An integrated model of subnational regional and urban economic development : framework of analysis

The mechanism of subnational regional and urban economic development has been studied extensively by economists, geographers, town planners and other academics. The existing widely varying theories of regional economic development are insufficient on their own in explaining how a region can develop and prosper. Each theory has evaluated a few facets of regional economic development. Research from these different perspectives is narrow and prevents any cross-fertilization of research from these diverse theories. Recognition of multiple factors affecting the development process has led the author to create an integrated model of regional and urban economic development. The essay first sets out to describe and explain this integrated model. Each of the components of this new model draws heavily upon seminal work in the field. This model proposes three rings. Each ring is at a different level of abstraction. The determinants of development described in each ring can influence each and every other determinant of development shown in the three-ring structure. This model recognizes that development in any centre, be it regional or urban, nascent or established, is a composite end result of the complex interplay of all the determinants. The essay then goes on to show how this model can provide a broad holistic approach to regional economic development that can assist researchers in their attempts to understand and link its various theories.

When more is less : urban remnants support high bird abundance but diversity varies

Urban remnant vegetation, especially where it occurs in public parks, allows for relatively easy access for ongoing biodiversity monitoring. However, relatively little baseline information on bird species distribution and abundance across a range of identifiable urban remnants appears in the published literature. We surveyed the relative abundance and distribution of birds across urban and suburban remnant vegetation in Melbourne, Australia. One hundred and six species were recorded, of which 98 were indigenous. Red wattlebirds had the highest mean relative abundance with 2.94 birds/ha, followed by rainbow lorikeets (2.51), noisy miners (1.93), brown thornbills (1.75) and spotted doves (0.96). There was no obvious trend between overall relative abundance and the size of the remnant, in contrast to species richness which was positively correlated with remnant size. The data revealed that some species were either totally restricted to, or more abundant in, larger remnants and generally absent from smaller remnants. Some of the more common birds (crimson rosella, superb fairy-wren, spotted pardalote and black-faced cuckoo-shrike) recorded during this study were detected at similar densities to those found in comparable vegetation to the east of Melbourne within a largely forested landscape. Other species occurred at much lower densities (e.g., white-browed scrubwren, brown thornbill, eastern yellow robin and grey fantail) or had habitat requirements or ecological characteristics that could place them at risk of further decline or local extinction in the urban area. We identify a suite of bird species of potential conservation concern within Melbourne’s urban landscape. The establishment of repeatable, fixed-point, and long-term monitoring sites will allow for repeat surveying over time and provide an early warning of population declines, or conversely an indication of population increase for other species.

Simulating urban growth in a developing nation's region using a cellular automata-based model

Urbanization is one of the most evident global changes. Research in the field of urban growth modelling has generated models that explore for drivers and components of the urban growth dynamics. Cellular automata (CA) modeling is one of the recent advances, and a number of CA-based models of urban growth have produced satisfactory simulations of spatial urban expansion over time. Most application and test of CA-based models of urban growth which provide likely and reliable simulations has been developed in urban regions of developed nations; urban regions in the United States, in particular. This is because most of the models were developed in universities and research centers of developed nations, and these regions have the required data, which is extensive. Most of the population growth in the world, however, occurs in the developing world. While some European countries show signs of stabilization of their population, in less developed countries, such as India, population still grows exponentially. And this growth is normally uncoordinated, which results in serious environmental and social problems in urban areas. Therefore, the use of existing dynamic–spatial models of urban growth in regions of developing nations could be a means to assist planners and decision makers of these regions to understand and simulate the process of urban growth and test the results of different development strategies. The pattern of growth of urban regions of developing nations, however, seems to be different of the pattern of developed countries. The former use to be more dense and centralized, normally expanding outwards from consolidated urban areas; while the second is normally more fragmented and sparse. The present paper aims to investigate to how extent existing CA-based urban growth models tested in developed nations can also be applied to a developing country urban area. The urban growth model was applied to Porto Alegre City, Brazil. An expected contiguous expansion from existing urban areas has been obtained as following the historical trends of growth of the region. Moreover, the model was sensitive and able to portray different pattern of growth in the study area by changing the value of its parameters.

A conceptual multi-criteria mechanism for stakeholder participation in urban development

Australia is one of the world’s most urbanised nations, with 74.92% of the population living in 17 major cities of 100,000 people or more. To improve the productivity, liveability and sustainability of Australia’s cities, there is an increasing emphasis in urban management policies on democratic stakeholder participation. In order to obtain a full picture of stakeholders’ concerns efficiently, and manage antagonism, prejudice and conflicts between stakeholders effectively, it is important for participatory decision-making in urban development to be able to select and integrate stakeholder analysis and engagement methods. This paper investigates the characteristics of stakeholder participation approaches in urban development, and proposes criteria for approach selection and integration. The outcome is a multi-criteria mechanism for selecting and integrating approaches to stakeholder participation. This could enable effective, efficient and democratic participation in decision-making process of urban development. Meanwhile, the capacity of Australian state, territory and local governments can be largely enhanced to understand and unpack the complex challenges of urban-ecological conditions, and generate a compromise solution that best represents the preferences of stakeholders.

