Cost-effectiveness of fiscal policies to prevent obesity

Cost-effective, sustainable strategies are urgently required to curb the global obesity epidemic. To date, fiscal policies such as taxes and subsidies have been driven largely by imperatives to raise revenue or increase supply, rather than to change population behaviours. This paper reviews the economic evaluation literature around the use of fiscal policies to prevent obesity. The cost-effectiveness literature is limited, and more robust economic evaluation studies are required. However, uncertainty and gaps in the effectiveness evidence base need to be addressed first: more studies are needed that collect ‘real-world’ empirical data, and larger studies with more robust designs and longer follow-up timeframes are required. Reliability of cross-price elasticity data needs to be investigated, and greater consideration given to moderators of intervention effects and the sustainability of outcomes. Economic evaluations should adopt a societal perspective, incorporate a broader spectrum of economic costs and consider other factors likely to affect the implementation of fiscal measures. The paucity of recent cost-effectiveness studies means that definitive conclusions about the value for money of fiscal policies for obesity prevention cannot yet be drawn. However, as in other public health areas such as alcohol and tobacco, early indications are that population-level fiscal policies are likely to be potentially effective and cost-saving.

Modeling propagation dynamics of social network worms

Social network worms, such as email worms and facebook worms, pose a critical security threat to the Internet. Modeling their propagation dynamics is essential to predict their potential damages and develop countermeasures. Although several analytical models have been proposed for modeling propagation dynamics of social network worms, there are two critical problems unsolved: temporal dynamics and spatial dependence. First, previous models have not taken into account the different time periods of Internet users checking emails or social messages, namely, temporal dynamics. Second, the problem of spatial dependence results from the improper assumption that the states of neighboring nodes are independent. These two problems seriously affect the accuracy of the previous analytical models. To address these two problems, we propose a novel analytical model. This model implements a spatial-temporal synchronization process, which is able to capture the temporal dynamics. Additionally, we find the essence of spatial dependence is the spreading cycles. By eliminating the effect of these cycles, our model overcomes the computational challenge of spatial dependence and provides a stronger approximation to the propagation dynamics. To evaluate our susceptible-infectious-immunized (SII) model, we conduct both theoretical analysis and extensive simulations. Compared with previous epidemic models and the spatial-temporal model, the experimental results show our SII model achieves a greater accuracy. We also compare our model with the susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious- recovered models. The results show that our model is more suitable for modeling the propagation of social network worms.

Progress on obesity prevention over 20 years in Australia and New Zealand

The lessons learned from over 20 years of obesity prevention efforts in Australia and New Zealand are presented. The obesity epidemic started in the 1980s but poor monitoring systems meant the rise in obesity prevalence initially went undetected. In the 1990s, experts started advocating for government action; however, it was the rapid increase in media reports on obesity in the early 2000s which created the pressure for action. Several, comprehensive reports produced some programme investment but no regulatory policies were implemented. The powerful food industry lobby ensured this lack of policies on front-of-pack food labelling, restrictions on unhealthy food marketing to children, or taxes on unhealthy foods. The New Zealand government even backpedalled by rescinding healthy school food guidelines and withdrawing funding for the comprehensive national obesity strategy. In 2007, Australian Governments started a major long term-investment in preventive health in order to improve economic productivity. Other positive initiatives, especially in Australia, were: the establishment of several advocacy organizations; successful, long-term, whole-of-community projects reducing childhood obesity; a national knowledge exchange system for practitioners; and some innovative programmes and social marketing. However, despite multiple reports and strong advocacy, key recommended regulatory policies remain unimplemented, largely due to the private sector interests dominating public policy development.

Diabetes and risk of physical disability in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background
According to previous reports, the risk of disability as a result of diabetes varies from none to double. Disability is an important measure of health and an estimate of the risk of disability as a result of diabetes is crucial in view of the global diabetes epidemic. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate this risk.

Methods
We searched Ovid, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature up to Aug 8, 2012. We included studies of adults that compared the risk of disability—as measured by activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), or mobility—in people with and without any type of diabetes. We excluded studies of subpopulations with specific illnesses or of people in nursing homes. From the studies, we recorded population characteristics, how diabetes was diagnosed (by doctor or self-reported), domain and definition of disability, and risk estimates for disability. We calculated pooled estimates by disability type and type of risk estimate (odds ratio [OR] or risk ratio [RR]).

