Predicting violence in schizophrenia: a prospective study

Background: People with schizophrenia are more violent than the general population, but this increased risk is attributable to the actions of a small subgroup. Identifying those at risk has become an essential part of clinical practice. Aims: To estimate the risk factors for assault in patients with schizophrenia. Methods: Two hundred seventy-one patients with schizophrenia were interviewed using an extensive battery of instruments. Assault was measured from multiple data sources over the next 2 years and criminal records were obtained. Multiple sociodemographic and clinical variables measured at baseline were examined as possible predictors of assault during follow-up. Results: Sixty-nine (25%) patients committed assault during the 2-year followup. The model that best predicted assault included a history of recent assault (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.17-4.61), a previous violent conviction (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.04-3.87), having received special education (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.22-6.26) and alcohol abuse (OR 3.55, 95% CI 1.24-10.2). Conclusions: Previously established risk factors including a history of violence and alcohol abuse are replicated in this study. Although low premorbid IQ did not predict violence, a need for special education did. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Interpretation of ambiguity in children: a prospective study of associations with anxiety and parental interpretations

Interpretation of ambiguity is consistently associated with anxiety in children, however, the temporal relationship between interpretation and anxiety remains unclear as do the developmental origins of interpretative biases. This study set out to test a model of the development of interpretative biases in a prospective study of 110 children aged 5–9 years of age. Children and their parents were assessed three times, annually, on measures of anxiety and interpretation of ambiguous scenarios (including, for parents, both their own interpretations and their expectations regarding their child). Three models were constructed to assess associations between parent and child anxiety and threat and distress cognitions and expectancies. The three models were all a reasonable fit of the data, and supported conclusions that: (i) children’s threat and distress cognitions were stable over time and were significantly associated with anxiety, (ii) parents’ threat and distress cognitions and expectancies significantly predicted child threat cognitions at some time points, and (iii) parental anxiety significantly predicted parents cognitions, which predicted parental expectancies at some time points. Parental expectancies were also significantly predicted by child cognitions. The findings varied depending on assessment time point and whether threat or distress cognitions were being considered. The findings support the notion that child and parent cognitive processes, in particular parental expectations, may be a useful target in the treatment or prevention of anxiety disorders in children.

Does dairy food intake predict arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly prospective study

Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease events and mortality, and like blood pressure, may be influenced by dairy food intake. Few studies have investigated the effects of consumption of these foods on prospective measures of arterial stiffness. The present analysis aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between milk, cheese, cream, and butter consumption and aortic pulse wave velocity, augmentation index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as cross-sectional relationships between these foods and systolic and diastolic blood pressure and metabolic markers using data from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. Included in this cohort were 2512 men, aged 45 to 59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 22.8 years (number follow-up 787). Augmentation index was 1.8% lower in subjects in the highest quartiles of dairy product intake compared with the lowest (P trend=0.021), whereas in the highest group of milk consumption systolic blood pressure was 10.4 mm Hg lower (P trend=0.033) than in nonmilk consumers after a 22.8-year follow-up. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that across increasing quartiles of butter intake, insulin (P trend=0.011), triacylglycerol (P trend=0.023), total cholesterol (P trend=0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (P trend=0.027) were higher. Across increasing groups of milk intake and quartiles of dairy product intake, glucose (P trend=0.032) and triglyceride concentrations (P trend=0.031) were lower, respectively. The present results confirm that consumption of milk predicts prospective blood pressure, whereas dairy product consumption, excluding butter, is not detrimental to arterial stiffness and metabolic markers. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms that underpin these relationships.

Is fatty acid intake a predictor of arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men? Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study

Background and aims: Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality and may be differentially affected by dietary fatty acid (FA) intake. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between FA consumption and arterial stiffness and blood pressure in a community-based population. Methods and results: The Caerphilly Prospective Study recruited 2398 men, aged 45-59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 17.8-years (n 787). A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire estimated intakes of total, saturated, mono- and poly-unsaturated fatty acids (SFA, MUFA, PUFA). Multiple regression models investigated associations between intakes of FA at baseline with aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV), augmentation index (AIx), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP) and pulse pressure after a 17.8-year follow-up - as well as cross-sectional relationships with metabolic markers. After adjustment, higher SFA consumption at baseline was associated with higher SBP (P = 0.043) and DBP (P = 0.002) and after a 17.8-year follow-up was associated with a 0.51 m/s higher aPWV (P = 0.006). After adjustment, higher PUFA consumption at baseline was associated with lower SBP (P = 0.022) and DBP (P = 0.036) and after a 17.8-year follow-up was associated with a 0.63 m/s lower aPWV (P = 0.007). Conclusion: This study suggests that consumption of SFA and PUFA have opposing effects on arterial stiffness and blood pressure. Importantly, this study suggests that consumption of FA is an important risk factor for arterial stiffness and CVD.

