Ecological niche modeling and geographical distribution of pollinator and plants: A case study of Peponapis fervens (Smith, 1879) (Eucerini: Apidae) and Cucurbita species (Cucurbitaceae)

The bees of the Peponapes genus (Eucerini, Apidae) have a Neotropical distribution with the center of species diversity located in Mexico and are specialized in Cucurbita plants. which have many species of economic importance. such as squashes and pumpkins Peponapis fervens is the only species of the genus known from southern South America The Cucurbita species occurring in the same area as P fervens Include four domesticated species (C ficifolia, C maxima maxima, C moschata and C pepo) and one non-domesticated species (Cucurbita maxima andreana) It was suggested that C. in andreana was the original pollen source to P fervens, and this bee expanded its geographical range due to the domestication of Cucurbita The potential geographical areas of these species were determined and compared using ecological niche modeling that was performed with the computational system openModeller and GARP with best subsets algorithm The climatic variables obtained through modeling were compared using Cluster Analysis Results show that the potential areas of domesticated species practically spread all over South America The potential area of P fervens Includes the areas of C m andreana but reaches a larger area, where the domesticated species of Cucurbita also Occur The Cluster Analysis shows a high climatic similarity between P fervens and C. m. andreana Nevertheless. P fervens presents the ability to occupy areas with wider ranges of climatic variables and to exploit resources provided by domesticated species (C) 2009 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Ecological niche modeling and principal component analysis of Krameria Loefl. (Krameriaceae)

Krameria plants are found in arid regions of the Americas and present a floral system that attracts oil-collecting bees. Niche modeling and multivariate tools were applied to examine ecological and geographical aspects of the 18 species of this genus, using occurrence data obtained from herbaria and literature. Niche modeling showed the potential areas of occurrence for each species and the analysis of climatic variables suggested that North American species occur mostly in deserted or xeric ecoregions with monthly precipitation below 140 mm and large temperature ranges. South American species are mainly found in deserted ecoregions and subtropical savannas where monthly precipitation often exceeds 150 mm and temperature ranges are smaller. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) performed with values of temperature and precipitation showed that the distribution limits of Krameria species are primarily associated with maximum and minimum temperatures. Modeling of Krameria species proved to be a useful tool for analyzing the influence of the ecological niche variables in the geographical distribution of species, providing new information to guide future investigations. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological niche similarities of Peponapis bees and non-domesticated Cucurbita species

Peponapis bees are considered specialized pollinators of Cucurbita flowers, a genus that presents several species of economic value (squashes and pumpkins). Both genera originated in the Americas, and their diversity dispersion center is in Mexico. Ten species of Peponapis and ten species of Cucurbita (only non-domesticated species) were analyzed considering the similarity of their ecological niche characteristics with respect to climatic conditions of their occurrence areas (abiotic variables) and interactions between species (biotic variables). The similarity of climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation) was estimated through cluster analyses. The areas of potential occurrence of the most similar species were obtained through ecological niche modeling and summed with geographic information system tools. Three main clusters were obtained: one with species that shared potential occurrence areas mainly in deserts (P. pruinosa, P. timberlakei, C. digitata, C. palmata, C. foetidissima), another in moist forests (P. limitaris, P. atrata, C. lundelliana, C. o. martinezii) and a third mainly in dry forests (C. a. sororia, C. radicans, C. pedatifolia, P. azteca, P. smithi, P. crassidentata, P. utahensis). Some species with similar ecological niche presented potential shared areas that are also similar to their geographical distribution, like those occurring predominantly on deserts. However, some clustered species presented larger geographical areas, such as P. pruinosa and C. foetidissima suggesting other drivers than climatic conditions to shape their distributions. The domestication of Cucurbita and also the natural history of both genera were considered also as important factors. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species` sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.