Association between obesity and diabetes using nested linear models

A data source with 7260 cases from the prospective observational study was used. Cases included both sexes and age ranging between 20yr and 7Oyr. Chi-squared tests and linear models were used to examine the effects of age (linear and quadratic), sex, smoking habit (currently a smoker or non-smoker), presence or absence of type 2 diabetes on obesity as measured by body mass index (BMI) and waist to hip ratio (WHR). Both these measures of
obesity were significantly affected by age, sex and the presence of diabetes. Cases with diabetes were significantly more obese (10%) between the ages 40yr to 59yr compared to patients without diabetes. These results accentuate the need to further examine the association between age, diabetes and obesity and other risk factors with cardiovascular diseases.

Partial state estimation for linear systems with output and input time delays.

This paper deals with the problem of partial state observer design for linear systems that are subject to time delays in the measured output as well as the control input. By choosing a set of appropriate augmented Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals with a triple-integral term and using the information of both the delayed output and input, a novel approach to design a minimal-order observer is proposed to guarantee that the observer error is ε-convergent with an exponential rate. Existence conditions of such an observer are derived in terms of matrix inequalities for the cases with time delays in both the output and input and with output delay only. Constructive design algorithms are introduced. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the design procedure, practicality and effectiveness of the proposed observer.

Hierarchial patterns of invertebrate assemblage structure in stony upland streams change with time and flow permanence

1. Studies in several parts of the world have examined variation in univariate descriptors of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure in perennially flowing stony streams across hierarchies of spatial scale using nested analyses of variance. However, few have investigated whether this spatial variation changes with time or whether these results are representative of habitats other than riffles or of other stream types, such as intermittently flowing streams.

2. We describe patterns in taxon richness and abundance from two sets of samples from stony streams in the Otway Range and the Grampians Range, Victoria, Australia, collected using hierarchical designs. Sampling of riffles was repeated in the Otways, to determine whether spatial patterns were consistent among times. In the Grampians, spatial patterns were compared between intermittent and perennially flowing streams (stream type) by sampling pools.

3. In the Otways streams, most variation in the dependent variables occurred between sample units. Patterns of variation among the other scales (streams, segments, riffles, groups of stones) were not consistent between sampling times, suggesting that they may have little ecological significance.

4. In the Grampians streams, variation in macroinvertebrate taxon richness and abundance differed significantly between replicate streams within each stream type but not between stream types or pools. The largest source of variation in taxon richness was stream type. Little variation occurred among sample units.

5. The pattern of most variation occurring among sample units is robust both to differences in the method of sampling and different dependent variables among studies and increasingly appears to be a property of riffles in stony, perennial upland streams. High variation among sample units (residual variation) limits the explanatory power of linear models and therefore, where samples are from a single sampling time, small but significant components of variation are unlikely to represent features of assemblage structure that will be stable over time.

What does mathematics understanding look like?

The concept of mathematical understanding is central to curriculum development, classroom interaction, and the training of mathematics teachers In this paper, some models of the growth of understanding that the literature presents are outlined Some results of a study that documented four primary teachers’ mental models of, and beliefs about, different forms of understanding are reported It is proposed that linear models may restrict ways that these teachers plan lessons Questions for further research are raised

Forecasting inflation, industrial output and exchange rates : a template study for India

This paper reports results from a forecasting study for inflation, industrial output and exchange rates for India. We cannot reject the null hypothesis for linearity for all series used except for the growth rate of the foreign exchange series and our analysis is based on linear models, ARIMA and bivariate transfer functions and restricted VAR. Forecasting performance is evaluated using the models’ root mean-squared error differences and Theil’s inequality coefficients from recursive origin static, fixed origin dynamic and rolling origin dynamic forecasts. For models based on weekly data, based on RMSEs, we find that the bivariate models improve upon the forecasts of the ARIMA model while for models based on monthly data the ARIMA model has almost always better performance. In choosing between the two bivariate models on the basis of RMSEs, our overall results tend to support the use of a restricted VAR, as this model had the best forecasting performance more frequently than the transfer function model.

