Toxic substances in blood: an analysis of current recommendations under a Bayesian (decision) approach

This article extends existing discussion in literature on probabilistic inference and decision making with respect to continuous hypotheses that are prevalent in forensic toxicology. As a main aim, this research investigates the properties of a widely followed approach for quantifying the level of toxic substances in blood samples, and to compare this procedure with a Bayesian probabilistic approach. As an example, attention is confined to the presence of toxic substances, such as THC, in blood from car drivers. In this context, the interpretation of results from laboratory analyses needs to take into account legal requirements for establishing the 'presence' of target substances in blood. In a first part, the performance of the proposed Bayesian model for the estimation of an unknown parameter (here, the amount of a toxic substance) is illustrated and compared with the currently used method. The model is then used in a second part to approach-in a rational way-the decision component of the problem, that is judicial questions of the kind 'Is the quantity of THC measured in the blood over the legal threshold of 1.5 μg/l?'. This is pointed out through a practical example.

Myocardial blood flow quantification by Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT: A detailed reproducibility study between two semi-automatic analysis programs.

BACKGROUND: Several analysis software packages for myocardial blood flow (MBF) quantification from cardiac PET studies exist, but they have not been compared using concordance analysis, which can characterize precision and bias separately. Reproducible measurements are needed for quantification to fully develop its clinical potential. METHODS: Fifty-one patients underwent dynamic Rb-82 PET at rest and during adenosine stress. Data were processed with PMOD and FlowQuant (Lortie model). MBF and myocardial flow reserve (MFR) polar maps were quantified and analyzed using a 17-segment model. Comparisons used Pearson's correlation ρ (measuring precision), Bland and Altman limit-of-agreement and Lin's concordance correlation ρc = ρ·C b (C b measuring systematic bias). RESULTS: Lin's concordance and Pearson's correlation values were very similar, suggesting no systematic bias between software packages with an excellent precision ρ for MBF (ρ = 0.97, ρc = 0.96, C b = 0.99) and good precision for MFR (ρ = 0.83, ρc = 0.76, C b = 0.92). On a per-segment basis, no mean bias was observed on Bland-Altman plots, although PMOD provided slightly higher values than FlowQuant at higher MBF and MFR values (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Concordance between software packages was excellent for MBF and MFR, despite higher values by PMOD at higher MBF values. Both software packages can be used interchangeably for quantification in daily practice of Rb-82 cardiac PET.

The occurrence of intra-operative hypotension varies between hospitals: observational analysis of more than 147,000 anaesthesia.

BACKGROUND: Hypotension, a common intra-operative incident, bears an important potential for morbidity. It is most often manageable and sometimes preventable, which renders its study important. Therefore, we aimed at examining hospital variations in the occurrence of intra-operative hypotension and its predictors. As secondary endpoints, we determined to what extent hypotension relates to the risk of post-operative incidents and death. METHODS: We used the Anaesthesia Databank Switzerland, built on routinely and prospectively collected data on all anaesthesias in 21 hospitals. The three outcomes were assessed using multi-level logistic regression models. RESULTS: Among 147,573 anaesthesias, hypotension ranged from 0.6% to 5.2% in participating hospitals, and from 0.3% up to 12% in different surgical specialties. Most (73.4%) were minor single events. Age, ASA status, combined general and regional anaesthesia techniques, duration of surgery and hospitalization were significantly associated with hypotension. Although significantly associated, the emergency status of the surgery had a weaker effect. Hospitals' odds ratios for hypotension varied between 0.12 and 2.50 (P < or = 0.001), even after adjusting for patient and anaesthesia factors, and for type of surgery. At least one post-operative incident occurred in 9.7% of the procedures, including 0.03% deaths. Intra-operative hypotension was associated with a higher risk of post-operative incidents and death. CONCLUSION: Wide variations remain in the occurrence of hypotension among hospitals after adjustment for risk factors. Although differential reporting from hospitals may exist, variations in anaesthesia techniques and blood pressure maintenance may also have contributed. Intra-operative hypotension is associated with morbidities and sometimes death, and constant vigilance must thus be advocated.

