Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

The persistence of real estate fund performance

This paper examines the short and long-term persistence of tax-exempt real estate funds in the UK through the use of winner-loser contingency table methodology. The persistence tests are applied to a database of varying numbers of funds from a low of 16 to a high of 27 using quarterly returns over the 12 years from 1990 Q1 to 2001 Q4. The overall conclusion is that the real estate funds in the UK show little evidence of persistence in the short-term (quarterly and semi-annual data) or for data over a considerable length of time (bi-annual to six yearly intervals). In contrast, the results are better for annual data with evidence of significant performance persistence. Thus at this stage, it seems that an annual evaluation period, provides the best discrimination of the winner and loser phenomenon in the real estate market. This result is different from equity and bond studies, where it seems that the repeat winner phenomenon is stronger over shorter periods of evaluation. These results require careful interpretation, however, as the results show that when only small samples are used significant adjustments must be made to correct for small sample bias and second the conclusions are sensitive to the length of the evaluation period and specific test used. Nonetheless, it seems that persistence in performance of real estate funds in the UK does exist, at least for the annual data, and it appears to be a guide to beating the pack in the long run. Furthermore, although the evidence of persistence in performance for the overall sample of funds is limited, we have found evidence that two funds were consistent winners over this period, whereas no one fund could be said to be a consistent loser.

Endgame table testing of studies - 1

The van der Heijden Studies Database has been reviewed to identify 'Draw Studies' with sub-7-man positions in the main line which are not draws. The data-mining method is described. Some 1,500 studies were faulted, 700 for the first time: 14 of the more interesting faults are highlighted and discussed.

Endgame table testing of studies - II

The van der Heijden Studies Database (Version III) has been reviewed to identify 'Win Studies' with sub-7-man positions in the main line which are not wins for White. Some studies were faulted, A number for the first time: 21 of the more interesting escapes by Black are highlighted, themed and discussed.

The periodic table: Molybdenum

Chemical & Engineering News celebrates the Periodic Table of the Elements on the magazine's 80th anniversary.

Increased temperature sensitivity of net DOC production from ombrotrophic peat due to water table draw-down.

The production and release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat soils is thought to be sensitive to changes in climate, specifically changes in temperature and rainfall. However, little is known about the actual rates of net DOC production in response to temperature and water table draw-down, particularly in comparison to carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes. To explore these relationships, we carried out a laboratory experiment on intact peat soil cores under controlled temperature and water table conditions to determine the impact and interaction of each of these climatic factors on net DOC production. We found a significant interaction (P < 0.001) between temperature, water table draw-down and net DOC production across the whole soil core (0 to −55 cm depth). This corresponded to an increase in the Q10 (i.e. rise in the rate of net DOC production over a 10 °C range) from 1.84 under high water tables and anaerobic conditions to 3.53 under water table draw-down and aerobic conditions between −10 and − 40 cm depth. However, increases in net DOC production were only seen after water tables recovered to the surface as secondary changes in soil water chemistry driven by sulphur redox reactions decreased DOC solubility, and therefore DOC concentrations, during periods of water table draw-down. Furthermore, net microbial consumption of DOC was also apparent at − 1 cm depth and was an additional cause of declining DOC concentrations during dry periods. Therefore, although increased temperature and decreased rainfall could have a significant effect on net DOC release from peatlands, these climatic effects could be masked by other factors controlling the biological consumption of DOC in addition to soil water chemistry and DOC solubility. These findings highlight both the sensitivity of DOC release from ombrotrophic peat to episodic changes in water table draw-down, and the need to disentangle complex and interacting controls on DOC dynamics to fully understand the impact of environmental change on this system.

Acquisition of automatic imitation is sensitive to sensorimotor contingency

The associative sequence learning model proposes that the development of the mirror system depends on the same mechanisms of associative learning that mediate Pavlovian and instrumental conditioning. To test this model, two experiments used the reduction of automatic imitation through incompatible sensorimotor training to assess whether mirror system plasticity is sensitive to contingency (i.e., the extent to which activation of one representation predicts activation of another). In Experiment 1, residual automatic imitation was measured following incompatible training in which the action stimulus was a perfect predictor of the response (contingent) or not at all predictive of the response (noncontingent). A contingency effect was observed: There was less automatic imitation indicative of more learning in the contingent group. Experiment 2 replicated this contingency effect and showed that, as predicted by associative learning theory, it can be abolished by signaling trials in which the response occurs in the absence of an action stimulus. These findings support the view that mirror system development depends on associative learning and indicate that this learning is not purely Hebbian. If this is correct, associative learning theory could be used to explain, predict, and intervene in mirror system development.

The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

In the intersection of the angles of a table, there is more truth than in all the tangle of muscles: Futurism as anti-humanist critique

The recent celebrations of the centenary of the publication of the Futurist manifesto led to a renewed discussion of the ideas and artworks of the Italian artists’ group. Jacques Rancière related the Futurist ethos with the modernist project of liberating art from representation. Franco ‘Bifo’ Berardi, in his post-Futurist manifesto, also identified a historical irony at play in the emptying out of Futurism’s promise: a liberated mechanical humanity did indeed materialize, in a global economic system premised on financial servitude to the future via debt. However, these models continue to assess Futurism against an unchallenged humanism, finding it either supporting ideals of freedom and human rights despite itself, or else lacking in these areas. But Futurism is potentially more relevant than ever not in spite of its anti-humanist agenda, precisely because of it. Tom McCarthy annexes not Futurist art but Futurist writing to an emerging object oriented ontology that seeks to challenge the primacy of the human. If Futurism is to be repurposed as a critical concept, it can only do so by countering the humanist myth the liberal subject that underlies the current cultural and political hegemony of neo-liberalism.