Results
Our systematic review returned 3224 results, from which 26 studies were included in our meta-analyses. Diabetes increased the risk of mobility disability (15 studies; OR 1·71, 95% CI 1·53—1·91; RR 1·51, 95% CI 1·38—1·64), of IADL disability (ten studies; OR 1·65, 95% CI 1·55—1·74), and of ADL disability (16 studies; OR 1·82, 95% CI 1·63—2·04; RR 1·82, 95% CI 1·40—2·36).

Interpretation
Diabetes is associated with a strong increase in the risk of physical disability. Efforts to promote healthy ageing should account for this risk through prevention and management of diabetes.

Funding
Monash University, Baker IDI Bright Sparks Foundation, Australian Postgraduate Award, VicHealth, National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council, Victorian Government.

Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model

Background
Clinicians and policy makers need the ability to predict quantitatively how childhood bodyweight will respond to obesity interventions.

Methods
We developed and validated a mathematical model of childhood energy balance that accounts for healthy growth and development of obesity, and that makes quantitative predictions about weight-management interventions. The model was calibrated to reference body composition data in healthy children and validated by comparing model predictions with data other than those used to build the model.

Findings
The model accurately simulated the changes in body composition and energy expenditure reported in reference data during healthy growth, and predicted increases in energy intake from ages 5—18 years of roughly 1200 kcal per day in boys and 900 kcal per day in girls. Development of childhood obesity necessitated a substantially greater excess energy intake than for development of adult obesity. Furthermore, excess energy intake in overweight and obese children calculated by the model greatly exceeded the typical energy balance calculated on the basis of growth charts. At the population level, the excess weight of US children in 2003—06 was associated with a mean increase in energy intake of roughly 200 kcal per day per child compared with similar children in 1971—74. The model also suggests that therapeutic windows when children can outgrow obesity without losing weight might exist, especially during periods of high growth potential in boys who are not severely obese.

Interpretation
This model quantifies the energy excess underlying obesity and calculates the necessary intervention magnitude to achieve bodyweight change in children. Policy makers and clinicians now have a quantitative technique for understanding the childhood obesity epidemic and planning interventions to control it.

Funding
Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Comparative study of routing protocols for opportunistic networks

Opportunistic networks or OppNets refer to a number of wireless nodes opportunistically communicating with each other in a form of “Store-Carry-Forward”. This occurs when they come into contact with each other without proper network infrastructure. In OppNets there is no end-to-end connection between the source node and the destination node. OppNets grow from a single node (seed) to become large networks by inviting new nodes (helpers) to join the network. Due to these characteristics, OppNets are subject to real routing challenges. In this paper, we have presented an overview of the main available three families of OppNet routing protocols. Further, we have evaluated one protocol from each family (Epidemic, Direct Delivery and PRoPHET) in terms of complexity and scalability. Simulation results show that for small and medium complexity, the three protocols perform better than large complexity. As for scalability, simulation results show that Epidemic and PRoPHET perform better than Direct Delivery in terms of delivery rates and delays, but at a very high cost while Direct Delivery achieved lower delivery rates with a low cost.

Developmental origins of obesity and the metabolic syndrome : the role of maternal obesity

Obesity and its sequelae may prove to be the greatest threat to human lifestyle and health in the developed world this century. The so called obesity epidemic has seen the incidence of obesity and overweight almost double in Western societies and the trend is mirrored in nations that are transitioning to first world economies. There is no doubt that much of the rise in obesity can be attributed to lifestyle factors such as the excess consumption of energy-dense foods and the decline in physical activity. However, the ‘fetal origins’hypothesis, first proposed by Barker and colleagues and elaborated by several groups over the past 15 years to be termed the ‘Developmental Origins of Adult Health and Disease’ (DOHaD), provides an alternative explanation for the rising rates of obesity. The DOHaD hypothesis states that exposure to an unfavourable environment during development (either in utero or in the early postnatal period) programmes changes in fetal or neonatal development such that the individual is then at greater risk of developing adulthood disease. This chapter discusses the effects of maternal obesity on fetal development and birth outcomes as well as the manner in which DOHaD may contribute to the obesity epidemic.

