Caprice versus standardization in venture capital decision making

This study examined the criteria used by venture capitalists to evaluate business plans in order to make investment decisions. A literature survey revealed two competing theories: 'espoused criteria' where evaluation decisions are based on what venture capitalists say are the decisive factors, versus the use of 'known attributes' that successful ventures actually possess. Brunswik's Lens Model from Social Judgment Theory guided an empirical investigation of several different evaluation methods based on information contained in 129 business plans submitted for venture capital over a three-year period. Data evaluation culminated in the comparison of the percentage of correct decisions ('hit rate') for each method. We found that decisions based on the known attributes of successful ventures have significantly better hit rates than decisions made using espoused criteria. Discussion centered on the goal of achieving consistency in the conduct of venture analysis. Process standardization can aid in the achievement of consistency. Future research will both deepen and broaden insights.

Critical care nurses' haemodynamic decision making

For cardiac surgical patients, the immediate 2-hour recovery period is distinguished by potentially life-threatening haemodynamic instability. To ensure optimum patient outcomes, nurses of varying levels of experience must make rapid and accurate decisions in response to episodes of haemodynamic instability. Decision complexity, nurses’ characteristics, and environmental characteristics, have each been found to influence nurses' decision making in some form. However, the effect of the interplay between these influences on decision outcomes has not been investigated. The aim of the research reported in this thesis was to explore variability in critical care nurses' haemodynamic decision making as a function of interplay between haemodynamic decision complexity, nurses' experience, and specific environmental characteristics by applying a naturalistic decision making design. Thirty-eight nurses were observed recovering patients in the immediate 2-hour period after cardiac surgery. A follow-up semi-structured interview was conducted. A naturalistic decision making approach was used. An organising framework for the goals of therapy related to maintaining haemodynamic stability after cardiac surgery was developed to assist the observation and analysis of practice. The three goals of therapy were the optimisation of cardiovascular performance, the promotion of haemostasia, and the reestablishment of normothermia. The research was conducted in two phases. Phase One explored issues related to observation as method, and identified emergent themes. Phase Two incorporated findings of Phase 1, investigating the variability in nurses' haemodynamic decision making in relation to the three goals of therapy. The findings showed that patients had a high acuity after cardiac surgery and suffered numerous episodes of haemodynamic instability during the immediate 2-hour recovery period. The quality of nurses' decision making in relation to the three goals of therapy was influenced by the experience of the nurse and social interactions with colleagues. Experienced nurses demonstrated decision making that reflected the ability to recognise subtle changes in haemodynamic cues, integrate complex combinations of cues, and respond rapidly to instability. The quality of inexperienced nurses' decision making varied according to the level and form of decision support as well as the complexity of the task. When assistance was provided by nursing colleagues during the reception and recovery of patients, the characteristics of team decision making were observed. Team decision making in this context was categorised as either integrated or non integrated. Team decision making influenced nurses' emotions and actions and decision making practices. Findings revealed nurses' experience affected interactions with other team members and their perceptions of assuming responsibility for complex patients. Interplay between decision complexity, nurses' experience, and the environment in which decisions were made influenced the quality of nurses' decision making and created an environment of team decision making, which, in turn, influenced nurses' emotional responses and practice outcomes. The observed variability in haemodynamic decision making has implications for nurse education, nursing practice, and system processes regarding patient allocation and clinical supervision.

