Human gut microbiota and its relationship to health and disease

Probiotics are live microorganisms that confer a health benefit on the host when administered in appropriate amounts. Over 700 randomized, controlled, human studies have been conducted with probiotics thus far, with the results providing strong support for the use of probiotics in the clinical prevention or treatment of gastrointestinal tract disorders and metabolic syndrome. The present review is based on webinar presentations that were developed by the American Gastroenterological Association (AGA) in partnership with the International Scientific Association for Probiotics and Prebiotics (ISAPP) and the North American branch of the International Life Sciences Institute (ILSI North America). The presentations provided gastroenterologists and researchers with fundamental and current scientific information on the influence of gut microbiota on human health and disease, as well as clinical intervention strategies and practical guidelines for the use of probiotics and prebiotics.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.