Results from Australia's 2014 report card on physical activity for children and youth

Background: 

Nutritional psychiatry research: an emerging discipline and its intersection with global urbanization, environmental challenges and the evolutionary mismatch

In 21st-century public health, rapid urbanization and mental health disorders are a growing global concern. The relationship between diet, brain function and the risk of mental disorders has been the subject of intense research in recent years. In this review, we examine some of the potential socioeconomic and environmental challenges detracting from the traditional dietary patterns that might otherwise support positive mental health. In the context of urban expansion, climate change, cultural and technological changes and the global industrialization and ultraprocessing of food, findings related to nutrition and mental health are connected to some of the most pressing issues of our time. The research is also of relevance to matters of biophysiological anthropology. We explore some aspects of a potential evolutionary mismatch between our ancestral past (Paleolithic, Neolithic) and the contemporary nutritional environment. Changes related to dietary acid load, advanced glycation end products and microbiota (via dietary choices and cooking practices) may be of relevance to depression, anxiety and other mental disorders. In particular, the results of emerging studies demonstrate the importance of prenatal and early childhood dietary practices within the developmental origins of health and disease concept. There is still much work to be done before these population studies and their mirrored advances in bench research can provide translation to clinical medicine and public health policy. However, the clear message is that in the midst of a looming global epidemic, we ignore nutrition at our peril.

Can primary care team-based transition to insulin improve outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes: the stepping up to insulin cluster randomized controlled trial protocol

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) brings significant human and healthcare costs. Its progressive nature means achieving normoglycaemia is increasingly difficult, yet critical to avoiding long term vascular complications. Nearly one-half of people with T2D have glycaemic levels out of target. Insulin is effective in achieving glycaemic targets, yet initiation of insulin is often delayed, particularly in primary care. Given limited access to specialist resources and the size of the diabetes epidemic, primary care is where insulin initiation must become part of routine practice. This would also support integrated holistic care for people with diabetes. Our Stepping Up Program is based on a general practitioner (GP) and practice nurse (PN) model of care supported appropriately by endocrinologists and credentialed diabetes educator-registered nurses. Pilot work suggests the model facilitates integration of the technical work of insulin initiation within ongoing generalist care.

'I'm not a druggie, I'm just a diabetic': a qualitative study of stigma from the perspective of adults with type 1 diabetes

While health-related stigma has been the subject of considerable research in other conditions (eg, HIV/AIDS, obesity), it has not received substantial attention in diabetes. Our aim was to explore perceptions and experiences of diabetes-related stigma from the perspective of adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM).

Early career teacher attrition: new thoughts on an intractable problem

Early career exit from teaching has reached epidemic proportions and appears intractable. Previous attempts to find solutions are yet to make much of an inroad. The aim of the research was to discover what nine beginning teachers required to remain in the classroom, by adopting a phenomenological approach. The authors identified participants’ common experiences through semi-structured interviews and unprompted written narratives. Data were examined for trustworthiness by reference to the literature. Key words from the narratives were synonyms, or broadly synonymous with, optimism, arrested development or disillusionment. The process of leaving involved entry, characterised by optimism; early experiences, characterised by arrested development; pre-exit, characterised by disillusionment; and exit.

Effectiveness and implementation of an obesity prevention intervention: the HeLP-her Rural cluster randomised controlled trial

To impact on the obesity epidemic, interventions that prevent weight gain across populations are urgently needed. However, even the most efficacious interventions will have little impact on obesity prevention unless they are successfully implemented in diverse populations and settings. Implementation research takes isolated efficacy studies into practice and policy and is particularly important in obesity prevention where there is an urgent need to accelerate the evidence to practice cycle. Despite the recognised need, few obesity prevention interventions have been implemented in real life settings and to our knowledge rarely target rural communities.

Smartphone malware and its propagation modeling : A survey

Smartphones are pervasively used in society, and have been both the target and victim of malware writers. Motivated by the significant threat that presents to legitimate users, we survey the current smartphone malware status and their propagation models. The content of this paper is presented in two parts. In the first part, we review the short history of mobile malware evolution since 2004, and then list the classes of mobile malware and their infection vectors. At the end of the first part, we enumerate the possible damage caused by smartphone malware. In the second part, we focus on smartphone malware propagation modeling. In order to understand the propagation behavior of smartphone malware, we recall generic epidemic models as a foundation for further exploration. We then extensively survey the smartphone malware propagation models. At the end of this paper, we highlight issues of the current smartphone malware propagation models and discuss possible future trends based on our understanding of this topic. © © 2014 IEEE.