How socio-economic status contributes to participation in leisure-time physical activity

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to identify individual, social, and environmental contributors (mediators) to individual- and area-level differences in leisure-time physical activity across socio-economic groups. A two-stage stratified sampling design was used to recruit 20–65 year old adults (N = 2194) living in 154 census collection districts of Adelaide, Australia (overall response rate: 12%). Participants completed two surveys six months apart (response rate on the second survey: 83%). Individual-level socio-economic status (SES) was assessed using self-report measures on educational attainment, household income, and household size. Area-level SES was assessed using census data on median household income and household size for each selected census district. Bootstrap generalized linear models were used to examine associations between SES, potential mediators, and leisure-time physical activity. The product-of-coefficient test was used to estimate mediating effects. All SES measures were independently associated with potential individual and social mediators of the SES-activity relationships. Individual- and area-level income was also associated with perceived neighborhood attributes. Self-efficacy and social support for physical activity explained virtually all of the differences in physical activity across educational attainment groups. Physical barriers to walking and access to public open space contributed in part to the explanation of differences in recreational walking across income groups. Yet, self-efficacy and social support were the key mediators of the observed relationships between individual- and area-level income and physical activity. This study suggests that in order to increase physical activity participation in the more disadvantaged segments of the population, comprehensive, multilevel interventions targeting activity-related attitudes and skills as well as social and physical environments are needed.

Are perceptions of the local environment related to neighbourhood satisfaction and mental health in adults?

Background: Perceptions of environmental attributes can influence satisfaction with where people live and mental health status. We examined the association between perceived environmental characteristics, neighbourhood satisfaction, and self-rated mental health.

Methods: We report cross-sectional data from the Physical Activity in Localities and Community Environments (PLACE) study in Australia (n = 2194). Self-report data included socio-demographics, perceived attributes of the environment, neighbourhood satisfaction (NS) and mental health status. Neighbourhood SES was obtained through census data. Factor analysis was used to identify dimensions of NS. Generalized linear models were used to examine associations between NS and perceived environment characteristics and whether aspects of NS were independently associated with mental health.

Results: NS factors identified were safety and walkability, access to destinations, social network, travel network, and traffic and noise. Perceived environmental characteristics of aesthetics and greenery, land use mix – diversity, street connectivity, traffic safety, infrastructure for walking, access to services and barriers to walking were found to be positively associated with these factors. Traffic load and crime were negatively associated. Three NS factors (safety and walkability, social network, and traffic and noise) were independent predictors of mental health.

Conclusions: Neighbourhood satisfaction may mediate the association between perceived environmental characteristics and measures of mental health in adults.

Predicting spatio-temporal distribution for eastern Australian birds using birds Australia's atlas data : survey method, habitat and seasonal effects

Faunal atlases are landscape-level survey collections that can be used for describing spatial and temporal patterns of distribution and densities. They can also serve as a basis for quantitative analysis of factors that may influence the distributions of species. We used a subset of Birds Australia’s Atlas of Australian Birds data (January 1998 to December 2002) to examine the spatio-temporal distribution patterns of 280 selected species in eastern Australia (17–37°S and 136–152°E). Using geographical information systems, this dataset was converted into point coverage and overlaid with a vegetation polygon layer and a half-degree grid. The exploratory data analysis involved calculating species-specific reporting rates spatially, per grid and per vegetation unit, and also temporally, by month and year. We found high spatio-temporal variability in the sampling effort. Using generalised linear models on unaggregated point data, the influences of four factors – survey method and month, geographical location and habitat type – were analysed for each species. When counts of point data were attributed to grid-cells, the total number of species correlated with the total number of surveys, while the number of records per species was highly variable. Surveys had high interannual location fidelity. The predictive values of each of the four factors were species-dependent. Location and habitat were correlated and highly predictive for species with restricted distribution and strong habitat preference. Month was only of importance for migratory species. The proportion of incidental sightings was important for extremely common or extremely rare species. In conclusion, behaviour of species differed sufficiently to require building a customized model for each species to predict distribution. Simple models were effective for habitat specialists with restricted ranges, but for generalists with wide distributions even complex models gave poor predictions.

