20 resultados para predictive value of tests

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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The accurate estimation of total daily energy expenditure (TEE) in chronic kidney patients is essential to allow the provision of nutritional requirements; however, it remains a challenge to collect actual physical activity and resting energy expenditure in maintenance dialysis patients. The direct measurement of TEE by direct calorimetry or doubly labeled water cannot be used easily so that, in clinical practice, TEE is usually estimated from resting energy expenditure and physical activity. Prediction equations may also be used to estimate resting energy expenditure; however, their use has been poorly documented in dialysis patients. Recently, a new system called SenseWear Armband (BodyMedia, Pittsburgh, PA) was developed to assess TEE, but so far no data have been published in chronic kidney disease patients. The aim of this review is to describe new measurements of energy expenditure and physical activity in chronic kidney disease patients.

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The unresolved issue of false-positive D-dimer results in the diagnostic workup of pulmonary embolism Pulmonary embolism (PE) remains a difficult diagnosis as it lacks specific symptoms and clinical signs. After the determination of the pretest PE probability by a validated clinical score, D-dimers (DD) is the initial blood test in the majority of patients whose probability is low or intermediate. The low specificity of DD results in a high number of false-positives that then require thoracic angio-CT. A new clinical decision rule, called the Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out criteria (PERC), identifies patients at such low risk that PE can be safely ruled-out without a DD test. Its safety has been confirmed in US emergency departments, but retrospective European studies showed that it would lead to 5-7% of undiagnosed PE. Alternative strategies are needed to reduce the proportion of false-positive DD results.

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Hypoxia, a condition of insufficient oxygen availability to support metabolism, occurs when the vascular supply is interrupted, as in stroke. The identification of the hypoxic and viable tissue in stroke as compared with irreversible lesions (necrosis) has relevant implications for the treatment of ischemic stroke. Traditionally, imaging by positron emission tomography (PET), using 15O-based radiotracers, allowed the measurement of perfusion and oxygen extraction in stroke, providing important insights in its pathophysiology. However, these multitracer evaluations are of limited applicability in clinical settings. More recently, specific tracers have been developed, which accumulate with an inverse relationship to oxygen concentration and thus allow visualizing the hypoxic tissue non invasively. These belong to two main groups: nitroimidazoles, and among these the 18F-Fluoroimidazole (18F-FMISO) is the most widely used, and the copper-based tracers, represented mainly by Cu-ATSM. While these tracers have been at first developed and tested in order to image hypoxia in tumors, they have also shown promising results in stroke models and preliminary clinical studies in patients with cardiovascular disorders, allowing the detection of hypoxic tissue and the prediction of the extent of subsequent ischemia and clinical outcome. These tracers have therefore the potential to select an appropriate subgroup of patients who could benefit from a hypoxia-directed treatment and provide prognosis relevant imaging. The molecular imaging of hypoxia made important progress over the last decade and has a potential for integration into the diagnostic and therapeutic workup of patients with ischemic stroke.

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According to the hypothesis of Traub, also known as the 'formula of Traub', postmortem values of glucose and lactate found in the cerebrospinal fluid or vitreous humor are considered indicators of antemortem blood glucose levels. However, because the lactate concentration increases in the vitreous and cerebrospinal fluid after death, some authors postulated that using the sum value to estimate antemortem blood glucose levels could lead to an overestimation of the cases of glucose metabolic disorders with fatal outcomes, such as diabetic ketoacidosis. The aim of our study, performed on 470 consecutive forensic cases, was to ascertain the advantages of the sum value to estimate antemortem blood glucose concentrations and, consequently, to rule out fatal diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death. Other biochemical parameters, such as blood 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate, acetoacetate, acetone, glycated haemoglobin and urine glucose levels, were also determined. In addition, postmortem native CT scan, autopsy, histology, neuropathology and toxicology were performed to confirm diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death. According to our results, the sum value does not add any further information for the estimation of antemortem blood glucose concentration. The vitreous glucose concentration appears to be the most reliable marker to estimate antemortem hyperglycaemia and, along with the determination of other biochemical markers (such as blood acetone and 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate, urine glucose and glycated haemoglobin), to confirm diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death.