A novel gene expression signature in peripheral blood mononuclear cells for early detection of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Early detection and treatment of colorectal adenomatous polyps (AP) and colorectal cancer (CRC) is associated with decreased mortality for CRC. However, accurate, non-invasive and compliant tests to screen for AP and early stages of CRC are not yet available. A blood-based screening test is highly attractive due to limited invasiveness and high acceptance rate among patients. AIM: To demonstrate whether gene expression signatures in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were able to detect the presence of AP and early stages CRC. METHODS: A total of 85 PBMC samples derived from colonoscopy-verified subjects without lesion (controls) (n = 41), with AP (n = 21) or with CRC (n = 23) were used as training sets. A 42-gene panel for CRC and AP discrimination, including genes identified by Digital Gene Expression-tag profiling of PBMC, and genes previously characterised and reported in the literature, was validated on the training set by qPCR. Logistic regression analysis followed by bootstrap validation determined CRC- and AP-specific classifiers, which discriminate patients with CRC and AP from controls. RESULTS: The CRC and AP classifiers were able to detect CRC with a sensitivity of 78% and AP with a sensitivity of 46% respectively. Both classifiers had a specificity of 92% with very low false-positive detection when applied on subjects with inflammatory bowel disease (n = 23) or tumours other than CRC (n = 14). CONCLUSION: This pilot study demonstrates the potential of developing a minimally invasive, accurate test to screen patients at average risk for colorectal cancer, based on gene expression analysis of peripheral blood mononuclear cells obtained from a simple blood sample.

Is the formula of Traub still up to date in antemortem blood glucose level estimation?

According to the hypothesis of Traub, also known as the 'formula of Traub', postmortem values of glucose and lactate found in the cerebrospinal fluid or vitreous humor are considered indicators of antemortem blood glucose levels. However, because the lactate concentration increases in the vitreous and cerebrospinal fluid after death, some authors postulated that using the sum value to estimate antemortem blood glucose levels could lead to an overestimation of the cases of glucose metabolic disorders with fatal outcomes, such as diabetic ketoacidosis. The aim of our study, performed on 470 consecutive forensic cases, was to ascertain the advantages of the sum value to estimate antemortem blood glucose concentrations and, consequently, to rule out fatal diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death. Other biochemical parameters, such as blood 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate, acetoacetate, acetone, glycated haemoglobin and urine glucose levels, were also determined. In addition, postmortem native CT scan, autopsy, histology, neuropathology and toxicology were performed to confirm diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death. According to our results, the sum value does not add any further information for the estimation of antemortem blood glucose concentration. The vitreous glucose concentration appears to be the most reliable marker to estimate antemortem hyperglycaemia and, along with the determination of other biochemical markers (such as blood acetone and 3-beta-hydroxybutyrate, urine glucose and glycated haemoglobin), to confirm diabetic ketoacidosis as the cause of death.

Statin use and peripheral blood progenitor cells mobilization in patients with multiple myeloma.

PURPOSE: Statins have beneficial effects in patients after myocardial infarction and at least part of the benefit results from mobilization of marrow endothelial progenitors to repopulate damaged myocardial tissues. This study examines if statins may have the same effect in mobilizing marrow progenitors to be harvested and subsequently used in high-dose chemotherapy with progenitor cell rescue in multiple myeloma. METHODS: From 2006 to 2012, 86 patients with multiple myeloma were mobilized with the use of G-CSF and were retrospectively analyzed. Patients with other malignancies or mobilized with the use of chemotherapy or with plerixafor were excluded. RESULTS: The median age of the patients was 60 years. 72 patients had received one line of chemotherapy and 14 patients two or more lines of chemotherapy. Twenty patients were taking statins at the time of the harvest while 66 patients were not. In the group of patients taking statins the success rate of first leukapheresis (obtaining the target number of 4 × 10(6) CD34+ cells/kg) was 85 % while in the group not taking statins this rate was 63.6 %. Despite the comparatively small number of patients this difference approached statistical significance (χ (2) = 0.07). CONCLUSION: This retrospective analysis of 86 patients shows for the first time a possible benefit of statins for peripheral blood progenitor cells mobilization in patients with multiple myeloma. Larger studies would be required to clarify the issue. If their effectiveness is confirmed, statins could be a safe and cheaper addition to chemotherapy and plerixafor for peripheral hematopoietic stem cell mobilization.