Maternal plasma ascorbic acid (vitamin C) and risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

Background : Antioxidants, particularly vitamin C (ascorbic acid), have the capacity to influence glucose tolerance. Modification of diet could reduce the likelihood of developing gestational diabetes mellitus.

Methods : In a prospective cohort study of pregnant women, we studied the association of maternal plasma ascorbic acid concentrations, measured at an average of 13 weeks' gestation, with subsequent risk of gestational diabetes. Maternal plasma ascorbic acid concentrations were determined using automated enzymatic procedures. Dietary vitamin C intake during the periconceptional period and early pregnancy was ascertained using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. We fitted generalized linear models to derive estimates of relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results : Approximately 4% (n = 33) of 755 women who completed pregnancy developed gestational diabetes mellitus. Plasma ascorbic acid concentrations were inversely associated with the risk of gestational diabetes (P for trend = 0.023). After adjusting for maternal age, race, prepregnancy adiposity, parity, family history of type 2 diabetes, and household income, women with plasma ascorbic acid <55.9 micromol/L (lowest quartile) experienced a 3.1-fold increased risk of gestational diabetes (95% CI = 1.0 - 9.7) compared with women whose concentrations were > or = 74.6 micromol/L (upper quartile). Women who consumed <70 mg vitamin C daily experienced a 1.8-fold increased risk of gestational diabetes compared with women who consumed higher amounts (95% CI = 0.8 - 4.4).

Conclusions : If confirmed, our results raise the possibility that current efforts to encourage populations to consume diets rich in antioxidants, including vitamin C, could reduce the occurrence of gestational diabetes mellitus.

Genetic and environmental influences on variation in balance performance among female twin pairs aged 21-82 years

Genetic and environmental influences on variation in balance performance were measured in 93 monozygous and 83 dizygous female twin pairs aged 21–82 years (mean age, 50.5 years) in Melbourne, Australia, between 1999 and 2003. The authors administered clinical (Lord's Balance Test and Step Test) and laboratory tests of static and dynamic balance from the Chattecx Balance System with and without distractor tasks. The authors conducted factor analysis and estimated genetic and environmental variance components and heritability (defined as additive genetic variance as a proportion of all variance, after adjustment for age) using a multivariate normal model with the statistical package FISHER. Three factors were identified and adjusted for age. Heritability was 46% (standard error (SE), 9) for the "sensory balance tests" factor and 30% (SE, 9) for the "static and dynamic perturbations" factor. For both factors, the remaining variance was attributed to unique environmental effects. There was no evidence that genetic factors influenced variation in the "dynamic weight shift tests" factor, with environmental effects shared by twins accounting for 38% (SE, 7) of variance. Neither genetic nor environmental proportions of variance differed significantly between twin subgroups by age (≤50/>50 years). An age-related decline in performance measures was found across the whole sample. These results imply that balance impairments may have a heritable element.

Habitual active transport moderates the association of tv viewing time with body mass index

Background: Television viewing time is associated with obesity risk independent of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA). However,
it is unknown whether the relationship of TV viewing time with body mass index (BMI) is moderated by other domains of physical activity. Methods: A mail survey collected height;weight; TV viewing time; physical activity for transportation (habitual transport behavior; past week walking and bicycling), for recreation (LTPA), and in workplace; and sociodemographic variables in Adelaide, Australia. General linear models examined whether physical activity domains moderate the association between BMI and TV viewing time. Results: Analysis of the sample (N = 1408) found that TV time, habitual transport, and LTPA were independently associated with participant’s BMI. The interaction between TV time and habitual transport with BMI was significant, while that between TV time and LTPA was not. Subgroup analyses found that adjusted mean BMI was significantly higher for the high TV viewing category, compared with the low category,
among participants who were inactive and occasionally active in transport, but not among those who were regularly active. Conclusions: Habitual active transport appeared to moderate the relationship between TV viewing time and BMI. Obesity risk associated with prolonged TV viewing may be mitigated by regular active transport.

