3 resultados para Modelagem temporal multivariada

em Brock University, Canada


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Although local grape growers view bird depredation as a significant economic issue, the most recent research on the problem in the Niagara Peninsula is three decades old. Peer-reviewed publications on the subject are rare, and researchers have struggled to develop bird-damage assessment techniques useful for facilitating management programmes. I used a variation of Stevenson and Virgo's (1971) visual estimation procedure to quantify spatial and temporal trends in bird damage to grapes within single vineyard plots at two locations near St. Catharines, Ontario. I present a novel approach to managing the rank-data from visual estimates, which is unprecedented in its sensitivity to spatial trends in bird damage. I also review its valid use in comparative statistical analysis. Spatial trends in 3 out of 4 study plots confirmed a priori predictions about localisation in bird damage based on optimal foraging from a central location (staging area). Damage to grape clusters was: (1) greater near the edges of vineyard plots and decreased with distance towards the center, (2) greater in areas adjacent to staging areas for birds, and (3) vertically stratified, with upper-tier clusters sustaining more damage than lower-tier clusters. From a management perspective, this predictive approach provides vineyard owners with the ability to identify the portions of plots likely to be most susceptible to bird damage, and thus the opportunity to focus deterrent measures in these areas. Other management considerations at Henry of Pelham were: (1) wind damage to ice-wine Riesling and Vidal was much higher than bird damage, (2) plastic netting with narrow mesh provided more effective protection agsiinst birds than nylon netting with wider mesh, and (3) no trends in relative susceptibility of varietals by colour (red vs green) were evident.

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A series of permanent line transects established on fourteen reefs on the eastern seaboard of the Gulf of Thailand were monitored through a three-year period (1995- 1998) using a video transect method. Hierarchical cluster analysis shows three distinctive reef community types dominated by 1) Porites, 2) Acropora and 3) zoantharians. The reefs are developed under naturally turbid conditions and relatively low salinity due to the proximity of four major river outlets located in the uppermost area of the gulf. The number of Acroporid species on the reefs is positively correlated with distance from the major flver outlets. Eighty-seven species of scleractinian coral were found on the transects. Over the three-year period, the comparison of 1995-97-98 matched stations using Repeated Measures ANOV A reveals no significant time-dependent change in percent area cover of reef components except for an overall significant reduction in the faviid coral component. In the 1997-98 matched station comparison, statistical tests reveal significant increases in both Acropora and Porites components that translated into an overall increase in total living coral cover. These findings indicate that the overall environmental conditions have been favorable for coral growth. Outcompetition of massive corals by faster growing corals on several reefs also indicates conditions favorable for reef expansion. Growth of newlyformed Porites colonies over primary rock substrate and dead coral skeleton was presumably responsible for its rapid increase. Although these reefs are in an area of rapid industrialization and population growth, resultant anthropogenic effects have not yet stopped active coral accretion.

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Female enthusiasm towards engaging in physical education (PE) significantly decreases with age as it provides females with positive and negative emotional experiences. This study examined emotions within four grade nine female PE soccer and fitness classes (N = 67). Emotional patterns were studied over time and across two units of instruction and in relation to student grades. A mixed-method approach was utilized assessing the state emotions of shame, enjoyment, anxiety, and social physique anxiety (SPA). Results revealed unsatisfactory internal consistency for shame and thus it was removed. Statistical analysis revealed no significant changes in emotions over time, whereas qualitative analysis found that state emotions were inconsistent. Statistical analysis indicated that students in the fitness classes reported significantly higher levels of anxiety and SPA on the final class (p < .01). Qualitative analysis signaled different origins and themes of students‟ emotions. No predictive relationship between emotion and students‟ grade was found.