Inflammatory markers and blood pressure: sex differences and the effect of fat mass in the CoLaus Study.

Several studies have reported high levels of inflammatory biomarkers in hypertension, but data coming from the general population are sparse, and sex differences have been little explored. The CoLaus Study is a cross-sectional examination survey in a random sample of 6067 Caucasians aged 35-75 years in Lausanne, Switzerland. Blood pressure (BP) was assessed using a validated oscillometric device. Anthropometric parameters were also measured, including body composition, using electrical bioimpedance. Crude serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) and ultrasensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were positively and IL-1β (IL-1β) negatively (P<0.001 for all values), associated with BP. For IL-6, IL-1β and TNF-α, the association disappeared in multivariable analysis, largely explained by differences in age and body mass index, in particular fat mass. On the contrary, hsCRP remained independently and positively associated with systolic (β (95% confidence interval): 1.15 (0.64; 1.65); P<0.001) and diastolic (0.75 (0.42; 1.08); P<0.001) BP. Relationships of hsCRP, IL-6 and TNF-α with BP tended to be stronger in women than in men, partly related to the difference in fat mass, yet the interaction between sex and IL-6 persisted after correction for all tested confounders. In the general population, the associations between inflammatory biomarkers and rising levels of BP are mainly driven by age and fat mass. The stronger associations in women suggest that sex differences might exist in the complex interplay between BP and inflammation.

Novel loci for adiponectin levels and their influence on type 2 diabetes and metabolic traits: a multi-ethnic meta-analysis of 45,891 individuals.

Circulating levels of adiponectin, a hormone produced predominantly by adipocytes, are highly heritable and are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) and other metabolic traits. We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in 39,883 individuals of European ancestry to identify genes associated with metabolic disease. We identified 8 novel loci associated with adiponectin levels and confirmed 2 previously reported loci (P = 4.5×10(-8)-1.2×10(-43)). Using a novel method to combine data across ethnicities (N = 4,232 African Americans, N = 1,776 Asians, and N = 29,347 Europeans), we identified two additional novel loci. Expression analyses of 436 human adipocyte samples revealed that mRNA levels of 18 genes at candidate regions were associated with adiponectin concentrations after accounting for multiple testing (p<3×10(-4)). We next developed a multi-SNP genotypic risk score to test the association of adiponectin decreasing risk alleles on metabolic traits and diseases using consortia-level meta-analytic data. This risk score was associated with increased risk of T2D (p = 4.3×10(-3), n = 22,044), increased triglycerides (p = 2.6×10(-14), n = 93,440), increased waist-to-hip ratio (p = 1.8×10(-5), n = 77,167), increased glucose two hours post oral glucose tolerance testing (p = 4.4×10(-3), n = 15,234), increased fasting insulin (p = 0.015, n = 48,238), but with lower in HDL-cholesterol concentrations (p = 4.5×10(-13), n = 96,748) and decreased BMI (p = 1.4×10(-4), n = 121,335). These findings identify novel genetic determinants of adiponectin levels, which, taken together, influence risk of T2D and markers of insulin resistance.

Obesity markers and blood pressure in a sample of Portuguese children and adolescents.

Little information exists regarding the effect of several obesity markers on blood pressure (BP) levels in youth. Transverse study including 2494 boys and 2589 girls. Height, weight and waist were measured according to the international criteria and body fat (BF) by bioimpedance. BP was measured by an automated device. Hypertension was defined using sex-specific, age-specific and height-specific observation-points. Body mass index (BMI) and waist were positively related with systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and heart rate in both sexes, whereas the relationships with BF were less consistent. Stepwise linear regression analysis showed that BMI was positively related with SBP and DBP in both sexes, whereas BF was negatively related with SBP in both sexes and with heart rate in boys only; finally, waist was positively related with SBP in boys and heart rate in girls. Age and heart rate-adjusted values of SBP and DBP increased with BMI: for SBP, 117+/-1, 123+/-1 and 124+/-1 mmHg in normal, overweight and obese boys, respectively; corresponding values for girls were 111+/-1, 114+/-1 and 116+/-2 mmHg (mean+/-SE, P<0.001). Overweight and obese boys had an odds ratio for being hypertensive of 2.26 (95% confidence interval: 1.79-2.86) and 3.36 (2.32-4.87), respectively; corresponding values for girls were 1.58 (confidence interval 1.25-1.99) and 2.31 (1.53-3.50). BMI, not BF or waist, is consistently and independently related to BP levels in children; overweight and obesity considerably increase the risk of hypertension.