Targeting and measuring housing problems in developing countries through urban texture analysis

Latin-american countries passed from predominantely rural to predominantely urban within few decades. The level of urbanisation in Brazil progressed from 36% in 1950, 50% in 1970, and scalating to 85% in 2005. This rapid transformation resulted in many social problems, as cities were not able to provide appropriate housing and infrastructure for the growing population. As a response, the Brazilian Ministry for Cities, in 2005, created the National System for Social Housing, with the goal to establish guidelines in the Federal level, and build capacity and fund social housing projects in the State and Local levels. This paper presents a research developed in Gramado city, Brazil, as part of the Local Social Housing Plan process, with the goal to produce innovative tools to help social housing planning and management. It proposes and test a methodology to locate and characterise/rank housing defficiencies across the city combining GIS and fractal geometry analysis. Fractal measurements, such as fractal dimension and lacunarity, are able to differentiate urban morphology, and integrated to infrastructure and socio-economical spatial indicators, they can be used to estimate housing problems and help to target, classify and schedule actions to improve housing in cities and regions. Gramado city was divided in a grid with 1,000 cells. For each cell, the following indicators were measured: average income of households, % of roads length which are paved (as a proxy for availability of infrastructures as water and sewage), fractal dimension and lacunarity of the dwellings spatial distribution. A statistical model combining those measurements was produced using a sample of 10% of the cells divided in five housing standards (from high income/low density dwellings to slum's dwellings). The estimation of the location and level of social housing deficiencies in the whole region using the model, compared to the real situation, achived high correlations. Simple and based on easily accessible and inexpensive data, the method also helped to overcome limitations of lack of information and fragmented knowledge of the area related to housing conditions by local professionals.

Air pressure and wind velocity - modelling ember attack within the urban-rural interface

As population change places pressure on expanding regional and metropolitan urban boundaries, so the threat of bushfire at the rural/urban interface increases. This paper presents a range of 2D and 3D 1:40 and full scale modelling investigations. Various relationships are explored between the urban and rural interface with respect to: air pressure; changes in wind pattern; vectorial velocity; and the deposition of hot ash and firebrand deposits around single story building forms, both as standalone and within an orthogonal array and cul-de-sac relationships.

Fracture rates lower in rural than urban communities : the Geelong Osteoporosis Study

Background: Urban and rural communities differ in the incidence of several diseases including coronary heart disease and some cancers. Lower hip fracture rates among rural than urban populations have been reported but few studies have compared rural and urban fractures at sites other than the hip.

Objective: To compare total and site specific fracture rates among adult residents of rural and urban communities within the same population.

Design and setting: This is a population based study on osteoporosis in Australia. All fractures occurring in adult residents over a two year period were ascertained using radiological reports. The rural and urban areas are in close proximity, with the same medical, hospital, and radiological facilities permitting uniform fracture ascertainment.

Main outcome measures: All fracture rates were age adjusted and sex adjusted to the Australian population according to the 1996 census of the Australian Bureau of Statistics and described as the rate per 10 000 person years. The p values refer to the adjusted rate difference.

Results: The hip fracture rate (incidence per 10 000 person years) was 32% lower (39 v 57, p<0.001), and the total fracture rate 15% lower (160 v 188, p=0.004) among rural than urban residents, respectively. The lower fracture rates in the rural population were also apparent for pelvic fractures.

Conclusion: In the older rural population, lower fracture rates at sites typically associated with osteoporosis suggest environmental factors may have a different impact on bone health in this community. If the national rate of hip fracture could be reduced to that of the rural population, the projected increase in hip fracture number attributable to aging of the population could be prevented.

Forearm bone mineral density and incidence of hip fractures in Swedish urban and rural men 1987-2002

