Status and Potential of Smallholder Livestock Production Systems in Xishuangbanna, southern P.R. China

With Chinas rapid economic development during the last decades, the national demand for livestock products has quadrupled within the last 20 years. Most of that increase in demand has been answered by subsidized industrialized production systems, while million of smallholders, which still provide the larger share of livestock products in the country, have been neglected. Fostering those systems would help China to lower its strong urban migration streams, enhance the livelihood of poorer rural population and provide environmentally save livestock products which have a good chance to satisfy customers demand for ecological food. Despite their importance, China’s smallholder livestock keepers have not yet gained appropriate attention from governmental authorities and researchers. However, profound analysis of those systems is required so that adequate support can lead to a better resource utilization and productivity in the sector. To this aim, this pilot study analyzes smallholder livestock production systems in Xishuangbanna, located in southern China. The area is bordered by Lao and Myanmar and geographically counts as tropical region. Its climate is characterized by dry and temperate winters and hot summers with monsoon rains from May to October. While the regionis plain, at about 500 m asl above sea level in the south, outliers of the Himalaya mountains reach out into the north of Xishuangbanna, where the highest peak reaches 2400 m asl. Except of one larger city, Jinghong, Xishuangbanna mainly is covered by tropical rainforest, areas under agricultural cultivation and villages. The major income is generated through inner-Chinese tourism and agricultural production. Intensive rubber plantations are distinctive for the lowland plains while small-scaled traditional farms are scattered in the mountane regions. In order to determine the current state and possible future chances of smallholder livestock production in that region, this study analyzed the current status of the smallholder livestock sector in the Naban River National Nature Reserve (NRNNR), an area which is largely representative for the whole prefecture. It covers an area of about 50square kilometer and reaches from 470 up to 2400 m asl. About 5500 habitants of different ethnic origin are situated in 24 villages. All data have been collected between October 2007 and May 2010. Three major objectives have been addressed in the study: 1. Classifying existing pig production systems and exploring respective pathways for development 2. Quantifying the performance of pig breeding systemsto identify bottlenecks for production 3. Analyzing past and current buffalo utilization to determine the chances and opportunities of buffalo keeping in the future In order to classify the different pig production s ystems, a baseline survey (n=204, stratified cluster sampling) was carried out to gain data about livestock species, numbers, management practices, cultivated plant species and field sizes as well associo-economic characteristics. Sampling included two clusters at village level (altitude, ethnic affiliation), resulting in 13 clusters of which 13-17 farms were interviewed respectively. Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CatPCA) and a two-step clustering algorithm have been applied to identify determining farm characteristics and assort recorded households into classes of livestock production types. The variables keep_sow_yes/no, TLU_pig, TLU_buffalo, size_of_corn_fields, altitude_class, size_of_tea_plantationand size_of_rubber_fieldhave been found to be major determinants for the characterization of the recorded farms. All farms have extensive or semi-intensive livestock production, pigs and buffaloes are predominant livestock species while chicken and aquaculture are available but play subordinate roles for livelihoods. All pig raisers rely on a single local breed, which is known as Small Ear Pig (SMEP) in the region. Three major production systemshave been identified: Livestock-corn based LB; 41%), rubber based (RB; 39%) and pig based (PB;20%) systems. RB farms earn high income from rubber and fatten 1.9 ±1.80 pigs per household (HH), often using purchased pig feed at markets. PB farms own similar sized rubber plantations and raise 4.7 ±2.77 pigs per HH, with fodder mainly being cultivated and collected in theforest. LB farms grow corn, rice and tea and keep 4.6 ±3.32 pigs per HH, also fed with collected and cultivated fodder. Only 29% of all pigs were marketed (LB: 20%; RB: 42%; PB: 25%), average annual mortality was 4.0 ±4.52 pigs per farm (LB: 4.6 ±3.68; RB: 1.9 ±2.14; PB: 7.1 ±10.82). Pig feed mainly consists of banana pseudo stem, corn and rice hives and is prepared in batches about two to three times per week. Such fodder might be sufficient in energy content but lacks appropriate content of protein. Pigs therefore suffer from malnutrition, which becomes most critical in the time before harvest season around October. Farmers reported high occurrences of gastrointestinal parasites in carcasses and often pig stables were wet and filled with manure. Deficits in nutritional and hygienic management are major limits for development and should be the first issues addressed to improve productivity. SME pork was found to be known and referred by local customers in town and by richer lowland farmers. However, high prices and lacking availability of SME pork at local wet-markets were the reasons which limited purchase. If major management constraints are overcome, pig breeders (PB and LB farms) could increase the share of marketed pigs for town markets and provide fatteners to richer RB farmers. RB farmers are interested in fattening pigs for home consumption but do not show any motivation for commercial pig