Blood pressure loci identified with a gene-centric array.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Previous studies have identified 47 distinct genetic variants robustly associated with BP, but collectively these explain only a few percent of the heritability for BP phenotypes. To find additional BP loci, we used a bespoke gene-centric array to genotype an independent discovery sample of 25,118 individuals that combined hypertensive case-control and general population samples. We followed up four SNPs associated with BP at our p < 8.56 × 10(-7) study-specific significance threshold and six suggestively associated SNPs in a further 59,349 individuals. We identified and replicated a SNP at LSP1/TNNT3, a SNP at MTHFR-NPPB independent (r(2) = 0.33) of previous reports, and replicated SNPs at AGT and ATP2B1 reported previously. An analysis of combined discovery and follow-up data identified SNPs significantly associated with BP at p < 8.56 × 10(-7) at four further loci (NPR3, HFE, NOS3, and SOX6). The high number of discoveries made with modest genotyping effort can be attributed to using a large-scale yet targeted genotyping array and to the development of a weighting scheme that maximized power when meta-analyzing results from samples ascertained with extreme phenotypes, in combination with results from nonascertained or population samples. Chromatin immunoprecipitation and transcript expression data highlight potential gene regulatory mechanisms at the MTHFR and NOS3 loci. These results provide candidates for further study to help dissect mechanisms affecting BP and highlight the utility of studying SNPs and samples that are independent of those studied previously even when the sample size is smaller than that in previous studies.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of heart failure events: an individual participant data analysis from 6 prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for the diagnosis and management of heart failure recommend investigating exacerbating conditions such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying the impact of different thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels. Limited prospective data exist on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and heart failure events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of heart failure events. Individual data on 25 390 participants with 216 248 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH of 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L, and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH <0.45 mIU/L, the last two with normal free thyroxine levels. Among 25 390 participants, 2068 (8.1%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 648 (2.6%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels (P for quadratic pattern <0.01); the hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.26) for TSH of 4.5 to 6.9 mIU/L, 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-3.23) for TSH of 7.0 to 9.9 mIU/L, 1.86 (95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.72) for TSH of 10.0 to 19.9 mIU/L (P for trend <0.01) and 1.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.95) for TSH of 0.10 to 0.44 mIU/L and 1.94 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.72) for TSH <0.10 mIU/L (P for trend=0.047). Risks remained similar after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels, particularly for TSH ≥10 and <0.10 mIU/L.

Genome-wide meta-analysis for serum calcium identifies significantly associated SNPs near the calcium-sensing receptor (CASR) gene.

Calcium has a pivotal role in biological functions, and serum calcium levels have been associated with numerous disorders of bone and mineral metabolism, as well as with cardiovascular mortality. Here we report results from a genome-wide association study of serum calcium, integrating data from four independent cohorts including a total of 12,865 individuals of European and Indian Asian descent. Our meta-analysis shows that serum calcium is associated with SNPs in or near the calcium-sensing receptor (CASR) gene on 3q13. The top hit with a p-value of 6.3 x 10(-37) is rs1801725, a missense variant, explaining 1.26% of the variance in serum calcium. This SNP had the strongest association in individuals of European descent, while for individuals of Indian Asian descent the top hit was rs17251221 (p = 1.1 x 10(-21)), a SNP in strong linkage disequilibrium with rs1801725. The strongest locus in CASR was shown to replicate in an independent Icelandic cohort of 4,126 individuals (p = 1.02 x 10(-4)). This genome-wide meta-analysis shows that common CASR variants modulate serum calcium levels in the adult general population, which confirms previous results in some candidate gene studies of the CASR locus. This study highlights the key role of CASR in calcium regulation.