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Recently, morphometric measurements of the ascending aorta have been done with ECG-gated multidector computerized tomography (MDCT) to help the development of future novel transcatheter therapies (TCT); nevertheless, the variability of such measurements remains unknown. Thirty patients referred for ECG-gated CT thoracic angiography were evaluated. Continuous reformations of the ascending aorta, perpendicular to the centerline, were obtained automatically with a commercially available computer aided diagnosis (CAD). Then measurements of the maximal diameter were done with the CAD and manually by two observers (separately). Measurements were repeated one month later. The Bland-Altman method, Spearman coefficients, and a Wilcoxon signed-rank test were used to evaluate the variability, the correlation, and the differences between observers. The interobserver variability for maximal diameter between the two observers was up to 1.2 mm with limits of agreement [-1.5, +0.9] mm; whereas the intraobserver limits were [-1.2, +1.0] mm for the first observer and [-0.8, +0.8] mm for the second observer. The intraobserver CAD variability was 0.8 mm. The correlation was good between observers and the CAD (0.980-0.986); however, significant differences do exist (P<0.001). The maximum variability observed was 1.2 mm and should be considered in reports of measurements of the ascending aorta. The CAD is as reproducible as an experienced reader.

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CONTEXT: In populations of older adults, prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) events through traditional risk factors is less accurate than in middle-aged adults. Electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities are common in older adults and might be of value for CHD prediction. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether baseline ECG abnormalities or development of new and persistent ECG abnormalities are associated with increased CHD events. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A population-based study of 2192 white and black older adults aged 70 to 79 years from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (Health ABC Study) without known cardiovascular disease. Adjudicated CHD events were collected over 8 years between 1997-1998 and 2006-2007. Baseline and 4-year ECG abnormalities were classified according to the Minnesota Code as major and minor. Using Cox proportional hazards regression models, the addition of ECG abnormalities to traditional risk factors were examined to predict CHD events. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adjudicated CHD events (acute myocardial infarction [MI], CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization). RESULTS: At baseline, 276 participants (13%) had minor and 506 (23%) had major ECG abnormalities. During follow-up, 351 participants had CHD events (96 CHD deaths, 101 acute MIs, and 154 hospitalizations for angina or coronary revascularizations). Both baseline minor and major ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of CHD after adjustment for traditional risk factors (17.2 per 1000 person-years among those with no abnormalities; 29.3 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% CI, 1.02-1.81; for minor abnormalities; and 31.6 per 1000 person-years; HR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.20-1.90; for major abnormalities). When ECG abnormalities were added to a model containing traditional risk factors alone, 13.6% of intermediate-risk participants with both major and minor ECG abnormalities were correctly reclassified (overall net reclassification improvement [NRI], 7.4%; 95% CI, 3.1%-19.0%; integrated discrimination improvement, 0.99%; 95% CI, 0.32%-2.15%). After 4 years, 208 participants had new and 416 had persistent abnormalities. Both new and persistent ECG abnormalities were associated with an increased risk of subsequent CHD events (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.33-3.02; and HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.18-2.34; respectively). When added to the Framingham Risk Score, the NRI was not significant (5.7%; 95% CI, -0.4% to 11.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Major and minor ECG abnormalities among older adults were associated with an increased risk of CHD events. Depending on the model, adding ECG abnormalities was associated with improved risk prediction beyond traditional risk factors.

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Comment on: Prospective Studies Collaboration, Whitlock G, Lewington S et al. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. Lancet. 2009;373(9669):1083-96. PMID: 19299006.

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Prognosis of early breast cancer patients is significantly improved with the use of adjuvant therapies. Various guidelines have been proposed to select patients who will derive the most benefit from such treatments. However, classifications have limited usefulness in subsets of patients such as those with node negative breast cancer. The 2007 St. Paul de Vence Clinical Practice Recommendations proposed to consider adjuvant therapy in accordance with the 10-year relapse-free survival reduction estimated by Adjuvant! Online. However, many limitations remain regarding the use of Adjuvant! Online. Among them, adverse prognostic and/or predictive factors such as vascular invasion, mitotic activity, progesterone receptor negativity, and HER-2 expression are not incorporated in the routine clinical decision process. Our group has therefore issued guidelines based on the consideration of both Adjuvant! Online calculations and the prognostic and/or predictive effects of these markers. In addition, web-accessible comprehensive tables summarizing these recommendations are provided.

