Web search activity data accurately predict population chronic disease risk in the USA

BACKGROUND: The WHO framework for non-communicable disease (NCD) describes risks and outcomes comprising the majority of the global burden of disease. These factors are complex and interact at biological, behavioural, environmental and policy levels presenting challenges for population monitoring and intervention evaluation. This paper explores the utility of machine learning methods applied to population-level web search activity behaviour as a proxy for chronic disease risk factors. METHODS: Web activity output for each element of the WHO's Causes of NCD framework was used as a basis for identifying relevant web search activity from 2004 to 2013 for the USA. Multiple linear regression models with regularisation were used to generate predictive algorithms, mapping web search activity to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) measured risk factor/disease prevalence. Predictions for subsequent target years not included in the model derivation were tested against CDC data from population surveys using Pearson correlation and Spearman's r. RESULTS: For 2011 and 2012, predicted prevalence was very strongly correlated with measured risk data ranging from fruits and vegetables consumed (r=0.81; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.89) to alcohol consumption (r=0.96; 95% CI 0.93 to 0.98). Mean difference between predicted and measured differences by State ranged from 0.03 to 2.16. Spearman's r for state-wise predicted versus measured prevalence varied from 0.82 to 0.93. CONCLUSIONS: The high predictive validity of web search activity for NCD risk has potential to provide real-time information on population risk during policy implementation and other population-level NCD prevention efforts.

A model driven approach to care planning systems for consumer engagement in chronic disease management

This work demonstrates a model-driven approach to the development of care plan systems, amenable to: (a) a flexible and extensible definition of care plan scope; and (b) deployment of care plan viewing and tracking functionality to a wide range of physical computing devices. The approach utilises a care plan domain model from which guideline implementers formulate care plan templates aligning to specific clinical guidelines. A clinical end user would subsequently constrain that template (e.g., selecting a subset of available activities and specific targets) to create a care plan instance for an individual patient. An XML care plan visualisation definition created using the Marama tool is transformed to OpenLaszlo script from which Shockwave Flash objects can be compiled, creating Flash applications that run on a variety of hardware for both clinical and patient users. The approach is illustrated with respect to an overweight and obesity guideline.

Moving towards a more integrated approach to chronic disease prevention in Australian general practice

There is increasing evidence that prevention of chronic disease is possible and that primary care can contribute to this. This paper aims to explore the development of policies and programs to improve chronic disease prevention via behavioural risk factor management in Australian general practice and the impact of these between 2001 and the present. This involved a review of policy initiatives and developments in Australian general practice, drawing on published research over this period. Behavioural risk factor management has not been comprehensively implemented in the way in which it was originally envisaged under the SNAP (Smoking, Nutrition, Alcohol and Physical Activity) framework, with initiatives and programs emerging over time in a much less planned way, including Lifescripts and more recently the 45 - 49 year health check. There has been a gradual development in capacity, especially in relation to workforce, education and training, educational materials, financial and decision support with divisions of general practice emerging to play a key facilitation role. Despite this, important gaps remain especially in relation to the use of team approaches within and outside the practice including access to referral services and programs.

Eight month post program completion: change in risk factors for chronic disease amongst participants in a four-month pedometer workplace health program

Objective: To evaluate whether participation in a 4-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace health program is associated with long-term sustained improvements in risk factors for type 2 diabetesand cardiovascular disease, 8 months after the completion of the program.Design and Methods: A sample size of 720 was required. 762 Australian adults employed in primarily sedentary occupations and voluntarily enrolled in a workplace program were recruited. Demographic, behavioral, anthropometric and biomedical measurements were completed at baseline, 4 and 12 months.Results: About 76% of participants returned at 12 months. Sustained improvements at 12 months were observed for self-reported vegetable intake, self-reported sitting time and independently measured bloodpressure. Modest improvements from baseline in self-reported physical activity and independently measured waist circumference at 12 months indicated that the significant improvements observed immediately after the health program could not be sustained. Approximately half of those not meetingguidelines for physical activity, waist circumference and blood pressure at baseline, were meeting guidelines at 12 months.Conclusions: Participation in this 4-month, pedometer-based, physical activity, workplace health program was associated with sustained improvements in chronic disease risk factors at 12 months. These results indicate that such programs can have a long-term benefit and thus a potential role to play in population prevention of chronic disease.

