Effectiveness of evolutionary algorithms for optimization of heat exchangers

This paper comprehensively investigates performance of evolutionary algorithms for design optimization of shell and tube heat exchangers (STHX). Genetic algorithm (GA), firefly algorithm (FA), and cuckoo search (CS) method are implemented for finding the optimal values for seven key design variables of the STHX model. ε-NTU method and Bell-Delaware procedure are used for thermal modeling of STHX and calculation of shell side heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop. The purpose of STHX optimization is to maximize its thermal efficiency. Obtained results for several simulation optimizations indicate that GA is unable to find permissible and optimal solutions in the majority of cases. In contrast, design variables found by FA and CS always lead to maximum STHX efficiency. Also computational requirements of CS method are significantly less than FA method. As per optimization results, maximum efficiency (83.8%) can be achieved using several design configurations. However, these designs are bearing different dollar costs. Also it is found that the behavior of the majority of decision variables remains consistent in different runs of the FA and CS optimization processes.

Improving the quality of prediction intervals through optimal aggregation

Neural networks (NNs) are an effective tool to model nonlinear systems. However, their forecasting performance significantly drops in the presence of process uncertainties and disturbances. NN-based prediction intervals (PIs) offer an alternative solution to appropriately quantify uncertainties and disturbances associated with point forecasts. In this paper, an NN ensemble procedure is proposed to construct quality PIs. A recently developed lower-upper bound estimation method is applied to develop NN-based PIs. Then, constructed PIs from the NN ensemble members are combined using a weighted averaging mechanism. Simulated annealing and a genetic algorithm are used to optimally adjust the weights for the aggregation mechanism. The proposed method is examined for three different case studies. Simulation results reveal that the proposed method improves the average PI quality of individual NNs by 22%, 18%, and 78% for the first, second, and third case studies, respectively. The simulation study also demonstrates that a 3%-4% improvement in the quality of PIs can be achieved using the proposed method compared to the simple averaging aggregation method.

A new two-stage fuzzy inference system-based approach to prioritize failures in failure mode and effect analysis

This paper presents a new Fuzzy Inference System (FIS)-based Risk Priority Number (RPN) model for the prioritization of failures in Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). In FMEA, the monotonicity property of the RPN scores is important. To maintain the monotonicity property of an FIS-based RPN model, a complete and monotonically-ordered fuzzy rule base is necessary. However, it is impractical to gather all (potentially a large number of) fuzzy rules from FMEA users. In this paper, we introduce a new two-stage approach to reduce the number of fuzzy rules that needs to be gathered, and to satisfy the monotonicity property. In stage-1, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to search for a small set of fuzzy rules to be gathered from FMEA users. In stage-2, the remaining fuzzy rules are deduced approximately by a monotonicity-preserving similarity reasoning scheme. The monotonicity property is exploited as additional qualitative information for constructing the FIS-based RPN model. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed approach, a real case study with information collected from a semiconductor manufacturing plant is conducted. The outcomes indicate that the proposed approach is effective in developing an FIS-based RPN model with only a small set of fuzzy rules, which is able to satisfy the monotonicity property for prioritization of failures in FMEA.

Multi-output interval type-2 fuzzy logic system for protein secondary structure prediction

A new multi-output interval type-2 fuzzy logic system (MOIT2FLS) is introduced for protein secondary structure prediction in this paper. Three outputs of the MOIT2FLS correspond to three structure classes including helix, strand (sheet) and coil. Quantitative properties of amino acids are employed to characterize twenty amino acids rather than the widely used computationally expensive binary encoding scheme. Three clustering tasks are performed using the adaptive vector quantization method to construct an equal number of initial rules for each type of secondary structure. Genetic algorithm is applied to optimally adjust parameters of the MOIT2FLS. The genetic fitness function is designed based on the Q3 measure. Experimental results demonstrate the dominance of the proposed approach against the traditional methods that are Chou-Fasman method, Garnier-Osguthorpe-Robson method, and artificial neural network models.

Stochastic optimization models for energy management in carbonization process of carbon fiber production

Industrial producers face the task of optimizing production process in an attempt to achieve the desired quality such as mechanical properties with the lowest energy consumption. In industrial carbon fiber production, the fibers are processed in bundles containing (batches) several thousand filaments and consequently the energy optimization will be a stochastic process as it involves uncertainty, imprecision or randomness. This paper presents a stochastic optimization model to reduce energy consumption a given range of desired mechanical properties. Several processing condition sets are developed and for each set of conditions, 50 samples of fiber are analyzed for their tensile strength and modulus. The energy consumption during production of the samples is carefully monitored on the processing equipment. Then, five standard distribution functions are examined to determine those which can best describe the distribution of mechanical properties of filaments. To verify the distribution goodness of fit and correlation statistics, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is used. In order to estimate the selected distribution (Weibull) parameters, the maximum likelihood, least square and genetic algorithm methods are compared. An array of factors including the sample size, the confidence level, and relative error of estimated parameters are used for evaluating the tensile strength and modulus properties. The energy consumption and N2 gas cost are modeled by Convex Hull method. Finally, in order to optimize the carbon fiber production quality and its energy consumption and total cost, mixed integer linear programming is utilized. The results show that using the stochastic optimization models, we are able to predict the production quality in a given range and minimize the energy consumption of its industrial process.

Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.