Interpretation bias in preschool children at risk for anxiety: a prospective study

A story-stem paradigm was used to assess interpretation bias in preschool children. Data were available for 131 children. Interpretation bias, behavioural inhibition (BI) and anxiety were assessed when children were aged between 3 years 2 months and 4 years 5 months. Anxiety was subsequently assessed 12-months, 2-years and 5-years later. A significant difference in interpretation bias was found between participants who met criteria for an anxiety diagnosis at baseline, with clinically anxious participants more likely to complete the ambiguous story-stems in a threat-related way. Threat interpretations significantly predicted anxiety symptoms at 12-month follow-up, after controlling for baseline symptoms, but did not predict anxiety symptoms or diagnoses at either 2-year or 5- year follow-up. There was little evidence for a relationship between BI and interpretation bias. Overall, the pattern of results was not consistent with the hypothesis that interpretation bias plays a role in the development of anxiety. Instead, some evidence for a role in the maintenance of anxiety over relatively short periods of time was found. The use of a story-stem methodology to assess interpretation bias in young children is discussed along with the theoretical and clinical implications of the findings.

Reproducibility of a short semi-quantitative food group questionnaire and its performance in estimating nutrient intake compared with a 7-day diet diary in the Million Women Study

Objectives: To assess the short- and long-term reproducibility of a short food group questionnaire, and to compare its performance for estimating nutrient intakes in comparison with a 7-day diet diary. Design: Participants for the reproducibility study completed the food group questionnaire at two time points, up to 2 years apart. Participants for the performance study completed both the food group questionnaire and a 7-day diet diary a few months apart. Reproducibility was assessed by kappa statistics and percentage change between the two questionnaires; performance was assessed by kappa statistics, rank correlations and percentages of participants classified into the same and opposite thirds of intake. Setting: A random sample of participants in the Million Women Study, a population-based prospective study in the UK. Subjects: In total, 12 221 women aged 50-64 years. Results: in the reproducibility study, 75% of the food group items showed at least moderate agreement for all four time-point comparisons. Items showing fair agreement or worse tended to be those where few respondents reported eating them more than once a week, those consumed in small amounts and those relating to types of fat consumed. Compared with the diet diary, the food group questionnaire showed consistently reasonable performance for the nutrients carbohydrate, saturated fat, cholesterol, total sugars, alcohol, fibre, calcium, riboflavin, folate and vitamin C. Conclusions: The short food group questionnaire used in this study has been shown to be reproducible over time and to perform reasonably well for the assessment of a number of dietary nutrients.

The development of children of postnatally depressed mothers: evidence from the Cambridge longitudinal study

Children with a parent who suffers from depression are at raised risk for the disorder themselves. Relatively little is known about the development of psychological vulnerability to depression through childhood, particularly during infancy and early childhood. This paper describes results from a longitudinal prospective study of the development of children, studied from birth to 16 years, of mothers who experienced postnatal depression; it highlights the roles of the developing mother-child relationship, and of physiological functioning and social relationships in the development of adolescent vulnerability.

Care homes’ use of medicines study: prevalence, causes and potential harm of medication errors in care homes for older people

Introduction: Care home residents are at particular risk from medication errors, and our objective was to determine the prevalence and potential harm of prescribing, monitoring, dispensing and administration errors in UK care homes, and to identify their causes. Methods: A prospective study of a random sample of residents within a purposive sample of homes in three areas. Errors were identified by patient interview, note review, observation of practice and examination of dispensed items. Causes were understood by observation and from theoretically framed interviews with home staff, doctors and pharmacists. Potential harm from errors was assessed by expert judgement. Results: The 256 residents recruited in 55 homes were taking a mean of 8.0 medicines. One hundred and seventy-eight (69.5%) of residents had one or more errors. The mean number per resident was 1.9 errors. The mean potential harm from prescribing, monitoring, administration and dispensing errors was 2.6, 3.7, 2.1 and 2.0 (0 = no harm, 10 = death), respectively. Contributing factors from the 89 interviews included doctors who were not accessible, did not know the residents and lacked information in homes when prescribing; home staff’s high workload, lack of medicines training and drug round interruptions; lack of team work among home, practice and pharmacy; inefficient ordering systems; inaccurate medicine records and prevalence of verbal communication; and difficult to fill (and check) medication administration systems. Conclusions: That two thirds of residents were exposed to one or more medication errors is of concern. The will to improve exists, but there is a lack of overall responsibility. Action is required from all concerned.