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This study aimed at identifying clinical factors for predicting hematologic toxicity after radioimmunotherapy with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan or (131)I-tositumomab in clinical practice. Hematologic data were available from 14 non-Hodgkin lymphoma patients treated with (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and 18 who received (131)I-tositumomab. The percentage baseline at nadir and 4 wk post nadir and the time to nadir were selected as the toxicity indicators for both platelets and neutrophils. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed to identify significant predictors (P < 0.05) of each indicator. For both platelets and neutrophils, pooled and separate analyses of (90)Y-ibritumomab tiuxetan and (131)I-tositumomab data yielded the time elapsed since the last chemotherapy as the only significant predictor of the percentage baseline at nadir. The extent of bone marrow involvement was not a significant factor in this study, possibly because of the short time elapsed since the last chemotherapy of the 7 patients with bone marrow involvement. Because both treatments were designed to deliver a comparable bone marrow dose, this factor also was not significant. None of the 14 factors considered was predictive of the time to nadir. The R(2) value for the model predicting percentage baseline at nadir was 0.60 for platelets and 0.40 for neutrophils. This model predicted the platelet and neutrophil toxicity grade to within ±1 for 28 and 30 of the 32 patients, respectively. For the 7 patients predicted with grade I thrombocytopenia, 6 of whom had actual grade I-II, dosing might be increased to improve treatment efficacy. The elapsed time since the last chemotherapy can be used to predict hematologic toxicity and customize the current dosing method in radioimmunotherapy.

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Current American Academy of Neurology (AAN) guidelines for outcome prediction in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest (CA) have been validated before the therapeutic hypothermia era (TH). We undertook this study to verify the prognostic value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in the TH setting. A total of 111 consecutive comatose survivors of CA treated with TH were prospectively studied over a 3-year period. Neurological examination, electroencephalography (EEG), and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) were performed immediately after TH, at normothermia and off sedation. Neurological recovery was assessed at 3 to 6 months, using Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Three clinical variables, assessed within 72 hours after CA, showed higher false-positive mortality predictions as compared with the AAN guidelines: incomplete brainstem reflexes recovery (4% vs 0%), myoclonus (7% vs 0%), and absent motor response to pain (24% vs 0%). Furthermore, unreactive EEG background was incompatible with good long-term neurological recovery (CPC 1-2) and strongly associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio for death, 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-71.9). The presence of at least 2 independent predictors out of 4 (incomplete brainstem reflexes, myoclonus, unreactive EEG, and absent cortical SSEP) accurately predicted poor long-term neurological recovery (positive predictive value = 1.00); EEG reactivity significantly improved the prognostication. Our data show that TH may modify outcome prediction after CA, implying that some clinical features should be interpreted with more caution in this setting as compared with the AAN guidelines. EEG background reactivity is useful in determining the prognosis after CA treated with TH.

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PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea is associated with significantly increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Fluid overload may promote obstructive sleep apnea in patients with ESRD through an overnight fluid shift from the legs to the neck soft tissues. Body fluid shift and severity of obstructive sleep apnea before and after hemodialysis were compared in patients with ESRD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Seventeen patients with hemodialysis and moderate to severe obstructive sleep apnea were included. Polysomnographies were performed the night before and after hemodialysis to assess obstructive sleep apnea, and bioimpedance was used to measure fluid overload and leg fluid volume. RESULTS: The mean overnight rostral fluid shift was 1.27±0.41 L prehemodialysis; it correlated positively with fluid overload volume (r=0.39; P=0.02) and was significantly lower posthemodialysis (0.78±0.38 L; P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the mean obstructive apnea-hypopnea index before and after hemodialysis (46.8±22.0 versus 42.1±18.6 per hour; P=0.21), but obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly lower posthemodialysis (-10.1±10.8 per hour) in the group of 12 patients, with a concomitant reduction of fluid overload compared with participants without change in fluid overload (obstructive apnea-hypopnea index +8.2±16.1 per hour; P<0.01). A lower fluid overload after hemodialysis was significantly correlated (r=0.49; P=0.04) with a lower obstructive apnea-hypopnea index. Fluid overload-assessed by bioimpedance-was the best predictor of the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index observed after hemodialysis (standardized r=-0.68; P=0.01) in multivariate regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Fluid overload influences overnight rostral fluid shift and obstructive sleep apnea severity in patients with ESRD undergoing intermittent hemodialysis. Although no benefit of hemodialysis on obstructive sleep apnea severity was observed in the whole group, the change in obstructive apnea-hypopnea index was significantly correlated with the change in fluid overload after hemodialysis. Moreover, the subgroup with lower fluid overload posthemodialysis showed a significantly lower obstructive sleep apnea severity, which provides a strong incentive to further study whether optimizing fluid status in patients with obstructive sleep apnea and ESRD will improve the obstructive apnea-hypopnea index.