Chronic disease self-management in Aboriginal communities : towards a sustainable program of care in rural communities

The Chronic Disease Self-Management (CDSM) strategy for Aboriginal patients on Eyre Peninsula, South Australia, was designed to develop and trial new program tools and processes for goal setting, behaviour change and self-management for Aboriginal people with diabetes. The project was established as a one-year demonstration project to test and trial a range of CDSM processes and procedures within Aboriginal communities and not as a formal research project. Over a one-year period, 60 Aboriginal people with type-2 diabetes in two remote regional centres participated in the pilot program. This represents around 25% of the known Aboriginal diabetic population in these sites. The project included training for four Aboriginal Health Workers in goal setting and self-management strategies in preparation for them to run the program. Patients completed a Diabetes Assessment Tool, a Quality of Life Questionnaire (SF12), the Work and Social Adjustment Scale (WASAS) at 0, 6 and 12 months. The evaluation tools were assessed and revised by consumers and health professionals during the trial to determine the most functional and acceptable processes for Aboriginal patients. Some limited biomedical data were also recorded although this was not the principal purpose of the project. Initial results from the COAG coordinated care trial in Eyre suggest that goal setting and monitoring processes, when modified to be culturally inclusive of Aboriginal people, can be effective strategies for improving self-management skills and health-related behaviours of patients with chronic illness. The CDSM pilot study in Aboriginal communities has led to further refinement of the tools and processes used in chronic illness self-management programs for Aboriginal people and to greater acceptance of these processes in the communities involved. Participation in a diabetes self-management program run by Aboriginal Health Workers assists patients to identify and understand their health problems and develop condition management goals and patient-centred solutions that can lead to improved health and wellbeing for participants. While the development of self-management tools and strategies led to some early indications of improvements in patient participation and resultant health outcomes, the pilot program and the refinement of new assessment tools used to assist this process has been the significant outcome of the project. The CDSM process described here is a valuable strategy for educating and supporting people with chronic conditions and in gaining their participation in programs designed to improve the way they manage their illness. Such work, and the subsequent health outcome research planned for rural regions, will contribute to the development of more comprehensive CDSM programs for Aboriginal communities generally.

Is client-centred care planning for chronic disease sustainable? Experience from rural South Australia

This qualitative evaluation of a chronic disease self-management project in rural South Australia considers the sustainability of client-centred care planning under current organisational and funding arrangements. The study involved consultation with a range of five stakeholder types over two stages (40 in the beginning stage and 39 in the middle stage) about their satisfaction with the care planning and self-management approach used in the project. All stakeholder types valued the client-centred approach because they perceived that clients were better able to accept and deal with the long-term management of their condition. However, this required that care planning should deal with a wider range of issues than just medical management, and so it took longer, which raised its sustainability in general practice under the current funding through the national health insurance programme (Medicare). The study concludes that sustainability may be addressed through further research into the role of and funding for peer-led self-management groups and the employment of care planners in organisational settings that are conducive to a client-centred approach.

Factors associated with higher sitting time in general, chronic disease, and psychologically-distressed, adult populations: findings from the 45 & up study

This study examined factors associated with higher sitting time in general, chronic disease, and psychologically-distressed, adult populations (aged ≥45 years). A series of logistic regression models examined potential socio-demographic and health factors associated with higher sitting (≥6hrs/day) in adults from the 45 and Up Study (n = 227,187), including four separate subsamples for analysis comprising those who had ever had heart disease (n = 26,599), cancer (n = 36,381), diabetes (n = 19,550) or psychological distress (n = 48,334). Odds of higher sitting were significantly (p<.01) associated with a number of factors across these groups, with an effect size of ORs≥1.5 observed for the high-income ≥$70,000AUD, employed full-time and severe physical limitations demographics. Identification of key factors associated with higher sitting time in this population-based sample will assist development of broad-based, public health and targeted strategies to reduce sitting-time. In particular, those categorized as being high-income earners, full-time workers, as well as those with severe physical limitations need to be of priority, as higher sitting appears to be substantial across these groups.