Agent-based hybrid framework for decision making on complex problems

Electronic commerce and the Internet have created demand for automated systems that can make complex decisions utilizing information from multiple sources. Because the information is uncertain, dynamic, distributed, and heterogeneous in nature, these systems require a great diversity of intelligent techniques including expert systems, fuzzy logic, neural networks, and genetic algorithms. However, in complex decision making, many different components or sub-tasks are involved, each of which requires different types of processing. Thus multiple such techniques are required resulting in systems called hybrid intelligent systems. That is, hybrid solutions are crucial for complex problem solving and decision making. There is a growing demand for these systems in many areas including financial investment planning, engineering design, medical diagnosis, and cognitive simulation. However, the design and development of these systems is difficult because they have a large number of parts or components that have many interactions. From a multi-agent perspective, agents in multi-agent systems (MAS) are autonomous and can engage in flexible, high-level interactions. MASs are good at complex, dynamic interactions. Thus a multi-agent perspective is suitable for modeling, design, and construction of hybrid intelligent systems. The aim of this thesis is to develop an agent-based framework for constructing hybrid intelligent systems which are mainly used for complex problem solving and decision making. Existing software development techniques (typically, object-oriented) are inadequate for modeling agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. There is a fundamental mismatch between the concepts used by object-oriented developers and the agent-oriented view. Although there are some agent-oriented methodologies such as the Gaia methodology, there is still no specifically tailored methodology available for analyzing and designing agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. To this end, a methodology is proposed, which is specifically tailored to the analysis and design of agent-based hybrid intelligent systems. The methodology consists of six models - role model, interaction model, agent model, skill model, knowledge model, and organizational model. This methodology differs from other agent-oriented methodologies in its skill and knowledge models. As good decisions and problem solutions are mainly based on adequate information, rich knowledge, and appropriate skills to use knowledge and information, these two models are of paramount importance in modeling complex problem solving and decision making. Follow the methodology, an agent-based framework for hybrid intelligent system construction used in complex problem solving and decision making was developed. The framework has several crucial characteristics that differentiate this research from others. Four important issues relating to the framework are also investigated. These cover the building of an ontology for financial investment, matchmaking in middle agents, reasoning in problem solving and decision making, and decision aggregation in MASs. The thesis demonstrates how to build a domain-specific ontology and how to access it in a MAS by building a financial ontology. It is argued that the practical performance of service provider agents has a significant impact on the matchmaking outcomes of middle agents. It is proposed to consider service provider agents' track records in matchmaking. A way to provide initial values for the track records of service provider agents is also suggested. The concept of ‘reasoning with multimedia information’ is introduced, and reasoning with still image information using symbolic projection theory is proposed. How to choose suitable aggregation operations is demonstrated through financial investment application and three approaches are proposed - the stationary agent approach, the token-passing approach, and the mobile agent approach to implementing decision aggregation in MASs. Based on the framework, a prototype was built and applied to financial investment planning. This prototype consists of one serving agent, one interface agent, one decision aggregation agent, one planning agent, four decision making agents, and five service provider agents. Experiments were conducted on the prototype. The experimental results show the framework is flexible, robust, and fully workable. All agents derived from the methodology exhibit their behaviors correctly as specified.

Security as an element in environmental assessment and decision making

he prominence of global warming as an environmental issue has illustrated the close relationship between natural resources, ecosystems and global security. Whilst environmental decision making often uses techniques such as economic valuation and risk management, the security component is often not considered, at least not from a security analyst’s perspective. Yet environmental security considerations can be global, regional and/or national in impact. Environmental change and policy can effect human health and well being as well as initiating conflict; it can affect the existence of life itself. These aspects are firmly in the domain of the security discipline although the protection of the global ecosystem has not traditionally been considered by those who create security policy. The idea of environmental/ecological security ranges from the eco-centric approach which examines the impact of human activities that impact on the security of the natural systems to the more traditional anthropocentric perspectives that look at varied issues such as conflict caused by natural resource competition and environmental degradation, and the greening of military operations. This paper will assert that the inclusion of the security factor in policy creation and environmental assessments is essential to give richer solutions to these complex socio-economic and ecological situations. Systems theory over the last few decades has emphasised the inclusion of as many perspectives on messy problems as possible to provide truly systemic outcomes. It is posited that the addition of such concepts as threat analyses will produce more effective and sustainable outcomes.

Accounting : a framework for decision making

Thoroughly updated and re-sequenced in response to market feedback, Accounting: A Framework for Decision Making is an ideal first year accounting principles text. Presented in a straightforward style, the third edition focuses on key concepts and illustrates each concept with clear graphical or textual explanations and examples. The latest AASB standards and accounting techniques underpin the content throughout and new and revised questions have been added to the end of chapter material. With an accessible technical focus, Accounting: A Framework for Decision Making has a clear and broad content structure that means the book lends itself to both majors and non-majors courses.

