younger age. A more common disease allele or more prevalent environmental risk factor will move the peak to an older age. For a proband with breast cancer, it is most likely (with probability ge80%) that none of her first-degree relatives is affected with the disease. To enable the probability of having a positive family history to reach 50%, the environmental relative risks must be extremely as high as 100, the familial correlation as high as 0.8 and the prevalence as low as 0.1. For genetic risk alone, even the relative risk is as high as 100, the probability of having a positive family history can only reach about 30%. This suggests that the environmental risk factor seems to play a more important role in determining a strong family history than the genetic risk factor.

Family dynamics and the risks for child maltreatment of stepchildren

The thesis examined systemic factors that placed children in stepfamilies at greater risk of physical abuse and neglect by comparing differences between biological- and step-families on a number of known risk factors. A model describing the pathway of child abuse and neglect for children living in stepfamilies was developed to aid in prevention.The portfolio presents four case studies which demonstrate the impact of disruptions to attachment experiences and the sequelae on psychological functioning and how the associated affect dysregulation may be linked to attachment disruptions.

Critical uncertainty factors for efficient risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, commonly referred to as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. Choosing a risk allocation strategy could be viewed as the process of deciding the proportion of risk management attributable to the public and private partners based on a series of characteristics of the risk management service transaction in question. These characteristics can be related to the various uncertainty factors. In this study, uncertainty factors have been grouped into Institutional, Social and industrial, Economic, and Project-specific categories and examined in order to achieve efficient risk allocation and minimize risk management-related costs in a long-term view. Critical uncertainty factors for the allocation of three major risks have been identified through an industry-wide survey in Australia. These identified critical uncertainty factors are expected to help decision-makers from both public and private sectors choose efficient allocation strategies for major risks. Future research directions are also set out.

Critical uncertainty factors for efficient allocation of demand risk in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia

Risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects, which are mainly referred as public-private partnership (PPP) projects, is a challenging job due to the nature of incomplete contracting. Among the various risks that may eventually materialise, demand risk is one of the major challenges that PPPs face. Choosing a risk allocation strategy could be viewed as the process of deciding the proportion of risk management responsibility between public and private partners based on a series of characteristics of risk management service transaction in question. These characteristics are more or less related to the various uncertainty factors. In this study, various uncertainty factors have been examined in order to achieve efficient allocation of demand risk and minimise risk management-related costs in a long-term view. Critical uncertainty factors have been identified through an industry-wide survey in Australia. Future research directions are also set out.

Physical inactivity and other health risks among Australian males in less-skilled occupations

Male workers in less-skilled occupations have higher rates of cardiovascular disease, compared with higher-skilled workers. A representative population sample of Australian male workers was used to compare physical activity levels and selected cardiovascular disease risk factors in less-skilled versus professional and skilled workers. Workers in the less-skilled occupational categories reported significantly more vigorous work and home-based activity than did those in the professional and skilled categories. In multivariate comparisons, cigarette smoking was the only factor that discriminated between the less-skilled versus the professional and skilled employees. Although worksites can potentially provide health-promoting physical activity options for higher-risk groups, our findings suggest that smoking and possibly overweight are risk factors that are more strongly present in less-skilled occupations.

Predictors and risks of body fat profiles in young New Zealand European, Māori and Pacific women: study protocol for the women's EXPLORE study.

Body mass index (BMI) (kg/m(2)) is used internationally to assess body mass or adiposity. However, BMI does not discriminate body fat content or distribution and may vary among ethnicities. Many women with normal BMI are considered healthy, but may have an unidentified "hidden fat" profile associated with higher metabolic disease risk. If only BMI is used to indicate healthy body size, it may fail to predict underlying risks of diseases of lifestyle among population subgroups with normal BMI and different adiposity levels or distributions. Higher body fat levels are often attributed to excessive dietary intake and/or inadequate physical activity. These environmental influences regulate genes and proteins that alter energy expenditure/storage. Micro ribonucleic acid (miRNAs) can influence these genes and proteins, are sensitive to diet and exercise and may influence the varied metabolic responses observed between individuals. The study aims are to investigate associations between different body fat profiles and metabolic disease risk; dietary and physical activity patterns as predictors of body fat profiles; and whether these risk factors are associated with the expression of microRNAs related to energy expenditure or fat storage in young New Zealand women. Given the rising prevalence of obesity globally, this research will address a unique gap of knowledge in obesity research.