Can the direct medical cost of chronic disease be transferred across different countries? Using cost-of-illness studies on type 2 diabetes, epilepsy and schizophrenia as examples

OBJECTIVES: To systematically review cost of illness studies for schizophrenia (SC), epilepsy (EP) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and explore the transferability of direct medical cost across countries.

METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was performed to yield studies that estimated direct medical costs. A generalized linear model (GLM) with gamma distribution and log link was utilized to explore the variation in costs that accounted by the included factors. Both parametric (Random-effects model) and non-parametric (Boot-strapping) meta-analyses were performed to pool the converted raw cost data (expressed as percentage of GDP/capita of the country where the study was conducted).

RESULTS: In total, 93 articles were included (40 studies were for T2DM, 34 studies for EP and 19 studies for SC). Significant variances were detected inter- and intra-disease classes for the direct medical costs. Multivariate analysis identified that GDP/capita (p<0.05) was a significant factor contributing to the large variance in the cost results. Bootstrapping meta-analysis generated more conservative estimations with slightly wider 95% confidence intervals (CI) than the parametric meta-analysis, yielding a mean (95%CI) of 16.43% (11.32, 21.54) for T2DM, 36.17% (22.34, 50.00) for SC and 10.49% (7.86, 13.41) for EP.

CONCLUSIONS: Converting the raw cost data into percentage of GDP/capita of individual country was demonstrated to be a feasible approach to transfer the direct medical cost across countries. The approach from our study to obtain an estimated direct cost value along with the size of specific disease population from each jurisdiction could be used for a quick check on the economic burden of particular disease for countries without such data.

The adoption of roles by primary care providers during implementation of the new chronic disease guidelines in urban Mongolia: a qualitative study

(1) BACKGROUND: In 2011, new chronic disease guidelines were introduced across Mongolia. No formal advice was provided regarding role delineation. This study aimed to analyse the roles that different primary care providers adopted, and the variations in these, in the implementation of the guidelines in urban Mongolia;

(2) METHODS: Ten group interviews with nurses and ten individual interviews each with practice doctors and practice directors were conducted. Data was analysed using a thematic approach based on the identified themes relevant to role delineation;

(3) RESULTS: There was some variability and flexibility in role delineation. Factors involving teamwork, task rotation and practice flexibility facilitated well the guideline implementation. However, factors including expectations and decision making, nursing shortage, and training gaps adversely influenced in the roles and responsibilities. Some role confusion and dissatisfaction was identified, often associated with a lack of training or staff turnover;

(4) CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that adequate ongoing training is required to maximize the range of roles particular provider types, especially primary care nurses, are competent to perform. Ensuring that role delineation is specified in guidelines could remove confusion and enhance implementation of such guidelines.

Ageing, chronic disease and injury: a study in western Victoria (Australia)

Background : An increasing burden of chronic disease and associated health service delivery is expected due to the ageing Australian population. Injuries also affect health and wellbeing and have a long-term impact on health service utilisation. There is a lack of comprehensive data on disease and injury in rural and regional areas of Australia. The aim of the Ageing, Chronic Disease and Injury study is to compile data from various sources to better describe the patterns of chronic disease and injury across western Victoria.

Design : Ecological study.

Methods : Information on demographics, socioeconomic indicators and lifestyle factors are obtained from health surveys and government departments. Data concerning chronic diseases and injuries will be sourced from various registers, health and emergency services, local community health centres and administrative databases and compiled to generate profiles for the study region and for sub-populations within the region.