Background: It is not known whether the recently described break in the trend in hip fracture incidence in many settings applies in both women and men, depends on changes in bone mineral density (BMD) or changes in other risk factors, or whether it is apparent in both urban and rural settings. Methods: We evaluated changes in annual hip fracture incidence from 1987 to 2002 in Swedish men aged ≥60 years in one urban (n=25,491) and one rural population (n=16,432) and also secular differences in BMD, measured by single-photon absorptiometry at the distal radius and multiple other risk factors for hip fracture in a population-based sub-sample of the urban and the rural men aged 60–80 years in 1988/89 (n=202 vs. 121) and in 1998/99 (n=79 vs. 69). Results: No statistically significant changes in the annual age-adjusted hip fracture incidence per 10,000 were apparent from 1987 to 2002 in urban (0.38 per year, 95% CI-0.12 to 0.88) or rural men (-0.05 per year, 95% CI -0.63 to 0.53). BMD was similar in 1988/89 and 1998/99 when examining both urban (-19.6 mg/cm², 95% CI -42.6 to 3.5) and rural (-23.0 mg/cm², 95% CI -52.1 to 6.1) men. Conclusions: Since no secular change in age-adjusted hip fracture incidence was found during the study period, a levelling off in hip fracture incidence is present also in Swedish men. Because BMD on a group level was similar in 1988/89 and 1998/99, changes in other risk factors ought to be either of minor importance or counteracted by changes in different risk factors.

ID scanning, the media and the politics of urban surveillance in an Australian regional city

Computerised ID scanning technologies have permeated many urban night-time economies in Australia, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom. This paper documents how one media organisation’s overt and tacit approval of ID scanners helped to normalise this form of surveillance as a precondition of entry into most licensed venues in the Australian city of Geelong. After outlining how processes of governance “from above” and “from below” interweave to generate distinct political and media demands for strategies to prevent localised crime problems, a chronological reconstruction of media reports over a three-and-a half year period demonstrates how ID scanning became the centrepiece of a holistic reform strategy to combat alcohol-related violence in this nightclub precinct. Several discursive techniques helped to normalise this “technological fix”, while suppressing critical discussion of viable concerns over information privacy, data security and system networking. These
included pairing reports of an initial “signal crime” with examples of “virtual victimhood” to stress the urgency of a radical surveillance-based response, which was supported by anecdotal statements from key “primary definers” highlighting the success of this initiative in targeting a wider population of antisocial “others”. The implications of these reporting practices are discussed in light of the media’s central role in reforming the Geelong night-time economy and broader trends in using novel surveillance technologies to combat urban crime problems at the expense of alternative measures that protect individual liberty.

Do food and physical activity environments vary between disadvantaged urban and rural areas? Findings from the READI study

Issues addressed: The presence or absence of amenities in local neighbourhood environments can either promote or restrict access to opportunities to engage in healthy and/or less healthy behaviours. Rurality is thought to constrain access to facilities and services. This study investigated whether the presence and density of environmental amenities related to physical activity and eating behaviours differs between socioeconomically disadvantaged urban and rural areas in Victoria, Australia.

Methods: We undertook cross-sectional analysis of environmental data collected in 2007-08 as part of the Resilience for Eating and Activity Despise Inequality (READI) study. These data were sourced and analysed for 40 urban and 40 rural socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. The variables examined were the presence, raw count, count/km², and count/'000 population of a range of environmental amenities (fast-food restaurants, all supermarkets (also separated by major chain and other supermarkets), greengrocers, playgrounds, gyms/leisure centres, public swimming pools and public open spaces).

Results: A greater proportion of urban areas had a fast-food restaurant and gym/leisure centre present while more rural areas contained a supermarket and public swimming pool. All amenities examined (with the exception of swimming pools) were more numerous per km² in urban areas, however rural areas had a greater number of all supermarkets, other supermarkets, playgrounds, swimming pools and public open area per '000 population.

Conclusion: Although opportunities to engage in healthy eating and physical activity exist in many rural areas, a lower density per km² suggests a greater travel distance may be required to reach these.

Active, healthy cities ? how does population physical activity vary between Australian cities?

Issue addressed: Despite recognition that urban infrastructure influences physical activity, there have been no comparisons between Australian city-level patterns of physical activity. This study ranked Australian cities in terms of adults? participation in leisure-time physical activity and examined city-level variations in activity trends between 2001 and 2009. Methods: Data on participation in leisure-time physical activity in adults (=15 years) between 2001 and 2009 were obtained from the Exercise Recreation and Sport Survey (ERASS), a computer-assisted telephone interview conducted to collect population-level sport participation information by the Australian Sports Commission. Data were analysed for respondents residing in the eight capital cities of Australia. The prevalence of meeting recommended ?health-enhancing physical activity? (HEPA) and levels of walking were calculated by age, gender and survey year. Multiple linear logistic regression analyses were used to compare cities. Results: Pooled data from 174,323 adults across years showed that Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Canberra residents were significantly more active than Sydney, Adelaide and Hobart residents in terms of HEPA. Hobart, Perth and Melbourne residents were significantly more likely to walk =5 sessions a week compared with their counterparts in other cities. HEPA and walking increased across most cities between 2001 and 2009. Conclusion: There are significant differences between Australian cities in physical activity and walking levels, over and above differences attributable to age, gender or educational levels. While this may be due to infrastructure differences, comparative information on indicators of the built environment and transport infrastructure are not available.