raising. To determine the productivity of input factors in pig production, eproductive performance, feed quality and quantity as well as weight development of pigs under current management were recorded. The data collection included a progeny history survey covering 184 sows and 437 farrows, bi-weekly weighing of 114 pigs during a 16-months time-span on 21 farms (10 LB and 11 PB) as well as the daily recording of feed quality and quantity given to a defined number of pigs on the same 21 farms. Feed samples of all recorded ingredients were analyzed for their respective nutrient content. Since no literature values on thedigestibility of banana pseudo stem – which is a major ingredient of traditional pig feed in NRNNR – were found, a cross-sectional digestibility trial with 2x4 pigs has been conducted on a station in the research area. With the aid of PRY Herd Life Model, all data have been utilized to determine thesystems’ current (Status Quo = SQ) output and the productivity of the input factor “feed” in terms of saleable life weight per kg DM feed intake and monetary value of output per kg DM feed intake.Two improvement scenarios were simulated, assuming 1) that farmers adopt a culling managementthat generates the highest output per unit input (Scenario 1; SC I) and 2) that through improved feeding, selected parameters of reproduction are improved by 30% (SC II). Daily weight gain averaged 55 ± 56 g per day between day 200 and 600. The average feed energy content of traditional feed mix was 14.92 MJ ME. Age at first farrowing averaged 14.5 ± 4.34 months, subsequent inter-farrowing interval was 11.4 ± 2.73 months. Littersize was 5.8 piglets and weaning age was 4.3 ± 0.99 months. 18% of piglets died before weaning. Simulating pig production at actualstatus, it has been show that monetary returns on inputs (ROI) is negative (1:0.67), but improved (1:1.2) when culling management was optimized so that highest output is gained per unit feed input. If in addition better feeding, controlled mating and better resale prices at fixed dates were simulated, ROI further increased to 1:2.45, 1:2.69, 1:2.7 and 1:3.15 for four respective grower groups. Those findings show the potential of pork production, if basic measures of improvement are applied. Futureexploration of the environment, including climate, market-season and culture is required before implementing the recommended measures to ensure a sustainable development of a more effective and resource conserving pork production in the future. The two studies have shown that the production of local SME pigs plays an important role in traditional farms in NRNNR but basic constraints are limiting their productivity. However, relatively easy approaches are sufficient for reaching a notable improvement. Also there is a demand for more SME pork on local markets and, if basic constraints have been overcome, pig farmers could turn into more commercial producers and provide pork to local markets. By that, environmentally safe meat can be offered to sensitive consumers while farmers increase their income and lower the risk of external shocks through a more diverse income generating strategy. Buffaloes have been found to be the second important livestock species on NRNNR farms. While they have been a core resource of mixed smallholderfarms in the past, the expansion of rubber tree plantations and agricultural mechanization are reasons for decreased swamp buffalo numbers today. The third study seeks to predict future utilization of buffaloes on different farm types in NRNNR by analyzing the dynamics of its buffalo population and land use changes over time and calculating labor which is required for keeping buffaloes in view of the traction power which can be utilized for field preparation. The use of buffaloes for field work and the recent development of the egional buffalo population were analyzed through interviews with 184 farmers in 2007/2008 and discussions with 62 buffalo keepers in 2009. While pig based farms (PB; n=37) have abandoned buffalo keeping, 11% of the rubber based farms (RB; n=71) and 100% of the livestock-corn based farms (LB; n=76) kept buffaloes in 2008. Herd size was 2.5 ±1.80 (n=84) buffaloes in early 2008 and 2.2 ±1.69 (n=62) in 2009. Field work on own land was the main reason forkeeping buffaloes (87.3%), but lending work buffaloes to neighbors (79.0%) was also important. Other purposes were transport of goods (16.1%), buffalo trade (11.3%) and meat consumption(6.4%). Buffalo care required 6.2 ±3.00 working hours daily, while annual working time of abuffalo was 294 ±216.6 hours. The area ploughed with buffaloes remained constant during the past 10 years despite an expansion of land cropped per farm. Further rapid replacement of buffaloes by tractors is expected in the near future. While the work economy is drastically improved by the use of tractors, buffaloes still can provide cheap work force and serve as buffer for economic shocks on poorer farms. Especially poor farms, which lack alternative assets that could quickly be liquidizedin times of urgent need for cash, should not abandon buffalo keeping. Livestock has been found to be a major part of small mixed farms in NRNNR. The general productivity was low in both analyzed species, buffaloes and pigs. Productivity of pigs can be improved through basic adjustments in feeding, reproductive and hygienic management, and with external support pig production could further be commercialized to provide pork and weaners to local markets and fattening farms. Buffalo production is relatively time intensive, and only will be of importance in the future to very poor farms and such farms that cultivate very small terraces on steep slopes. These should be encouraged to further keep buffaloes. With such measures, livestock production in NRNNR has good chances to stay competitive in the future.

