Safeguarding Australia from cyber-terrorism : a proposed cyber-terrorism SCADA risk framework for Australia

Terrorist groups are currently using information and communication technologies (ICTs) to orchestrate their conventional physical attacks. More recently, terrorists have been developing a new form of capability within the cyber-arena to coordinate cyber-based attacks. This paper identifies that cyber-terrorism capabilities are an integral, imperative, yet under-researched component in establishing, and enhancing cyber-terrorism risk assessment models for SCADA systems. This paper is an extension of work previously published by Beggs and
Warren 2008, it presents a high level overview of a cyber-terrorism SCADA risk framework that has been adopted and validated by SCADA industry practitioners. The paper proposes a managerial framework which is designed to measure and protect SCADA systems from the threat of cyber-terrorism within Australia. The findings and results of an industry focus group are presented in support of the developed framework for SCADA industry adoption and acceptance.

Design-related bias in hospital fall risk screening tool predictive accuracy evaluations: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Fall risk screening tools are frequently used as a part of falls prevention programs in hospitals. Design-related bias in evaluations of tool predictive accuracy could lead to overoptimistic results, which would then contribute to program failure in practice.

Methods: A systematic review was undertaken. Two blind reviewers assessed the methodology of relevant publications into a four-point classification system adapted from multiple sources. The association between study design classification and reported results was examined using linear regression with clustering based on screening tool and robust variance estimates with point estimates of Youden Index (= sensitivity + specificity - 1) as the dependent variable. Meta-analysis was then performed pooling data from prospective studies.

Results: Thirty-five publications met inclusion criteria, containing 51 evaluations of fall risk screening tools. Twenty evaluations were classified as retrospective validation evaluations, 11 as prospective (temporal) validation evaluations, and 20 as prospective (external) validation evaluations. Retrospective evaluations had significantly higher Youden Indices (point estimate [95% confidence interval]: 0.22 [0.11, 0.33]). Pooled Youden Indices from prospective evaluations demonstrated the STRATIFY, Morse Falls Scale, and nursing staff clinical judgment to have comparable accuracy.

Discussion: Practitioners should exercise caution in comparing validity of fall risk assessment tools where the evaluation has been limited to retrospective classifications of methodology. Heterogeneity between studies indicates that the Morse Falls Scale and STRATIFY may still be useful in particular settings, but that widespread adoption of either is unlikely to generate benefits significantly greater than that of nursing staff clinical judgment.

Assessing risk for sexual offenders in New Zealand : development and validation of a computer-scored risk measure

A growing research base supports the predictive validity of actuarial methods of risk assessment with sexual offenders. These methods use clearly defined variables with demonstrated empirical association with re-offending. The advantages of actuarial measures for screening large numbers of offenders quickly and economically are further enhanced when the variables used can be extracted from existing electronic databases. This study reports the results of applying a computerized set of historical variables with a sample of 1,133 male sexual offenders released from prison by the New Zealand Department of Corrections. Area under the curve figures of 0.70-0.78 were obtained over periods of 5 to 15 years, reflecting a significant level of association with sexual recidivism. Detected rates of re-offending across risk levels were comparable to those previously reported for the Static-99. Rates of sexual re-offending by child molesters for all sexual offences and offences against child victims are reported separately.

Assessment and case conceptualization in sex offender treatment

The assessment of sexual offenders consists of the systematic collection of clinically relevant information in order to detect clinical phenomena or problems and to provide clear treatment targets. The result of this process is a conceptual model, or case formulation, representing the client’s various problems, the hypothesized underlying mechanisms, and their interrelationships. The focus of this article is on the importance of psychological assessment and case formulation in the rehabilitation and management of individuals convicted of sexual offences. First, we make a number of general points about the importance of evidence based assessment and clinical reasoning in case formulation. Second, we review key elements of contemporary sexual offender theory that highlights the heterogeneity evident among sex offenders and the implications for case formulation and treatment planning. Third, we discuss the role of case formulation for risk assessment and management. Finally, we illustrate our major points with a brief case study and conclude with a brief consideration of the value of case formulations.

Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk

The study of risk for sexual recidivism has undergone substantial development in recent years. The foundation for advances in this area has been the use of actuarial measures to identify subgroups of offenders with different observed rates of sexual re-offending over time. An unresolved issue within this research area has been the moderating function of age in the assessment of risk. The current study examined sexual re-offending as a function of age and actuarial risk in a large sample of sexual offenders released from prison between 1990 and 2004. There was an overall decrease in the rate of sexual re-offending over the age of 50. However, a small group of offenders from the higher actuarial risk categories of the older age groups continued to re-offend at higher rates than their lower-risk peers.

Identifying and managing low money laundering risk : perspectives on FATF's risk-based guidance

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate Financial Action Task Force (FATF)'s risk-based guidance to combat money laundering and terrorist financing to determine its approach to the identification and management of low-risk providers, products and transactions.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses the relevant FATF recommendations and its guidance notes and reflects on key questions for regulators and financial institutions.

Findings – FATF has not defined “risk” for purposes of the risk-based approach. The absence of a clear definition complicates the identification of low-risk products. FATF do provide an example of a risk matrix that can be used to identify low-risk banks, but the example is based on assumptions and generalisations that are not sustainable. In addition, it identifies certain low-value transactions as “low risk” transactions. The paper reflects on the role of value as an indicator of risk and concludes with a number of suggestions to clarify the conceptual framework.

Originality/value – Low-risk products and transactions are often overlooked because the risk-based approach focuses attention on high-risk matters. Low-risk products are however crucial to the efforts to increase financial inclusion. The paper identifies gaps in the current conceptual framework and indicates ways in which they can be addressed.

Is jump risk in iTraxx Sector Indices diversifiable?

The article presents an analysis of jump risks in iTraxx Europe index in a multivariate structural time-series setting for the stochastic process, as well as in the credit default swap (CDS) market. It also examines the rapid development of the credit derivatives market, particularly the CDS market. This analysis found a significant Poisson-distributed jumps in the iTraxx Non-Financials index and its subindices. Based on a statistical analysis, nondiversifiable jump risk strongly exists in the CDS market.

Assessing the risk of suicide at triage

Mental health related presentations to Australian emergency departments are steadily increasing. There is a growing incidence of depression, substance abuse, and other mental illnesses in the Australian population. Mental health problems will contribute 15% of the total world disease burden by 2020. Triage nurses are pivotal to the early detection and management of mental health problems.

The rapid assessment of mental health presentations at triage requires skill, knowledge, experience and confidence. One of the more complex aspects of triage is suicide risk assessment.

An ABC approach to assessing the risk of violence at triage

There is evidence to suggest that the incidence of violent behaviour in the emergency department by patients toward staff is on the rise. As part of the process of determining urgency, triage nurses must assess the risk of violence at point of entry. The risk of violence, that is, behaviour that either involves a threat of physical or psychological harm to one's self or to others, is considered a critical predictor of urgency in mental health triage. A rapid violence risk assessment strategy will be described which can be utilised in emergency department triage.

Confidentiality and disclosure : assessment and intervention issues

This portfolio addresses the moral, ethical and legal issues that impact upon decisions to maintain or disclose confidential communications. The tensions and moral dilemmas that are created when a conflict between these aspects arises are considered. Risk assessment procedures that inform decisions to maintain or disclose confidential information are discussed, as are issues related to the practical implementation of planned interventions. The topic is addressed by firstly reviewing professional codes of conduct and legal requirements to maintain confidentiality. The limits of confidentiality and privileged communication are then reviewed together with legal requirements of “duty to warn” or “duty of care”. These requirements are then related to risk assessment procedures and relevant interventions. Four case studies that illustrate the practical application of assessment techniques in the decision process and planned interventions are presented. They cover such diverse topics as disclosure and suicidal intent, threat of harm to a third party, risk of transmission of the AIDS virus and “duty to warn” and maintenance of a minor’s confidential communications. The ways in which these issues were addressed and the outcome is presented. NOTE: All names and details that have the potential to identify the people whose cases are presented here have been changed to protect their anonymity.