Association between FTO variant and change in body weight and its interaction with dietary factors: the DiOGenes study

Although FTO is an established obesity-susceptibility locus, it remains unknown whether it influences weight change in adult life and whether diet attenuates this association. Therefore, we investigated the association of FTO-rs9939609 with changes in weight and waist circumference (WC) during 6.8 years follow-up in a large-scale prospective study and examined whether these associations were modified by dietary energy percentage from fat, protein, carbohydrate, or glycemic index (GI). This study comprised data from five countries of European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and was designed as a case-cohort study for weight gain. Analyses included 11,091 individuals, of whom 5,584 were cases (age (SD), 47.6 (7.5) years), defined as those with the greatest unexplained annual weight gain during follow-up and 5,507 were noncases (48.0 (7.3) years), who were compared in our case-noncase (CNC) analyses. Furthermore, 6,566 individuals (47.9 (7.3) years) selected from the total sample (all noncases and 1,059 cases) formed the random subcohort (RSC), used for continuous trait analyses. Interactions were tested by including interaction terms in the models. In the RSC-analyses, FTO-rs9939609 was associated with BMI (β (SE), 0.17 (0.08) kg·m(-2)/allele; P = 0.034) and WC (0.47 (0.21) cm/allele; P = 0.026) at baseline, but not with weight change (5.55 (12.5) g·year(-1)/allele; P = 0.66) during follow up. In the CNC-analysis, FTO-rs9939609 was associated with increased risk of being a weight-gainer (OR: 1.1; P = 0.045). We observed no interaction between FTO-rs9939609 and dietary fat, protein and carbohydrate, and GI on BMI and WC at baseline or on change in weight and WC. FTO-rs9939609 is associated with BMI and WC at baseline, but association with weight gain is weak and only observed for extreme gain. Dietary factors did not influence the associations.

Serum carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes as potential biomarkers of dietary intake and their relation with incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-Norfolk study

Background: Stable-isotope ratios of carbon (13C/12C, expressed as δ13C) and nitrogen (15N/14N, or δ15N) have been proposed as potential nutritional biomarkers to distinguish between meat, fish, and plant-based foods. Objective: The objective was to investigate dietary correlates of δ13C and δ15N and examine the association of these biomarkers with incident type 2 diabetes in a prospective study. Design: Serum δ13C and δ15N (‰) were measured by using isotope ratio mass spectrometry in a case-cohort study (n = 476 diabetes cases; n = 718 subcohort) nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–Norfolk population-based cohort. We examined dietary (food-frequency questionnaire) correlates of δ13C and δ15N in the subcohort. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated by using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Results: Mean (±SD) δ13C and δ15N were −22.8 ± 0.4‰ and 10.2 ± 0.4‰, respectively, and δ13C (r = 0.22) and δ15N (r = 0.20) were positively correlated (P < 0.001) with fish protein intake. Animal protein was not correlated with δ13C but was significantly correlated with δ15N (dairy protein: r = 0.11; meat protein: r = 0.09; terrestrial animal protein: r = 0.12, P ≤ 0.013). δ13C was inversely associated with diabetes in adjusted analyses (HR per tertile: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.65, 0.83; P-trend < 0.001], whereas δ15N was positively associated (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.38; P-trend = 0.001). Conclusions: The isotope ratios δ13C and δ15N may both serve as potential biomarkers of fish protein intake, whereas only δ15N may reflect broader animal-source protein intake in a European population. The inverse association of δ13C but a positive association of δ15N with incident diabetes should be interpreted in the light of knowledge of dietary intake and may assist in identifying dietary components that are associated with health risks and benefits.

