A practical comparison of group-sequential and adaptive designs

Sequential methods provide a formal framework by which clinical trial data can be monitored as they accumulate. The results from interim analyses can be used either to modify the design of the remainder of the trial or to stop the trial as soon as sufficient evidence of either the presence or absence of a treatment effect is available. The circumstances under which the trial will be stopped with a claim of superiority for the experimental treatment, must, however, be determined in advance so as to control the overall type I error rate. One approach to calculating the stopping rule is the group-sequential method. A relatively recent alternative to group-sequential approaches is the adaptive design method. This latter approach provides considerable flexibility in changes to the design of a clinical trial at an interim point. However, a criticism is that the method by which evidence from different parts of the trial is combined means that a final comparison of treatments is not based on a sufficient statistic for the treatment difference, suggesting that the method may lack power. The aim of this paper is to compare two adaptive design approaches with the group-sequential approach. We first compare the form of the stopping boundaries obtained using the different methods. We then focus on a comparison of the power of the different trials when they are designed so as to be as similar as possible. We conclude that all methods acceptably control type I error rate and power when the sample size is modified based on a variance estimate, provided no interim analysis is so small that the asymptotic properties of the test statistic no longer hold. In the latter case, the group-sequential approach is to be preferred. Provided that asymptotic assumptions hold, the adaptive design approaches control the type I error rate even if the sample size is adjusted on the basis of an estimate of the treatment effect, showing that the adaptive designs allow more modifications than the group-sequential method.

Patents and transgenic plants

One of the recurring themes in any discussion concerning the application of genetic transformation technology is the role of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR). This term covers both the content of patents and the confidential expertise, usually related to methodology and referred to as “Trade Secrets”. This review will explain the concepts behind patent protection, and will discuss the wide-ranging scope of existing patents that cover all aspects of transgenic technology, from selectable markers and novel promoters to methods of gene introduction. Although few of these patents have any significant commercial value, there are a small number of key patents that may restrict the “freedom to operate” of any company seeking to exploit the methods. Over the last twenty years, these restrictions have forced extensive cross-licensing between ag-biotech companies and have been one of the driving forces behind the consolidation of these companies. Although such issues are often considered to be of little interest to the academic scientist working in the public sector, they are of great importance in any debate about the role of “public-good breeding” and of the relationship between the public and private sectors.

Two-photon excitation with pico-second fluorescence lifetime imaging to detect nuclear association of flavanols

Two-photon excitation enabled for the first time the observation and measurement of excited state fluorescence lifetimes from three flavanols in solution, which were ∼1.0 ns for catechin and epicatechin, but <45 ps for epigallocatechin gallate (EGCG). The shorter lifetime for EGCG is in line with a lower fluorescence quantum yield of 0.003 compared to catechin (0.015) and epicatechin (0.018). In vivo experiments with onion cells demonstrated that tryptophan and quercetin, which tend to be major contributors of background fluorescence in plant cells, have sufficiently low cross sections for two-photon excitation at 630 nm and therefore do not interfere with detection of externally added or endogenous flavanols in Allium cepa or Taxus baccata cells. Applying two-photon excitation to flavanols enabled 3-D fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy and showed that added EGCG penetrated the whole nucleus of onion cells. Interestingly, EGCG and catechin showed different lifetime behaviour when bound to the nucleus: EGCG lifetime increased from <45 to 200 ps, whilst catechin lifetime decreased from 1.0 ns to 500 ps. Semi-quantitative measurements revealed that the relative ratios of EGCG concentrations in nucleoli associated vesicles: nucleus: cytoplasm were ca. 100:10:1. Solution experiments with catechin, epicatechin and histone proteins provided preliminary evidence, via the appearance of a second lifetime (τ2 = 1.9–3.1 ns), that both flavanols may be interacting with histone proteins. We conclude that there is significant nuclear absorption of flavanols. This advanced imaging using two-photon excitation and biophysical techniques described here will prove valuable for probing the intracellular trafficking and functions of flavanols, such as EGCG, which is the major flavanol of green tea.