A heuristic model selection scheme for representing hot flow data using the hot torsion test results

The problem of "model selection" for expressing a wide range of constitutive behaviour adequately using hot torsion test data was considered here using a heuristic approach. A model library including several nested parametric linear and non-linear models was considered and applied to a set of hot torsion test data for API-X 70 micro-alloyed steel with a range of strain rates and temperatures. A cost function comprising the modelled hot strength data and that of the measured data were utilized in a heuristic model selection scheme to identify the optimum models. It was shown that a non-linear rational model including ten parameters is an optimum model that can accurately express the multiple regimes of hardening and softening for the entire range of the experiment. The parameters for the optimum model were estimated and used for determining variations of hot strength of the samples with deformation.

Stable isotopes reveal inter-annual and inter-individual variation in the diet of female Australian fur seals

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of foraging habits of apex predators is central to understanding their role in marine ecosystems and how their populations may respond to environmental variability. In the present study, stable isotope analysis (C and N) of blood was used to investigate inter-individual and inter-annual differences in the diet of adult female Australian fur seals Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus. Positive correlations were observed between red cell and plasma values for δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N (r² = 0.47 and r² = 0.66, respectively, p < 0.001 in both cases), suggesting relatively consistent individual prey choices over 3 or 4 foraging trips. Mean δ¹⁵N values (12.8 to 17.5%) confirm the species occupies the highest marine trophic niche in the region. A significant decrease in plasma δ¹⁵N values, corresponding to two-thirds of a trophic level (ca. 2%), was observed between the 1998 to 2000 and 2003 to 2005 sampling periods. This was associated with a significant decrease in adult female body condition and is consistent with a decline, previously documented by faecal analysis, of the proportion of red cod Pseudophysis bachus, barracouta Thyrsites atun and Gould's squid Nototodarus gouldi in the diet and an increase in redbait Emmelichthys nitidus. While substantial variation in δ¹⁵N was observed within each age cohort, a significant decrease was observed with age, suggesting individual specialisation for particular prey types is evident early in adulthood, but that its composition changes as females age. In addition, generalized linear models indicated body mass had a negative influence on δ¹⁵N, which may reflect larger total body oxygen stores, facilitating individuals hunting cryptic prey of lower trophic level (e.g. octopus) on the sea floor.

Whole grain consumption is inversely associated with BMI Z-score in rural school-aged children

Objective To examine the relationship between intake of whole grains and BMI Z-score in rural children.

Design General linear models and logistic regression were used to examine the cross-sectional associations between whole grain intake and BMI Z-score, prevalence and odds ratios of overweight and obesity. Dietary intake was assessed using the Block Food Screener for ages 2–17 years. Children were classified into three categories according to servings of whole grain intake: <1·0 serving/d, 1·0–1·5 servings/d and >1·5 servings/d.

Setting The CHANGE (Creating Healthy, Active and Nurturing Growing-up Environments) study, an obesity prevention intervention in elementary schools in eight rural US communities in California, Mississippi, Kentucky and South Carolina.

Subjects Seven hundred and ninety-two children attending 3rd–6th grade.

Results After adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, physical activity and state of residence, whole grain intake was inversely associated with BMI Z-score (0·90 v. 0·61 in the lowest v. the highest whole grain intake category; P trend = 0·01). Children who consumed >1·5 servings of whole grains/d had a 40 % lower risk of being obese (OR = 0·60; 95 % CI 0·38, 0·95, P = 0·02) compared with children who consumed <1·0 serving/d. Further adjustment for potential dietary predictors of body weight (fruit, vegetable and dairy intakes) did not change the observed associations.

Conclusions Increasing the intake of whole grains as part of an overall healthy lifestyle may be beneficial for children to achieve and maintain a healthy weight.