Fracture incidence in relation to the pattern of use of hormone therapy in postmenopausal women

Context: Evidence is limited on the effects of different patterns of use of postmenopausal hormone therapy on fracture incidence and particularly on the effects of ceasing use. Objective: To investigate the effect of different patterns of hormone therapy use on fracture incidence. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective study of 138737 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 69 years recruited from the UK general population in 19961998 (the Million Women Study) and followed up for 1.9 to 3.9 years (average, 2.8 years) for fracture incidence. Main Outcome Measure: Adjusted relative risk (RR) for incident fracture (except fracture of the fingers, toes, and ribs) in hormone therapy users compared with never users at baseline. Results: A total of 5197 women (3.7%) reported 1 or more fractures, 79% resulting from falls. Current users of hormone therapy at baseline had a significantly reduced incidence of fracture (RR, 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.66; P<.001). This protection was evident soon after hormone therapy began, and the RR decreased with increasing duration of use (P=.001). Among current users at baseline the RR of fracture did not vary significantly according to whether estrogen-only, estrogen-progestin, or other types of hormones were used (RR [95% CI], 0.64 [0.58-0.71], 0.58 [0.53-0.64], and 0.67 [0.56-0.80], respectively; P=19), nor did it vary significantly according to estrogen dose or estrogen or progestin constituents. The RR associated with current use of hormone therapy did not vary significantly according to 11 personal characteristics of study participants, including their age at menopause, body mass index, and physical activity. Past users of hormone therapy at baseline experienced no significant protection against fractures (RR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.99-1.15); incidence rates returned to those of never-users within about a year of ceasing use. Conclusions: All types of hormone therapy studied confer substantial protection against fracture while they are used. This protection appears rapidly after use commences and wears off rapidly after use ceases. The older women are, the greater is their absolute reduction in fracture incidence while using hormone therapy.

Effects of enhanced consumption of fruit and vegetables on plasma antioxidant status and oxidative resistance of LDL in smokers supplemented with fish oil

Objective: To determine whether consumption of five portions of fruit and vegetables per day reduces the enhancement of oxidative stress induced by consumption of fish oil. Subjects: A total of 18 free-living healthy smoking volunteers, aged 18-63 y, were recruited by posters and e-mail in The University of Reading, and by leaflets in local shops. Design: A prospective study. Setting: Hugh Sinclair Unit of Human Nutrition, School of Food Biosciences, The University of Reading, Whiteknights PO Box 226, Reading RG6 6AP, UK. Intervention: All subjects consumed a daily supplement of 4 x 1 g fish oil capsules for 9 weeks. After 3 weeks, they consumed an additional five portions of fruits and vegetables per day, and then they returned to their normal diet for the last 3 weeks of the study. Fasting blood samples were taken at the ends of weeks 0, 3, 6 and 9. Results: The plasma concentrations of ascorbic acid, lutein, beta-cryptoxanthin, alpha-carotene and beta-carotene all significantly increased when fruit and vegetable intake was enhanced (P<0.05). Plasma concentrations of α-tocopherol, retinol and uric acid did not change significantly during the period of increased fruit and vegetable consumption. Plasma oxidative stability, assessed by the oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay, also increased from weeks 3-6 (P<0.001) but not in association with increases in measured antioxidants. Lag phase before oxidation of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) significantly decreased in the first 3 weeks of the study, reflecting the incorporation of EPA and DHA into LDL (P<0.0001). Subsequent enhanced fruit and vegetable consumption significantly reduced the susceptibility of LDL to oxidation (P<0.005). Conclusion: Fish oil reduced the oxidative stability of plasma and LDL, but the effects were partially offset by the increased consumption of fruit and vegetables.

Posttraumatic stress disorder following assault: the role of cognitive processing, trauma memory, and appraisals

Two studies of assault victims examined the roles of (a) disorganized trauma memories in the development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), (b) peritraumatic cognitive processing in the development of problematic memories and PTSD, and (c) ongoing dissociation and negative appraisals of memories in maintaining symptomatology. In the cross-sectional study (n = 81), comparisons of current, past, and no-PTSD groups suggested that peritraumatic cognitive processing is related to the development of disorganized memories and PTSD. Ongoing dissociation and negative appraisals served to maintain PTSD symptoms. The prospective study (n = 73) replicated these findings longitudinally. Cognitive and memory assessments completed within 12-weeks postassault predicted 6-month symptoms. Assault severity measures explained 22% of symptom variance; measures of cognitive processing, memory disorganization, and appraisals increased prediction accuracy to 71%.