Optimal frame length for keeping normalized goodput with lowest requirement on BER

This paper presents an adaptive frame length mechanism based on a cross-layer analysis of intrinsic relations between the MAC frame length, bit error rate (BER) of the wireless link and normalized goodput. The proposed mechanism selects the optimal frame length that keeps the service normalized goodput at required levels while satisfying the lowest requirement on the BER, thus increasing the transmission reliability. Numerical results are provided and show that an optimal frame length satisfying the lowest BER requirement does indeed exist. The performance of BER requirement as a function of the MAC frame length is evaluated and compared for transmission scenarios with and without automatic repeat request (ARQ). Furthermore, issues related to the MAC overhead length are also discussed to illuminate the functionality and performance of the proposed mechanism.

Modelling the time-evolution of phytoplankton size spectra from satellite remote sensing

A dynamic size-structured model is developed for phytoplankton and nutrients in the oceanic mixed layer and applied to extract phytoplankton biomass at discrete size fractions from remotely sensed, ocean-colour data. General relationships between cell size and biophysical processes (such as sinking, grazing, and primary production) of phytoplankton were included in the model through a bottom–up approach. Time-dependent, mixed-layer depth was used as a forcing variable, and a sequential data-assimilation scheme was implemented to derive model trajectories. From a given time-series, the method produces estimates of size-structured biomass at every observation, so estimates seasonal succession of individual phytoplankton size, derived here from remote sensing for the first time. From these estimates, normalized phytoplankton biomass size spectra over a period of 9 years were calculated for one location in the North Atlantic. Further analysis demonstrated that strong relationships exist between the seasonal trends of the estimated size spectra and the mixed-layer depth, nutrient biomass, and total chlorophyll. The results contain useful information on the time-dependent biomass flux in the pelagic ecosystem.

Linkages between property asset returns and interest rates: evidence for the UK

This paper considers the effect of short- and long-term interest rates, and interest rate spreads upon real estate index returns in the UK. Using Johansen's vector autoregressive framework, it is found that the real estate index cointegrates with the term spread, but not with the short or long rates themselves. Granger causality tests indicate that movements in short term interest rates and the spread cause movements in the returns series. However, decomposition of the forecast error variances from VAR models indicate that changes in these variables can only explain a small proportion of the overall variability of the returns, and that the effect has fully worked through after two months. The results suggest that these financial variables could potentially be used as leading indicators for real estate markets, with corresponding implications for return predictability.

Episodic nonstationarity in exchange rates

We examine a method recently proposed by Hinich and Patterson (mimeo, University of Texas at Austin, 1995) for testing the validity of specifying a GARCH error structure for financial time series data in the context of a set of ten daily Sterling exchange rates. The results demonstrate that there are statistical structures present in the data that cannot be captured by a GARCH model, or any of its variants. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the recent voluminous literature which attempts to model financial asset returns using this family of models.

Antidepressant treatment and emotional processing: can we dissociate the roles of serotonin and noradrenaline?

The ability to match individual patients to tailored treatments has the potential to greatly improve outcomes for individuals suffering from major depression. In particular, while the vast majority of antidepressant treatments affect either serotonin or noradrenaline or a combination of these two neurotransmitters, it is not known whether there are particular patients or symptom profiles which respond preferentially to the potentiation of serotonin over noradrenaline or vice versa. Experimental medicine models suggest that the primary mode of action of these treatments may be to remediate negative biases in emotional processing. Such models may provide a useful framework for interrogating the specific actions of antidepressants. Here, we therefore review evidence from studies examining the effects of drugs which potentiate serotonin, noradrenaline or a combination of both neurotransmitters on emotional processing. These results suggest that antidepressants targeting serotonin and noradrenaline may have some specific actions on emotion and reward processing which could be used to improve tailoring of treatment or to understand the effects of dual-reuptake inhibition. Specifically, serotonin may be particularly important in alleviating distress symptoms, while noradrenaline may be especially relevant to anhedonia. The data reviewed here also suggest that noradrenergic-based treatments may have earlier effects on emotional memory that those which affect serotonin.