Expected impact for public health: This information is vital to establish current and projected population needs to inform policy and improve targeted health services delivery, care transition needs and infrastructure development. This study provides a model that can be replicated in other geographical settings.

Factors affecting the offer of pulmonary rehabilitation to patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by primary care professionals : a qualitative study

Aim: To explore health professionals’ experiences of barriers and facilitators to referring patients for pulmonary rehabilitation in a primary care setting.

Background: Pulmonary rehabilitation involves a multidisciplinary teamwork approach to improving
the quality of life for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. This study aimed to find out about health care professionals’ experiences when referring patients. Reports suggest that a health care professional’s attitude towards a treatment affects the willingness of patients to accept advice.

Methods: Five focus group interviews were undertaken with 21 health professionals from North Midlands, UK. Data were analysed using a thematic analysis drawing on the techniques of grounded theory.

Findings: Chronic disease management has been delegated to Practice Nurses in many cases leaving some nurses feeling unsupported and some General Practitioners feeling deskilled. Problems with communication, a lack of adequate and timely local service provision, a difficult referral process, time pressures and lack of information were barriers to health care professionals making an offer of pulmonary rehabilitation. An explanatory model is proposed to describe how addressing barriers to referral may improve health care professionals views about pulmonary rehabilitation and therefore may mean that they present it in a more positive manner.

Fuzzy logic for decision support in chronic care

Computerized clinical guidelines can provide significant benefits in terms of health outcomes and costs, however, their effective computer implementation presents significant problems. Vagueness and ambiguity inherent in natural language (textual) clinical guidelines makes them problematic for formulating automated alerts or advice. Fuzzy logic allows us to formalize the treatment of vagueness in a decision support architecture. In care plan on-line (CPOL), an intranet-based chronic disease care planning system for general practitioners (GPs) in use in South Australia, we formally treat fuzziness in interpretation of quantitative data, formulation of recommendations and unequal importance of clinical indicators. We use expert judgment on cases, as well as direct estimates by experts, to optimize aggregation operators and treat heterogeneous combinations of conjunction and disjunction that are present in the natural language decision rules formulated by specialist teams.

Rationale and design of the national benchmarking and evidence-based national clinical guidelines for chronic heart failure management programs study

OBJECTIVES: The National Benchmarks and Evidence-Based National Clinical Guidelines for Heart Failure Management Programs Study is a national, multicenter study designed to determine the nature, range, and effect of interventions applied by chronic heart failure management programs (CHF-MPs) throughout Australia on patient outcomes. Its primary objective is to use these data to develop national benchmarks and evidence-based clinical guidelines and optimize their cost-effective application by reducing quality and outcome variability. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING: Primary data will be collected from CHF-MP coordinators and CHF patients enrolled in these programs on a national basis. Secondary outcome data will be collected from a national morbidity record and from patients' medical records. STUDY DESIGN: Stage I of the study involves a prospective clinical audit of all CHF-MPs throughout Australia (n = 45) to determine the extent of variability in programs currently. Stage II is a prospective cross-sectional survey design enrolling 1,500 patients (average of 40 patients per program) to firstly determine the typical profile of patients being managed via a CHF-MP in Australia and, secondly, the subsequent morbidity and mortality during the 6-month follow-up. Outcome data will be subject to multivariate analysis to determine the key components of care in this regard. All study data will be then examined in the final stage of the study (III) to develop national benchmarks for the application and auditing of CHF-MPs in Australia. CONCLUSION: Variability in patient outcomes is a product of heterogeneity among CHF-MPs. The development of national benchmarks will minimize such heterogeneity and will provide a greater level of evidence for their cost-effective application.

Diet, nutrition and the prevention of chronic diseases : report of a Joint WHO/FAO Expert Consultation

This report examines the science base of the relationship between diet and physical activity patterns and the major nutrition-related chronic diseases. Recommendations are made to help prevent death and disability from major nutrition-related chronic diseases.