Medical error and decision making : learning from the past and present in intensive care

Background : Human error occurs in every occupation. Medical errors may result in a near miss or an actual injury to a patient that has nothing to do with the underlying medical condition. Intensive care has one of the highest incidences of medical error and patient injury in any specialty medical area; thought to be related to the rapidly changing patient status and complex diagnoses and treatments.

Purpose : The aims of this paper are to: (1) outline the definition, classifications and aetiology of medical error; (2) summarise key findings from the literature with a specific focus on errors arising from intensive care areas; and (3) conclude with an outline of approaches for analysing clinical information to determine adverse events and inform practice change in intensive care.

Data source : Database searches of articles and textbooks using keywords: medical error, patient safety, decision making and intensive care. Sociology and psychology literature cited therein.

Findings : Critically ill patients require numerous medications, multiple infusions and procedures. Although medical errors are often detected by clinicians at the bedside, organisational processes and systems may contribute to the problem. A systems approach is thought to provide greater insight into the contributory factors and potential solutions to avoid preventable adverse events.

Conclusion : It is recommended that a variety of clinical information and research techniques are used as a priority to prevent hospital acquired injuries and address patient safety concerns in intensive care.

Child protection practitioners and decision-making tools : observations and reflections from the front line

Decision-making tools, particularly risk-assessment tools, have been implemented by governments around the world, perhaps most notably in the field of child protection, though little attention has been paid to how practitioners use them. This article presents the findings from ethnographic research that explored how child protection practitioners in the Department of Child Safety, Queensland, Australia, used four Structured Decision Making tools developed by the Children's Research Centre in Wisconsin in their daily practice in the intake and investigation stages of a case. The findings that the tools were not being used as intended by their designers and, in fact, tended to undermine the development of expertise by child protection workers has profound implications for the future development of technological approaches to child protection and, more broadly, human services practice.

A decision-making model to choose business intelligence platforms for organizations

In recent time, technology applications in different fields, especially Business Intelligence (BI) have been developed rapidly and considered to be one of the most significant uses of information technology with special position reserved. The application of BI systems provides organizations with a sense of superiority in the competitive environment. Despite many advantages, the companies applying such systems may also encounter problems in decision-making process because of the highly diversified interactions within the systems. Hence, the choice of a suitable BI platform is important to take the great advantage of using information technology in all organizational fields. The current research aims at addressing the problems existed in the organizational decision-making process, proposing and implementing a suitable BI platform using Iranian companies as case study. The paper attempts to present a solitary model based on studying different methods in BI platform choice and applying the chosen BI platform for different decisionmaking processes. The results from evaluating the effectiveness of subsequently implementing the model for Iranian Industrial companies are discussed.

The client's complex decision-making environment on international mega projects

More than ever before, architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) firms are working on international mega projects. The mega project environment offers a range of opportunities for firms but is but is characterised by a high level of risk and uncertainty. International mega projects bring together networks of people with differing backgrounds and cultures to work in unfamiliar locations to integrate the social, economic, technical and political components of design and construction. Within such an intense environment there is a process of rapid relationship development at an unprecedented level. The interests and power relations on such projects are often very strong given the vast amount of money, jobs, environmental impacts, publicity and national prestige involved. Therefore in a field as costly or consequential as mega project design and construction there is an increased need to effectively manage these projects given the associated high risks of failure. Internationalisation is a relatively new field of research in the AEC sector and past research has tended to focus on explaining the attitudes and behaviour of the industry itself towards improving performance on such projects. To date there has been little research investigating the sophistication of the international client in terms of their regular business environment which is characterised by a set of social, economic and political responsibilities. The values that clients ascribe to their everyday practices and experiences inevitably condition how they act economically, which in turn impacts upon project decision-making. Clients establish the structural organisation of project teams through the procurement strategy and establish the context for effective decision-making. To a large extent they establish a unique culture that project team members need to work within and make decisions. Since clients establish the context within which firms operate the findings of past studies on the industry’s position and attitudes are more indicative than enlightening. Clients occupy a distinctly different position in the construction supply chain and therefore experience and respond to project matters based upon their environment and not the construction industry environment. Clients are confronted with uncertainties and need support to help them understand the critical role that they play in creating good decision-making environments. This theoretical paper seeks to develop a rationale for studying the client’s complex decision-making environment on international mega projects. Specifically it charts the quest for improved industry performance through client leadership as documented in various industry and government publications since the 1940s and highlights that there has been considerable attention to address industry problems through client leadership, however, with little evidence that the issues have been resolved. This paper is positioned within a PhD study, which seeks to move beyond the aspirations of policymakers and idealistic descriptions of how clients ought to behave to explain the reality of what really happens on mega project client decision-making based upon a critique of cultural political economy.

