Parametric conditional frailty models for recurrent cardiovascular events in the lipid study

Background Analysis of recurrent event data is frequently needed in clinical and epidemiological studies. An important issue in such analysis is how to account for the dependence of the events in an individual and any unobserved heterogeneity of the event propensity across individuals.Methods We applied a number of conditional frailty and nonfrailty models in an analysis involving recurrent myocardial infarction events in the Long-Term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease study. A multiple variable risk prediction model was developed for both males and females. Results A Weibull model with a gamma frailty term fitted the data better than other frailty models for each gender. Among nonfrailty models the stratified survival model fitted the data best for each gender. The relative risk estimated by the elapsed time model was close to that estimated by the gap time model. We found that a cholesterol-lowering drug, pravastatin (the intervention being tested in the trial) had significant protective effect against the occurrence of myocardial infarction in men (HR¼0.71, 95% CI0.60–0.83). However, the treatment effect was not significant in women due to smaller sample size (HR¼0.75, 95% CI 0.51–1.10). There were no significant interactions between the treatment effect and each recurrent MI event (p¼0.24 for men and p¼0.55 for women). The risk of developing an MI event for a male who had an MI event during follow-up was about 3.4 (95% CI 2.6–4.4) times the risk compared with those who did not have an MI event. The corresponding relative risk for a female was about 7.8 (95% CI 4.4–13.6). Limitations The number of female patients was relatively small compared with their male counterparts, which may result in low statistical power to find real differences in the effect of treatment and other potential risk factors.Conclusions The conditional frailty model suggested that after accounting for all the risk factors in the model, there was still unmeasured heterogeneity of the risk for myocardial infarction, indicating the effect of subject-specific risk factors. These risk prediction models can be used to classify cardiovascular disease patients into different risk categories and may be useful for the most effective targeting of preventive therapies for cardiovascular disease.

Cardiovascular risk prediction model development and assessment

The aim of this article is to review the development and assessment of cardiovascular risk prediction models and to discuss the predictive value of a risk factor as well as to introduce new assessment methods to evaluate a risk prediction model. Many cardiovascular risk prediction models have been developed during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an existing model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has traditionally been used to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has its limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker. New assessment methods are being developed to appropriately assess a risk prediction model and they will be gradually used in clinical and epidemiological studies.

Dietary portfolio approach to reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease : the polymeal revisited

Aims: The Polymeal was first proposed as a 'tastier and safer' alternative to a polypharmacy approach to cardiovascular disease risk reduction. The present study aimed to examine the affordability of the Polymeal, and to propose modifications based on economic considerations, and the latest scientific evidence, to achieve consistency with current public health recommendations.

Methods: Prices for each food component specified in the Polymeal were obtained from a major and independent supermarket chain in a representative middle socioeconomic demographic region of metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Items included fish (114 g, four times/week), fruits and vegetables (400 g/day), dark chocolate (100 g/day), garlic (2.7 g/day), almonds (68 g/day) and red wine (150 mL/day). Prices were calculated using an average of the major brands, or the most commonly eaten fruits, vegetables or fish. Modifications of the Polymeal were proposed based on published research and public health recommendations since the Polymeal was first proposed.

Results: Average price of the Polymeal was AU$11.89 per day falling to AU$8.46 if the cheapest food items were chosen. Modifications to the Polymeal included: consuming fish oil capsules instead of fish, reduction in the quantity of dark chocolate and removal of red wine. These modifications halved the cost of the Polymeal, while choosing the cheapest food items further lowered the cost to AU$3.49 per day. Modification of the Polymeal gave substantial reductions in both energy and saturated fat (51% and 84%, respectively).

Conclusion: The modified Polymeal is a more affordable variation of the Polymeal, which takes into account current scientific evidence and public health recommendations.

Cardiovascular surveys : manual of operations

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death and hospitalization in both men and women in nearly all countries of Europe. The most frequent forms of CVD are those of an atherosclerotic origin, mainly ischaemic heart disease, stroke and heart failure. The magnitude of the problem contrasts with the usual paucity and poor quality of data available on incidence and prevalence of CVD, except for few rigorous but limited studies.

The objectives of the health interview and health examination surveys (HIS/HES) are to evaluate the frequency and the distribution of the disease, to evaluate trends and treatment effectiveness, to estimate risk factors distribution and prevalence of high risk conditions and to monitor prevention programmes.

According to the EUROCISS project (EUROpean Cardiovascular Surveillance Set) recommendations, surveys are aimed at describing the prevalence of the following CVD conditions: myocardial infarction, heart failure, angina pectoris, peripheral arterial disease, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease.

HIS and HES were developed to supplement information collected from routine databases and population-based registers to implement consistent public health policies. HIS can be repeated periodically in a new sample of the population, or can follow up over time the population recruited at baseline. Procedures and methods to collect information from participants include self-administered questionnaires, direct interviewer-administered questions and telephone interviews. A minimum set of questions to be administered every year, along with a longer, more detailed module to be administered periodically are recommended to evaluate CVD prevalence. The addition of HES provides more detailed and objective information that can be used to improve estimates regarding prevalence of both risk factors and disease status.