Climate change and hunger as the challenges in the global food system

In the last decades, there has been a growing tendency towards international trade and globalisation, particularly leading to a significant increase in flows of agricultural commodities worldwide. From a macroeconomic perspective, the commodity projections are more optimistic than the previous years and the long run tendency shows an increasing demand for feedstock. However, the strong shifts of shocks and fluctuations (in terms of prices and volumes) are a concern to global food security, with the number of hungry people rising to nearly one billion. Agriculture is a main user of natural resources, and it has a strong link with rural societies and the environment. Forecasted impacts from climate change, limited productive endorsements and emerging rivals on crop production, such bio-energy, aggravate the panorama on food scarcity. In this context, it is a great challenge on farming and food systems to reduce global hunger and produce in sustainable ways adequate supplies for food, feed, and non-food uses. The main objective of this work is to question the sustainability of food and agriculture systems. It is particularly interesting to know its role and if it will be able to respond to a growing population with increasing food demand in a world where pressure on land, water and other natural resources are already evident, and, moreover, climate change will also condition and impact the outcome. Furthermore, a deeper focus will be set on developing countries, which are expected to emerge and take a leading role in the international arena. This short paper is structured as follows: Section I, “Introduction”, describes the social situation regarding hunger, Section II, “Global Context”, attempts to summarise the current scenario in the international trading scheme and present the emerging rivals for primary resources, and in Section III, “Climate Change”, presents an overview of possible changes in the sector and future perspectives in the field. Finally, in Section IV, “Conclusion”, the main conclusions are presented.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.

Assessing the impact of agricultural drought on maize prices in Kenya with the approach of the SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI remote sensing

The high cost of maize in Kenya is basically driven by East African regional commodity demand forces and agricultural drought. The production of maize, which is a common staple food in Kenya, is greatly affected by agricultural drought. However, calculations of drought risk and impact on maize production in Kenya is limited by the scarcity of reliable rainfall data. The objective of this study was to apply a novel hyperspectral remote sensing method to modelling temporal fluctuations of maize production and prices in five markets in Kenya. SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI time series were corrected for seasonal effects by computing the standardized NDVI anomalies. The maize residual price time series was further related to the NDVI seasonal anomalies using a multiple linear regression modelling approach. The result shows a moderately strong positive relationship (0.67) between residual price series and global maize prices. Maize prices were high during drought periods (i.e. negative NDVI anomalies) and low during wet seasons (i.e. positive NDVI anomalies). This study concludes that NDVI is a good index for monitoring the evolution of maize prices and food security emergency planning in Kenya. To obtain a very strong correlation for the relationship between the wholesale maize price and the global maize price, future research could consider adding other price-driving factors into the regression models.

Can commercialization of NTFPs alleviate poverty? A case study of Ricinodendron heudelotii (Baill.) Pierre ex Pax. kernel marketing in Cameroon

Ricinodendron heudelotii (Baill.) Pierre ex Pax. kernel (njansang) commercialization has been promoted by the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF) in project villages in Cameroon with the aim to alleviate poverty for small-scale farmers. We evaluated to what extent development interventions improved the financial situation of households by comparing project and control households. The financial importance of njansang to household livelihoods between 2005 and 2010 was investigated through semi-structured questionnaires with retrospective questions, focus group discussions, interviews and wealth-ranking exercises. The importance of njansang increased strongly in the entire study region and the increase was significantly larger in project households. Moreover, absolute numbers of income from njansang commercialization as well as relative importance of njansang in total cash income, increased significantly more in project households (p < 0.05). Although the lower wealth class households could increase their income through njansang trade, the upper wealth class households benefited more from the projects' interventions. Group sales as conducted in project villages did not lead to significantly higher prices and should be reconsidered. Hence, promotion of njansang had a positive effect on total cash income and can still be improved. The corporative actors for njansang commercialization are encouraged to adapt their strategies to ensure that also the lower wealth class households benefit from the conducted project interventions. In this respect, frequent project monitoring and impact analysis are important tools to accomplish this adaptation.