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Despite a low positive predictive value, diagnostic tests such as complete blood count (CBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) are commonly used to evaluate whether infants with risk factors for early-onset neonatal sepsis (EOS) should be treated with antibiotics. We investigated the impact of implementing a protocol aiming at reducing the number of diagnostic tests in infants with risk factors for EOS in order to compare the diagnostic performance of repeated clinical examination with CBC and CRP measurement. The primary outcome was the time between birth and the first dose of antibiotics in infants treated for suspected EOS. Among the 11,503 infants born at ≥35 weeks during the study period, 222 were treated with antibiotics for suspected EOS. The proportion of infants receiving antibiotics for suspected EOS was 2.1% and 1.7% before and after the change of protocol (p = 0.09). Reduction of diagnostic tests was associated with earlier antibiotic treatment in infants treated for suspected EOS (hazard ratio 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20-2.07; p <0.001), and in infants with neonatal infection (hazard ratio 2.20; 95% CI 1.19-4.06; p = 0.01). There was no difference in the duration of hospital stay nor in the proportion of infants requiring respiratory or cardiovascular support before and after the change of protocol. Reduction of diagnostic tests such as CBC and CRP does not delay initiation of antibiotic treatment in infants with suspected EOS. The importance of clinical examination in infants with risk factors for EOS should be emphasised.

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AIM: To confirm the accuracy of sentinel node biopsy (SNB) procedure and its morbidity, and to investigate predictive factors for SN status and prognostic factors for disease-free survival (DFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between October 1997 and December 2004, 327 consecutive patients in one centre with clinically node-negative primary skin melanoma underwent an SNB by the triple technique, i.e. lymphoscintigraphy, blue-dye and gamma-probe. Multivariate logistic regression analyses as well as the Kaplan-Meier were performed. RESULTS: Twenty-three percent of the patients had at least one metastatic SN, which was significantly associated with Breslow thickness (p<0.001). The success rate of SNB was 99.1% and its morbidity was 7.6%. With a median follow-up of 33 months, the 5-year DFS/DSS were 43%/49% for patients with positive SN and 83.5%/87.4% for patients with negative SN, respectively. The false-negative rate of SNB was 8.6% and sensitivity 91.4%. On multivariate analysis, DFS was significantly worsened by Breslow thickness (RR=5.6, p<0.001), positive SN (RR=5.0, p<0.001) and male sex (RR=2.9, p=0.001). The presence of a metastatic SN (RR=8.4, p<0.001), male sex (RR=6.1, p<0.001), Breslow thickness (RR=3.2, p=0.013) and ulceration (RR=2.6, p=0.015) were significantly associated with a poorer DSS. CONCLUSION: SNB is a reliable procedure with high sensitivity (91.4%) and low morbidity. Breslow thickness was the only statistically significant parameter predictive of SN status. DFS was worsened in decreasing order by Breslow thickness, metastatic SN and male gender. Similarly DSS was significantly worsened by a metastatic SN, male gender, Breslow thickness and ulceration. These data reinforce the SN status as a powerful staging procedure

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PURPOSE: To determine the value of applying finger trap distraction during direct MR arthrography of the wrist to assess intrinsic ligament and triangular fibrocartilage complex (TFCC) tears. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Twenty consecutive patients were prospectively investigated by three-compartment wrist MR arthrography. Imaging was performed with 3-T scanners using a three-dimensional isotropic (0.4 mm) T1-weighted gradient-recalled echo sequence, with and without finger trap distraction (4 kg). In a blind and independent fashion, two musculoskeletal radiologists measured the width of the scapholunate (SL), lunotriquetral (LT) and ulna-TFC (UTFC) joint spaces. They evaluated the amount of contrast medium within these spaces using a four-point scale, and assessed SL, LT and TFCC tears, as well as the disruption of Gilula's carpal arcs. RESULTS: With finger trap distraction, both readers found a significant increase in width of the SL space (mean Δ = +0.1mm, p ≤ 0.040), and noticed more contrast medium therein (p ≤ 0.035). In contrast, the differences in width of the LT (mean Δ = +0.1 mm, p ≥ 0.057) and UTFC (mean Δ = 0mm, p ≥ 0.728) spaces, as well as the amount of contrast material within these spaces were not statistically significant (p = 0.607 and ≥ 0.157, respectively). Both readers detected more SL (Δ = +1, p = 0.157) and LT (Δ = +2, p = 0.223) tears, although statistical significance was not reached, and Gilula's carpal arcs were more frequently disrupted during finger trap distraction (Δ = +5, p = 0.025). CONCLUSION: The application of finger trap distraction during direct wrist MR arthrography may enhance both detection and characterisation of SL and LT ligament tears by widening the SL space and increasing the amount of contrast within the SL and LT joint spaces.