The selection of more specialized CVD-specific tests will depend on the objective the survey is designed to achieve, the assumed response rate and the cost and time considerations. For HES on CVD the minimum required is to perform the following measurements: height, weight, blood pressure, waist circumference, total and high density lipoprotein-cholesterol and glucose assay in a nonfasting blood sample. The next appropriate step would be to perform an electrocardiogram. High costs usually make HES difficult to carry out.

Standardization of measurements, training of personnel and quality control are essential to assure reliable data. A high response rate is extremely important, as nonrespondents tend to have different health characteristics from the rest of the sample and their omission therefore results in bias.

This manual of operations is intended for health professionals and policy makers and provides a standardized and simple model for the implementation of a CVD survey.

European cardiovascular disease statistics

This is the third edition of European cardiovascular disease statistics. The first edition was published in 2000 when the European Union (EU) consisted of 15 Member States. After enlargement in 2004 and then again in 2007, there are now 27 Member States. Much has changed in the last seven years, but cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the main cause of death in the EU. The European cardiovascular disease statistics was the first publication to bring together all the available sources of information about the burden of CVD in Europe, including data on death and illness, treatment, the prevalence of behavioural risk factors for CVD (smoking, diet, physical inactivity and alcohol consumption), and the prevalence of medical conditions associated with CVD (raised cholesterol, raised blood pressure, overweight and obesity, and diabetes). It
has become an indispensable resource for anybody working on reducing the burden of CVD in Europe or in public health generally.

Modelling the UK burden of cardiovascular disease to 2020

This new research report demonstrates the scale of the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) - shown to be large, costly, and increasing. Whilst mortality from CVD has fallen, an increasing population over the next decade will create further demands on services as the actual numbers of people living with CVD climb higher.

Psychological and cumulative cardiovascular effects of repeated angry ruminaton and visuospatial suppression

Brooding rumination is associated with depressed mood, increased negative affect, prolonged anger and inhibited cardiovascular (CV) recovery. Distraction from rumination on a stressful interpersonal encounter is associated with faster CV recovery and decreased negative affect. Studies have suggested that a concurrent visuospatial (VS) task inhibits the maintenance of imagery associated with the perseveration of intrusive negative memories. 120 healthy participants were recruited for the study. As an analogue of repeated angry rumination, the authors explored the effects of repeated visual recall of a provocative confederate and the subsequent impact of two visuospatial (VS) distraction tasks on negative affect, blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR). Repeated recall of the provocation generated repeatedly elevated HR with a cumulative trend that may have CV disease risk implications for chronic ruminators. VS distraction did not aid recovery compared with the Control task.

Waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and BMI and their correlation with cardiovascular risk factors in Australian adults

Objectives. To compare body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and waist–hip ratio (WHR) as indices of obesity and assess the respective associations with type 2 diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia.

Design and setting. A national sample of 11 247 Australians aged ≥25 years was examined in 2000 in a cross-sectional survey.

Main outcome measures. The examination included a fasting blood sample, standard 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test, blood pressure measurements and questionnaires to assess treatment for dyslipidaemia and hypertension. BMI, waist circumference and WHR were measured to assess overweight and obesity.

Results. The prevalence of obesity amongst Australian adults defined by BMI, waist circumference and WHR was 20.8, 30.5 and 15.8% respectively. The unadjusted odds ratio for the fourth vs. first quartile of each obesity measurement showed that WHR had the strongest relationship with type 2 diabetes, dyslipidaemia (women only) and hypertension. Following adjustment for age, however, there was little difference between the three measures of obesity, with the possible exceptions of hypertension in women, where BMI had a stronger association, and dyslipidaemia in women and type 2 diabetes in men, where WHR was marginally superior.

Conclusions. Waist circumference, BMI and WHR identified different proportions of the population, as measured by both prevalence of obesity and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors. Whilst WHR had the strongest correlations with CVD risk factors before adjustment for age, the three obesity measures performed similarly after adjustment for age. Given the difficulty of using age-adjusted associations in the clinical setting, these results suggest that given appropriate cut-off points, WHR is the most useful measure of obesity to use to identify individuals with CVD risk factors.

Risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in individuals with diabetes mellitus, impaired fasting glucose, and impaired glucose tolerance. The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab)

Background--Diabetes mellitus increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. The relationship between milder elevations of blood glucose and mortality is less clear. This study investigated whether impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance, as well as diabetes mellitus, increase the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality.

Methods and Results--In 1999 to 2000, glucose tolerance status was determined in 10 428 participants of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab). After a median follow-up of 5.2 years, 298 deaths occurred (88 CVD deaths). Compared with those with normal glucose tolerance, the adjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for known diabetes mellitus and newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus were 2.3 (1.6 to 3.2) and 1.3 (0.9 to 2.0), respectively. The risk of death was also increased in those with impaired fasting glucose (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.4) and impaired glucose tolerance (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.0). Sixty-five percent of all those who died of CVD had known diabetes mellitus, newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus, impaired fasting glucose, or impaired glucose tolerance at baseline. Known diabetes mellitus (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.7) and impaired fasting glucose (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2 to 5.1) were independent predictors for CVD mortality after adjustment for age, sex, and other traditional CVD risk factors, but impaired glucose tolerance was not (HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7 to 2.2).

Conclusions--This study emphasizes the strong association between abnormal glucose metabolism and mortality, and it suggests that this condition contributes to a large number of CVD deaths in the general population. CVD prevention may be warranted in people with all categories of abnormal glucose metabolism.