Client leadership capacity on international projects : exploring the client's complex decision-making environment through a critical cultural political economy lens

The global construction environment offers stakeholders a range of opportunities but is characterised by a high level of risks and uncertainty. Internationalisation is a relatively new field of research in the AEC sector and past research has largely focused on explaining the behaviour of the industry itself. To date there has been little research investigating the client's leadership role. Much effort has been placed on positioning clients towards overall industry performance improvement, however, with little emphasis on the client's capacity to undertake their role. Clients establish the decision-making environment through key early critical decisions including procurement strategy and team membership. To a large extent they establish a unique culture that project team members need to work within and make decisions, which is the social and cultural embedding of the economic activities on projects. This theoretical paper is positioned within a PhD study which undertakes a cultural political economy perspective to investigate the client's central role in setting the boundaries within which decisions affecting budgets, quality, design, project organisational structure and team membership throughout the project lifecycle come to be made. A conceptual model for client leadership on international projects is developed based upon two contextual indicators which seeks to describe and explain the economic decisions clients make, which are deeply embedded in social relationships, shared meanings and cultural norms and the associated power and influence clients have on the political economy of international design and construction practice. This paper also seeks to develop a research question for future empirical testing.

Morals, rights and practice in the human services : effective and fair decision-making in health, social care and criminal justice

Provides a synthesis of human rights theory and human services practice and offers a rights based model to aid professional decision making and practice.

Common sense versus intuition in management decision-making

The increasingly complex organisational environment has made certainty in decision-making difficult. Sometimes careful consideration comes before decisions, but sometimes rushed decisions are made. Successful outcomes can often follow from either process, but exactly why each approach works needs to be examined. A return to the epistemological bases of common sense and intuition can help to clarify the decision process for managers in the current environment. The paper starts with perspectives on the similarities and differences between common sense and intuition, drills down to the rational and empirical foundations of each, and then introduces a decision-making matrix that portrays the conceptual basis of intuition and common sense in the actions and reactions of the decision-makers. Primarily, this is a theoretical paper incorporating literature review and authors’ analysis of the interaction of common sense and intuition when making decisions. We conclude that it is pertinent to accept intuition as a valuable complement to common sense, and it is anticipated that the different perspective can facilitate the merging of critical countervailing concepts in the management decision-making process.

Consumer decision making in telecommunications

The data analyses consumers' decision making processes in the telecommunications market. The dataset includes both autoethnographic videographies and experimental quantitative data.

The data comprises an extended autoethnographic methodology with 22 participants. Participants recorded video diaries, written diaries and extended interviews about their experiences looking for a mobile phone service. It also includes a quantitative experiment with 517 participants to examine, under close to real conditions, how consumers make decisions. This involved advertising and sales scenarios looking at the effect of bundling and limited time offers in advertising on consumer perceptions and purchase intentions; the effect of unit pricing and the presentation of terms and conditions information in advertising on consumer perceptions and purchase intentions; and the effect of information and the mode of its presentation in personal selling on consumers’ perceptions.