Urban informality in the developing world - Opportunistic urban design processes and prototypes for the developed world

The turn of the twenty first century heralds a fundamental shift in the world’s population towards cities in what has been termed The Urban Age, most visible in the developing world. Instead of the dichotomy of ‘First World models’ and ‘Third world problems’, research has begun to explore the complexities of urban informality revealing new approaches to the complex creation of urban spaces. This paper will analyse the prevailing perspectives in order to develop an understanding of informality as an urban evolution through necessity. Finally through an analysis of professional urban design experiments the paper highlights opportunities and challenges within the developing world for new and exciting urban design processes in the developed world.

Disrupted fine-scale population processes in fragmented landscapes despite large-scale genetic connectivity for a widespread and common cooperative breeder : the superb fairy-wren (Malurus cyaneus)

Understanding how habitat fragmentation affects population processes (e.g. dispersal) at different spatial scales is of critical importance to conservation. We assessed the effects of habitat fragmentation on dispersal and regional and fine-scale population structure in a currently widespread and common cooperatively breeding bird species found across south-eastern Australia, the superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus. Despite its relative abundance and classification as an urban tolerant species, the superb fairy-wren has declined disproportionately from low tree-cover agricultural landscapes across the Box-Ironbark region of north-central Victoria, Australia. Loss of genetic connectivity and disruption to its complex social system may be associated with the decline of this species from apparently suitable habitat in landscapes with low levels of tree cover. To assess whether reduced structural connectivity has had negative consequences for genetic connectivity in the superb fairy-wren, we used a landscape-scale approach to compare patterns of genetic diversity and gene flow at large (landscape/regional) and fine (site-level) spatial scales. In addition, using genetic distances, for each sex, we tested landscape models of decreased dispersal through treeless areas (isolation-by-resistance) while controlling for the effect of isolation-by-distance. Landscape models indicated that larger-scale gene flow across the Box-Ironbark region was constrained by distance rather than by lack of structural connectivity. Nonetheless, a pattern of isolation-by-resistance for males (the less-dispersive sex) and lower genetic diversity and higher genetic similarity within sites in low-cover fragmented landscapes indicated disruption to fine-scale gene flow mechanisms and/or mating systems. Although loss of structural connectivity did not appear to impede gene flow at larger spatial scales, fragmentation appeared to affect fine-scale population processes (e.g. local gene flow mechanisms and/or mating systems) adversely and may contribute to the decline of superb fairy-wrens in fragmented landscapes in the Box-Ironbark region. © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Urban growth in arid environments : developing water sustainability indicators for Abu Dhabi (UAE)

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) face a serious water problem. It has a very dry climate, high evaporation rate, combined with large water consumption from fast growing population, economic activities and uncontrolled uses of water for irrigation. Currently, UAE has one of the largest water footprints in the world. Groundwater is overexploited. Waste water is increasingly being treated to supply non-drinking water, but it still cover a small proportion of the demand. Desalination of sea water is the main source of potable water in UAE, but the high economic cost of desalination, its intensive energy demand and the adverse effects of its effluents on the marine life are a major concern. Other factors contributing to the problem are the focus of water management policies on keep supplying the growing demand for water, the increase of the per capita water consumption, and the free water charge for most of population. This research goal is to develop a water sustainability set of indicators for the challenging context of UAE. This paper presents the first stage of the research. Based on a review of the literature, the proposed framework involves 19 indicators, divided into four categories: water availability; water quality; water use efficiency; and policy and governance. Using an integrated cause-effect approach (DSR - Driving force, State, Response), the indicators were related in terms of their interdependencies, with a holistic view of the city water cycle. A preliminary test of the indicators to Abu Dhabi as a case study allowed an evaluation of the main 'Driving force' on the system, such as the scarcity of water due to natural constraints of the region, and increasing water consumption patterns of modern society; an assessment of the current 'state', which is under serious water stress. Also it indicated some potential 'responses', such as implementing policies for increasing efficient use.

Modelling urban growth futures within inner metropolitan Melbourne

In the light of the Victorian State Government's move towards the development of 'Plan Melbourne' - a new metropolitan planning strategy currently being prepared to take Melbourne forward to 2050 - the following paper attempts to address the issue of how an inner city target of 90,000 new dwellings (Inner Metropolitan Action Plan - IMAP Strategy 5) will impact on existing inner Melbourne activity centres. Working with the prospect of establishing a more compact city within the inner Melbourne region, the paper will focus on key suburbs within the Port Phillip area. Working with a 'Housing Variance Model' based on household structure and dwelling type, the paper will attempt to assess the impact on urban morphology as capacity is progressively altered through a range of built form permutations.