Characterization and prediction of issue-related risks in software projects

Identifying risks relevant to a software project and planning measures to deal with them are critical to the success of the project. Current practices in risk assessment mostly rely on high-level, generic guidance or the subjective judgements of experts. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to risk assessment using historical data associated with a software project. Specifically, our approach identifies patterns of past events that caused project delays, and uses this knowledge to identify risks in the current state of the project. A set of risk factors characterizing “risky” software tasks (in the form of issues) were extracted from five open source projects: Apache, Duraspace, JBoss, Moodle, and Spring. In addition, we performed feature selection using a sparse logistic regression model to select risk factors with good discriminative power. Based on these risk factors, we built predictive models to predict if an issue will cause a project delay. Our predictive models are able to predict both the risk impact (i.e. the extend of the delay) and the likelihood of a risk occurring. The evaluation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our predictive models, achieving on average 48%-81% precision, 23%-90% recall, 29%-71% F-measure, and 70%-92% Area Under the ROC Curve. Our predictive models also have low error rates: 0.39-0.75 for Macro-averaged Mean Cost-Error and 0.7-1.2 for Macro-averaged Mean Absolute Error.

Multiple states of financially distressed companies: Tests using a competing-risks model

This study examines the determinants of multiple states of financial distress by applying a competing-risks model. It investigates the effect of financial ratios, market-based variables and company-specific variables, including company age, size and squared size on three different states of corporate financial distress: active companies; distressed external administration companies; and distressed takeover, merger or acquisition companies. A sample of 1,081 publicly listed Australian non-financial companies over the period 1989 to 2005 using a competing-risks model is used to determine the possible differences in the factors of entering various states of financial distress. It is found that specifically, distressed external administration companies have a higher leverage, lower past excess returns and a larger size; while distressed takeover, merger or acquisition companies have a lower leverage, a higher capital utilisation efficiency and a larger size compared to active companies. Comparing the results from both the single-risk model and the competing-risks model reveals the need to distinguish between financial distress states.

Young people's perceptions of the risks of methamphetamine use in Adelaide nightclubs: a quantitative study

Understanding young people’s perceptions of the risks associated with the use of methamphetamines is an important but under-researched area. Precisely how these young people use the space of Adelaide nightclubs, perceive such drug risks, employ risk management strategies and how these factors interact to influence their experience of methamphetamines in the nightclub is largely unknown. This article presents self-report data drawn from a sample of 457 young people who completed the Perception of Risk survey questionnaire while waiting to enter one of five key Adelaide nightclubs in 2010. Participants were examined in terms of gender, age, drug use history, motivations for nightclub attendance and frequency of nightclub attendance. Approximately one-fifth of the sample reported using methamphetamines (21.0 percent).Participants demonstrated a pattern of attendance at Adelaide nightclubs that reflects a broader understanding of the important role of the nightclub in their social lives, which for some also involves the use of methamphetamines. Specifically, participants’ motivations for ‘nightclubbing’ concern the consumption of leisure and are guided by social group membership, in which methamphetamine use is not prioritised, as evident in the development of knowledge and risk management strategies to ensure safe consumption in the club. Perceptions of risk reflect concern surrounding unregulated methamphetamine use, as well as gendered concerns linked to safety and the prevalence of alcohol misuse, violence, drink spiking, physical injury and sexual assault. These findings were consistent across the sample, suggesting a shift in youth nightclub culture that has numerous implications for understanding and reducing the use of methamphetamines and regulation of the night-time economy generally, which are discussed herein.