Exposure estimation, uncertainty and variability in occupational hygiene retrospective assessment

This thesis reports on a quantitative exposure assessment and on an analysis of the attributes of the data used in the estimations, in particular distinguishing between its uncertainty and variability. A retrospective assessment of exposure to benzene was carried out for a case control study of leukaemia in the Australian petroleum industry. The study used the mean of personal task-based measurements (Base Estimates) in a deterministic algorithm and applied factors to model back to places, times etc for which no exposure measurements were available. Mean daily exposures were estimated, on an individual subject basis, by summing the task-based exposures. These mean exposures were multiplied by the years spent on each job to provide exposure estimates in ppm-years. These were summed to provide a Cumulative Estimate for each subject. Validation was completed for the model and key inputs. Exposures were low, most jobs were below TWA of 5 ppm benzene. Exposures in terminals were generally higher than at refineries. Cumulative Estimates ranged from 0.005 to 50.9 ppm-years, with 84 percent less than 10 ppm-years. Exposure probability distributions were developed for tanker drivers using Monte Carlo simulation of the exposure estimation algorithm. The outcome was a lognormal distribution of exposure for each driver. These provide the basis for alternative risk assessment metrics e.g. the frequency of short but intense exposures which provided only a minimal contribution to the long-term average exposure but may increase risk of leukaemia. The effect of different inputs to the model were examined and their significance assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. The Base Estimates were the most important determinant of exposure in the model. The sources of variability in the measured data were examined, including the effect of having censored data and the between and within-worker variability. The sources of uncertainty in the exposure estimates were analysed and consequential improvements in exposure assessment identified. Monte Carlo sampling was also used to examine the uncertainties and variability associated with the tanker drivers' exposure assessment, to derive an estimate of the range and to put confidence intervals on the daily mean exposures. The identified uncertainty was less than the variability associated with the estimates. The traditional approach to exposure estimation typically derives only point estimates of mean exposure. The approach developed here allows a range of exposure estimates to be made and provides a more flexible and improved basis for risk assessment.

Safeguarding Australia from cyber-terrorism : a proposed cyber-terrorism SCADA risk framework for industry adoption

Terrorist groups are currently using information and communication technologies (ICTs) to orchestrate their conventional physical attacks. More recently, terrorists have been developing a new form of capability within the cyber-arena to  coordinate cyber-based attacks. This paper identifies that cyber-terrorism capabilities are an integral, imperative, yet under-researched component in establishing, and enhancing cyber-terrorism risk assessment models for SCADA systems.

This paper is an extension of work previously published by Beggs and Warren 2008, it presents a high level overview of a cyber-terrorism SCADA risk framework that has been adopted and validated by SCADA industry practitioners. The paper proposes a managerial framework which is designed to measure and protect SCADA systems from the threat of cyber-terrorism within Australia. The findings and results of an industry focus group is presented in support of the developed framework for SCADA industry adoption and acceptance.

General practitioners' role in health assessment of humanitarian settlers

An approach to health assessment of humanitarian settlers was developed and evaluated from the perspective of general practitioners (GPs). While conducting assessment was found to be feasible, there were significant barriers which GPs without a primary interest in refugee health and those working in private practice may find difficult to transcend.

Why is type 2 diabetes such a serious risk factor for coronary heart disease in women?

Women with type 2 diabetes were found to display an altered distribution of body fat, higher resistance to the action of insulin, highly increased levels of tryglycerides and significant elevations in the level of plasminogen activator inhibiter. Concludes that interventions which enhance the action of insulin, such as exercise or drug therapy, should lower the risk of coronary heart disease in these women.