Genome-wide profiling of blood pressure in adults and children.

Hypertension is an important determinant of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and has a substantial heritability, which is likely of polygenic origin. The aim of this study was to assess to what extent multiple common genetic variants contribute to blood pressure regulation in both adults and children and to assess overlap in variants between different age groups, using genome-wide profiling. Single nucleotide polymorphism sets were defined based on a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies on systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure performed by the Cohort for Heart and Aging Research in Genome Epidemiology (n=29 136), using different P value thresholds for selecting single nucleotide polymorphisms. Subsequently, genetic risk scores for systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure were calculated in an independent adult population (n=2072) and a child population (n=1034). The explained variance of the genetic risk scores was evaluated using linear regression models, including sex, age, and body mass index. Genetic risk scores, including also many nongenome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms, explained more of the variance than scores based only on very significant single nucleotide polymorphisms in adults and children. Genetic risk scores significantly explained ≤1.2% (P=9.6*10(-8)) of the variance in adult systolic blood pressure and 0.8% (P=0.004) in children. For diastolic blood pressure, the variance explained was similar in adults and children (1.7% [P=8.9*10(-10)] and 1.4% [P=3.3*10(-5)], respectively). These findings suggest the presence of many genetic loci with small effects on blood pressure regulation both in adults and children, indicating also a (partly) common polygenic regulation of blood pressure throughout different periods of life.

Interactions of dietary whole-grain intake with fasting glucose- and insulin-related genetic loci in individuals of European descent: a meta-analysis of 14 cohort studies.

Whole-grain foods are touted for multiple health benefits, including enhancing insulin sensitivity and reducing type 2 diabetes risk. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with fasting glucose and insulin concentrations in individuals free of diabetes. We tested the hypothesis that whole-grain food intake and genetic variation interact to influence concentrations of fasting glucose and insulin. Via meta-analysis of data from 14 cohorts comprising ∼ 48,000 participants of European descent, we studied interactions of whole-grain intake with loci previously associated in GWAS with fasting glucose (16 loci) and/or insulin (2 loci) concentrations. For tests of interaction, we considered a P value <0.0028 (0.05 of 18 tests) as statistically significant. Greater whole-grain food intake was associated with lower fasting glucose and insulin concentrations independent of demographics, other dietary and lifestyle factors, and BMI (β [95% CI] per 1-serving-greater whole-grain intake: -0.009 mmol/l glucose [-0.013 to -0.005], P < 0.0001 and -0.011 pmol/l [ln] insulin [-0.015 to -0.007], P = 0.0003). No interactions met our multiple testing-adjusted statistical significance threshold. The strongest SNP interaction with whole-grain intake was rs780094 (GCKR) for fasting insulin (P = 0.006), where greater whole-grain intake was associated with a smaller reduction in fasting insulin concentrations in those with the insulin-raising allele. Our results support the favorable association of whole-grain intake with fasting glucose and insulin and suggest a potential interaction between variation in GCKR and whole-grain intake in influencing fasting insulin concentrations.

Meta-analysis identifies multiple loci associated with kidney function-related traits in east Asian populations.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD), impairment of kidney function, is a serious public health problem, and the assessment of genetic factors influencing kidney function has substantial clinical relevance. Here, we report a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for kidney function-related traits, including 71,149 east Asian individuals from 18 studies in 11 population-, hospital- or family-based cohorts, conducted as part of the Asian Genetic Epidemiology Network (AGEN). Our meta-analysis identified 17 loci newly associated with kidney function-related traits, including the concentrations of blood urea nitrogen, uric acid and serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate based on serum creatinine levels (eGFRcrea) (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)). We further examined these loci with in silico replication in individuals of European ancestry from the KidneyGen, CKDGen and GUGC consortia, including a combined total of ∼110,347 individuals. We identify pleiotropic associations among these loci with kidney function-related traits and risk of CKD. These findings provide new insights into the genetics of kidney function.