Domestic policy responses to the food price crisis: The case of Bolivia

In face of the global food crisis of 2007-2008, severe concerns arose about how developing countries would be affected by the extreme short-term fluctuations in international commodity prices. We examine the effects of the crisis on Bolivia, one of the poorest countries of the Americas. We focus on the effectiveness of the domestic policy interventions in preventing spillovers of the development of international food prices to domestic markets. Using a cointegration model, we study price interdependencies of wheat flour, sunflower oil and poultry. The analysis suggests that the policy measures taken had little effect on food security during the food crisis. Throughout the entire period, perfect price transmission between the Bolivian poultry and sunflower oil markets and the respective international reference markets existed. Bolivian prices were determined by international prices and the policy interventions in the markets of these two commodities were not found to have had an effect. The government's large-scale wheat flour imports did not shield Bolivian consumers from the shocks of international prices.

CAPM und Behavioral Finance - Versuch einer Synthese

Seit Etablierung der ersten Börsen als Marktplatz für fungible Güter sind Marktteilnehmer und die Wissenschaft bemüht, Erklärungen für das Zustandekommen von Marktpreisen zu finden. Im Laufe der Zeit wurden diverse Modelle entwickelt. Allen voran ist das neoklassische Capital Asset Pricing Modell (CAPM) zu nennen. Die Neoklassik sieht den Akteur an den Finanzmärkten als emotionslosen und streng rationalen Entscheider, dem sog. homo oeconomicus. Psychologische Einflussfaktoren bei der Preisbildung bleiben unbeachtet. Mit der Behavioral Finance hat sich ein neuer Zweig zur Erklärung von Börsenkursen und deren Bewegungen entwickelt. Die Behavioral Finance sprengt die enge Sichtweise der Neoklassik und geht davon aus, dass psychologische Effekte die Entscheidung der Finanzakteure beeinflussen und dabei zu teilweise irrational und emotional geprägten Kursänderungen führen. Eines der Hauptprobleme der Behavioral Finance liegt allerdings in der fehlenden formellen Ermittelbarkeit und Testbarkeit der einzelnen psychologischen Effekte. Anders als beim CAPM, wo die einzelnen Parameter klar mathematisch bestimmbar sind, besteht die Behavioral Finance im Wesentlichen aus psychologischen Definitionen von kursbeeinflussenden Effekten. Die genaue Wirkrichtung und Intensität der Effekte kann, mangels geeigneter Modelle, nicht ermittelt werden. Ziel der Arbeit ist es, eine Abwandlung des CAPM zu ermitteln, die es ermöglicht, neoklassische Annahmen durch die Erkenntnisse des Behavioral Finance zu ergänzen. Mittels der technischen Analyse von Marktpreisen wird versucht die Effekte der Behavioral Finance formell darstellbar und berechenbar zu machen. Von Praktikern wird die technische Analyse dazu verwendet, aus Kursverläufen die Stimmungen und Intentionen der Marktteilnehmer abzuleiten. Eine wissenschaftliche Fundierung ist bislang unterblieben. Ausgehend von den Erkenntnissen der Behavioral Finance und der technischen Analyse wird das klassische CAPM um psychologische Faktoren ergänzt, indem ein Multi-Beta-CAPM (Behavioral-Finance-CAPM) definiert wird, in das psychologisch fundierte Parameter der technischen Analyse einfließen. In Anlehnung an den CAPM-Test von FAMA und FRENCH (1992) werden das klassische CAPM und das Behavioral-Finance-CAPM getestet und der psychologische Erklärungsgehalt der technischen Analyse untersucht. Im Untersuchungszeitraum kann dem Behavioral-Finance-CAPM ein deutlich höherer Erklärungsgehalt gegenüber dem klassischen CAPM zugesprochen werden.

How do domestic policies affect the integration of Ethiopian fertiliser markets with world markets?

Frequent shifts in policy on fertiliser markets have occurred in Ethiopia with the aim of facilitating both physical and economic access of farmers to fertiliser. The last shift was the introduction of a monopoly on each stage of the supply chain in 2008. Furthermore, government control of prices and margins as well as stockholding programmes are also present on the markets. This paper evaluates the effect of these policies on the integration of domestic with world markets of fertiliser, using cointegration methods. Time series data of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and urea prices on world, import and retail markets between 1971 and 2012 are used. The findings show high transmission of price signals from world markets to import prices for both DAP and urea. However, between import and retail prices there is no evidence of cointegration for urea, while for DAP full price transmission is concluded. In the retail market, domestic transaction costs associated with storing large volumes of fertiliser act as a buffer between import and retail prices, especially for urea. Therefore, economic benefits could be achieved by reducing the size of stocks and revising the demand estimation process.