Sound the alarm: health and safety risks associated with alarm response for salaried and retained metropolitan firefighters

Responding to an emergency alarm poses a significant risk to firefighters' health and safety, particularly to cardiovascular health, physical and psychological stress, and fatigue. These risks have been largely categorised for salaried firefighters working 'on station'. Less is known about the factors that contribute to these risks for the vast number of non-salaried personnel who serve in retained roles, often deploying from home. The present study investigated the alarm response procedure for Australian metropolitan fire fighters, identifying common and divergent sources of risk for salaried and retained staff. There were significant differences in procedure between the two workgroups and this resulted in differences in risk profile between groups. Sleep and fatigue, actual response to the alarm stimulus, work-life balance and trauma emerged as sources of risk experienced differently by salaried and retained firefighters. Key findings included reports of fatigue in both groups, but particularly in the case of retained firefighters who manage primary employment as well as their retained position. This also translated into a poor sense of work-life balance. Both groups reported light sleep, insufficient sleep or fragmented sleep as a result of alarm response. In the case of salaried firefighters, this was associated with being woken on station when other appliances are called. There were risks from physical and psychological responses to the alarm stimulus, and reports of sleep inertia when driving soon after waking. The findings of this study highlight the common and divergent risks for these workgroups, and could be used in the ongoing management of firefighters' health and safety.

A review of vulnerability and risks for schizophrenia: beyond the two hit hypothesis

Schizophrenia risk has often been conceptualized using a model which requires two hits in order to generate the clinical phenotype-the first as an early priming in a genetically predisposed individual and the second a likely environmental insult. The aim of this paper was to review the literature and reformulate this binary risk-vulnerability model. We sourced the data for this narrative review from the electronic database PUBMED. Our search terms were not limited by language or date of publication. The development of schizophrenia may be driven by genetic vulnerability interacting with multiple vulnerability factors including lowered prenatal vitamin D exposure, viral infections, smoking intelligence quotient, social cognition cannabis use, social defeat, nutrition and childhood trauma. It is likely that these genetic risks, environmental risks and vulnerability factors are cumulative and interactive with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability. The development of schizophrenia is likely to be more complex and nuanced than the binary two hit model originally proposed nearly thirty years ago. Risk appears influenced by a more complex process involving genetic risk interfacing with multiple potentially interacting hits and vulnerability factors occurring at key periods of neurodevelopmental activity, which culminate in the expression of disease state. These risks are common across a number of neuropsychiatric and medical disorders, which might inform common preventive and intervention strategies across non-communicable disorders.

Why do hospitalized older adults take risks that may lead to falls?

Background: The behaviour of hospitalized older adults can contribute to falls, a common adverse event during and after hospitalization. Objective: To understand why older adults take risks that may lead to falls in the hospital setting and in the transition period following discharge home. Design: Qualitative research. Setting and participants: Hospital patients from inpatient medical and rehabilitation wards (n = 16), their informal caregivers (n = 8), and health professionals (n = 33) recruited from Southern Health hospital facilities, Victoria, Australia. Main variables studied: Perceived motivations for, and factors contributing to risk taking that may lead to falls. Main outcome measures: Semi-structured, in depth interviews and focus groups were used to generate qualitative data. Interviews were conducted both 2 weeks post-hospitalization and 3 months post-hospitalization. Results: Risk taking was classified as; (i) enforced (ii) voluntary and informed and (iii) voluntary and mal informed. Five key factors that influence risk taking behaviour were (i) risk compensation ability of the older adult, (ii) willingness to ask for help, (iii) older adult desire to test their physical boundaries, (iv) communication failure between and within older adults, informal care givers and health professionals and (v) delayed provision of help. Discussion and Conclusion: Tension exists between taking risks as a part of rehabilitation and the effect it has on likelihood of falling. Health professionals and caregivers played a central role in mitigating unnecessary risk taking, though some older adults appear more likely to take risks than others by virtue of their attitudes.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.