Association of vitamin D status with arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk: a mendelian randomisation study

BACKGROUND: Low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration is associated with high arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk, but whether this association is causal is unknown. We used a mendelian randomisation approach to test whether 25(OH)D concentration is causally associated with blood pressure and hypertension risk. METHODS: In this mendelian randomisation study, we generated an allele score (25[OH]D synthesis score) based on variants of genes that affect 25(OH)D synthesis or substrate availability (CYP2R1 and DHCR7), which we used as a proxy for 25(OH)D concentration. We meta-analysed data for up to 108 173 individuals from 35 studies in the D-CarDia collaboration to investigate associations between the allele score and blood pressure measurements. We complemented these analyses with previously published summary statistics from the International Consortium on Blood Pressure (ICBP), the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, and the Global Blood Pressure Genetics (Global BPGen) consortium. FINDINGS: In phenotypic analyses (up to n=49 363), increased 25(OH)D concentration was associated with decreased systolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, -0·12 mm Hg, 95% CI -0·20 to -0·04; p=0·003) and reduced odds of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·97-0·99; p=0·0003), but not with decreased diastolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, -0·02 mm Hg, -0·08 to 0·03; p=0·37). In meta-analyses in which we combined data from D-CarDia and the ICBP (n=146 581, after exclusion of overlapping studies), each 25(OH)D-increasing allele of the synthesis score was associated with a change of -0·10 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (-0·21 to -0·0001; p=0·0498) and a change of -0·08 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (-0·15 to -0·02; p=0·01). When D-CarDia and consortia data for hypertension were meta-analysed together (n=142 255), the synthesis score was associated with a reduced odds of hypertension (OR per allele, 0·98, 0·96-0·99; p=0·001). In instrumental variable analysis, each 10% increase in genetically instrumented 25(OH)D concentration was associated with a change of -0·29 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (-0·52 to -0·07; p=0·01), a change of -0·37 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (-0·73 to 0·003; p=0·052), and an 8·1% decreased odds of hypertension (OR 0·92, 0·87-0·97; p=0·002). INTERPRETATION: Increased plasma concentrations of 25(OH)D might reduce the risk of hypertension. This finding warrants further investigation in an independent, similarly powered study.

Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe

Some recent winters in Western Europe have been characterized by the occurrence of multiple extratropical cyclones following a similar path. The occurrence of such cyclone clusters leads to large socio-economic impacts due to damaging winds, storm surges, and floods. Recent studies have statistically characterized the clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe and hypothesized potential physical mechanisms responsible for their formation. Here we analyze 4 months characterized by multiple cyclones over Western Europe (February 1990, January 1993, December 1999, and January 2007). The evolution of the eddy driven jet stream, Rossby wave-breaking, and upstream/downstream cyclone development are investigated to infer the role of the large-scale flow and to determine if clustered cyclones are related to each other. Results suggest that optimal conditions for the occurrence of cyclone clusters are provided by a recurrent extension of an intensified eddy driven jet toward Western Europe lasting at least 1 week. Multiple Rossby wave-breaking occurrences on both the poleward and equatorward flanks of the jet contribute to the development of these anomalous large-scale conditions. The analysis of the daily weather charts reveals that upstream cyclone development (secondary cyclogenesis, where new cyclones are generated on the trailing fronts of mature cyclones) is strongly related to cyclone clustering, with multiple cyclones developing on a single jet streak. The present analysis permits a deeper understanding of the physical reasons leading to the occurrence of cyclone families over the North Atlantic, enabling a better estimation of the associated cumulative risk over Europe.

Self-congruence, functional congruence, and destination choice

This study's purpose is to investigate the effects of self-congruence and functional congruence on tourists' destination choice. The present research contributes to the gap in the consumer behavior literature by examining the relationships among self-congruence, functional congruence, and destination choice. Based on a sample of 367 British residents, the three research hypotheses are tested using multinomial logistic regression analysis. The study results suggest that a tourist's destination choice is influenced strongly by functional congruence, but not by self-congruence. The article closes with theoretical and managerial implications as well as future research directions.